Mafia 47 - The Sixth Mass Extinction - GAME THREAD [HIDDEN]

[foodcoats]

Nice! I take back what I said about not lynching Chaqa. Well done.

I'll be back home tonight and start properly playing again.

[Foxcastle]

Note:

I have changed my Oracle target.
I am not going to say who I have targeted.

My Night Action is where I order or change my reveal. The reveal on death is not a night action.

This means that I can be roleblocked when altering my target.

If I die tonight and I reveal Bo_Sox, this means I was roleblocked.
If I die and Bo_Sox is revealed, I was not roleblocked.

I assume you mean:
“If I die tonight and I reveal Bo_Sox, this means I was roleblocked.
If I die and Bo_Sox is not revealed, I was not roleblocked.“

[Jamiet99uk]

Note:

I have changed my Oracle target.
I am not going to say who I have targeted.

My Night Action is where I order or change my reveal. The reveal on death is not a night action.

This means that I can be roleblocked when altering my target.

If I die tonight and I reveal Bo_Sox, this means I was roleblocked.
If I die and Bo_Sox is revealed, I was not roleblocked.

I assume you mean:
“If I die tonight and I reveal Bo_Sox, this means I was roleblocked.
If I die and Bo_Sox is not revealed, I was not roleblocked.“

Sorry, yes. The second statement should be read to mean that if I die, and someone OTHER than Bo_Sox is revealed, then my order got through and thus I was not roleblocked.

[Jamiet99uk]

For clarity:

Note:

I have changed my Oracle target.
I am not going to say who I have targeted.

My Night Action is where I order or change my reveal. The reveal on death is not a night action.

This means that I can be roleblocked when altering my target.

If I die tonight and I reveal Bo_Sox, this means I was roleblocked.
If I die and someone other than Bo_Sox is revealed, I was not roleblocked.

[Jamiet99uk]

By the way (and I'm surprised nobody asked me about this) my sudden hard scumread on Bozo on p.195 was because I was inclined to believe Chaqa's Lover claim and I thought Bozo was trying to push his lynch for scum's advantage. It took a re-read of Worcej's posts for me to realise that lynching town Chaqa in that position would not be a bad idea. So apologies, Bozo.

That doesn't mean I strongly townread Bozo; I'm less sure at this point. Actually let's see...

[Jamiet99uk]

Remaining players:

CLEARS
Tom Bombadil
Foxcastle
ItsHosuke

I KNOW I'M TOWN
Jamiet99uk

TRACKER CLAIMANTS
dargorygel
EspressoPatronum

UNCLEARS
bozotheclown (Claims VT)
bo_sox48 (Claims Bulletproof)
flash2015 (Claims VT)
foodcoats (Claims VT)
Percy Williams (Claims RoleCop)
worcej (Claims VT)
xorxes (Claims Innocent Child)

So if one of Darg / Espresso is scum, there are three scum in the unclear pool.
If both of Darg / Espresso is scum, there are two scum in the unclear pool.

Lynching Darg tomorrow then Espresso the next day hooks at least one scum.

Currently we are at 9 town / 4 scum.
In the morning we will be at 8 town / 4 scum.

The next two lynches are pretty much planned out, so at start of D7 we will be:

6 town / 2 scum (if BOTH Tracker claims are scum)
or
5 town / 3 scum (if only ONE Tracker claim is scum)

[Jamiet99uk]

Is my maths right?

[dargorygel]

Yes, espresso or I are scum... But it is not me glad the chaqa lynch was not a miss, but we need to clip espresso.

[Jamiet99uk]

Yes, espresso or I are scum... But it is not me glad the chaqa lynch was not a miss, but we need to clip espresso.

We are going to lynch you both, unless something very specific happens which may mean we only need to lynch one of you.

[Tom Bombadil]

So if darg flips scum, you think EP should still be the next lynch?

[bozotheclown]

So if darg flips scum, you think EP should still be the next lynch?

Since dargorygel is not the cow, him counterclaiming the real tracker makes even less sense. Maybe that means they are both scum, but I think Espresso should be lynched first.

[bozotheclown]

I'll be back tomorrow with time...
First, I was trying to be funny, and no one noticed. I was posting with one word. I suppose it says something about what folk expect from me.
It was kind of fun. Mostly it was just reactive posts. I DID have a couple of conversations (accusing Percy Williams of hedging, for instance) that were fun with single words. It actually made me think more about articulation than I am used to...

But in the end it is too hard and not really helpful.

A couple of obvious things to comment on:
Mass claim... while I do think that such a claim MIGHT POSSIBLY help us... mostly the concept has too many faulty underlying beliefs. It assumes a randomness of role that I don't think the GM's would do. It assumes that we will have LOTS of scum making false claims, when there is no reason for them to do so. I think bozo also is assuming (he lists this as a 'pro') that multiple fakeclaiming by lynchable scum is common. I think it happens maybe once or twice per game. So we MIGHT draw out a couple of scum... but mostly, we just give scum a map.

But I am not happy with how hard bozo is pushing for this. He seems to have some hope that he has a chance to succeed. I think bozo is smarter than that. So why does he not back off? Or did I miss a retraction?

Also, regarding D1 voting. I always raise an eyebrow at STRONG statements on D1. People who pretend to KNOW an alignment. Obv, only scum knows alignment.

Lynching lurkers? D1 is almost random voting, or at most, mostly gut feelings. Lurkers are no more or less likely to be scum. Lately, it seems, though that at least one or two scummies hide early in the game. So maybe lynching lurkers increases our odds.

I'll probably be able to read off and on... but won't have time to post much till tomorrow morning.

Before I dive into this post, thanks bo for articulating what I’ve been feeling in a way more clear and concise way than I ever could. Appreciate that. I have a lot of trouble following all these back and forth quoted conversations. I miss the old big monolithic “case” posts people used to make.

But on this post - dargo isn’t someone I’ve played with too much (or have forgotten if I gave), but this entire post seems hedgey and anchoring. “Sorry I was posting so poorly, but weren’t my one-word answers so articulate! I’ll be back and better later, I promise!”

Blegh. ##Vote dargo

I thought this D1 post may have been Chaqa bussing dargorygel because of the part about him saying he has not played with dargorygel much. I looked up past game that included both of them and asked Chaqa about it:

Before I dive into this post, thanks bo for articulating what I’ve been feeling in a way more clear and concise way than I ever could. Appreciate that. I have a lot of trouble following all these back and forth quoted conversations. I miss the old big monolithic “case” posts people used to make.

But on this post - dargo isn’t someone I’ve played with too much (or have forgotten if I gave), but this entire post seems hedgey and anchoring. “Sorry I was posting so poorly, but weren’t my one-word answers so articulate! I’ll be back and better later, I promise!”

Blegh. ##Vote dargo

In M24, you and dargorygel both made it through the entire game (7 days). In M28, you both were alive for 5 days. You were both in M33, but dargorygel replaced you D5. In M36 you were both on the scum team, although you were replaced D2.

I don’t even remember playing in half those games, so...

Memory isn’t a strong suit of mine, I blame the smoking.

I asked dargorygel about Chaqa's response, and I do not think dargorygel ever answered my question:

@dargorygel: Do you think it is odd Chaqa does not remember you very well?

@dargorygel: Why did you not answer this question?

[xorxes]

Final DP smokescreen results. Return to this if town!DP dies without a reveal.

EspressoPatronum (complete) [damo]
bozo (complete) [chaqa]
Vapor (complete) [foodcoats]
foodcoats (complete) [damo]
flash (complete) [bo_sox]
bo_sox (refused)
Jamie (complete) [Jamie]
worcej (refused)
dargorygel (complete) [Brain]
damo (complete) [Bozo]

@Espresso: you argue that scum were forced to counterclaim someone because none of them were able to claim DP, and so they were one fakerole short.

I think that's a reasonable argument, and it applies whether the other Tracker claimant is town or scum, in both cases they decided that the counterclaim gambit was preferrable to claiming DP. Claiming Absorber would have been relatively harmless as far as I can tell.

So, the people unable to claim DP were:

bo_sox (refused)
worcej (refused)

It's hard to believe that the real DP wouldn't have used this opportunity to reveal their target.

dargorygel (complete) [Brain]

Brain had already proven that he was not the target, so dargo here was essentially saying "I am not the DP". You have to admit that this would clear dargo if your hypothesis is true and if we believe that dargo understood what was going on. It is not clear that dargo understood the consequences though.

EspressoPatronum (complete) [damo]
foodcoats (complete) [damo]

Damo never said anything that I noticed about having lost his power, so these two were also very unlikely to get away with a DP claim. The fact that they made it would suggest they were not planning to claim DP, or did not realize what their claim entailed.

Jamie (complete) [Jamie]

If Jamie was planning to claim DP, he may have changed his mind after we said his choice was idiotic.

flash (complete) [bo_sox]

flash was unable to claim DP if bo_sox is town (unless there's something bo_sox hasn't told us). But they could not have known this at the time that the counterclaims were made. So it seems that flash was at least potentially a candidate to claim DP. This makes flash look good.

bozo (complete) [chaqa]

Now that we know that Chaqa is scum, we know that if bozo was scum he would have been free to claim DP. This makes bozo look good.

In conclusion:

flash and bozo get townie points based on this explanation for the cc.

bo_sox, worcej, Espresso, foodcoats, dargo and Jamie get either townie points, or idiot-scum points for backing themselves against a wall. Is that what you were saying before?

The fact that you brought this up yourself would suggest you had thought about it and so you would have not made the claim you made, or you may be double-bluffing.

[bozotheclown]

This is from D2, before Chaqa's role claim:
bozo: Percy, Chaqa, dargorygel, flash, worcej
xorxes: Hosuke, Foxcastle, Jamie, flash, dargorygel
brainbomb: xorxes, Jamie, damo, bozo, emc
Jamie: Chaqa, dargorygel, flash, foodcoats, xorxes
damo: flash, bo_sox, dargorygel, worcej, Chaqa
Foxcastle: Percy, emc, damo, Vapor, Chaqa
Vapor: bo_sox, Chaqa, dargorygel, emc, Jamie
flash: Percy, bo_sox, xorxes, emc, worcej

10.5 hours before D2 EOD, I started a wagon on Chaqa as an alternative to ItsHosuke to avoid forcing Foxcastle to claim:

OFFICIAL VOTE COUNT 2.2

ItsHosuke (4): foodcoats, damo666, xorxes, brainbomb
Percy Williams (3): bozotheclown, flash2015, dargorygel
damo666 (2): EspressoPatronum, ItsHosuke
xorxes (2): Jamiet99uk, Foxcastle
e.m.c^42 (1): Vaporwave
foodcoats (1): bo_sox48
Vaporwave (1): worcej
dargorygel (1): Chaqa

ITSHOSUKE is currently on the path of extinction.
The following players still need to cast votes before EOD:
e.m.c^42, Percy Williams, and rdrivera2005

11 hours and 50 minutes remain in D2

I still think Percy's claim is likely fake, but I am not sure, and it would be unfortunate to lynch the role cop, so I am willing to wait on Percy. If we lynch some scum we could even wait until D6 to see if he can verify his claim, but I believe Percy should be lynched if he is still alive at lylo and his claim is unresolved.

Here is why no one should be voting for Hosuke today. If he is town, voting for him just forces the other mason to claim, and there is no reason for the other mason to reveal himself today. If the mafia NKs Hosuke, it verifies there are 2 town masons, so the other mason can claim later and we know he is town, unless the scum choose to cc him, in which case we have a scum in the 2 mason claims. If the mafia NKs the other mason, Hosuke becomes clear. If Hosuke is scum, it will soon be obvious, as there will never be another mason claim, because a second mason claiming scum would result in verifying 2 scum when they can't prove they share a QT. The mason QT test does not have to be performed today, it can be performed any day, as they would not be able to plan ahead for all possible tests.

There are reasons to question xorxes and damo, but neither are currently in my top five scum candidates.

##VOTE Chaqa

Chaqa is my second highest scum candidate, and 5 of 8 have put Chaqa in there top 5, so there should be some interest in lynching him.

Here are the votes the followed:

Just want to say that I arm now fully catched on the thread and that I arm sorry for more being able to contribute more.

I don't like to hunt for the full scumteam, but if I have to guess, Chaqa, Foodcoats, Flash, worcej and Fox are my guesses. Maybe we can replace Fox by bozo and then Chaqa by Vapor. And itshosuke claim is looking weaker and weaker so maybe put him instead of Flash.

I don't believe Xorxes is scum and if he is we are doomed, as he is making a lot of good calls. I also liked a lot Bo's posts, I can follow the logic.

I will ##vote Chaqa now, I think him and Bozo aren't in the same team and maybe sorting one help me sort the other.

if Jamie is town, there's a scum in xorxes/worcej

##VOTE Chaqa

##VOTE CHAQA

With Hosuke leading Chaqa 5-4, Foxcastle claimed mason. Then, 2 more votes for Chaqa:

That is a vote change with absolutely no context. I thought you were scum reading xorxes?

I do scumread Xorxes, however his wagon has no momentum. I'm keen to prevent an ItsHosuke lynch and Chaqa has been absent and useless.

I was still looking around for a viable wagon to join as Percy isn't going to happen. If you go back to Xorxes, I will consider doing it as well. And I also don't like the ItsHosuke wagon too. It is based on "the newbie is a moron" argument which was used to incorrectly scum read me in multiple games and which really p*** me off.

Chaqa is a null to me but if I have to make a choice I would prefer him over ItsHosuke too:

##VOTE Chaqa

@foodcoats
@damo666
@xorxes
@brainbomb
@worcej

You should move your votes. The second Mason has revealed.

Yes.

##VOTE Chaqa

With Chaqa up 6-3, votes started moving off of Chaqa as emc was lynched:

Ok Foxy.

##Vote emc

##VOTE e.m.c^42

Finally, a last minute vote for Chaqa with the emc lynch secured:

##VOTE Chaqa

It is possible Jamie and flash could have been bussing Chaqa, but Jamie helped build Chaqa's wagon, and Jamie and flash were following Foxcastle to emc. I think bo_sox looks the worse here for jumping on Chaqa when emc was sure to be lynched.

Sorry for the long post.

[xorxes]

I'll start the smokescreen reveal.

If I'm Divine Presence, I targeted damo.

There might not be a janitor, or if there is a janitor, the mafia might have decided they wanted to know what Vecna's role was. However, if I was DP, I would have targeted one of my top scum reads N1 and targeted Chaqa.

Would that keep Chaqa alive (if you are DP and he is the Lover and his Lover dies)?

bozo, do you know the answer to this question?

[bozotheclown]

Is there a rdr wagon? I don't want to drop foodcoats entirely considering he hasn't answered to any of my concerns but I'd be interested in that too at this point if it has more momentum. I'm obviously not the only one who has been offput by his stunt so far.

If the vig was on the scum fake claim list, it would be a poor play by scum to claim it D1, since it would eventually get him lynched. I can't see rdrivera doing that as scum.

I don't really see any more credibility in it as town than I do as scum, and I find the way it has transpired as sort of scummy. No hard deadline and retraction, and yet no real pressure to gauge strong and accurate reactions from others. It's like the whole thing is half-assed, almost as if he regretted trying it the moment he did.

Beyond rdrivera, I'm looking for information, and a lot of people seem to be on board with this idea. Someone needs to shake it up.

Suspecting rdrivera was scum fake claiming vig made no sense. When I asked bo_sox about it, he maintained he believed rdrivera could be scum, but gave himself an out saying it was also a reaction test. The part about a lot of people being on board with the idea was not true, I think only damo seemed to agree, which is one of a number of reasons I suspected damo.

With bo_sox claiming bulletproof, the obvious play D1 as bulletproof would be to tell rdrivera to shoot him, clearing them both without risking a town getting shot. That was the only chance for the bulletproof to utilize his role.

[bozotheclown]

There might not be a janitor, or if there is a janitor, the mafia might have decided they wanted to know what Vecna's role was. However, if I was DP, I would have targeted one of my top scum reads N1 and targeted Chaqa.

Would that keep Chaqa alive (if you are DP and he is the Lover and his Lover dies)?

bozo, do you know the answer to this question?

no

[bozotheclown]

Final DP smokescreen results. Return to this if town!DP dies without a reveal.

EspressoPatronum (complete) [damo]
bozo (complete) [chaqa]
Vapor (complete) [foodcoats]
foodcoats (complete) [damo]
flash (complete) [bo_sox]
bo_sox (refused)
Jamie (complete) [Jamie]
worcej (refused)
dargorygel (complete) [Brain]
damo (complete) [Bozo]

@Espresso: you argue that scum were forced to counterclaim someone because none of them were able to claim DP, and so they were one fakerole short.

I think that's a reasonable argument, and it applies whether the other Tracker claimant is town or scum, in both cases they decided that the counterclaim gambit was preferrable to claiming DP. Claiming Absorber would have been relatively harmless as far as I can tell.

So, the people unable to claim DP were:

bo_sox (refused)
worcej (refused)

It's hard to believe that the real DP wouldn't have used this opportunity to reveal their target.

dargorygel (complete) [Brain]

Brain had already proven that he was not the target, so dargo here was essentially saying "I am not the DP". You have to admit that this would clear dargo if your hypothesis is true and if we believe that dargo understood what was going on. It is not clear that dargo understood the consequences though.

EspressoPatronum (complete) [damo]
foodcoats (complete) [damo]

Damo never said anything that I noticed about having lost his power, so these two were also very unlikely to get away with a DP claim. The fact that they made it would suggest they were not planning to claim DP, or did not realize what their claim entailed.

Jamie (complete) [Jamie]

If Jamie was planning to claim DP, he may have changed his mind after we said his choice was idiotic.

flash (complete) [bo_sox]

flash was unable to claim DP if bo_sox is town (unless there's something bo_sox hasn't told us). But they could not have known this at the time that the counterclaims were made. So it seems that flash was at least potentially a candidate to claim DP. This makes flash look good.

bozo (complete) [chaqa]

Now that we know that Chaqa is scum, we know that if bozo was scum he would have been free to claim DP. This makes bozo look good.

In conclusion:

flash and bozo get townie points based on this explanation for the cc.

bo_sox, worcej, Espresso, foodcoats, dargo and Jamie get either townie points, or idiot-scum points for backing themselves against a wall. Is that what you were saying before?

The fact that you brought this up yourself would suggest you had thought about it and so you would have not made the claim you made, or you may be double-bluffing.

So for this theory to be possible, Espresso or foodcoats would have to be locked into claiming DP, so it would support Percy's claim being fake.

[bozotheclown]

I am going to stick with my guess from D4 that the scum team is xorxes, Chaqa, Percy, Espresso, bo_sox. If xorxes proves he is town D7, Espresso and dargorygel may both be scum.

[xorxes]

Would that keep Chaqa alive (if you are DP and he is the Lover and his Lover dies)?

bozo, do you know the answer to this question?

no

Were you not curious, given that you had chosen Chaqa as your DP target and Chaqa claimed a non-VT role?