Announcing the 2018 GvI and FvA Showdowns

[CptMike]

GvI - Set 41: CptMike vs Twinky : 2-1
http://webdiplomacy.net/board.php?gameID=216166
-> Set 89 : CptMike vs Berkut can be created

FvA - Set 9 : yjt0801 vs jwoelmer2 : 2-1
http://webdiplomacy.net/board.php?gameID=216227
-> Set 44 : yjt0801 vs CptMike can be created

[goldfinger0303]

Convoy to Greece, don't cover Venice in A02.
No guarantees in tournament play, but the average Diplomacy player doesn't have the guts to try to punish you.

Looks at game I'm about to lose

Yep, that's just about what I did.

[President Eden]

I have some thoughts about that game. Remind me and I'll post here when it's finished. Not to be harsh but I think you had an amazing position after S03 and punted badly in A03 to lose it. I would explain more but game is ongoing and I don't want to get into the realm of providing active help.

[goldfinger0303]

Eh, hindsight is always 20/20 with 1v1s.

[President Eden]

I'm not talking 50/50 guesses where you just got unlucky, obviously those happen and sometimes you just lose from them but I think there was a plausibly predictable line in A03 that you'd have totally crushed the game if you'd taken it.

[goldfinger0303]

So far these are the stats from the completed games on meme's spreadsheet. It would seem that maybe its gotten better in the more competitive Round 3 of the Winners Bracket, but perhaps that's just too small a sample size.

WB1
G: 12
I: 5 (1 NMR)

WB2
G: 33
I: 14 (1 NMR)
D: 2

LB1
G: 4
I: 0

WB3
G: 3
I: 4

(NMR's being games that Italy won due to NMR)

[President Eden]

Analyzing some of these games is really interesting. Learning a lot about the format.

ghug vs mhsmith had a hell of a game here where ghug not ordering Ven -> Pie or Tri S Ven -> Tyl ended up costing him the game. Really subtle, but not being in Piedmont that early + only getting to build 2 (and having to forgo a third fleet) ended up being decisive in Marseilles/Iberia.

My preliminary impression is that Italy is strongly favored if the pilot runs the Convoy opening and plays very tight, but that Italy is very unforgiving of miscues or "weird" openings. Germany's natural advantage in Tyrolia makes it a comparatively much more forgiving country, and it has some more flexibility with its opening moves, but things are somewhat out of your hands because an Italy that plays tight and runs the Convoy will be favored around Marseilles-Iberia and Austria-Hungary by 1903, which are all the key battleground areas to victory. Germany can't marshal fleets to protect MAO as efficiently as Italy can marshal fleets to breach it, which makes up for Germany's ability to sneak into Turkey via Sevastopol; and then cleaning up rogue units in Turkey is much easier than cleaning up rogue fleets that escape MAO, which is basically impossible.

[President Eden]

late edit because I'm dumb and closed out of the tab.

It's probably not fair to say that A02 order "cost him the game" since that game was very dynamic and had several opportunities for either player to win, but I think mhsmith would have been really hard-pressed to fight back from that position, which is the point I'm making about the Italian position. If Italy is played tightly in the earlygame then it's quite hard for Germany to break through on the important fronts in the middle to late game.
Nor do I mean to take anything away from mhsmith, who made several awesome plays to capitalize on the opportunities he got. I was especially impressed with him forgoing a build with his second fleet, and sending it straight to North Sea from Holland, which ended up being decisive in the fight over MAO.

[mhsmith0]

I’ve run a Swiss split as France in the FvAS 3 times now, and it’s gotten me two victories. The way I do it, very similar to how xorxes did it, depends on Austria not expecting a certain set of moves in the Autumn of 1901.

Swiss split against anti-alpine is a fairly common opening pair, and puts france in relatively better position, to the point where I'd guess it's about a coin flip between experience players from that point onwards (while admittedly not having nearly enough data to verify that beyond gut).

[mhsmith0]

Analyzing some of these games is really interesting. Learning a lot about the format.

ghug vs mhsmith had a hell of a game here where ghug not ordering Ven -> Pie or Tri S Ven -> Tyl ended up costing him the game. Really subtle, but not being in Piedmont that early + only getting to build 2 (and having to forgo a third fleet) ended up being decisive in Marseilles/Iberia.

My preliminary impression is that Italy is strongly favored if the pilot runs the Convoy opening and plays very tight, but that Italy is very unforgiving of miscues or "weird" openings. Germany's natural advantage in Tyrolia makes it a comparatively much more forgiving country, and it has some more flexibility with its opening moves, but things are somewhat out of your hands because an Italy that plays tight and runs the Convoy will be favored around Marseilles-Iberia and Austria-Hungary by 1903, which are all the key battleground areas to victory. Germany can't marshal fleets to protect MAO as efficiently as Italy can marshal fleets to breach it, which makes up for Germany's ability to sneak into Turkey via Sevastopol; and then cleaning up rogue units in Turkey is much easier than cleaning up rogue fleets that escape MAO, which is basically impossible.

My experience in I/G is similar to F/A, in that it's really easy to win as Germany in a lot of games, and Italy is a power you can win as, but it's harder, much like France is harder than Austria.

I'd actually consider Germany's advantages in I/G as being distinct from Austria's in F/A; in F/A, Austria's edge is being closer to the stalemate lines and being able to grow faster, while France as a northern power can generally lock in all of the centers north of versailles line (i.e. Germany + STP) if they play a good game and win a coin flip or two (particularly on opening moves). In I/G, Germany's primary advantage (IMO) is that he can have better access to positions across the stalemate lines (in particular, the juggernaut line since warsaw/moscow are more naturally germany's), and compared to that line, Germany has a VERY realistic chance of pushing through and taking French centers to get past the 17 mark. I tend to think that a clean game favors Germany, and that as Italy you probably need to pull off something surprising or weird or win some coin flips to get the win, and you're likelier to get screwed over by even just subtle errors rather than major/obvious ones.

Like, even in the match you referenced, my recollection was that I had to work a lot harder in the Italy one http://webdiplomacy.net/board.php?gameI ... #gamePanel than in the one where I was Germany, and I think the result happening 2 years later is a good reflection of this.

PS I actually want to take a look back at some of my Italy losses to see if there's a useful pattern; haven't had the time yet, but will probably invest in doing that at some point before my next round pops up.

[mhsmith0]

so apparently you can't edit things

I'd gotten mixed up on the games you'd referenced, so i'd linked the ccr not ghug one. The game you actually linked, fwiw, I think is a good example of one of Germany's inherent advantages; by sealing off the MAO area early, I forced Italy to either take my home centers (hard - Italy picked up Munich on a temporary basis and I threw him right back out the next year) or get not just Warsaw/Moscow but also STP (super hard) to be able to get past 17.

PS I actually want to take a look back at some of my Italy losses to see if there's a useful pattern; haven't had the time yet, but will probably invest in doing that at some point before my next round pops up.

[peterlund]

The FvA game between peterlund - Burningsteel resulted in 2-0
(The google doc needs an update)

FvAS Set 5 Game 1
http://webdiplomacy.net/board.php?gameID=214848

FvAS Set 5 Game 2
http://webdiplomacy.net/board.php?gameID=214850

[swordsman3003]

swordsman3003 vs Le_Roi

Default win to swordman3003 by resignation

http://webdiplomacy.net/board.php?gameID=216266

http://webdiplomacy.net/board.php?gameID=216267

[TrPrado]

It looks like I'll be waiting a bit for sets 13 and 45 of FvAS to finish

[YanksFan47]

YanksFan47 2 - 1 taylornottyler

GvI

Game 1: gameID=216352
Game 2: gameID=216353
Game 3: gameID=217447

[Roadhog]

Roadhog 1-1-1 leon1122

GvIS Set 30
gameID 215096, 215097, 216713

[Roadhog]

Roadhog 2-0 joseph52

FvAS Set 40

gameID= 216294, 216295

[captainmeme]

Apologies for the second huge delay on this...

Hopefully getting in some help in running this which should make everything go much more smoothly. In the meantime, everything should be updated in the next couple of days or so.

[rdrivera2005]

I sent you a PM, my games were cancelled.

[bo_sox48]

FvA Set 54

bo_sox48 moves on, 2-1.

http://webdiplomacy.net/board.php?gameID=217777
http://webdiplomacy.net/board.php?gameID=216455
http://webdiplomacy.net/board.php?gameID=216454