Mafia 47 - The Sixth Mass Extinction - GAME THREAD [HIDDEN]

[Jamiet99uk]

@PercyWilliams:

Why aren't you voting for one of our tracker claimants? It's pretty clear we need to lynch one of them today.

[bo_sox48]

The clears should split themselves between the two tracker claimants and force the unclears to decide who is getting lynched.

[EspressoPatronum]

The clears should split themselves between the two tracker claimants and force the unclears to decide who is getting lynched.

This doesn't help town. Looking at it from an objective perspective:

1. If it's TvS, scum can manipulate the vote to kill the town, forcing town to use their vote on the scum the next day.
2. If it's SvS, scum split their votes just like the clears do + it looks like a tight race.

I agree that the clears should wait + for the unclears to make a decision, but the clears should absolutely vote for who they think is the scum. It's great if they choose right in TvS and doesn't really matter in SvS.

[EspressoPatronum]

I'm not entirely sure how I escape this SvS narrative, so the best I can do is hope for a change of circumstances to add credence to my claim.

Barring that, I'll keep you guys informed of my reads.

[bozotheclown]

Yeah I would... I don't recall much interaction. I don't think we played 'much' but I can see your point, though, bozo. We certainly played more than I recalled

Those games are available to review on the bot. It seems like you interacted a fair amount.

[bo_sox48]

The clears should split themselves between the two tracker claimants and force the unclears to decide who is getting lynched.

This doesn't help town. Looking at it from an objective perspective:

1. If it's TvS, scum can manipulate the vote to kill the town, forcing town to use their vote on the scum the next day.
2. If it's SvS, scum split their votes just like the clears do + it looks like a tight race.

I agree that the clears should wait + for the unclears to make a decision, but the clears should absolutely vote for who they think is the scum. It's great if they choose right in TvS and doesn't really matter in SvS.

You're missing the point entirely.

[EspressoPatronum]

The clears should split themselves between the two tracker claimants and force the unclears to decide who is getting lynched.

This doesn't help town. Looking at it from an objective perspective:

1. If it's TvS, scum can manipulate the vote to kill the town, forcing town to use their vote on the scum the next day.
2. If it's SvS, scum split their votes just like the clears do + it looks like a tight race.

I agree that the clears should wait + for the unclears to make a decision, but the clears should absolutely vote for who they think is the scum. It's great if they choose right in TvS and doesn't really matter in SvS.

You're missing the point entirely.

Enlighten me.

[bo_sox48]

This doesn't help town. Looking at it from an objective perspective:

1. If it's TvS, scum can manipulate the vote to kill the town, forcing town to use their vote on the scum the next day.
2. If it's SvS, scum split their votes just like the clears do + it looks like a tight race.

I agree that the clears should wait + for the unclears to make a decision, but the clears should absolutely vote for who they think is the scum. It's great if they choose right in TvS and doesn't really matter in SvS.

You're missing the point entirely.

Enlighten me.

You should be able to figure it out.

[bo_sox48]

But if you can't, I really don't feel obliged to help you understand.

[bozotheclown]

Chaqa's "Stranger in a Strange Land" crumb seemed like it could have been real. If he was fake crumbing D1, he might have chosen a teammate to crumb as his target.

[bozotheclown]

#bo_sox: Do you care to address the question of why you did not take the opportunity to clear yourself D1 if you are the bulletproof?

[bo_sox48]

I already did the first time someone asked that question, but you either missed it or ignored it. I was quite confident based on how he had acted for hours without firing a shot and based on the fact that he was crossing previous GM deadlines for daytime actions without having otherwise clarified if there was such a deadline in this game that he did not have a gun to fire and was not the vigilante. That is also why I voted for him and tried to antagonize him into being worried enough to try to nightkill me.

Beyond that, I do not think that clearing me on D1 is the best use of the vigilante's gun over trying to get a good scumread that probably wouldn't get lynched. I gave this some thought early on but came to the conclusion that I'm not that important and wasting the vigilante's shot was a bad strategy. That is especially so when I could have been a nightkill target and cleared myself that way instead, and given that they went for Vecna instead of a clear I obviously could have been if I had crumbed harder than I did or perhaps even not been duped by the real vigilante's poor play. Worth the risk to me, by far.

I imagine there will be healthy disagreement with that assessment given that this poorly drawn setup is going to end up coming down to simple math and every clear matters now, but that was not so apparent on day 1 and as I believe I said in response to your massclaim argument on D1, I'm not playing to participate in a math problem. Clearing myself while assuring an early death and stealing the potentially good impact the vigilante could have made is not the best way to go about this game.

[foodcoats]

I have to do some deeper reading, but wanted to get in a vote, so... in re-reading the actual claim-counterclaim that occurred, the timing is very suspect on dargorygel's part. darg has not been a very active player; I could buy that they've been lurking to avoid being PR-read by scum, but the fact that their claim came second, and so hot on the heels of Espresso... the timing is just too tight. darg pulled over to the side of the road just in time to read the tracker claim that came more than two hours after EON? Why not plan to pull over and announce your claim at start of day? The calculatedness of the counterclaim is too much. I townread (past tense) darg but, off the cuff, I think the odds of town!darg making this counterclaim are so low as to be non-existent.

##VOTE dargorygel

[foodcoats]

Maybe I'm wrong on this.

##VOTE EspressoPatronum

[Percy Williams]

Sorry for being gone for the past 24 hours, I expected at least ten page to have to read up on, and I'm kind of disappointed. I am almost 100% certain that Bozo is scum, the only good mark in his ledger is his support of the Chaqa lynch. Now that I see we're going to be lynching a tracker claimant, I'll
##Vote Espresso Patronum
I believe the counter claim over the original, it felt natural, and I understand wanting to react quickly so that people don't wonder why Dargo waited to counter claim. One theory I have is that the Mafia thought that this was the role not real and not on their list (which is an unproven concept based on something I read in the thread). I don't think it makes any sense to have a counter claim to a real tracker, so at least EP is scum.

[foodcoats]

@Bo_Sox:

I have read your long post now, and your thinking seems pretty compelling to me, I think you present a good case. I could buy Espresso and Darg both being scum.

I don't see any specific question in that post that you're looking for me to answer, though?

There isn't one. I just want to hear what people think because I don't see any end in which town wins if don't lynch both of them.

I'm also of the opinion that lynching both EP and darg is the correct play, because the coordination of the claims was bananas and I don't understand why scum would claim-counterclaim otherwise.

I have read through the argument about the DP and why the smokescreen may have made it difficult to fake claim it, but I think that scum could just have done something like claim DP and claim they didn't actually fire their ability for fear of hitting town, but they didn't want to draw attention during the smokescreening by explaining that.

But why I actually clipped this quote was: why do you think town can't win without lynching both? That's very interesting. Because town most certainly technically can. If whoever we lynch flips scum, we could decide to not lynch the other one. It will never be 100% clear until the end of the game, but it is possible that someone else is scummier and it is a better play to lynch that other person than the leftover of darg/EP, especially based on what we learn or can glean from the thread if the first lynch is confirmed scum. One of EP or darg can most certainly be town. So why do you think "[there is no] end in which town wins if don't lynch both of them"?

[bozotheclown]

I already did the first time someone asked that question, but you either missed it or ignored it. I was quite confident based on how he had acted for hours without firing a shot and based on the fact that he was crossing previous GM deadlines for daytime actions without having otherwise clarified if there was such a deadline in this game that he did not have a gun to fire and was not the vigilante. That is also why I voted for him and tried to antagonize him into being worried enough to try to nightkill me.

Beyond that, I do not think that clearing me on D1 is the best use of the vigilante's gun over trying to get a good scumread that probably wouldn't get lynched. I gave this some thought early on but came to the conclusion that I'm not that important and wasting the vigilante's shot was a bad strategy. That is especially so when I could have been a nightkill target and cleared myself that way instead, and given that they went for Vecna instead of a clear I obviously could have been if I had crumbed harder than I did or perhaps even not been duped by the real vigilante's poor play. Worth the risk to me, by far.

I imagine there will be healthy disagreement with that assessment given that this poorly drawn setup is going to end up coming down to simple math and every clear matters now, but that was not so apparent on day 1 and as I believe I said in response to your massclaim argument on D1, I'm not playing to participate in a math problem. Clearing myself while assuring an early death and stealing the potentially good impact the vigilante could have made is not the best way to go about this game.

After the vig shot, did you consider asking to be lynched to clear yourself? You said you could have crumbed harder, what were you crumbing?

[foodcoats]

Final DP smokescreen results. Return to this if town!DP dies without a reveal.

EspressoPatronum (complete) [damo]
bozo (complete) [chaqa]
Vapor (complete) [foodcoats]
foodcoats (complete) [damo]
flash (complete) [bo_sox]
bo_sox (refused)
Jamie (complete) [Jamie]
worcej (refused)
dargorygel (complete) [Brain]
damo (complete) [Bozo]

For analysis later. Gotta catch a train in a few mins.

Working through my DP lie theory rq, here are my immediate thoughts:

Worcej and bo_sox refused to participate. If they were maf, they would have been the obvious choices to take the DP claim later in the game. Town cred to them.

If worcej and bo_sox refused to participate and then claimed DP, do you really think they would have been believed? I strongly believe you would have led a crusade against them for not playing the smokescreen minigame and then claiming.

[bo_sox48]

After the vig shot, did you consider asking to be lynched to clear yourself? You said you could have crumbed harder, what were you crumbing?

Are you reading what I said? Quit asking dumb questions. I am not trying to hurt town by clearing myself. Between the potential of getting scum and the information we gain, lynches are more important to the town than clearing me. I don't even know why I'm explaining this to you.

My crumb was straight to rdrivera. Did you miss that too?

Is there a rdr wagon? I don't want to drop foodcoats entirely considering he hasn't answered to any of my concerns but I'd be interested in that too at this point if it has more momentum. I'm obviously not the only one who has been offput by his stunt so far.

I will shoot you if the wagon on me gets traction.

That would make you a lock for least valuable player, my friend.

That doesn't sound like me saying bulletproof to me.

[bo_sox48]

Maybe I'm wrong on this.

##VOTE EspressoPatronum

That was quite a turn from your previous post. Why?