WebMafia Olympics: Bonus Qualification Round

[Yoyoyozo]

Then what are you suggesting I do?

I don’t know. I had visited Kak before damo, so there was no point in signaling in game like that. He’s softcleared in my mind. KOTP is now actually kind of sus, I’m not sure what to believe but I have to trust my gut, even in the face of his stubbornness. I think Chaqa being NKd has a lot to do with it.

Mafia know what votes are theirs, and they probably thought that Chaqa was the Confident champion, given it’s not practical for KOTP to just out information about confirming that there’s a confident champion. I also think the play yesterday was to make it seem like damo bet on ham being the confident champion, hence the signalling I pointed out. I think it was probably closer to them axing Chaqa and betting on Kak or KOTP being the champion, of which they probably guessed right.

I’ll try to articulate further, but that’s what my gut tells me.

Okay another additional point from mafia’s perspective:
If KOTP was mafia, wouldn’t they get rid of Ham and not Chaqa? Chaqa switching over would not make sense as Champion with how the votes ended up. I think they’d bet on, and NK Ham as champion. Chaqa also is less active, and is prone to switching votes so is more of an asset to mafia.

If Ham was mafia, getting rid of Chaqa instead of KOTP makes so much more sense. KOTP likely wont be on EOD, isn’t particularly townread, and blurted out PR information at the start of N4, making him less likely to actually be a PR. I think he is though.

To simplify this: mafia is PR hunting.

KOTP as mafia they had a choice between Chaqa and Ham to NK, leaving us two choices.
-they left us with Ham and KOTP as choices for DK
—they could have left us with Chaqa and KOTP


Ham as mafia they had a choice between Chaqa and KOTP to NK, leaving us two choices.
-they left us with Ham and KOTP as choices for DK
—they could have left us with Chaqa and Ham

Which of those are more aligned? KOTP as mafia is already positioned to claim confident champion, as is Ham.

I suppose mafia KOTP could have left Ham alive so they could claim confident champ themselves. But mafia Ham could have done the exact same thing so that part cancels out.

I made a statement suggesting that Chaqa could be bussing damo, so KOTP has an incentive to keep Chaqa alive, and actually NK Kak so there more ambiguity between Ham and Chaqa. But would mafia Ham clarify the situation like that? Interesting.

Ham wouldn’t NK Kak, as I’ve said before, PR hunting (I’ve already visited Kak, and damo is right, I wouldn’t keep visiting people if I had already found the champion. So Chaqa is the most viable NK For Mafia Ham. So that’s where I am.

[Yoyoyozo]

##CallGM can the gambler NK and bet on a player being champion the same phase?

No. I wish the document was clear about that.

But I don't think the Gambler would be killing the guy he was betting on (thematically speaking of course).

That’s fine. I just worked out that both KOTP and Ham would keep each other alive in order to claim the other’s PR role

[Yoyoyozo]

Well not claim each other’s role lol I doubt anyone would claim mafia. They’d both claim the champion role.

[Yoyoyozo]

Wait I suppose Ham could have NK’d Kak. But there’s still the possibility of Chaqa actually being the Champion (albeit small) and if Chaqa had claimed, (again in mafia’s mind KOTP made things very ambiguous with the post about the Champion N4) that would make KOTP VT (and they’d be wrong about their bet on Champ so they’d would lose a mafia member if they placed that bet) So it really kinda has to be between Chaqa and KOTP and they probably NK’d Chaqa to cover their bases.

KOTP has more freedom to NK Kak, since even in the unlikely scenario that Chaqa was the Champion, they could very confidently counterclaim and the way the votes ended, there would be no way town could be convinced that Chaqa was actually the champion. Ham would be a VT in this scenario

[Hamilton Brian]

I don’t know if you’re making it more difficult than it needs to be.

[Yoyoyozo]

To add onto that, Ham was very clearly trying to draw a visit from me. As was Flav (which is why Ham wanted him dead.) so Mafia KOTP could more confidently conclude that Ham was the Champion and not Chaqa, making Kak a clear target

[Yoyoyozo]

And Kak was not the target. Why? Because Ham is Kira.

[Yoyoyozo]

I tried to explain the vibes the best I could.

[Yoyoyozo]

To add onto that, Ham was very clearly trying to draw a visit from me. As was Flav (which is why Ham wanted him dead.) so Mafia KOTP could more confidently conclude that Ham was the Champion and not Chaqa, making Kak a clear target

Btw both KOTP and Ham wanted him dead, for different (really the same) reasons. The Champion wanted him dead because he was soft claiming, and the mafia wanted him dead because he was soft claiming

[Yoyoyozo]

So really everything lines up except that Chaqa NK, and Ham has more of an incentive to NK Chaqa over Kak, due to KOTP’s comments.

[Yoyoyozo]

Oh wait noooo I forgot to account for myself being an NK target. I suppose KOTP could have also NKd me, but so could Ham. I didn’t like how Ham was at several points trying to determine who I thought was mafia in the middle of N4, so that reads to me like a setup for who mafia want the N4 target to be.

[sweetandcool]

Official Vote Count 5.0/6.0

Hamilton Brian (4) damo666*, Yoyoyozo, kingofthepirates, Kakarroto
kingofthepirates (1) Hamilton Brian

Ham is currently set to die.

Over a day left of phase.

[Hamilton Brian]

Wait I suppose Ham could have NK’d Kak. But there’s still the possibility of Chaqa actually being the Champion (albeit small) and if Chaqa had claimed, (again in mafia’s mind KOTP made things very ambiguous with the post about the Champion N4) that would make KOTP VT (and they’d be wrong about their bet on Champ so they’d would lose a mafia member if they placed that bet) So it really kinda has to be between Chaqa and KOTP and they probably NK’d Chaqa to cover their bases.

KOTP has more freedom to NK Kak, since even in the unlikely scenario that Chaqa was the Champion, they could very confidently counterclaim and the way the votes ended, there would be no way town could be convinced that Chaqa was actually the champion. Ham would be a VT in this scenario

What do you mean Chaqa is Champion. I can’t figure if you’re speaking in reading past days or working through in the now.

[Kakarroto]

##CallGM can the gambler NK and bet on a player being champion the same phase?

No. I wish the document was clear about that.

But I don't think the Gambler would be killing the guy he was betting on (thematically speaking of course).

oh wait, this is huge! I thought mafia would be gunning for that, but if that's not possible, then the game surly isn't lost!

Alright then, what would mafia's plan than be? Assuming they bet on flav's death and have the immune ability for the gambler today:

-) not getting the drug dealer voted

-) use the drug to empower the vote

no, wait, they would be still a vote short with confident champion. So their goal would be to draw out the confident champion to remove him so town hasn't an extra vote.

Then what is mafia's plan ... bet that the dayvote is their mafia partner? The drug dealer? Would they use their last use of steroids in that case?

If their plan involves that, they want to make sure that they either

-) get the gambler voted so no dk happens or

-) misvote a town if possible or

-) get the gambler immunity for next night again if the drug dealer gets voted out.

Well, maybe they decided that it's better to bet on the immune gambler anyway. Hmm.

Either way, they are already 4-2 behind in votes, with the dealer maybe in high danger, or a planned sacrifice. They would use their last drug use in that case, right?

Although, if they decided to be risky and hope the dealer survives the day, they could use the drug tomorrow to cause a tie even if they don't get the champion.

So I guess it depends what mafia has planned, but I think the most likely scenario is that mafia, with an immune gambler today, has a bet on their teammate to make the gambler immune tomorrow. Probably using the drug to guarantee this.

This would mean their win, if they get the confident champion tonight (or if they are lucky today), since that way town cannot do anything against them.

Hm, I thought the counter to that might be a no-kill vote today, but even if they've used the drug today, when they nk the confident champion, it's still game over for town.

I guess the game just didn't end because they are either unsure or haven't virtually put in the confident champion guess/nk. Well, that is if mafia has played it that way I anticipated. Maybe they made a mistake the way along. It could be they decided not to bet on the dealer, and it might be they haven't even bet on flav to gain the immunity.

But yeah, that feels like a cope to me. Still, need to keep going.

If mafia hasn't bet on the dealer, we should pile on him. If gambler is not immune, it's the perfect chance to get him. We just have to decide for a path, and walk it boldly, together.

[Kakarroto]

And Kak was not the target. Why? Because Ham is Kira.

m webmafia olympics bonus quali round - L kira.png (17.45 KiB) Viewed 255 times

[Kakarroto]

wow, viewed 23 times in 10 minutes, I guess people are watching.

[kingofthepirates]

If mafia hasn't bet on the dealer, we should pile on him. If gambler is not immune, it's the perfect chance to get him. We just have to decide for a path, and walk it boldly, together.

What do you guys think the most logical bets yesterday and today are? I think the flav DK bet is very logical (so gambler may very well be immune today), do you think they double up on that? if they do, then its an option to go for the no-kill, deny the NK, waste the gambler immunity, then proceed again tomorrow. buys us a day, and yoyo can do something with ham b. but this only works if we think mafia bets like this... its risky for sure. also theres a question i have:

##call gm do gambler bets resolve if they are the DK?
ex. can they limit someone's posts while dead? If they bet on their own demise, does the DK immunity just fizzle? If they get the DK bet wrong, does mafia still lose the NK?

Would it be a good idea to see what everyone would bet as gambler or do you guys think that would be too complicated and inevitably WOFIM to figure out whos lying and whats the optimal path forward (I'm just throwing out random ideas)?

[kingofthepirates]

And Kak was not the target. Why? Because Ham is Kira.

m webmafia olympics bonus quali round - L kira.png

[Kakarroto]

If mafia hasn't bet on the dealer, we should pile on him. If gambler is not immune, it's the perfect chance to get him. We just have to decide for a path, and walk it boldly, together.

What do you guys think the most logical bets yesterday and today are? I think the flav DK bet is very logical (so gambler may very well be immune today), do you think they double up on that? if they do, then its an option to go for the no-kill, deny the NK, waste the gambler immunity, then proceed again tomorrow. buys us a day, and yoyo can do something with ham b. but this only works if we think mafia bets like this... its risky for sure. also theres a question i have:

##call gm do gambler bets resolve if they are the DK?
ex. can they limit someone's posts while dead? If they bet on their own demise, does the DK immunity just fizzle? If they get the DK bet wrong, does mafia still lose the NK?

Would it be a good idea to see what everyone would bet as gambler or do you guys think that would be too complicated and inevitably WOFIM to figure out whos lying and whats the optimal path forward (I'm just throwing out random ideas)?

oh right, I overlooked this:

Bet on Identity of DK Target:

Success: Immunity from DK for the following phase. After two successes cannot make this bet anymore.

Failure: Mafia loses the NK for a phase.

NOTE: This bet resolves End of Day. The Immunity from DK is activated for the following phase.

right, I forgot they lose the nk if they're wrong. This didn't happen the first time when we had a tie, so they didn't bet on flav that time.

If mafia don't count in that we force a tie, and bet it all on a vote target with the drug, then we could not only render their drug useless, make their immunity go away, but also rob them of tonight's nk. If all town with the con champ second vote go vote for no-kill, we could actually do this in that case.

Of course, mafia could've predicted we come up with that idea, so they could just bet something else.

Hmm. Glad I'm not the one deciding today.

[Yoyoyozo]

If mafia hasn't bet on the dealer, we should pile on him. If gambler is not immune, it's the perfect chance to get him. We just have to decide for a path, and walk it boldly, together.

What do you guys think the most logical bets yesterday and today are? I think the flav DK bet is very logical (so gambler may very well be immune today), do you think they double up on that? if they do, then its an option to go for the no-kill, deny the NK, waste the gambler immunity, then proceed again tomorrow. buys us a day, and yoyo can do something with ham b. but this only works if we think mafia bets like this... its risky for sure. also theres a question i have:

##call gm do gambler bets resolve if they are the DK?
ex. can they limit someone's posts while dead? If they bet on their own demise, does the DK immunity just fizzle? If they get the DK bet wrong, does mafia still lose the NK?

Would it be a good idea to see what everyone would bet as gambler or do you guys think that would be too complicated and inevitably WOFIM to figure out whos lying and whats the optimal path forward (I'm just throwing out random ideas)?

oh right, I overlooked this:

Bet on Identity of DK Target:

Success: Immunity from DK for the following phase. After two successes cannot make this bet anymore.

Failure: Mafia loses the NK for a phase.

NOTE: This bet resolves End of Day. The Immunity from DK is activated for the following phase.

right, I forgot they lose the nk if they're wrong. This didn't happen the first time when we had a tie, so they didn't bet on flav that time.

If mafia don't count in that we force a tie, and bet it all on a vote target with the drug, then we could not only render their drug useless, make their immunity go away, but also rob them of tonight's nk. If all town with the con champ second vote go vote for no-kill, we could actually do this in that case.

Of course, mafia could've predicted we come up with that idea, so they could just bet something else.

Hmm. Glad I'm not the one deciding today.

That’s too risky. If we lose the champion, that’s game over if mafia has steroids.