M 1029: The webMafia Olympics game 1 SPY VS SPY

[brainbomb]

Can we talk about how col7by and dip and war are still clearly the two scum?

[ghug]

Ok I was hoping y'all would just get this but we're not playing mafia.

Several people have already noted that town is doomed. That's true if we play it like mafia, and it's kind of a feature of the setup. The way town wins this game is by pitting the mafia against each other. Townies can also win this game by being recruited, but my reading of the rules has always been that playing to this outcome runs contrary to playing to one's own win condition (the spectrum of positions on this point kind of undermines the game's whole conceit, which is one of the reasons I'm personally not a fan of recruitment games).

If we kill a townie today, we have less ability to effect our will as the game progresses further. If we kill scum today, there's no counterweight to the other scum team. We go into tomorrow in what's basically a brand new 7v2 mafia game in which we have no PRs, scum has twice as much power as a normal mafia team to reduce the number disparity as long as their leader is alive, and every new recruit is going to lack connections to their teammates. Town is unlikely to win that game. We need the Mafia team to be threats to each other.

We normally kill D1 for two reasons, neither of which applies here:
1. To start getting voting information. Bozo has already pointed out that this doesn't work when the mafia don't have teammates. I'm a little bit shocked Bona didn't notice this.
2. Because our numbers advantage will only get worse over time. This isn't applicable here for the reasons I laid out above.

I agree the 7 vs. 2 game is not favorable for town, but town still needs both mafia teams to be eliminated to win, so I don't think the alternative is any better.

I think the mafia will correctly see town as the least threatening team starting tomorrow, regardless of how many people are still alive, and prioritize killing each other. The 7-2 game, we'll be the only targets. A 6-2-2 game is better than a 5-2-2 game. There's no useful analysis to be done with the vote counts. I just don't see the upside of killing today.

[ghug]

Can we talk about how col7by and dip and war are still clearly the two scum?

How confident are you actually in this opinion?

[ghug]

Note that brain is pro kill but is actually trying to solve, whereas bona and bozo appear to have no interest.

[bozotheclown]

If we no-kill D1 and both mafia successfully recruit N1 (approximately 70% chance), it will be 6-2-2. If one of the original mafia gets DKed D2, the other mafia team is going to be hard to stop, because the lone mafia will not be able to recruit or NK. It would likely be 5-3-1 D3. Also, town will not know if it is 5-3-1 or if the mafia failed to recruit, and they also won't know whether the DKed mafia was an original mafia.

So, if we no-kill or DK a town D1, I don't think the remaining town members will have enough information on D2 to know if trying to DK a mafia D2 is preferable to a no-kill.

[bozotheclown]

Note that brain is pro kill but is actually trying to solve, whereas bona and bozo appear to have no interest.

I have no interest because I don't think there is anything to solve.

[ghug]

If we no-kill D1 and both mafia successfully recruit N1 (approximately 70% chance), it will be 6-2-2. If one of the original mafia gets DKed D2, the other mafia team is going to be hard to stop, because the lone mafia will not be able to recruit or NK. It would likely be 5-3-1 D3. Also, town will not know if it is 5-3-1 or if the mafia failed to recruit, and they also won't know whether the DKed mafia was an original mafia.

So, if we no-kill or DK a town D1, I don't think the remaining town members will have enough information on D2 to know if trying to DK a mafia D2 is preferable to a no-kill.

These numbers are even worse if we DK a town day one, which has an even greater than 70% chance of happening.

[bozotheclown]

Ok I was hoping y'all would just get this but we're not playing mafia.

Several people have already noted that town is doomed. That's true if we play it like mafia, and it's kind of a feature of the setup. The way town wins this game is by pitting the mafia against each other. Townies can also win this game by being recruited, but my reading of the rules has always been that playing to this outcome runs contrary to playing to one's own win condition (the spectrum of positions on this point kind of undermines the game's whole conceit, which is one of the reasons I'm personally not a fan of recruitment games).

If we kill a townie today, we have less ability to effect our will as the game progresses further. If we kill scum today, there's no counterweight to the other scum team. We go into tomorrow in what's basically a brand new 7v2 mafia game in which we have no PRs, scum has twice as much power as a normal mafia team to reduce the number disparity as long as their leader is alive, and every new recruit is going to lack connections to their teammates. Town is unlikely to win that game. We need the Mafia team to be threats to each other.

We normally kill D1 for two reasons, neither of which applies here:
1. To start getting voting information. Bozo has already pointed out that this doesn't work when the mafia don't have teammates. I'm a little bit shocked Bona didn't notice this.
2. Because our numbers advantage will only get worse over time. This isn't applicable here for the reasons I laid out above.

I agree the 7 vs. 2 game is not favorable for town, but town still needs both mafia teams to be eliminated to win, so I don't think the alternative is any better.

I think the mafia will correctly see town as the least threatening team starting tomorrow, regardless of how many people are still alive, and prioritize killing each other. The 7-2 game, we'll be the only targets. A 6-2-2 game is better than a 5-2-2 game. There's no useful analysis to be done with the vote counts. I just don't see the upside of killing today.

I don't think 6-2-2 is going to be any better than 7-2, and I don't think 5-2-2 is going to be much worse than 6-2-2. If we no-kill D1, I think town only benefits if the mafia recruit the same player, or one or both to try to recruit the other. I think there is a 28% of one of these occurring, so I can see a no-kill if one of these possibilities is preferable to 7-2.

[bozotheclown]

If we no-kill and the mafia try to recruit the same player, I think we are back in the same situation D2, only the town will not know it, so I don't see how that is any better for town.

[ghug]

I agree the 7 vs. 2 game is not favorable for town, but town still needs both mafia teams to be eliminated to win, so I don't think the alternative is any better.

I think the mafia will correctly see town as the least threatening team starting tomorrow, regardless of how many people are still alive, and prioritize killing each other. The 7-2 game, we'll be the only targets. A 6-2-2 game is better than a 5-2-2 game. There's no useful analysis to be done with the vote counts. I just don't see the upside of killing today.

I don't think 6-2-2 is going to be any better than 7-2, and I don't think 5-2-2 is going to be much worse than 6-2-2. If we no-kill D1, I think town only benefits if the mafia recruit the same player, or one or both to try to recruit the other. I think there is a 28% of one of these occurring, so I can see a no-kill if one of these possibilities is preferable to 7-2.

I think both of those possibilities are preferable to 7-2.

[bozotheclown]

If we no-kill and the mafia try to recruit each other, the mafia would know the identity of each other, so that could be a benefit to town, but the mafia would not be able to try to get the other DKed on D2, or NK each other N2, so I am not sure how much it helps town. There is also a very low chance of this happening.

[ghug]

Normal 7-2 is loss at the third miskill. This 7-2 we lose on the second miskill unless we specifically kill the leader D2. Two kills of non-leader mafia and one miskill would also be a loss. It's just not a viable path.

[bozotheclown]

If one mafia tries to recruit the other, it makes it 7-2-1 D2, but the 2 player mafia teams knows the identity of the lone mafia and can NK him N2, which is somewhat better than 7-2, because it ties up the mafia N2 action. Town's best chance here is to DK a mafia from the 2 player team D2, but that is also town's best chance in the 7-2 scenario.

[bozotheclown]

Normal 7-2 is loss at the third miskill. This 7-2 we lose on the second miskill unless we specifically kill the leader D2. Two kills of non-leader mafia and one miskill would also be a loss. It's just not a viable path.

The two ways town can win that I can see are to DK the 2 currently mafia D1 and D2, or to get lucky with the mafia randomly trying to recruit each other and then trying to eliminate each other.

[ghug]

Normal 7-2 is loss at the third miskill. This 7-2 we lose on the second miskill unless we specifically kill the leader D2. Two kills of non-leader mafia and one miskill would also be a loss. It's just not a viable path.

The two ways town can win that I can see are to DK the 2 currently mafia D1 and D2, or to get lucky with the mafia randomly trying to recruit each other and then trying to eliminate each other.

Yes. I'm arguing that the former is unlikely and we should thus be putting our eggs in the latter basket.

[Col7by]

VCA gives us very little because everyone right now is playing with no other knowledge other than their own roles rn. Typically you could try to find scum protecting each other but not on this vote it’s everyone protecting themselves. If you put yourself in the scum shoes is there any reason they’d want no-kill? As long as it’s not themselves they want someone getting killed off in hopes it’s the other mafia or one less town to worry about. Having teammates as scum is good for no-kill because you can night kill but where you have to recruit at night it is not beneficial for them.

[dargorygel]

#GM INFO

Vote Count 1.04
Ghug (4) Haze with a Z, Spirit of the Radio, bozotheclown (endvoting) DiplomacyandWarfare
No-Kill (3) Hamilton Brian, ghug, Col7by
Col7by (2) Yoyoyozo, brainbomb
Diplomacyand Warfare (1) Bonatogether

Day ends in approximately 8 and a half hours.


Intelligence Agencies also appear to have been involved in the Olympics long before the torch ceremony. Analysts in the CIA, for instance, had an interest in which athletes would represent the USA. Some desiring to compete had ‘questionable’ loyalties. Some desiring to compete had ‘desirable’ qualities. Some desiring to compete were perceived as having a better chance to win international favor than their stats up to know indicated.

So the CIA cheated. Paying off time-keepers, other competitors, and even IOC members were common practices during the Cold War Olympics.

[DiplomacyandWarfare]

Over last ten games, town has eliminated a mafia day 1 4/10 tries
If you count sweet being shot by a gun day 1 its 5/10 day 1 occurences in past 10 games.

Thats actually alot better than it used to be

The question is this:
Is town performing better because town is playing better, or because mafia is playing worse?

[DiplomacyandWarfare]

Also, however 3 of those 5 would all be sweet.

Sorry sweet

well I'm sold!
##vote sweetandcool
(I know sweet isnt here but I just had to)

[DiplomacyandWarfare]

Ok I was hoping y'all would just get this but we're not playing mafia.

Several people have already noted that town is doomed. That's true if we play it like mafia, and it's kind of a feature of the setup. The way town wins this game is by pitting the mafia against each other. Townies can also win this game by being recruited, but my reading of the rules has always been that playing to this outcome runs contrary to playing to one's own win condition (the spectrum of positions on this point kind of undermines the game's whole conceit, which is one of the reasons I'm personally not a fan of recruitment games).

If we kill a townie today, we have less ability to effect our will as the game progresses further. If we kill scum today, there's no counterweight to the other scum team. We go into tomorrow in what's basically a brand new 7v2 mafia game in which we have no PRs, scum has twice as much power as a normal mafia team to reduce the number disparity as long as their leader is alive, and every new recruit is going to lack connections to their teammates. Town is unlikely to win that game. We need the Mafia team to be threats to each other.

We normally kill D1 for two reasons, neither of which applies here:
1. To start getting voting information. Bozo has already pointed out that this doesn't work when the mafia don't have teammates. I'm a little bit shocked Bona didn't notice this.
2. Because our numbers advantage will only get worse over time. This isn't applicable here for the reasons I laid out above.

Counterargument:
There are currently 3 teams
after some time, the recruits will turn the game from 7 1 1 to something like 4 3 2 or 3 3 3
At that point, only a small fraction of the players who are currently town have a chance of winning.
If we eliminate a maf today, we eliminate an entire team. That is the main goal in voting today.
This works for the exact reason that there are only one maf on each team.
Starting d2 and onward, maf will likely control around half combined of the players, which will lead to maf having greater control over who is eliminated. Again, the best option for people who are currently town is to kill one maf leader and try to be recruited into the other's faction.