M89: Baldurs Gate Mafia Game Thread

[Col7by]

Please think that through some more, and consider time stamps.

I see that they put it out right before the night elim but Kar made it pretty clear they were targeting dip early on right? Dip was one of the first two that I had as scum so I’m more than willing to do the vote just want to make sure we are for sure first.

Why do you think Dip is scum?

It was initially on vibes the first 10 pages and some posts but dip was the person I couldn’t remember specific details by the time I caught up to page 40

[FlaviusAetius]

Bona and flum have some kind of prior relationship.

Would you explain why this matters to the discussion please?

Bona said something playful to flum about how they should lock in and find scum. Flavius has decided it means it means something that bona picked flum to say that to. I have a very good source that tells me that bona and flum have played mafia a bunch together and may or may not have spend long periods of time in the same discord server and it’s probably NAI for bona to say that.

Ok thank you.

[Balki Bartokomous]

I see that they put it out right before the night elim but Kar made it pretty clear they were targeting dip early on right? Dip was one of the first two that I had as scum so I’m more than willing to do the vote just want to make sure we are for sure first.

Why do you think Dip is scum?

It was initially on vibes the first 10 pages and some posts but dip was the person I couldn’t remember specific details by the time I caught up to page 40

Do you have any reason to believe that Dip is scum right now?

[Vecna]

balki, have you caught up in part? you seem quite ibterested in all the d&w voters

[sweetandcool]

yes, I consider the skill as town too for my votes. If I'm unsure of their alignment, that might become the deciding factor.

In d&w's case, I see it as a win win, either we get mafia, or get vote out a bad town. Not much lost there. And I think the chance he is mafia is rather high.

If I don't vote for anyone that 'could be town', then most of the time I would have to vote no-kill. And that is just not good enough, if we played that way, mafia would just nk off all town, and we would gain much less information. So yes, I'm very ok with a candidate that could be town but plays badly and has decent chances to be mafia.

Decent chances being 51%? I expect better of you than to willfully tunnel.

1. Dip is very different this game (and he has always been scum*)
2. Dip is clearly trying to solve.
3. Dip is solving poorly.
4. Dip was like a dog with a bone over the Kak-tadpole thing.

And so on.

Nobody is going to take Dip seriously, so he is not "dangerous" to Town. He just has no idea how to solve.

I know you are annoyed with him, but seriously you are better than putting the blinders on just because you want a particular player out of the game.

I disagree with point 1. D&W shows similar behaviour towards me like in the game we were both mafia with the misrepresentation. I know I'm not mafia, so alright, it could just be a personal thing. I still find it sus and bad. But everyone else than me should be very worried that we BOTH are mafia together here

maybe he is not dangerous in itself, but he leaving such things in the thread, repeating them can still influence the impression from others. There is a reason why commercials and ads are so repetitive, and slogans come to everyone's mind, even when they are bad. The more you hear/read/experience the same thing, the more your brain gets synchronized with that. It forms and grows inside and can get so big, that at one point, you truly believe a wrong thing even when you knew before it's wrong. This is very dangerous.

I try not to get blinded, and I think my EoN post will explain it better. But I give you, that I probably made a mistake at EoD when voting for d&w instead of flum at the time. I could've put him into the pole position yesterday, and I was too distracted. We could've had a very different discussion now, maybe, but that is a topic for the god thread, I guess

Yes, I suppose your scumgame with him would influence your worldview. I think this is different. Let's just save it for later then, because his fake ness will become quite apparent over time if he is indeed Mafia.

[Balki Bartokomous]

balki, have you caught up in part? you seem quite ibterested in all the d&w voters

I’m through about page 35.

[sweetandcool]

Flum - D&W - ghug - kotp/Balki - jamie

I think this has the highest possibility of being the mafia team right now.

If you ask me, why, I'll try to explain:

-) D&W looks to me connected to Flum, ghug and King Balki: he condemns me for what Flum did, tries to bend the narrative that it was me suggesting the whole tadpole thing, putting Flum at his highest/best read with his alignment chart, then go back with it all by saying it was just a joke. Puts ghug down as 'powerwolfing' while ghug's posts seemed mostly jokes - looks like TMI to me here. He also invents unfathomable justifications for townreading kotp early, trying to make his selfvote less awful that it is. Furthermore, the constant ignorance towards facts of D&W is just not a town thing to do, he is at least anti-town

-) Other than his awful suggestion about the tadpole, which he retracted much later as a 'joke', Flum feels suspicious to me. Saying that Brian, who gets often misvoted, obvtowns under pressure, then WHEN Brian actually puts towny stuff down ignoring it, just feels so disingenious. Hard townreads d&w, tries to disincentivising voting for him.

-) ghug hard towning d&w and defending him looks like a typical maf-ghug weakness here. Might be even that ghug is goon and d&w is a power mafia role. But ghug also shows his other tendency when he is mafia: wanting to be townread early. Town ghug usually wants to be more nebulous, mysterious, to not getting dk'ed early. In this game, ghug points out he has to be town, once because he wasn't naked in the last 12 hours (ok, first I thought that first one was but a joke), but also later, and that one looks not like a joke to me. That heavily hints we have a mafia ghug here, and is connected to d&w. Ghug's intend to 'try not to solve until day 4' is just atrocious and I doubt town ghug would ever feel that way.

-) kotp didn't do much, a few posts early, then voted no-kill, changed it to a self vote after I point out a rule. Itself not atypical for him, kotp usually isn't much involved as far as I've seen. But with the praise of d&w, him pushing kotp so high into town area, for him doing practically nothing, looks like a mafia trying to form a great opinion for a partner that has the opportunity to 'go dark' and coast a long, long time.

-) regarding jamie, from most of his actions and words, how he plays this game I would've said he is town ... BUT, his reaction, or rather non-reaction of kotp's selfvote is rather weird. I would've thought that town-jamie would vote kotp, call others to vote him too, to not voting for himself. I would've thought that maf-jamie would use this opportunity to go on to town-kotp, too, imitating townplay, which would've been quite easy, I think. But jamie not doing that is a big warning sign that both are mafia partners here. Maybe I'm wrong, and town-jamie just changed, but with the rest what I've seen of jamie, I don't get that feeling, he is good old jamie.


I do think that the hardest connection is between d&w and ghug, as is between d&w and flum. The d&w connection to kotp is rather weak, and is only inforced with jamie's (non)reaction. Thus I think we should vote out d&w tomorrow.

I also think, if King Balki flips town, jamie is most likely not mafia, so in this 5-man team, he should be targeted last. Ghug could be mafia without d&w, as could flum, and d&w just be awful town. Nonetheless, I think this is the most likely mafia team from a connections point of view.


Other people who I think have a chance to be mafia here:

damo, though very small. Mostly, he feels different. I think, we need to figure him out earlier than later, but I think we can afford to give him some time, maybe a day or two, or three, to get rolling. But if this keeps on, and my previous maf-team turns out wrong, we should consider voting him. But I just don't see this 'obvmafia' some people are putting on him.

Bunny doesn't feel too good to me and had some small drops I find suspicious. I think he deserves some scrutiny if my team guess above turns out to be wrong. I have to say though, I agree of some things bunny says.

lfischl should not be allowed to coast, needs to participate. If not, consider voting him on a higher priority.

I expected more from Ezio, he could just be there, lying in wait, trying to strike. With his normal behaviour, I also think he would fit into any mafia team, naturally.


I think bona and sweet are very towny. Dousing is also looking very good. Vecna has gotten some town points from me, but I don't want to put him as high town. Squiggs feels fine too, should be town. I also think that our kobold ambassador, RHK, is a good kobold here.


I want Mad Monarch to participate more, please give us your thoughts. Col7by needs to do more too, even when it feels hard. If nothing else, give a few gut-reads and do what your heart feels. Will felt ok, but wasn't much involved? Want to see more from him too.

If two of the next three nk's are PR's, vote worcej. If not, he should be town. I think Flavius has not bad chances to be town here, but I don't feel he is on the same level as the others. Maybe the least town, maybe the highest from the null-ish part.

I have problems getting a feel for food, chayozo, fox and aaro, cannot really sort them. Please make some more so I can read you.


for tomorrow, please copy paste the following:

##vote DiplomacyandWarfare

##end

##VOTE Kak
##END

[sweetandcool]

Oops, did I copy it wrong?

[DemonRHK]

##VOTE Kak
##END

YOU JUST MADE THE LIST

[Balki Bartokomous]

I suggest that we have a robust discussion and carefully considered vote rather than end the day early and follow one player’s read.

[Yoyoyozo]

##vote sweetandcool

[sweetandcool]

Oh no! Kak my pal, I will avenge thee.

(Also hilarious, I know)

[FlaviusAetius]

Flum - D&W - ghug - kotp/Balki - jamie

I think this has the highest possibility of being the mafia team right now.

If you ask me, why, I'll try to explain:

-) D&W looks to me connected to Flum, ghug and King Balki: he condemns me for what Flum did, tries to bend the narrative that it was me suggesting the whole tadpole thing, putting Flum at his highest/best read with his alignment chart, then go back with it all by saying it was just a joke. Puts ghug down as 'powerwolfing' while ghug's posts seemed mostly jokes - looks like TMI to me here. He also invents unfathomable justifications for townreading kotp early, trying to make his selfvote less awful that it is. Furthermore, the constant ignorance towards facts of D&W is just not a town thing to do, he is at least anti-town

-) Other than his awful suggestion about the tadpole, which he retracted much later as a 'joke', Flum feels suspicious to me. Saying that Brian, who gets often misvoted, obvtowns under pressure, then WHEN Brian actually puts towny stuff down ignoring it, just feels so disingenious. Hard townreads d&w, tries to disincentivising voting for him.

-) ghug hard towning d&w and defending him looks like a typical maf-ghug weakness here. Might be even that ghug is goon and d&w is a power mafia role. But ghug also shows his other tendency when he is mafia: wanting to be townread early. Town ghug usually wants to be more nebulous, mysterious, to not getting dk'ed early. In this game, ghug points out he has to be town, once because he wasn't naked in the last 12 hours (ok, first I thought that first one was but a joke), but also later, and that one looks not like a joke to me. That heavily hints we have a mafia ghug here, and is connected to d&w. Ghug's intend to 'try not to solve until day 4' is just atrocious and I doubt town ghug would ever feel that way.

-) kotp didn't do much, a few posts early, then voted no-kill, changed it to a self vote after I point out a rule. Itself not atypical for him, kotp usually isn't much involved as far as I've seen. But with the praise of d&w, him pushing kotp so high into town area, for him doing practically nothing, looks like a mafia trying to form a great opinion for a partner that has the opportunity to 'go dark' and coast a long, long time.

-) regarding jamie, from most of his actions and words, how he plays this game I would've said he is town ... BUT, his reaction, or rather non-reaction of kotp's selfvote is rather weird. I would've thought that town-jamie would vote kotp, call others to vote him too, to not voting for himself. I would've thought that maf-jamie would use this opportunity to go on to town-kotp, too, imitating townplay, which would've been quite easy, I think. But jamie not doing that is a big warning sign that both are mafia partners here. Maybe I'm wrong, and town-jamie just changed, but with the rest what I've seen of jamie, I don't get that feeling, he is good old jamie.


I do think that the hardest connection is between d&w and ghug, as is between d&w and flum. The d&w connection to kotp is rather weak, and is only inforced with jamie's (non)reaction. Thus I think we should vote out d&w tomorrow.

I also think, if King Balki flips town, jamie is most likely not mafia, so in this 5-man team, he should be targeted last. Ghug could be mafia without d&w, as could flum, and d&w just be awful town. Nonetheless, I think this is the most likely mafia team from a connections point of view.


Other people who I think have a chance to be mafia here:

damo, though very small. Mostly, he feels different. I think, we need to figure him out earlier than later, but I think we can afford to give him some time, maybe a day or two, or three, to get rolling. But if this keeps on, and my previous maf-team turns out wrong, we should consider voting him. But I just don't see this 'obvmafia' some people are putting on him.

Bunny doesn't feel too good to me and had some small drops I find suspicious. I think he deserves some scrutiny if my team guess above turns out to be wrong. I have to say though, I agree of some things bunny says.

lfischl should not be allowed to coast, needs to participate. If not, consider voting him on a higher priority.

I expected more from Ezio, he could just be there, lying in wait, trying to strike. With his normal behaviour, I also think he would fit into any mafia team, naturally.


I think bona and sweet are very towny. Dousing is also looking very good. Vecna has gotten some town points from me, but I don't want to put him as high town. Squiggs feels fine too, should be town. I also think that our kobold ambassador, RHK, is a good kobold here.


I want Mad Monarch to participate more, please give us your thoughts. Col7by needs to do more too, even when it feels hard. If nothing else, give a few gut-reads and do what your heart feels. Will felt ok, but wasn't much involved? Want to see more from him too.

If two of the next three nk's are PR's, vote worcej. If not, he should be town. I think Flavius has not bad chances to be town here, but I don't feel he is on the same level as the others. Maybe the least town, maybe the highest from the null-ish part.

I have problems getting a feel for food, chayozo, fox and aaro, cannot really sort them. Please make some more so I can read you.


for tomorrow, please copy paste the following:

##vote DiplomacyandWarfare

##end

I suppose this needs a deep analysis. Could be them slimming Kar to frame dip and get us to miss again?

Kak posted this at the end, the Mafia had zero chance in order to actually react to whatever information Kak was able to put down here. I still agree with sweet, I think Kak is tunneling here...but maybe he tunneled correctly?

I think at least one person who skated/barely talked D1 was a strategy out of a mafia. This game has unique posting requirements and they should all be put into a box for later. Its not necessary for us to sus them right now, but thats where we should look for the 3rd or 4th mafia.

I also think Kak's team makes sense if D&W is mafia, but I just dont know if I can pull the trigger, he brought up a lot of good arguments that only make sense if D&W is mafia for Flum. Can anyone else verify what Kak says about Ghug? If we can then he should be the first domino to fall, because theres other evidence around this supposed team that leads him to be a mafia. If he falls then the Flum & D&W mafia team now makes sense.

I think he's completely missed the mark on Jamie, Im sure he just didnt see the whole kotp thing and plus kotp went AFK pretty early on, sure what kotp did was sus, but clearly kotp was busy with other stuff whatever we can get out of kotp is zero I think, I think he's in the box of the one mafia who chose to not talk as a strategy, in D1, but I dont think we should be worrying about that person rn.

Ghug is my vote IF someone can verify what Kak said, let me catch up and see if someone already has.

[Vecna]

why do y'all have to make this weird turb of events even weirder?

[Squigs44]

I'm thoroughly confused by S&C rn

[brainbomb]

(meanwhile at the secret LAN Party)

Steve: Ugh, I hate secret stuff. Whoever invited me to this better have a good explanation.

(Steve approaches the door, and finds a tiny sliding window, it opens and a voice from inside speaks)

Mia: Password?

Steve: Um, the email said the password was Harp3r but with a 3 in it, like a moron would spell.

Mia: And did you bring the Taco Johns meals?

Steve: Yes, I brought the combo meals. What is this, what are you inviting me too?

Mia: I want you to become a Harper. No tricks.

Steve: okay can we... make out later?

Mia: Only if you play Astarion.

Steve: Oh... yea, in the game. yea thats what I meant for sure.

DiplomacyandWarfare (2) DemonRHK* damo666
sweetandcool (1) Yoyoyozo

DiplomacyandWarfare is scheduled to die
23.5 hours remain

[Vecna]

(meanwhile at the secret LAN Party)

Steve: Ugh, I hate secret stuff. Whoever invited me to this better have a good explanation.

(Steve approaches the door, and finds a tiny sliding window, it opens and a voice from inside speaks)

Mia: Password?

Steve: Um, the email said the password was Harp3r but with a 3 in it, like a moron would spell.

Mia: And did you bring the Taco Johns meals?

Steve: Yes, I brought the combo meals. What is this, what are you inviting me too?

Mia: I want you to become a Harper. No tricks.

Steve: okay can we... make out later?

Mia: Only if you play Astarion.

Steve: Oh... yea, in the game. yea thats what I meant for sure.

DiplomacyandWarfare (2) DemonRHK* damo666
sweetandcool (1) Yoyoyozo

DiplomacyandWarfare is scheduled to die
23.5 hours remain

for all of 2 seconds i thought d&w just got vigged and flipped

[Squigs44]

Also a bit offended I wasn't fear killed. Just gonna assume mafia saw some crumbs in Kaks posts. Either that or scum!Vecna told his team to leave me alive so he could continue to buddy me. Man I miss feeling paranoid like this

[FlaviusAetius]

I suppose this needs a deep analysis. Could be them slimming Kar to frame dip and get us to miss again?

Please think that through some more, and consider time stamps.

I see that they put it out right before the night elim but Kar made it pretty clear they were targeting dip early on right? Dip was one of the first two that I had as scum so I’m more than willing to do the vote just want to make sure we are for sure first.

Yep, thats why its clear that if Dip is a townie, theyd take down Kak to get us to take him down. Thats why Kak posting that messageright before the night was done was CRUCIAL, and its why we should look at the OTHER members of his mafia team to determine if we should give this credence. His ghug analysis has reasons that rely on OTHER than being in this team, and so thats who we should be targetting

[damo666]

I suggest that we have a robust discussion and carefully considered vote rather than end the day early and follow one player’s read.

Agree no reason to end.

However Kak was my strongest townread and I had mild suspicions about Dip. Doesn't fit my off top D1 wagons criteria but I'm happy to follow Kak's read.