M54: Not a Carrot Conspiracy

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Fluminator
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Re: M54: Not a Carrot Conspiracy

#2801 Post by Fluminator » Wed Mar 25, 2020 2:04 pm

Cop is dead. Godfather irrelevant
If killer dies the other mafia gain the kill

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Re: M54: Not a Carrot Conspiracy

#2802 Post by Fluminator » Wed Mar 25, 2020 2:07 pm

BunnyGo wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 3:06 am
Fluminator wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 6:07 pm
I think scum are killing people under no danger of being lynched in the future

Bad vote Chaqa, we don't worry about bussing quite yet.
Since people just think Chaqa is stupid instead of scum, I'll break from him for a bit.

##Vote Rdrivera
Can you explain this more if you haven't yet?
A mix between gut, meta, his thought progressions seeming fake, wagon/eod analysis, and associative tells with Bob.

I'll go expand more closer to eod unless I notice something else.

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Re: M54: Not a Carrot Conspiracy

#2803 Post by Fluminator » Wed Mar 25, 2020 2:34 pm

I think the only way EMC is scum is if he's patient zero.

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Re: M54: Not a Carrot Conspiracy

#2804 Post by Balki Bartokomous » Wed Mar 25, 2020 2:35 pm

Foxcastle wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 11:52 am
Balki Bartokomous wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 5:14 am
Like, look at silly Foxy. He’s actually voting for me. Can this be real?

Foxy won’t tell us his Balki case. Does anyone else want to guess what it is?
Out of curiosity, do you recall a time as scum when a town player had a solid case on you that wasn't mostly speculative and largely driven by gut reaction?
Sure. Townies have cases on me for lots of different reasons. But if your point is that I’m a good scum player when I roll scum, I agree.

If this is your round about way of saying: “I just have a gut feeling now that Balki is scum. I can’t explain it.” Then just say that. But maybe also try to explain how and why your gut feeling has changed so dramatically, and think through whether it makes the most sense to lynch a Bob voter today.

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Re: M54: Not a Carrot Conspiracy

#2805 Post by Fluminator » Wed Mar 25, 2020 2:35 pm

Based on yesterday, the only 4 people who I think are acceptable lynches are Rdrivera, Fox, Chaqa, and EMC.

EMC in my eyes is much better than the other 3 so I won't vote him, but I won't shame town people who vote him.

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Re: M54: Not a Carrot Conspiracy

#2806 Post by Foxcastle » Wed Mar 25, 2020 2:43 pm

Balki Bartokomous wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 2:35 pm
Foxcastle wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 11:52 am
Balki Bartokomous wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 5:14 am
Like, look at silly Foxy. He’s actually voting for me. Can this be real?

Foxy won’t tell us his Balki case. Does anyone else want to guess what it is?
Out of curiosity, do you recall a time as scum when a town player had a solid case on you that wasn't mostly speculative and largely driven by gut reaction?
Sure. Townies have cases on me for lots of different reasons
Right. Lawyers. Let me rephrase.

Please describe multiple examples of townies correctly scumreading you for specific reasons that are not largely speculative or driven by “gut feelings”.

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Re: M54: Not a Carrot Conspiracy

#2807 Post by xorxes » Wed Mar 25, 2020 2:44 pm

Fluminator wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 2:04 pm
Cop is dead. Godfather irrelevant
If killer dies the other mafia gain the kill
Exactly. The only "different" scum role at this point is patient zero, the other three are equal. Whether patient zero is more valuable than the others is debatable, it probably depends a lot more on who they are than on the role itself.

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Re: M54: Not a Carrot Conspiracy

#2808 Post by Fluminator » Wed Mar 25, 2020 2:45 pm

I might be willing to count that as a slight townslip by Damo and Jamiet

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Re: M54: Not a Carrot Conspiracy

#2809 Post by BunnyGo » Wed Mar 25, 2020 2:50 pm

Fluminator wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 2:34 pm
I think the only way EMC is scum is if he's patient zero.
I think *that* may be the most valuable scum role right now, as it's easiest to hide and not know anything.

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Re: M54: Not a Carrot Conspiracy

#2810 Post by Balki Bartokomous » Wed Mar 25, 2020 2:54 pm

Foxcastle wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 2:43 pm
Right. Lawyers. Let me rephrase.

Please describe multiple examples of townies correctly scumreading you for specific reasons that are not largely speculative or driven by “gut feelings”.
I mean...

Why would I do this? It’s totally irrelevant. You want me to collect examples of people who were Town in games where I was Scum, who read me as Scum for concrete reasons? You can go do that if you want, but it sounds like a pointless exercise to me.

If you’re point is: “Balki is tough to read as scum.” I concede that. I agree. So, is your opinion now: “Balki is tough to read as scum so we should lynch him”? And can you explain how and why that changed from me being your top townread like one phase ago?

(I am getting the impression that Fox knows he is caught and does not want to interact elsewhere to avoid giving more info, but I am susceptible to confirmation bias right now).

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Re: M54: Not a Carrot Conspiracy

#2811 Post by xorxes » Wed Mar 25, 2020 2:59 pm

Fluminator wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 2:45 pm
I might be willing to count that as a slight townslip by Damo and Jamiet
Could be, yes. Although it was already talked about in the thread.

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Re: M54: Not a Carrot Conspiracy

#2812 Post by Fluminator » Wed Mar 25, 2020 2:59 pm

ngl I've started skipping most Fox vs. Balki posts at this point.

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Re: M54: Not a Carrot Conspiracy

#2813 Post by rdrivera2005 » Wed Mar 25, 2020 3:00 pm

damo666 wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 12:12 pm
rdrivera2005 wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 9:26 am
damo666 wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 3:51 am


Sorry. NOT bussing.

Omitted the 'not'.
Ok, a bit better. I confess I am playing a lot worst this game that my regular game. I wasn't factoring that only 2 scum know's Bob's alignment, so I agree it's unlikely both bussed. But I still think it's unlikely both voted emc, so this makes 1 on each the most likely configuration.
rdr's configuration comment here implies to me that he is either town or if he is scum there were 2 scum on EMC (rdr and kgray?).
Do you really think I will made this comment as scum if my scummate was also on Emc and with me likely to be lynched today? That's insulting....

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Re: M54: Not a Carrot Conspiracy

#2814 Post by rdrivera2005 » Wed Mar 25, 2020 3:02 pm

Fluminator wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 2:07 pm
BunnyGo wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 3:06 am
Fluminator wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 6:07 pm
I think scum are killing people under no danger of being lynched in the future

Bad vote Chaqa, we don't worry about bussing quite yet.
Since people just think Chaqa is stupid instead of scum, I'll break from him for a bit.

##Vote Rdrivera
Can you explain this more if you haven't yet?
A mix between gut, meta, his thought progressions seeming fake, wagon/eod analysis, and associative tells with Bob.

I'll go expand more closer to eod unless I notice something else.
Could you expand it before EOD so I have time to address it?

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Re: M54: Not a Carrot Conspiracy

#2815 Post by Foxcastle » Wed Mar 25, 2020 3:03 pm

Fluminator wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 2:59 pm
ngl I've started skipping most Fox vs. Balki posts at this point.
To be fair, so have I.

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Re: M54: Not a Carrot Conspiracy

#2816 Post by Foxcastle » Wed Mar 25, 2020 3:03 pm

Foxcastle wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 3:03 pm
Fluminator wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 2:59 pm
ngl I've started skipping most Fox vs. Balki posts at this point.
To be fair, so have I.
(This is a joke, BTW)

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Re: M54: Not a Carrot Conspiracy

#2817 Post by rdrivera2005 » Wed Mar 25, 2020 3:10 pm

Fluminator wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 2:35 pm
Based on yesterday, the only 4 people who I think are acceptable lynches are Rdrivera, Fox, Chaqa, and EMC.

EMC in my eyes is much better than the other 3 so I won't vote him, but I won't shame town people who vote him.
I agree with this, but also include kgray. She is flying under the radar a lot. My order is Fox>emc>Chaqa>kgray>>>>>>>>>me

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Re: M54: Not a Carrot Conspiracy

#2818 Post by Chaqa » Wed Mar 25, 2020 3:24 pm

Mornin peoples.

After thinking a bit about it, I think lynching EMC today is a bad idea. I've been reading the arguments about whether Bob was bussed, whether EMC is also scum, etc., and I just don't think it's the case now. EMC hasn't exactly been the most valuable player this game, and as someone pointed out, none of the mafia roles are *that much* more powerful/important at this point than any other.

It seems more likely that Occam's Razor is right and EMC is town and it was TvS. I still think at least one scum (IMO xorxes) was on Bob. The issue is, there's only two "knowing" scum left, so it's hard to build a team composition for them.

All things considered, I think Fox makes a lot of sense as a wagon today. He never voted Bob, is widely flying under the radar, lots of players have scumreads on him. His voting record on Day 3 is extremely suspicious as others have analyzed.

I actually think on Day 1, him moving to Temasek and then back off to worcej is petty suspicious. Something scum would do - "look, I fought against the Tem lynch!" as a possible future excuse.

I'd like to get some more thoughts on this. I think my vote today has to be either xorxes, Fox, or Bunny.

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Re: M54: Not a Carrot Conspiracy

#2819 Post by Foxcastle » Wed Mar 25, 2020 3:30 pm

Chaqa wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 3:24 pm
All things considered, I think Fox makes a lot of sense as a wagon today. He ... is widely flying under the radar, lots of players have scumreads on him.
This is contradictory. One of these days, you're all going to learn that "flying under the radar" or "present but not present" or whatever you want to call it is just how I am as any alignment.

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Re: M54: Not a Carrot Conspiracy

#2820 Post by Chaqa » Wed Mar 25, 2020 3:35 pm

Foxcastle wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 3:30 pm
Chaqa wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 3:24 pm
All things considered, I think Fox makes a lot of sense as a wagon today. He ... is widely flying under the radar, lots of players have scumreads on him.
This is contradictory. One of these days, you're all going to learn that "flying under the radar" or "present but not present" or whatever you want to call it is just how I am as any alignment.
I suppose I meant that, compared to the level of people scumreading you, you're accumulating very few votes. Contrast to me, who while also being widely scumread, has attracted a LOT of votes.

Tends to be a scum indicator IMO as your teammates will scum read but not vote for you, unless bussing.

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