MAFIA 92 - The return of the Witchfinder General [GAME THREAD]

[SpiritoftheRadio]

I am okay with waiting for food, I just went into this day thinking this was going to be an easy choice :.(

[SpiritoftheRadio]

I'm going to leave my end vote, because I only see this going two ways, food switches to me and we lose, or if worecj really won't move, we can kill him I guess. Its better than a tie where we would just have food die and then wait a day and then worecj and bozo kill me.

[foodcoats]

So I think the sensible thing to do to give worcej’s view a fair shake is to review the isos and voting habits of dip, brain, bozo, and spirit, and assign scum and town points, and also assign positive and negative correlation points. Maybe I’ll hit a gold nugget that deserves special attention.

This sounds tedious but here we go.

[foodcoats]

I am third party

Does that one work the same way damo?

I'm third party too ;}

I am a supporter of worcej's plan to arbitrarily eliminate ghug.

##VOTE ghug

bozo is paired with will for pinning this wagon on ghug
or possibly paired with me

Dip claims he is third party with brain and maybe scum paired with bozo. Weird.

1 correlation point for bozo

[foodcoats]

##vote worcej

##vote worcej

Seeing this linkage between dip and brain we must ask where bozo and spirit were. Bozo jumped on red around the same time. Spirit had been sat on red for an hour. From a correlation perspective, I expect the third scum to be on a different wagon, and we know the dip wagon ended all town. So…

Bozo and spirit both get a correlation point. 2-1 bozo.

[foodcoats]

-----------------------------Most town vibes
DiplomacyandWarfare
JustAGuyNamedWill
kingofthepirates
N.D.
Brainbomb
BunnyGo
damo666
miminena
Ghug
DemonRHK
-------------------------------least town vibes

non-posters:
Red Neurax
Foodcoats
bozo
Vecna

Oh and because I just saw Spirit's post above. How do you give a 'least town vibe' to people who haven't posted yet? That isn't reasonable.

I dont know what to think here. I think spirits post was semi serious? and ND's post is actually a pretty good point.

and why on earth is dip and war so ridiculously high up on the town vibes there?

@Spirit? any reason for this list or was this just taking the piss

So this is standing out to me because further up in brain’s iso he interacts with bozo differently. This message to spirit sounds like a soft ball. Whereas when he interacts with bozo he sounds like he is thinking of reasons to scumread bozo. And here it’s like… coaching spirit to clarify his thoughts, IN PARTICULAR with respect to Dip!

1 correlation point for spirit. All tied at 2.

[foodcoats]

Are you implying that I would do that as the 3P?

It could be your way of trying to see helpful as opposed to actually needing to know. Because maybe you already know

I don't know, and I was more interested in hearing speculation on the answer than finding out the answer.

This strikes me as townie way of thinking from bozo in reply to brain. One town point for bozo, which is a negative point I guess. Spirit leads 2-1.

[foodcoats]

Just/DiplomacyandWarfare/ghug does seem like an outside possibility though, Just and DiplomacyandWarfare both made unusual comments about the ghug wagon after participating in it.

This post sounds extremely suspicious now that we know all alignments.

Scum point bozo. Tied at 2 again.

[foodcoats]

Why do you have a townread on miminena?

I believe their early posting was slightly towny because they seemed to want to help town and had an eagerness to play which i see in newere players

will and dip facing off early, knowing the best money is on one of you two getting day oned. prolly both nervous town, but I'd be betting on you if I were the guy

This sounds townie to me because spirit isn’t speculating about who is scum, just who is going to die, which is really silly. Town point spirit.

Bozo leads 2-1.

[foodcoats]

@Spirit I’d like you to say

“I am town”

no, i dont think i will

I purposefully dodge the question to see who would join my wagon since I'd be an easy target. Once ghug voted me and ND started posturing at me without using my name, I just sat back and waited to see who would join the wagon. Out of the people, floodcoats seems the least legit

##vote floodcoats

Read his posts, he comes off as way too opportunistic and jumped on me when he saw the wind blow towards me since ghug, bb, and ND are usually good at getting sway with people. I dont think ghug or bb will be on me for long anyway and were doing a similar thing that I was, and I think we caught floodcoats. Mimi is new, I don't think this is as clear cut with them, they're just lie detector pilled like will, I think.

It should also be noted that I've made scannable statements saying im VT and warlock if people really wanted to, but I know what I am and no one is wasting a lie detector on me. Nor is there even a confirmed lie detector in the game. Like if people really want me to, I'll make the statement, but rn every impulse in my body says I need to old man captain america this for petty reasons

This is such a hare brained trap to lay that it really strikes me as town getting all wound up.

Bozo leads 2-0.

I’m starting to see an issue with correlation points being different from town/scum points and volume of posting creating an issue also, but we’ll forge ahead for now.

[foodcoats]

I think if Dip is mafia, SPirit fits well as his partner

But I’m getting ahead of myself

Dip’s posting is just generally more passive and less aggressive in the sense that he isn’t seeming to actively solve. He just picks and chooses things to comment on and slide by

The only thing I saw from him that counters this was the very first 2 pages of the game in which after he declares a scumread on me, he barely even talks about me at all. Doesn’t change his read based on future posting etc etc

i know i am not the most cultured poster, but I probably wouldn't put my mafia partner as my top town right away. I dont really understand the dipandwar argument and besides you he is the other person who gets killed day 1 a lot in this game, so his wagon is immediately sus

Oh I don’t like this given Dip flipped scum and the other conversations about spirit’s list.

2-1 bozo…

[foodcoats]

At this point, I'd kill foodcoats or damo or bozo or ghug or bb, I can see getting decent info out of all of them besides bozo, but bozos posts seem sus and not like him

Scum point for scumreading bozo but preferring lots of other candidates.

2-2 again.

[foodcoats]

Brainbomb - We're both 100% VT's and its getting to us. I have been wrong about him before, but I think this time he is wrong about me.

Worlds largest hedge

I’d like you to explain a few things

How did you become so confident in Brain town?

Why do you believe I am tunneled? Do you disagree with my points about Dip’s playstyle being different than his normal game?

Also how do you feel the EOD wagons affect your reads? I dont really see much from here

More specifically, Spirit is confident that brainbomb is a VT. One role in particular could know this for sure - Witch, the 3p

I… Don’t think dip 3Ps his scum partner. Feels… off. Negative correlation for spirit.

2-1 bozo leads.

[foodcoats]

vibes

worecj - yeah town, but also isn't he the guy who would do that and then end up being mafia? I'm going to sit on my hands until day 5 when I repeat this argument, you all kill me and then go after him. My honest take when reading EoD was that I would have switched to him as a wagon, but also if ifs and buts could be candy and nuts, we'd all have a merry christmas

Dipandwar - He's totally scrambling in a way only a towny does. He's more freaked now than he was day 1, folks need to get over this.

Will - tbh I read him as town and he's tunneling. I'd be impressed if this was his mafia game but also he is supposed to be pretty good. Slight town.

Foodcoats - My fav choice for death, I think I got him trying to push a wagon he didn't care about on me, and he continues to not care about it.

Brainbomb - We're both 100% VT's and its getting to us. I have been wrong about him before, but I think this time he is wrong about me.

ND - He's a coin flip, only thing he did all day which can be judged, to me, is switching to red, could be self pres. I dont care about him, I've established he is a black hole of bullshit, let's move on

Mimi - I've gone back and forth silently a couple times, being a new player I felt they were mostly town in the beginning but the way they keep shifting their vote as kind of a follower trying to bring around pressure and hedging (something like: I'll move my vote as soon as I get an answer) doesn't feel right. But also new person, so I gotta given it some bandwidth, most malleable read going forward.

Vecna - He lurking, but less than normal? I feel like he feels town but I don't have a good scope of what mafia him looks like. Slight town for now.

KingofPirates - I just like his vibe, pretty high in town rankings for me, he analysis feels genuine and I voted along with him on red in spite of foodcoats being on it too because I bought the vibe of him.

damo - guy I have a hard time reading, and usually scum read in isolation. Kind of null on him this game. Which probably leans town when I throw away my bias

bozo - felt off this game, I normally agree with most of the things he says, and now it feels like he is not being his normal self. I can't tell if its that he showed up late and is just going through the motions or not, but I have scum vibes

Bunny - I usually read him as scum, isolating for bias i think he is coming off more towny this game but also hasnt done anything of note besides throw up a vote on dip and staying there, he didn't like dip theorizing about will and bozo ganging up on ghug? yeah but theyre also the two guys who sling every possibility out there and try and make sense of it. Filtering my bias, slight town, def in character

Ghug and RHK - They have nothing to link them, I just feel the same way about them, generally reading them as more scummy then usual, respecting their game enough to think they'd be doing more normally. Ghug was poking me and ND for wagon potential early, ghug does that as town and scum to see who takes the bait, but the dip and worecj votes I don't buy a town ghug doing as much. The vote for worcej with the "i think he's town though" is either the kind of thing scum ghug does or is a bridge too far for town ghug to do in order to increase his plausible bandwidth of town behavior for future scum games where I think he deserves to die for it. RHK's votes all screamed like of conviction and gives off the vibe of someone going throw the motions to seem active enough to not draw suspicion but has no desire to contribute in any meaningful way to the game. I could see this as a mafia trying to end up where other mafia aren't when the hammer comes down or a 3rd party who is just trying to fly under the radar. I usually don't see rhk as scummy, but he has been since the get go for me. I think one of ghug or rhk is probably the last of the 3 mafia between them. Maybe one is mafia, one is 3rd party.

Tl;dr: a fair bit of town reads, besides mimi and ND who are coin flips, foodcoats and bozo are probably scum, ghug and rhk are my picks for 3rd scum or 3rd party. If worcej lives a long time, he is probably a sly 3rd scum tho

Even though this is essentially concluding the opposite from the same evidence, it IS really weird that spirit specifically calls brain VT.

Weird correlation…

2-2 again.

[foodcoats]

Cycle 1 ends in a tie.

Onto cycle 2.

[foodcoats]

Pirates
Will
Mimi
ND
Bozo

Welcome to the crew bozo

Anyone else wanna join the fun boat?
Vecna? Ghug?

Brain adds bozo’s name to a town list of FOUR CONFIRMED town and then namedrops two more (non mafia).

Very bad correlation for bozo.

Bozo leads 3-2 overall
1-0 for this cycle

[foodcoats]

Pirates
Will
Mimi
ND
Bozo

Welcome to the crew bozo

Anyone else wanna join the fun boat?
Vecna? Ghug?

Brain adds bozo’s name to a town list of FOUR CONFIRMED town and then namedrops two more (non mafia).

Very bad correlation for bozo.

Bozo leads 3-2 overall
1-0 for this cycle

I’m going to continue but this is DAMNING in my opinion

[foodcoats]

I will go on record saying im very against a bozo elimination. Hes very much in his town game that im used to seeing. He hounded people with questions pretty heartily and tends to badger on and on in that way.

I still don’t see what you’re seeing. I understand your statement of fact. But I disagree that’s the facts.

This is a smattering of the examples I remembered where it felt like he was hounding people

Brain spent effort defending bozo that stands out.

At this point, dip wagon was at 5 and bozo had two votes, 3 hours left D2.

Bozo up 4-2 overall
2-0 this cycle

[foodcoats]

Next wagon I don't quite understand: Spirit
Post group 1: "I am joke posting but Demon made the roleblock post before I could so"
wait
wtf

I believe their early posting was slightly towny because they seemed to want to help town and had an eagerness to play which i see in newere players

will and dip facing off early, knowing the best money is on one of you two getting day oned. prolly both nervous town, but I'd be betting on you if I were the guy

So this is kind of long-winded
but
The 3p is either a witch or a warlock. I think spirit might be the witch referring to the warlock ("the guy" seems like a way of referring to the masculine-associated 3p, especially from the perspective of someone who is the witch). Also seems to be subtly profiling players for potentially prs (the comment about "nervous town" seems like it would be how a vt read would be presented), which also fits with the witch, whose main goal is to find prs!
TLDR: I think spirit is the Witch 3p

post group 2: "everyone thinks I'm a warlock" (???) "and here's some low-quality posts"
post group 3: "shit post, shitpost, shit post. Also brain is correct about saying that this is how I normally post"
Post group 4: "here's a read list" (!!!) "and I'm going to be annoying about the lie detector statement thing"
Post group 5: "here's a theory about voting, and I scumread food" (votes food)
Post group 6: "I always forgot that I'm mafia" (???) "but I'm town. the ND wagon is shitty and here are some posts of similar quality"
Post group 7: "Hi I'm back and I'm voting red because I don't scumread dip or ND, but I am also not joining the worcej wagon"

votes:
ghug: "using '/s' is scummy"
miminena: "I want a town claim from spirit"
food: "I am mad that spirit is scumreading non-posters"
brain: [no reason given]

conclusion: The spirit wagon was shitty and spirit is probably town, although the 3p theory does hold merit, between the stubbornness about claiming town and the potential witch slip
light townread on that

Alright so this is tough. Dip towns but also 3Ps spirit. In context he also took time to scumread rhk and ND. And I would really expect to see Dip bus here. The 3P thing is just so weird to imagine him doing that to his partner… but then why not?

This is the opposite of a point I gave before but I’m giving a correlation to spirit.

4-3 bozo overall
2-1 this cycle

[foodcoats]

##VOTE DIP

sorry worcej wagoners I want this over worcej a teensy bit

It was very unlikely DiplomacyandWarfare would be DKed with 1 minute to go. Why didn't you vote your preference between worcej and Red Neurax?

oh look bozo is here
next lurker who I scumread:
##vote worcej

I feel like dip pops off bozo too easily here but in context I think dip was in berserker mode and I’m not sure anything he says from this point can be relevant so I’m not adding points