Mafia 1033 - The Next Generation [Hidden]

[ghug]

I feel like this game has been paused while we wait to see if argent is going to show up again. Since we have made it this far into D3 without him requesting a sub, I assume he is still planning on participating.

Is that what we're doing?

I mean, the game has kinda screeched to a halt to I agree with the clown on this one

I don't get the sense that it's about argent, though, and I don't see why we'd let him dictate the whole day by not being here.

[Vecna]

argent is not giving us much to go on, and he ended D1 and D2 keeping his vote on what seemed to be joke votes, so he has not provided any meaningful voting history.

I am still not sure about Red Neurax, he never answered all of my questions about his D1 vote justification, but reviewing his posts, he changed his read on DiplomacyandWarfare D2 in a way that seemed unnecessary for a mafia when DiplomacyandWarfare was still under suspicion (knowing that DiplomacyandWarfare was town).

ghug and Vecna have been interacting is a way that could be distancing, and I think they are reasonable scum candidates based on POE. I also don't like how Vecna has been polling players about me, I get the feeling he was trying to find out if he could get a wagon going on me.

Thats because I was polling players to find out if I could get a wagon going on you. Do you feel that is scummy behaviour?

Also, do you think Ghug would actually try to get a wagon going on me while im AFK on day1 while were scum partners?

This feels like youre looking for reasons to scumread me without actually coming to the conclusion I might be scum naturally.

[Vecna]

I can try persuade you he is probably not scum but it relies on you believing me that I'm town.

Hypothesis: Bona is scum.

So, who are his partners?

arg - unlikely due to D1 voting
bozo - unlikely, D2 voting
darg - unlikely, D1 voting (and if you are scum you know Bona's alignmeny anyway)
ghug - unlikely, both days voting
Will - possible I suppose but does scum Will blatantly switch from bussing his teammate last minute?
Red - unlikely, D2 voting
Vecna - possible
damo - possible from ypov but you just have to trust that I'm town

So, from mpov the ONLY possible triple is Vecna, Will, Bona which on balance I would say is low possibility. I would flip Will sooner than Bona anyway.

Ergo (extremely heavy bussing notwithstanding) Bona is low probabilty scum and if he ain't scum he's town!

Persuaded?

I understand you, at least... thanks, damo.

this guy flips back and forth so much
previously he was saying its me now he says its unlikely to me
additionally, he makes many claims but all of them are paper thin - he has nothing to back it up

ex. saying vecna will bona are a possible trio but then says low possibility without any actual argument

i feel like hes trying to overcompensate

Still quite happy with my red townread.

This is actually quite a spicy take

[Vecna]

ill make it my aim to get a read on Darg and Bozo today.

Darg has been getting too much of a pass for appearing to be solving, but normally by now id have a soulread on him. This has not happened yet so the issue needs to be forced.

Bozo's usual reason to townread him (begrudedly and after a lot of irritation) has not occured either. Time to force the issue.

This game is completely unsolveable for me atm.

I dont know if Bona's wagons were important at all, and its annoyingly a mayor part of discussion and wagonomics this game. I also cannot parse people's reasoning surrounding it, with all the percentages and breakdowns.

Ghug is always bloody unreadable in such situations where he may or may not have been under any pressure at all.

Will is pretty close to unreadable for me in general.

Bona is unreadable for me always.

Argent is unreadable due to participation.

Damo is Damo. Im not sure if this is his scumrange or not, but I think he's capable of this sort of play as either allignment. Also always a terrible player for me to read correctly (last game being an easy departure from the rule because he was playing on the lower/lowest end of his scum capabilities and making way too many uninformed assertions that made no sense).

I really regret killing RDR d1 now because at least he becomes super easy to read later on for me generally.

[Vecna]

conclusion: I dont have any scumreads (only some very minor ones), and I only have 1 townread.

pretty dire situation

[Vecna]

I have a pretty clear idea which 3 are scum.

But I will wait to hear explanations of votes from all four.

Ok?

I think the take-away here of equating tying to potentially scummy behaviour is not great reasoning to begin with.

It could be, especially if it was TvT, to create chaos and hope others panic resulting in a tie.

This exercise wouldve been a lot more fruitfull if it looked into whether the people that voted in the last 2-3 minutes voted inline with their earlier reads, or if it mightve been random to induce chaos. Voting specifically to end the tie should not be seen in a positive manner if it was TvT, which 6 of us do not know.

[Vecna]

Stealing Darg's project to do some further digging, because im all alone here anyway.

---------------

AND THEN THE FUN STUFF STARTS

Damo votes dip 3 dip, 3 bona, 1 red, 1 vecna, 2 argent, 1 damo
*** Damo tied dip and bona, taking bona out of the lead. Why, damo?

VECNA EDIT ON DAMO: totally in-line with his outspoken preference for dip over Bona throughout. HOWEVER, he was already voting dip at the time of this vote, so it really did not change anything. Could be interpreted as a bona save to try and force momentem to dip. edit: wait this was the 25 mins to go vote? eh.

Ghug votes arg 3 dip, 3 bona, 1 red, 1 vecna, 3 argent
***Makes a three way… why, ghug?

VECNA EDIT ON GHUG: this vote was with 17 minutes to go. who gives a fuck about ties or 3ways with 17 minutes to go?

Jamie votes dip 3 dip, 3 bona, 1 red, 1 vecna, 3 argent
Darg votes dip 4 dip, 3 bona, 1 red, 1 vecna, 2 argent
*** I put dip in the lead

Ghug votes bona 4 dip, 4 bona, 1 red, 1 vecna, 1 argent
*** returns it to a tie… why, ghug?

Vecna edit: Vote seems inline with outspoken opinions. He stated earlier he only things dip could be scum if bona was as well.

Damo votes dip 4 dip, 4 bona, 1 red, 1 vecna, 1 argent
*** damo does one of those ‘momentum building’ things… to help bona?

edit: this one was indeed strange, but matches his reads.

Bozo votes bona 4 dip, 5 bona, 1 vecna, 1 argent
*** ends the tie

Vecna edit: slightly telegraphed. In a TvT world this is irrelevant. If bona is scum it obviously looks pretty good on Bozo because then hiding was the better play, and it wouldve been odd to pressure the teammate in the way he did with 2 hours to go, while getting very little out of the vote.

Vecna votes dip 5 dip, 5 bona, 1 vecna
*** ties the vote again. Why, vecna?

Vecna answer; I was suspicious of D&W. I dont care about the risk of tying it and seeing last minute movements is always desireable anyway.

Just votes bon 5 dip, 5 bona, 1 vecna
*** just was already voting bona.

Just votes dip 6 dip, 4 bona, 1 vecna
*** just switches to dip. Was he confused about a bussing vote… and switched to the townie to end?

Vecna edit: seems to be just what it was; voting to avoid the tie. NAI in a TvT world.



-------

Really doesnt feel like anything too usefull can be gleaned from this. Noone acted outside of their stated preferences.

Contrary to what I thought before, it also doesnt really teach us all that much if Bona is indeed scum besides the obvious voting scum is good (besides that itd look slightly worse on me, but that would be a false conclusion regardless, and that Bozo looks quite a bit better for the timing). If bona is town, it gives us even less information.

[Vecna]

Ive done a bit of a deeper-dive into Darg in his Bona vs DIP devellopments;

Darg, can you explain why you felt Bona started to look better as d2 progressed? Maybe point at some specifics where his behaviour was more town indicative versus where it made you suspicious?

Your sudden change looked strange in a vacuum, since your only other reason for talking about dip earlier was you stating you liked the cases he was producing.

[Vecna]

After reading through damo's progression some more I cannot but help to think it all makes a lot of sense from a town damo POV.

His analysis of how a scumteam with Bona on it makes no sense might not be 100% accurate, but I just dont see that coming from a scum Damo. Its very detailled, and internally extremely consistent.

[Vecna]

A bona/darg/damo scumteam fits very well, but it fits too well.

Also it does match their behaviour; How darg thread around Bona is very easily explained by keeping all bussing options availlable, backpeddling last second while its a serious contender, and instantly switching back to scumreading them N2 and D3. HOWEVER, the inconsistency, constant flipping back and forth, is not a way I would expect scum to be able to play it out. It feels too genuine. So either Darg is scum, with Bona being town, or Darg is actually town trying to figure out wtf is going on.

Damo is on the complete other side of the spectrum; Full on certainty and convictions. We've seen this before from Damo. It cannot be ruled out he does this as scum, but its such a balls to the wall approach that I cannot help but find it unfeasable.

Its very understandable that RED sees it as scummy, and wants to see the pairing there.

I choose for now, because of a lack of better stuff to go on, to find everything in the above analyzed players behaviour to be MUCH MORE LIKELY to come from town.

Its quite possible im wrong in it somewhere in the assumptions made, but I dont think im wrong on most of it.

[Vecna]

as an additional note; please take note how the above analysis is different from Bozo.

Looking at whats possible versus what is likely. Draw your own conclusions and tell me what you think.

[Vecna]

I think the scumteam is WILL + ARGENT + BOZO

Ghug could potentially substitute for any of them. -maybe- Bona could as well. Damo's analysis is flawed, but that doesnt mean it has to be wrong in its conclusion.

[Vecna]

Rereading WILL also makes him appear really quite towny.

Which does not say a lot, because his scumplay has proved in the past to 100% work to fool me, every time.

But in the kill-priority, i definately would not put him at the top currently.

[Vecna]

I feel like ive put in some good effort here, and it should serve as a decent apology for being absent so much this game.

Id like to interact a bit more with certain people later on today to try and narrow in to see if my theories have any merit.

[BunnyGo]

Captains log stardate 54022.1:

The Enterprise remains in a state of disarray, our crew fractured by an unseen influence that has sown mistrust and paranoia. Lieutenant Barclay is still unaccounted for, trapped within a malfunctioning holodeck, and Chief O’Brien remains in transporter suspension.

Compounding these challenges, Commander La Forge has just reported that Lieutenant Commander Data has been rendered offline due to an apparent accident during their attempt to rescue Barclay. Data’s absence is a critical blow to our efforts, as his unique abilities and impartiality have been a cornerstone of our problem-solving efforts.

The growing paranoia among the crew has left us scrambling for answers. Riker and I remain isolated on the bridge, aware that every passing moment brings us closer to losing control of the ship entirely. The cause of this phenomenon remains elusive, but it is clear that the danger to the Enterprise is not only external—but within ourselves.


argent (2) damo666 bozotheclown
damo666 (2) ghug Red Neurax
JustAGuyNamedWill (1) Bonatogether
Bonatogether (1) dargorygel


Day 3 ends in about 11.5 hours

Currently nobody is set to be assimilated by the borg

Argent has neither posted nor voted

Just and Vecna have not voted

Anyone not meeting minimum requirements will be replaced.

[Vecna]

##vote argent

just in case rl gets in the way again (which is definately possible).

[dargorygel]

Ok… light of day… last night, I switched from bona to argent. I am sorta wondering why vecna did not ask me about that in his darg-deep-dive. But maybe it was obvious.
I do not understand why I am struggling so hard this game. But I do think that when I struggle, I tinfoil.
I do not have any firm townreads. Which I usually do. I might often be wrong, but I have someone that I trust. No such being has emerged for me this game. But I also do not have any strong scum-reads.
Considering my train of suspicions in this game.
I got off track (and maybe still am…) about Red’s entrance. I had imagined it was some sort of accidental ‘posting in the wrong place’ thing. (When Red did not answer my enquiries, it made me even more sure my tinfoil hat was actually a wizard’s cone).
From there, bona (and ghug) came in with what felt like a fake personal animosity. But they were both reaching out to Suspicious Red. For most of D1, that was my underlying premise, and everything else hinged on that.
Later, when Red revealed what was going on, I believed them. But I kept thinking of two occasions where I was caught as scum for the wrong reasons. (One in particular, where I think worcej? He harped on the fact that I was on at the beginning of the game, in which scum had a pre-game chat. I was on at that time dealing with a siteMod issue, NOT in the chat. But I was scum).
But by that time, I was tunneling bona. (sorry, bona) And as tunnels usually are, I couldn’t get clear of it.
I do not see him solving. I see him socializing in this game. Other than the EoD when he was on the block.
Last night, I moved from argent to bona because I wasn’t feeling anything, anymore. So I went back to my base for this game.
I also knew that I would be busy-ish today, and wanted my vote to be where atm I would be happiest if the game ended there.

The room has gone dead, which either means that scum is satisfied with the state of empty-chaos… or we townies are all as stuck and unsure as I am. Maybe trying to ACT secure with pronouncements… but nothing really solid… or even puddingy.

Regarding my Project… I felt briefly all feelings-hurt after no one liked it. I had never done such a thing (my M.O. is a legal pad with arrows, circles, and symbols… difficult to articulate and to post). And I presented it on the foundation of a false premise. I STILL believe it is useful, if bona turns out to be scum. While reasons WHY these votes happened is indeed very important, this was the exact reason I asked folk to comment on WHY they voted. A couple people did. But the false premise was that BONA IS SCUM. And I really do not have confidence in that anymore.

Now I will try to respond, before students arrive, with some of the comments overnight/this morning.

[dargorygel]

I have a pretty clear idea which 3 are scum.

But I will wait to hear explanations of votes from all four.

Ok?

I think the take-away here of equating tying to potentially scummy behaviour is not great reasoning to begin with.

It could be, especially if it was TvT, to create chaos and hope others panic resulting in a tie.

This exercise wouldve been a lot more fruitfull if it looked into whether the people that voted in the last 2-3 minutes voted inline with their earlier reads, or if it mightve been random to induce chaos. Voting specifically to end the tie should not be seen in a positive manner if it was TvT, which 6 of us do not know.

It is only scummy behavior if it is to save bona. And I had in heart, if not mind, that the scumteam was feeling VERY proud of themselves that no one was standout scum in the eyes of the room... so they wanted a clean sweep and were willing to work hard to save bona. As it is, yeah... not so useful.

[dargorygel]

Stealing Darg's project to do some further digging, because im all alone here anyway.

---------------

AND THEN THE FUN STUFF STARTS

Damo votes dip 3 dip, 3 bona, 1 red, 1 vecna, 2 argent, 1 damo
*** Damo tied dip and bona, taking bona out of the lead. Why, damo?

VECNA EDIT ON DAMO: totally in-line with his outspoken preference for dip over Bona throughout. HOWEVER, he was already voting dip at the time of this vote, so it really did not change anything. Could be interpreted as a bona save to try and force momentem to dip. edit: wait this was the 25 mins to go vote? eh.

Ghug votes arg 3 dip, 3 bona, 1 red, 1 vecna, 3 argent
***Makes a three way… why, ghug?

VECNA EDIT ON GHUG: this vote was with 17 minutes to go. who gives a fuck about ties or 3ways with 17 minutes to go?

Jamie votes dip 3 dip, 3 bona, 1 red, 1 vecna, 3 argent
Darg votes dip 4 dip, 3 bona, 1 red, 1 vecna, 2 argent
*** I put dip in the lead

Ghug votes bona 4 dip, 4 bona, 1 red, 1 vecna, 1 argent
*** returns it to a tie… why, ghug?

Vecna edit: Vote seems inline with outspoken opinions. He stated earlier he only things dip could be scum if bona was as well.

Damo votes dip 4 dip, 4 bona, 1 red, 1 vecna, 1 argent
*** damo does one of those ‘momentum building’ things… to help bona?

edit: this one was indeed strange, but matches his reads.

Bozo votes bona 4 dip, 5 bona, 1 vecna, 1 argent
*** ends the tie

Vecna edit: slightly telegraphed. In a TvT world this is irrelevant. If bona is scum it obviously looks pretty good on Bozo because then hiding was the better play, and it wouldve been odd to pressure the teammate in the way he did with 2 hours to go, while getting very little out of the vote.

Vecna votes dip 5 dip, 5 bona, 1 vecna
*** ties the vote again. Why, vecna?

Vecna answer; I was suspicious of D&W. I dont care about the risk of tying it and seeing last minute movements is always desireable anyway.

Just votes bon 5 dip, 5 bona, 1 vecna
*** just was already voting bona.

Just votes dip 6 dip, 4 bona, 1 vecna
*** just switches to dip. Was he confused about a bussing vote… and switched to the townie to end?

Vecna edit: seems to be just what it was; voting to avoid the tie. NAI in a TvT world.



-------

Really doesnt feel like anything too usefull can be gleaned from this. Noone acted outside of their stated preferences.

Contrary to what I thought before, it also doesnt really teach us all that much if Bona is indeed scum besides the obvious voting scum is good (besides that itd look slightly worse on me, but that would be a false conclusion regardless, and that Bozo looks quite a bit better for the timing). If bona is town, it gives us even less information.

I still think it is useful IF bona turns out to be scum. But without REASONS, you are right. It is less useful.

[dargorygel]

Ive done a bit of a deeper-dive into Darg in his Bona vs DIP devellopments;

Darg, can you explain why you felt Bona started to look better as d2 progressed? Maybe point at some specifics where his behaviour was more town indicative versus where it made you suspicious?

Your sudden change looked strange in a vacuum, since your only other reason for talking about dip earlier was you stating you liked the cases he was producing.

Bona looked better because my suspicion of him was not based on anything real, I suppose. He also did not (other than one pouty face) really argue with me. Of course I didn't give him much to argue WITH. It was the old guts thing. But I felt like scum bona would more likely get personally attacking me. Instead, he focused on others. Maybe hoping I would stop being silly. I did not move FROM scumreading him... it softened a lot though. Also I didn't have any confidence in anywhere else to vote. I might have been sheeping through that time. Sort of following along with what I was reading.

To say, "dip felt odd' would describe how I felt about him... but I could not really articulate why. Still can't.

One example where my Scumming bona didn't seem to matter to him, is when he responded here:

I did not notice how strongly Just declared his protection... 3 days?

An then... I don't see anywhere he DID any such protection. I might have missed it though.


Wondering if, because Just knew the newbies were town, he felt extra safe protecting them...

... and also, what scum would NOT want two newbies guaranteed still in the game on d3?

yeah i think it's a more strong protection than he has previously declared, as i said earlier, and it's not clear to me why new players merit that much protection. sometimes they're scum, and sometimes they're not. i haven't thought much about will but i could easily see it being poor townplay

It seemed that he was interested (in a real seeming way) in discussing things OTHER than just his own wagon. I liked that.