Mafia 47 - The Sixth Mass Extinction - GAME THREAD [HIDDEN]

[foodcoats]

Okay I'm trying not to tunnel here, and maybe my perspective is already wrecked, but I just started D4 and this sequence occurs in relatively short order:

I’m alive!

##Vote Bozo

What an interesting choice. Why would the scum team be PR hunting when there are 3 clears?

Maybe their roleblocker is under threat and they could not be sure they would be able to kill or roleblock both the Doc and the Cop on night 4?

@Xorx - what about the Tracker? That seems like a relevant role.

I don't know if a massclaim is the best or worst idea. I suppose mafia probably has most of the important stuff figured out already though (with the Jailer, Doctor dead and Masons out).

I'll defer to whatever Tom and Fox and Hosuke think, since it's not really a relevant question for me as my role is already public knowledge.

Oh, I hadn't read that the Tracker was only a limited-use. The Tracker should definitely claim at some point then, we could maybe find the Hooker (which is the only role we're sure about given Vapor was definitely roleblocked).

This is like 16 minutes later:

I'm the tracker. All that "maf has tracker stuff" last night was a (successful) attempt to avoid getting roleblocked.

Xorxes did not visit anyone on N2. I chose xorxes because he was one of my top scumreads. I scaled back my read knowing that he stayed at home.
1. Assuming ant & knowing that hooker visited Vapor, xorxes is 40% less likely to be maf.
2. Assuming no ant & knowing that hooker visited Vapor, xorxes is 20% less likely to be maf.

Bozotheclown did not visit anyone N3. I chose bozo because he was the most popular scumread. If he visited anyone, it would have been easy to lead a lunch against him.
1. Assuming ant & assuming hooker visited someone, bozo is 40% less likely to be maf.
2. Assuming no ant & assuming hooker visited someone, bozo is 20% less likely to be maf.
3. Assuming no ant & assuming hooker did not visit someone (i.e. scum claims roleblocked), bozo is 0% less likely to be maf.

Notes:
While I still think the DP smokescreen was worth it, I mostly used it as an excuse to do a tracker smokescreen the following night without attracting the attention of the mafia.

I voted Vapor because of the tracker ambiguity & his hard town stance on me.

Chaqa innocuously hems and haws about the tracker and also links it to the roleblock. Darg claimed they were roleblocked when they counterclaimed, but they WERE the RB. I... don't know what to make of this.

That said... what seems even more interesting is EP claiming they tracked bozo for being widely scumread. Bozo was tied for third wagon; they were never the largest wagon on D3. Worcej had 6 votes at one point, bozo had max 4.

And, Chaqa randomly voted for bozo at the beginning of the day. I didn't see any real reason Chaqa gave for voting bozo on D3, though they had mentioned scumreading bozo (and darg and bo_sox). Good-cop bad-cop EP and Chaqa on their scumbuddy bozo?

Alright, I'll try to extract myself from the EP tunnel and go back to other Chaqa/darg stuff.

[bo_sox48]

That's a lot of posting but not a lot of voting.
You have several scumreads, don't you care to vote for any of them?

Nope, not yet. I would like to partake in some more discussion first this evening.

Reading between the lines here: bo_sox is saying he'd rather wait it out a bit before standing behind a vote. Scum trying to blend in.

How is it blending in? I'm perfectly open about what I'm planning to do, but I don't see the reason to throw my vote around for "pressure" or any other status symbol of sorts today. There's no point in that. My vote as it lands tonight is where it will likely stay.

@bo_sox you misrepresented my day posts bcz you're scum and need a reason to keep your fake tunnel on me.

I was very clear that I would vote anyone but worcej or clears. Jamie proposed bozo so I happily joined.

I don't see how I misrepresented your posts. I actually quoted your votes and EOD shenanigans instead of simply saying "EP did this at XX:XX, and Jamie did this at XX:XX" in a bulleted list, which is how I usually treat voting and EOD trends. I've tried to do less of that since the new forum came out for exactly that reason. Contrary to your assertion, I simply pointed out a noteworthy trend between you and Jamie in the last four hours of D6. Are you bothered by it?

The other post of yours I quoted is out of context, you're absolutely right. Foodcoats was the common denominator among those who posted reads at EON, and thus there is good reason that at least some of those folks would vote for him. There was not, however, good reason to simply park your vote, which you did, or to simply "worry about sorting the other two once foodcoats flips" on LYLO, which you said. Feel free to clarify to me how that has been misrepresented and more importantly why that isn't scummy as fuck.

[foodcoats]

Alright, maybe darg was just scatterbrained scum and I'm wrong about EP. There is a taste of sheer desperation in this.

And so last night...
They say...
(THEY WOULD NOT SAY)

I know... let's send in DARG to fake claim. You know, the guy who on bozo's list is the most scumread.
\
You know, the guy who has never fakeclaimed EVER in mafia.
You know, the guy who only claimed PR ONCE when he had to provfe it right away by shooting some people.

And even THEN he sounded like scum.

Let's send HIM in to fake a claim.

BRILLIANT PLAN... stupid town will NEVER see it coming!

And let''s have him present NO cogent plan... an off the cuff desparate sounding thing that is bland.
(BECAUSE I DIDN"T PLAN ON CLAIMING YET! DO YOU REALLY THINK SO LITTLE OF ME THAT YOU THINK I WOULD CLAIM LIKE THAT????)

OR...
or
or

Let's send in someone with a written up organized formatted reasonable (although not crumbed... because we didn't think of that back then.) SOmeone not scumread much. Someone who can come in and look GOOD.

Which do you really think, oh bright townclears and the rest of you... which do you think is the more likely plan thatTHIS SCUM team would come up with?

[foodcoats]

I'm also seeing this Bozo-worcej connection. And the fact they're pushing Espresso over Dargo makes me very suspicious of this whole ordeal.

Okay, so Chaqa is here soft-claiming bozo-worcej are scum, when they definitely knew that worcej was town, and was effectively saying they thought darg was scum and Espresso the real tracker. Maybe just to distance themselves from darg? I think if we had lynched one of the tracker claimants D4 Chaqa could've at least maintained their towniness by more or less distancing from both claimants with this post.

But maybe more importantly, Chaqa is trying to smear both worcej and bozo here. Is Chaqa going to bus bozo at the same time they're bussing darg? I'm thinking no... more like taking potshots at town.

[foodcoats]

I understand the argument for lynching me, but I disagree with it on a few counts. The minor one being I don't want to be lynched, but I do understand there will be a point where it may be preferable to another option if we really don't know who a mafia member is.

BUT

It isn't the town winning play. It's the town not-losing play. We have like one mislynch available to us and we have at least one scum confirmed in EP/Dargo. We should be taking that confirmed 50/50. And if we flip one of them, this whole puzzle should come unraveling.

Maybe that's why you're pushing me, because you're afraid when Dargo flips scum you will be implicated?

Chaqa is pretty set on bussing darg. Also on shading worcej.

[foodcoats]

Okay, here it is.

I am the ORACLE. Highly ironic, given my real life handsomeness, that I would have to play as such an ugly creature as the Anglerfish, but such is life.

I crumbed my role on page 50 when I mentioned Ceefax. Ceefax was a British television-based "teletext" information system, almost a precursor to some of the basic functions of the internet, but accessed via a television signal where appropriately equipped television sets could display up to 999 indexed, regularly updated pages of news, weather, sports, entertainment, cookery, listings, etc.

Ceefax was one of two rival UK teletext systems. The other system was called...

**ORACLE**

That was my crumb.

I also softed my role a couple of times, like on page 149 where I listed a bunch of roles in lower case, but I used an initial capital letter for "Oracle".

I am currently set to reveal Xorxes if I am killed.

Agreeing with someone's analysis does not mean I'm sheeping. If you look at most of my xorxes interactions this game, I've done anything but sheep him.

To me, "I think xorxes raises good points on you" means that I align with his reasoning (ie. your apparent DP use was either stupid or scummy). Didn't think I'd have to spell that one out.

Assuming I am town for a moment, why is it stupid?

DP is a role which in this setup, *must* be used in N1, it cannot be held for later use.

Have you played a lot of Mafia? How often do you have confirmed scumreads by N1 that turn out to be completely accurate? How often have you turned out to be wrong about your reads?

I was genuinely concerned to limit the potential damage to town of stripping away the powers of the cop or doctor or another potentially useful role like, let's say, the Oracle.

Why is that stupid?

Re-reading this, obviously I still can't 100% say Jamie has proved they are the oracle (Oracle) and not fakeclaiming, but it is interesting that bozo has advanced an argument to undermine the claim without seemingly investigating the subsidiary post that Jamie advanced. Jamie made pains to have backup proof for their claim in addition to the Ceefax/Oracle thing. I guess to know for sure whether bozo's argument is legitimate is to see if Jamie also wrote out the power roles somewhere else and capitalized Absorber for the shell suit claim, etc.

Right now I townread Jamie, mostly because... I haven't found anything Jamie has done that looks scummy.

[foodcoats]

Also, everyone realizes it is equally likely the missing claim is Absorber, right?

Possible, but the mafia could safely claim absorber, so that would mean they decided to counterclaim tracker, with either one or two scum in the tracker claims, instead of simply claiming absorber. Considering no scum had been lynched yet, and there was no reason to believe dargorygel was at risk of getting lynched D4, I doubt they would take that risk unnecessarily.

There was also no need to claim at all since the push to mass claim had died. That is why using the smokescreen as an explanation of why darg claimed tracker against town!Espresso is weak: there are multiple reasons that it might not have been part of their reasoning at all.

[foodcoats]

Heads up I won't be here at EOD tomorrow... it's a long weekend here and I have a family thing. I'll try to sneak a peek when I can.

I'm feeling like bozo is scum now (from a few things from D4 but in particular the incredibly fine mincing of Jamie's claim, despite that it was rather robust), making my scumteam EP, bo_sox and bozo. I'm not sure if they actually fit together; I think bozo fits best with Chaqa and darg based on what I read today, but I don't know if my three reads fit with each other now. I'm going to read D6 tomorrow... I won't be able to do D5 in time and I think the worcej mislynch is probably an interesting read.

I think bo_sox has better consensus than EP, and I do think bo has been scummy all game long. I don't think it is the absolute best vote, but I think it is a very good one.

##VOTE bo_sox48

However, there is also one other person here...

[foodcoats]

So my scum pool is bo_sox, bozo, food and Jamiet. So if I can figure out who is the town in those four, we have our scum team.

I am liking bozo's reasoning at the moment. It is a bit weird how Chaqa, food AND bo all worked in unison on EP. If I follow my scum pool AT LEAST one of these two are scum, if not both. Would scum be that dumb though to all pile on the one person like this? Possibly. Is there one here which I would see as more likely (even slightly) to be town than the other? I think food has been trying hard for a while now to get EP mislynched. bo has been a bit distant and not really in the game. Last game I played with him he was the same and he tunneled me like he is tunneling EP now and he wouldn't hear an argument otherwise. If he really is town, I hope he can quickly get out of the tunnel, but I think bozo is right and he is probably scum, especially if you throw in the bulletproof claim too - he should have made use of it day 1. There is no reason for bulletproof other than to take the bullet and make a town clear.

Jamiet vs. bozo or Jamiet and bozo? - This is hard because I wasn't really scum reading either of them, but since I am pretty confident about EP, AT LEAST one of these two is scum. For Jamiet to be scum, he has to have faked the Oracle claim. I guess that could make sense. Perhaps worcej was right but his methods were faulty? And I think bozo's reasoning has gotten better as the game has progressed, though he is probably the best player remaining.

Long story short, I think bozo and EP are probably right. The last three are likely food, Jamiet and bo. If I have to make the choice now, I will go with the one I would follow my current strongest townread who I think is voting for my strongest scumread. So this means:

##VOTE foodcoats

Is this for real? I think this is more words than you have contributed to the entire game. It's particularly interesting that you show up with this new level of commitment now at mylo.

I am worried that flash has slipped completely under the radar by posting essentially nothing all game. flash is definitely the 4th scum on my list... I don't have anything incriminating against flash except the fact that flash is obviously capable of contributing and has chosen not to do so the entire game until now.

I'm going to have to make sure to do my next reading with flash in mind.

[foodcoats]

Oh shit, I'm the lead wagon.

I really do not want to lose the game, and there are 4 others of you who should also not want to lose in this stupid way, so please don't lynch me. I am town.

Is there any argument against me? Other than making a cogent argument against EP? Honestly, how am I scum except that I want to lynch one of the main participants in the scummiest ploy that has been pulled so far in this game?

If you have questions, ask them.

And flash, EP, and bozo: give a reason I'm scum OTHER than the fact that I want to lynch EP. I already eviscerated EP's shitty, literally lying iso.

If you have questions or concerns, bring them up now... I'll be back on here between 8-12 AM EST.

[bo_sox48]

Heads up I won't be here at EOD tomorrow... it's a long weekend here and I have a family thing. I'll try to sneak a peek when I can.

I'm feeling like bozo is scum now (from a few things from D4 but in particular the incredibly fine mincing of Jamie's claim, despite that it was rather robust), making my scumteam EP, bo_sox and bozo. I'm not sure if they actually fit together; I think bozo fits best with Chaqa and darg based on what I read today, but I don't know if my three reads fit with each other now. I'm going to read D6 tomorrow... I won't be able to do D5 in time and I think the worcej mislynch is probably an interesting read.

I think bo_sox has better consensus than EP, and I do think bo has been scummy all game long. I don't think it is the absolute best vote, but I think it is a very good one.

##VOTE bo_sox48

However, there is also one other person here...

Hedgy mchedgeface

[bozotheclown]

Can you imagine a situation in which I'm not scum?
Who is the scumteam in that situation?

Do you think bo_sox is being bussed?

I'm the only person voting for him.
I'm town.
So, no, I don't.
I think the Bo_Sox wagon is 100% town.

I was not talking about his wagon, I was talking about the fact that all 5 other nonclears list him in their scum reads.

[bozotheclown]

So my scumteam is EP/bozo/Jamiet, but I can't really say that I townread bo or food. I'm most certain about EP.

This came a full 20 minutes before EON. Why exactly do people think he died over Foxcastle or Hosuke? Is it because his reads were fucking spot on?

2/3 minimum. 3/3 maximum. Pay the man, easy game.

Maybe, or maybe the mafia were trying to lock in his reads so they could refer to this post to get a mislynch.

[bozotheclown]

bo_sox and foodcoats, can you explain why you are not scum conspiring with Chaqa to get Espresso lynched along with dargorygel?

Yes, I can. My role PM says I'm not. Why are you so vehemently against lynching Espresso despite my case against him?

If you read all my post so far D7, you would know why. I am not convinced the mafia had 2 scum claim tracker, then had 2 scum argue that both tracker claimants should be lynched.

[bozotheclown]

I would hope not to be so transparently coordinated with my team if I were scum.

Just to reiterate... the reason I think Espresso is scum is because a TvS tracker claim/counterclaim has no benefit to scum whatsoever. If we had lynched Espresso and they flipped town, we'd have lynched darg. A 1 for 1 trade seems negative value for scum.

That is why I asked earlier if darg and Chaqa are known to be bad players. Call me an asshole, but the only way I can think the tracker thing was TvS is if the scum team is dumb. But, at the time the claim was made, we had mislynched twice in a row, they had a cow, and it is at least possible that EP is the human. I mean, look at the darg/EP wagons, they were 9-3!! darg did a great job of looking scummy AF. Doing that push there could've been their strategy to close the game.

I agree dargorygel was obviously going to be lynched first, but what if the plan was to get both lynched? Chaqa was the first to bring up the 2 scum theory, why do you think he would bring it up if both were scum?

Why would scum plan on sacrificing one of their own to get the tracker mislynched after he came out with nothing that could have been even remotely incriminating at all instead of staying silent and then killing him?

Maybe because they did not have anyone able to claim DP.

[bozotheclown]

@Espresso: you argue that scum were forced to counterclaim someone because none of them were able to claim DP, and so they were one fakerole short.

I think that's a reasonable argument, and it applies whether the other Tracker claimant is town or scum, in both cases they decided that the counterclaim gambit was preferrable to claiming DP. Claiming Absorber would have been relatively harmless as far as I can tell.

So, the people unable to claim DP were:

bo_sox (refused)
worcej (refused)

It's hard to believe that the real DP wouldn't have used this opportunity to reveal their target.

dargorygel (complete) [Brain]

Brain had already proven that he was not the target, so dargo here was essentially saying "I am not the DP". You have to admit that this would clear dargo if your hypothesis is true and if we believe that dargo understood what was going on. It is not clear that dargo understood the consequences though.

EspressoPatronum (complete) [damo]
foodcoats (complete) [damo]

Damo never said anything that I noticed about having lost his power, so these two were also very unlikely to get away with a DP claim. The fact that they made it would suggest they were not planning to claim DP, or did not realize what their claim entailed.

Jamie (complete) [Jamie]

If Jamie was planning to claim DP, he may have changed his mind after we said his choice was idiotic.

flash (complete) [bo_sox]

flash was unable to claim DP if bo_sox is town (unless there's something bo_sox hasn't told us). But they could not have known this at the time that the counterclaims were made. So it seems that flash was at least potentially a candidate to claim DP. This makes flash look good.

bozo (complete) [chaqa]

Now that we know that Chaqa is scum, we know that if bozo was scum he would have been free to claim DP. This makes bozo look good.

In conclusion:

flash and bozo get townie points based on this explanation for the cc.

bo_sox, worcej, Espresso, foodcoats, dargo and Jamie get either townie points, or idiot-scum points for backing themselves against a wall. Is that what you were saying before?

The fact that you brought this up yourself would suggest you had thought about it and so you would have not made the claim you made, or you may be double-bluffing.

This post from xorxes about Espresso's DP smokescreen shows why the mafia would avoid claiming DP if Jamie, bo_sox, and foodcoats are the remaining scum. Also, it shows that most of the scum candidates were unprepared for their DP claim, which points to Espresso as town.

You do realize that there are 21 roles and 20 players, thus even if the mafia received 6 fake claims to choose from they would not be forced to use them all, right? This actually might be a decent question for the GMs to answer, but at this point I don't care enough to send them a message.

Yes, and we know that between DP and absorber, one was a scum fake role and the other was role 21. My guess is that if aboorber was the scum fake role, a scum would have claimed it.

[bozotheclown]

Also, everyone realizes it is equally likely the missing claim is Absorber, right?

This is a good point. If scum were, as bozo suggested, not prepared for a DP claim and also not going to use an absorber claim, it makes a whole hell of a lot of sense that two scum would be planning on countering each other with a tracker claim.

When the tracker claims were made, if the mafia were avoiding claiming DP, they would not know that absorber was the missing role.

[bozotheclown]

So it seems that some people scumread me at this crucial point in play:

- Bozotheclown - declared he scumreads me P.254 and votes for me.

- Flash - declared he scumreads me on P.256 but votes for Foodcoast.

- Bo_Sox - declares he scumreads me on P.257, has not voted yet.


On the other hand:

- EspressoPatronum - declares me a townread on P.256.

- Foodcoats - I guess he doesn't scumread me but that's not entirely clear. He's voting for EP.


Of the 5 unclears other than me (and I know I'm town), three have declared I'm scum. What I need to try to work out is, is this because:

a) They're misguided town, like Xorxes and Worcej were, or:
b) They're scum who regard me as the most likely mislynch...

I'm not certain how to sort you yet, but I would rather go for foodcoats or bo_sox before you.

The meta thing I mentioned earlier has me leaning town for you. I haven't finished it though, so it's subject to change.

You have too many towns then. If you think Jamie is town, who is the third scum?

[bozotheclown]

Okay, here it is.

I am the ORACLE. Highly ironic, given my real life handsomeness, that I would have to play as such an ugly creature as the Anglerfish, but such is life.

I crumbed my role on page 50 when I mentioned Ceefax. Ceefax was a British television-based "teletext" information system, almost a precursor to some of the basic functions of the internet, but accessed via a television signal where appropriately equipped television sets could display up to 999 indexed, regularly updated pages of news, weather, sports, entertainment, cookery, listings, etc.

Ceefax was one of two rival UK teletext systems. The other system was called...

**ORACLE**

That was my crumb.

I also softed my role a couple of times, like on page 149 where I listed a bunch of roles in lower case, but I used an initial capital letter for "Oracle".

I am currently set to reveal Xorxes if I am killed.

Agreeing with someone's analysis does not mean I'm sheeping. If you look at most of my xorxes interactions this game, I've done anything but sheep him.

To me, "I think xorxes raises good points on you" means that I align with his reasoning (ie. your apparent DP use was either stupid or scummy). Didn't think I'd have to spell that one out.

Assuming I am town for a moment, why is it stupid?

DP is a role which in this setup, *must* be used in N1, it cannot be held for later use.

Have you played a lot of Mafia? How often do you have confirmed scumreads by N1 that turn out to be completely accurate? How often have you turned out to be wrong about your reads?

I was genuinely concerned to limit the potential damage to town of stripping away the powers of the cop or doctor or another potentially useful role like, let's say, the Oracle.

Why is that stupid?

Re-reading this, obviously I still can't 100% say Jamie has proved they are the oracle (Oracle) and not fakeclaiming, but it is interesting that bozo has advanced an argument to undermine the claim without seemingly investigating the subsidiary post that Jamie advanced. Jamie made pains to have backup proof for their claim in addition to the Ceefax/Oracle thing. I guess to know for sure whether bozo's argument is legitimate is to see if Jamie also wrote out the power roles somewhere else and capitalized Absorber for the shell suit claim, etc.

Right now I townread Jamie, mostly because... I haven't found anything Jamie has done that looks scummy.

The second reference Jamie cited was after N1, when the mafia first had the chance to assign fake claim roles.

[bozotheclown]

Also, everyone realizes it is equally likely the missing claim is Absorber, right?

Possible, but the mafia could safely claim absorber, so that would mean they decided to counterclaim tracker, with either one or two scum in the tracker claims, instead of simply claiming absorber. Considering no scum had been lynched yet, and there was no reason to believe dargorygel was at risk of getting lynched D4, I doubt they would take that risk unnecessarily.

There was also no need to claim at all since the push to mass claim had died. That is why using the smokescreen as an explanation of why darg claimed tracker against town!Espresso is weak: there are multiple reasons that it might not have been part of their reasoning at all.

xorxes was pushing to make sure the mass claim happened D4, I am sure the mafia were prepared for that. If no one pushed for the mass claim, we might not have had tracker counterclaims D4.