Mafia 47 - The Sixth Mass Extinction - GAME THREAD [HIDDEN]

[Jamiet99uk]

I'm going to have no choice but to ##VOTE WORCEJ to ensure the human can't force my mislynch.

[foodcoats]

Now that I am putting effort into this read of xorxes, these are my factors why I am inclined to think he is scum at this point and that EP and Jamie are dependent on this situation:

1. If xorxes is scum, then the gamble on double scum tracker claims makes sense because they are trying to generate a clear for later on D4. They know xorxes is facing potential death on D7, so they need another late game guy to make it and making a semi-clear to hopefully ride it out is the most plausible. The thing they probably didn't expect was the push and eventual lynch of Chaqa.
2. xorxes defended and tried to protect Chaqa on D4 pretty hard - this was seen in his bad math, statements like 'I want Tom to live longer, thus Chaqa shouldn't be lynched' (which made no sense), countering bozo's arguments, and kept fighting the scum reads people put on him during the end as he defended chaqa.
3. xorxes also fits scum at this point because the push he made on the masons to reveal themselves (and create clears) which allows the scum to keep a pool of suspects around (such as myself, food, flash, bo, and bozo) around to spread doubt around about.
4. If you look at xorxes most of this game, he hasn't really been driving anything. Using analogy, he has been that more annoying 'backseat driver' that pokes at you about how you're driving instead of telling you where to go. He asks questions, pokes at the responses, dismisses some pushes, but what case has he built himself? I can't seem to find much in this game.

So yeah, there you go. I choose scum!xorxes over town!xorxes. It fits the mold pretty well. And I think he's desperate to set a mislynch up right now because he knows he is fucked on D7.

If xorxes is scum, I will never let this community live it down, because in the only other game I played here, I pegged him as scum and he was but he was never lynched and he won it (Mini Mafia IV I think?), and in this game I was calling for xorxes days ago and no one cared. (Although, that was largely because I found the early claim to innocent child suspect, because strategically it is a total waste of the PR ability to claim it so early, whereas other folks have pointed out that waiting to D7 is not all that crazy.... and it has been proven that D7 is indeed a thing that can happen, I have just never played with 20 people before. [But it is still a total waste of the strategic value to town of being inno child.])

But at this point, lynching xorxes is ridiculous and any analysis is essentially irrelevant, because tomorrow is either Lynch Xorxes Day or Mayor Xorxes Day.

And given that you are Arithmeticus, Lord of Math, King of All Equations, why are you now turning around and proposing this? Assuming xorxes is scum, we should be trying to get a different scum today because we are guaranteed scum!xorxes tomorrow. It's patently ridiculous for you to be scumming xorxes now. If anyone is desperate, it appears to be you.

[foodcoats]

So can I ask the thought provoking question - what are you guys going to think/do next once I flip town?

If you are lynched and flip town, I will again push to lynch EP.

I think from a probabalistic standpoint, EP is much more likely to be scum than you are (or anyone else is). I don't think there are any roles or information that can come out today or tomorrow that will change those odds.

I don't like to reduce the game to statistics/mechanics, and I did not vote along those lines in previous turns (for example I voted for Chaqa because I had scumread them, not because of the Lover argument, which still feels wrong - even though it turned out great), but given that we are close to MYLO our margin for error is essentially non-existent, and so I want to make the best bet I can.

[foodcoats]

So...

Seeing now that the claims are actually totally fucky... like, it would be better if Jamie had not claimed Oracle, because if town now their ability will not fire unless we lynch them, and if scum they will slide into end game... is this in any way an indictment of bozo? I was doing bozo's iso yesterday but it was so squeaky clean, but he was adamant AF on Day 1 about the mass claiming. And I would seriously argue that claims have allowed scum to pick off the PRs at the right moment this whole game, and with a few exceptions we are not really able to verify the claims.

So you think bozo would be a better lynch currently? I think I am following you logic, but I am struggling to find bozo inherently scummy - I find him mostly just bad.

Remembering the last game bozo was scum though, he had a tendency to avoid being on the wagons and played the distance game. However he is not doing that this game. In fact, he has mostly been voting on the top wagon, except for D2 when he was on Chaqa (who lost by only 1 vote).

bozo really hasn't left much of an impression on me with what he has said other than his bad ideas. It feels like there is a lot of fluff or a decent bit of bad questions. I do find it funny that upon reading recently, even he pointed out Jamie is setting up Percy to die (said this on N5) and now is voting me because I am bussing Jamie...

I think bozo is like 95% town. That is why I am trying to pry open the lid to make sure. But my prying has just left me more convinced that bozo is not scum.

[worcej]

The problem with all of this, Worcej, is that I am town and your analysis of other people is now based on the assumption that I am definitely scum.

That's a way to spin it, sure. FOR THE RECORD TO YOU ALL: I independently scumread Jamie.

My last post, to make sure no stupid spin can be made, was to state EP is probably scum only in the event xorxes is scum. That is my read.

Honestly, why is everyone scum-reading worcej at this time? He really doesn’t seem scummy imho

Have you not read the thread? Like the issue with him softing Oracle? Or the back-and-forth with Jamie where he approves Jamie's plan...then after Percy gets NK then scum reads Jamie for proposing it?

Pretty sure I addressed all of the things you mentioned. Whether you like them or not is nothing I can control.

If xorxes is scum, I will never let this community live it down, because in the only other game I played here, I pegged him as scum and he was but he was never lynched and he won it (Mini Mafia IV I think?), and in this game I was calling for xorxes days ago and no one cared. (Although, that was largely because I found the early claim to innocent child suspect, because strategically it is a total waste of the PR ability to claim it so early, whereas other folks have pointed out that waiting to D7 is not all that crazy.... and it has been proven that D7 is indeed a thing that can happen, I have just never played with 20 people before. [But it is still a total waste of the strategic value to town of being inno child.])

But at this point, lynching xorxes is ridiculous and any analysis is essentially irrelevant, because tomorrow is either Lynch Xorxes Day or Mayor Xorxes Day.

And given that you are Arithmeticus, Lord of Math, King of All Equations, why are you now turning around and proposing this? Assuming xorxes is scum, we should be trying to get a different scum today because we are guaranteed scum!xorxes tomorrow. It's patently ridiculous for you to be scumming xorxes now. If anyone is desperate, it appears to be you.

I didn't really provide any analysis and explicitly stated it all depended on what happens on D7 with xorxes's reveal. The whole analysis was based on 'do you think EP is scum?' and thus that's the presentation.

Also: Did I ever even mention to lynch xorxes now on D6? No, I did not, so why are you saying I am ridiculous or being desperate? Desperation requires actual calls for action, which there were none in that read on xorxes. So ~getfuked~ food, you're making it easier for me to call you on your shit.

I am literally writing my ideas and thoughts out there for you all to refer back to once you see my flip and realize 'oh wow, what a fool I was to think worcej was scum and blow our last mislynch on him'. Or, you'll just say I sucked and was super scummy and I should've played better. You know, the typical dismissive/'take no responsibility for my actions' people do on the internet...

But the point is, here you go people. Use my thoughts or lose them.

So can I ask the thought provoking question - what are you guys going to think/do next once I flip town?

If you are lynched and flip town, I will again push to lynch EP.

I think from a probabalistic standpoint, EP is much more likely to be scum than you are (or anyone else is). I don't think there are any roles or information that can come out today or tomorrow that will change those odds.

I don't like to reduce the game to statistics/mechanics, and I did not vote along those lines in previous turns (for example I voted for Chaqa because I had scumread them, not because of the Lover argument, which still feels wrong - even though it turned out great), but given that we are close to MYLO our margin for error is essentially non-existent, and so I want to make the best bet I can.

Why is EP more likely to be scum? Your basing this theory on the reality that scum decided to present a SvS situation. What would motivate the scum team to expose themselves like this when all 5 were still alive at the time? Chaqa wasn't really on the radar to be lynched when the claims came out.

To save you some time, refer to my wall post on xorxes that you blasted me for - I laid out a situation where the desperation would make sense. Know what that was contingent on? Xorxes being scum... Know what you find out tomorrow?

So, can I ask why you lambasted me and called me desperate, when your default logic of stating EP is scum requires very similar logic as my own?

[Jamiet99uk]

Hello Worcej.
I'm not scum.

Why did you think sacrificing Percy was a price worth paying to potentially (falsely) expose me?

[EspressoPatronum]

Does Jamie always repeat that he's town / not scum? I've noticed him doing this several time now + I'm curious if he does it in other games.

It's like he can't show us he's town, so he keeps repeating it in the hopes that we agree with him over time.

[Jamiet99uk]

Does Jamie always repeat that he's town / not scum? I've noticed him doing this several time now + I'm curious if he does it in other games.

It's like he can't show us he's town, so he keeps repeating it in the hopes that we agree with him over time.

Other than by dying, thus wasting my ability, how would you like me to show you?

[EspressoPatronum]

Jamie, were you town in m44?

[Jamiet99uk]

Jamie, were you town in m44?

That was ND's game where me and Vapour were the last to survive, right?

Yes, I was town in that game, and we won

[EspressoPatronum]

Jamie, were you town in m44?

That was ND's game where me and Vapour were the last to survive, right?

Yes, I was town in that game, and we won

Yes, that's the one. Comparing this game to that game, would you say you have been more/less/or evenly scumread?

[Jamiet99uk]

Jamie, were you town in m44?

That was ND's game where me and Vapour were the last to survive, right?

Yes, I was town in that game, and we won

Yes, that's the one. Comparing this game to that game, would you say you have been more/less/or evenly scumread?

I can't really say. I always get people wrongly scumreading me. It happens every game regardless of my actual alignment.

[Jamiet99uk]

I'm not sure I understand the purpose of this line of questioning.

[EspressoPatronum]

That was ND's game where me and Vapour were the last to survive, right?

Yes, I was town in that game, and we won

Yes, that's the one. Comparing this game to that game, would you say you have been more/less/or evenly scumread?

I can't really say. I always get people wrongly scumreading me. It happens every game regardless of my actual alignment.

Kk, noted. Apologies for the random questions... It's going somewhere... I think.

Do you recall what alignment you were in m43?

[EspressoPatronum]

I would check for myself, but I'm not sure how to easily check everyone's role post game

[Jamiet99uk]

Do you recall what alignment you were in m43?

I was entirely impartial in that game.

[Jamiet99uk]

(By which I mean, in that game, I was the GM)

[EspressoPatronum]

Ok this is gonna sound really strange given my Jamie pushes, but I no longer think Jamie is scum.

It's based off of a super scientific meta of him.

##unvote

[EspressoPatronum]

The meta read is incomplete bcz I did it on my phone + it doesn't capture all of his games, but it's the best I've got rn.

[EspressoPatronum]

##vote foodcoats

I'm also pretty sure worcej is town. I wouldn't be surprised if 2 maf were on his wagon and 1 is off.