Mafia 47 - The Sixth Mass Extinction - GAME THREAD [HIDDEN]

[EspressoPatronum]

Chaqa, flash, Espresso, bo_sox, Jamiet could you give your comments on these posts please:

@xorxes - I mean, mainly because I'm a lazy player regardless, and I like to read less posts. Nothing irks me more than lots of short posts with a dozen back and forth discussions I have to track.

Don't worry. I am here. Not much to keep track of yet.

EMC's vote against himself is effectively a non-vote meant to defeat a literal interpretation of the criticism, "EMC doesn't vote until EOD." The heart of the criticism is that his non-vote doesn't help town because we can't track his voting record and we don't know what to expect of his vote. Voting for himself doesn't help either of this problems, so his vote against himself is still anti-town.

Lynching lurkers might be a smart plan, but it needs to be done cohesively. A smart mafia player in a setup like this one is probably burying themselves in the muck right now. The worst thing that they can do for themselves is draw undue attention their way, which is why, for example, I think bozo is probably town even though he's the one that keeps proposing stupid things. There should be less attention focused on those who are coming up with ideas and trying to direct traffic, so to speak, and more attention focused on those who are either not posting at all, doing what I did last night and posting just to get something down on paper, or simply following in the tracks of others who are laying bricks for them. Personally, I find the latter is the easiest way to track down lurking scum, because eventually playing by either of the former will stand out even if it doesn't on day 1. When I reread day 1, that's something I plan to look for.

This is a false narrative. I lost track of time and did not realise the night had ended.

I'm going to echo flash's later post saying that "track" is a fairly common word.

I was forthright in my lack of crumbs + I didn't intend for this post to be a crumb.

There's also no way the entire scum team decides to use this bizarre track crumb up to 2 days in advance of a counterclaim.

[xorxes]

Chaqa, flash, Espresso, bo_sox, Jamiet could you give your comments on these posts please:

@xorxes - I mean, mainly because I'm a lazy player regardless, and I like to read less posts. Nothing irks me more than lots of short posts with a dozen back and forth discussions I have to track.

Don't worry. I am here. Not much to keep track of yet.

EMC's vote against himself is effectively a non-vote meant to defeat a literal interpretation of the criticism, "EMC doesn't vote until EOD." The heart of the criticism is that his non-vote doesn't help town because we can't track his voting record and we don't know what to expect of his vote. Voting for himself doesn't help either of this problems, so his vote against himself is still anti-town.

Lynching lurkers might be a smart plan, but it needs to be done cohesively. A smart mafia player in a setup like this one is probably burying themselves in the muck right now. The worst thing that they can do for themselves is draw undue attention their way, which is why, for example, I think bozo is probably town even though he's the one that keeps proposing stupid things. There should be less attention focused on those who are coming up with ideas and trying to direct traffic, so to speak, and more attention focused on those who are either not posting at all, doing what I did last night and posting just to get something down on paper, or simply following in the tracks of others who are laying bricks for them. Personally, I find the latter is the easiest way to track down lurking scum, because eventually playing by either of the former will stand out even if it doesn't on day 1. When I reread day 1, that's something I plan to look for.

This is a false narrative. I lost track of time and did not realise the night had ended.

I'm going to echo flash's later post saying that "track" is a fairly common word.

I was forthright in my lack of crumbs + I didn't intend for this post to be a crumb.

There's also no way the entire scum team decides to use this bizarre track crumb up to 2 days in advance of a counterclaim.

Who said anything about the entire scum team?

In any case, if you're going to crumb, D1 would be the time to do it. Much more believable.

Yours doesn't look unnatural, but considering your role is supposedly the Tracker you might be more aware when using the word. And when others used it.

If you had to pick one of those as the most forced, which one would it be?

[EspressoPatronum]

I'm a little behind and need to read things more closely but I don't see any world right now in which we don't have to kill both darg and Espresso. There's a real good chance they're both scum seemingly aiming to get darg lynched and then have Espresso coast. That's a better chance than any other scenario that has been brought up. I don't really see the point in messing around with anything else other than that at the moment simply because I don't think it's a 50/50 shot.

I'm looking back at Espresso in particular because Espresso's claim was exactly as I expected it to be. Darg, on the other hand, was late and hasn't done a great job. I don't have a whole lot of trouble believing Espresso's claim over his, and I think that's the point.

Agreed. I say we take a shot in the 50/50 and worry about the Chaqa stuff later.

I'm not sure how I get out of this scum v scum narrative without outside help. Do you trust Percy enough to bank on the potential for him to scan me on N5? Town!Percy is probably dead by then, but it's a potential angle.

Espresso says he tracked xorxes N2, and xorxes didn't visit anyone. Okay, cool. Espresso scumread xorxes on D2, even suggesting that on D3 there should be a wagon against xorxes. Then he tracked him, and saw nothing.


What Espresso should know is that seeing nothing is not clearing any implication that xorxes is scum. There are a lot of mafia roles that don't necessarily visit if there is a killer, and even if there isn't a killer only so many people are making the visits each night...

I already addressed this. We KNOW a hooker visited Vapor on N2, so xorxes for sure isn't the hooker. We also KNOW mafia killed someone that night, so xorxes either isn't the ant or wasn't the mafia to carry out the attack. This makes him far less likely to be scum than anyone else picked at random, so that's more than enough for me to townread him imo.

So why does Espresso go from this:

@bozo for your list:

Scum team:
1. Damo
2. Emc
3. Percy
4. Xorxes
5.Hosuke*

*If Hosuke gets mason cleared, put worcej in there instead.

I'd like to see a xorxes wagon tomorrow

...to this?

All but 1 of Jamie's 5 votes in D2 were among the first 2 of a wagon. Huuuuge powerthief red flag.

All but 1 of Jamie's 5 votes in D2 were among the first 2 of a wagon. Huuuuge powerthief red flag.

Does scum!Jamie bus xorxes to steal his power? I don't think so.

If Jamie is scum, xorxes is town.

@all remaining town clears.

I would like to start a Jamiet wagon. Can two of you please vote for him so we can start it?

The reason this is suspect is not because his read changed. That would be expected, at least to a degree, when the odds are mathematically lowered that someone is scum based on the results of a scan. What I find suspicious is that his read changed during night 2, not after he got the results of his scan. Jamie became a scumread, and as a result, xorxes became a townread. So why track xorxes if he's a townread based on POE off your new scumread? He had already claimed innocent child during day 2.

Scaling up my Jamie scumread does not mean I started to townread xorxes. The posts you quoted don't show a xorxes townread either. Fake news.

What I see is this: the scumteam had the tracker as an available claim and knew that from the start. They have been plotting out the execution of this plan since then, knowing that the proper time to claim tracker would be after N3. They have been going PR hunting instead of killing townclears because they thiink they're going to have a "townclear" of their own. Mathematically, if they leave enough townclears alive until late in the game that their own "townclear" can justifiably not die, they'll win, even if a couple of them get caught.

In my view, this is a slight error in the execution of this plan by Espresso, and it stands out. There was no stated reason for him to be tracking xorxes N2. He townread him.

See above. Reread the posts you quoted and show me where I start townreading xorxes before D3.

Another question this made me consider was why the Vaporwave wagon went down the way it did. It was at least somewhat apparent that he either wasn't the tracker and coincidentally crumbed it, was the tracker but wasn't claiming it yet and just crumbed too openly, or was scum setting himself up to claim tracker. Why did this not catch the attention of either darg or Espresso? Nothing in their iso suggests they ever had a moment where they thought he might be setting up to counterclaim them. This is the kind of thing that a town PR should be looking for, but neither of them ever did.

This is a sequence that stands out to me regarding Espresso's treatment of Vapor, beginning with him voting Vapor on D3:

Espresso is not just town, he's mighty town.

damo remains town, same for xorxes however I'm prepared to be slapped with a surprise of scum!xorx performing one of his best scum games of all time

foodcoats is a strong new entry in my towncore, he's trying to understand everything and doesn't feign interest in topics

Ahh, here comes the scum spew. I was a little worried about your pocketing of me, but this is next level. I guess you've been brewing up this pot of WIFOM since D1, eh?

##vote Vaporwave

5 hours prior to this post, we saw this from Espresso:

The worcej wagon looks fine to me. I don't think Vapor is scum, but my read of him is likely influenced by his hard townread of me.

VOTE## worcej

Assuming I have the correct interpretation of the power thief role, I suggest bo_sox unvote and then vote for worcej again. That would leave Fox and Brain as the first two on the wagon.

I don't know what to make of such a dramatic flip flop. Initially, Espresso townreads Vapor because Vapor townreads him. Then, five hours later and after the wagon has built up alongside worcej, he votes for Vapor because Vapor townreads him. What's the magic line that Vapor crossed? I don't see how the post Espresso quoted when he voted for Vapor could have been so dramatically interpreted that he flipped from a townread to a scumread worth wagoning on.

I was pretty inactive that day, as I'm sure you'll be able to tell from my posts. If I recall correctly, I was on my lunch break when I voted for Vapor. All I knew was that people were saying Vapor was claiming tracker (which I knew to be a lie) and he was going down for it. I then saw that he left a heavy townread on me. I assumed this was scum spew (ie. setting up a bunch of garbage so town can't properly read you) and treated that as the nail in the coffin. Both of those factors contributed to my dramatic shift.

My working theory is that Espresso simply forgot that he's supposed to be setting himself up for a tracker claim and realized that he should be at the very least hinting that Vapor's crumbs were fake. But that's just a theory.

After Vapor flipped, Espresso said the following:

- I think scum pushed the Tracker!Vapor agenda. bozo mentioned that it looks like scum set Vapor up with the RB with the idea of him getting lynched... I agree with his. I'm assuming scum must have the tracker claim + knew Vapor either (a) didn't really claim Tracker + pushed the story that he did, or (b) wanted to kill Vapor to "regain" the tracker claim in their possible. With that in mind, I'm highly sus of anyone who was pushing the message that Vapor was tracker. I think that's damo, flash, and maybe a few others.
- side note. I was planning on waiting until night to push the rest of the tracker smokescreen. I don't think there's a need for it any more considering the above information.

See my post later in which I say this was my way of avoiding a roleblock. I was concerned the scumteam would pick me out because I was the only one who supported the tracker smokescreen.

Obviously, he knew Vapor was town regardless of whether or not he's the tracker after his flip. Nonetheless, this is far more dismissive of Vapor's breadcrumbs than I would expect the actual tracker to be. It is, on the other hand, exactly what I would expect someone to say when they actually set this up to begin with. Clearly, duh, this was a scum push from the beginning.

If everything you assumed in your post is true, this is indeed an obvious conclusion. Please read over my responses and let me know what you think.

On the other side of the coin, this is darg's first vote of day 3, after Vapor claimed RB:

When we combine/intersect vapor's RB, and his suggestion of flash...

Maybe those things point to our first scum.

##vote flash2015

This is the post he is referencing:

that's why I was targeted, it was a threat to flash

why would they care if I were to follow a townie (btw I'm not claiming to be anything this is hypothesis)

it seems that they didn't want me to visit flash, is he the one that holds the kill?

This is confusing. If darg is the tracker, wouldn't the tracker crumbs plus the RB claim lead him down a path toward suspecting Vapor? Why is he trusting Vapor instead? That certainly does not seem befitting of someone who has implied he may be your counterclaim.

Exactly. Good point. It's also weird that darg didn't give any indication of his supposed N2 track result!

At the very least darg has some redeeming crumbs that give me some pause. I notice this one in particular on day 2, indicating his plan to scan Percy:

Sigh...
I was feeling better about Percy. But then he went all unsure about his claim.
I am interested in Jamie. He seems very terse and mad, like scumjamie. If there is something else about him, please summarize. I expect to be in full Monday. Your patience is appreciated.

I am going to VOTE ## Percy Williams but will try to scan again if I get the chance.

Still, this can all be faked. I just don't think this has been all that well executed considering how clever their plan actually was, and I don't think they accounted for the extra dimension of someone outside their team crumbing tracker. Neither showed the appropriate amount of suspicion toward Vapor at all, and yet both ended up voting for him.

[/quote]
When did darg say this btw? If it was any time after N2, that should be a huge red flag to you that his supposed tracker target isn't true.

[EspressoPatronum]

I believe both dargo and Espresso are scum.

The reason is that I think the Tracker was a Mafia fake role.

Why do the counterclaim charade? Maybe in the hopes that whichever one is not lynched gets enough towncred to take the win. Things like this have been done before.

I think Tracker is a fake role because of what happened with Vapor. Scum roleblocking him while leaving damo alive and not roleblocked means they were not afraid of the Tracker. Damo was a strong cadidate to being the Tracker, certainly much stronger than Vapor, so the only way Mafia would be sure he wasn't is because they knew he couldn't be.

Also, dargo's crumb "investigative" reads like an intentional crumb, but the timing (N2) is ridiculous. All his other crumbs look like things he thought up later that could be construed as crumbs rather than things that he said with the intention of being crumbs.

So I think you're on board that darg is obv!scum. fmpv, I know the hooker held the RB. You don't need to believe me, but it's worth writing down in case town can use it if I die. Town was afraid of a tracker result, so they likely devised this counterclaim scenario to lead a mislynch. I don't think scum anticipated town thinking darg and the tracker claimant would get read as scum.

Now I just need to convince you somehow that I'm town.

Do you trust Percy? Maybe he can scan me if he's alive.

Xorxes: assume for a moment you are in my shoes as TvS. What do you do to get town to believe you?

[EspressoPatronum]

Regarding the damo softs:

I wasn't closely following his softs +/ the implications of his claim. Even if I did, I don't think I would have had a problem lynching him. Doctor is very difficult to verify, so it would have been a guessing game.

I think you guys are giving too much weight to hinted roles. The circumstances of a reveal matter, and so do mechanical clears. None of the others really matter if we can't vet them. I wouldn't have given up my damo scumread unless I had reason to townread him. Few of his actions this game gave me such reason.

Scum probably targeted damo because they worked out his mammal claims. Scum knows they don't have tracker or doc, they see damo claiming mammal, so they take the shot knowing they hit an important role.

I bet they planned for an alternate scenario of counterclaiming the doc if damo was the tracker.

[EspressoPatronum]

Sorry I can't do much work this weekend but I am keeping up with the thread.

I don't agree with lynching Chaqa, that's a weird backwards bird in hand/two in the bush thing.

I still think darg and EP are most likely both scum. I can't re iso them but based on my previous readings I scumread EP much more heavily so I'd rather start with them.

##VOTE EspressoPatronum

If you somehow find the time to glance through my iso with the town tracker claim in mind, I think it might change your read of me vs darg. If you compare it to darg's with both tracker claims in mind, I'm almost certain you'll favour my claim.

If you for sure don't have time, let me know asap + I can try to do a synthesized version for you.

[xorxes]

So I think you're on board that darg is obv!scum. fmpv, I know the hooker held the RB. You don't need to believe me, but it's worth writing down in case town can use it if I die. Town was afraid of a tracker result, so they likely devised this counterclaim scenario to lead a mislynch. I don't think scum anticipated town thinking darg and the tracker claimant would get read as scum.

They were not too afraid of the tracker on N2. That roleblock was real, and it wasn't used on damo. That's the main point agains you. Other than that you sound towny, but I've been convinced for too long that the Tracker was one of the Mafia fakeroles.

And yes, I'm much more sure about dargo than about you. I was scumreading him before this claim business.

Now I just need to convince you somehow that I'm town.

Do you trust Percy? Maybe he can scan me if he's alive.

If he is town he will be killed or roleblocked. No chance he gets a scan unless scum mess it up.

Xorxes: assume for a moment you are in my shoes as TvS. What do you do to get town to believe you?

Try to find the rest of the scum I suppose. If you are town, you are in the townie with the most information at this point.

[EspressoPatronum]

Xorxes: assume for a moment you are in my shoes as TvS. What do you do to get town to believe you?

I'd like to extend this out to everyone. What do I do?

I feel fairly confident in the EP v darg fight, but I'm not sure about what to do in the aftermath.

[EspressoPatronum]

Try to find the rest of the scum I suppose. If you are town, you are in the townie with the most information at this point.

Noted. I'll do a deep dive of darg tonight and see if I can drudge up anything useful.

[EspressoPatronum]

Chaqa, flash, Espresso, bo_sox, Jamiet could you give your comments on these posts please:

[Context edit - track posts]

I'm going to echo flash's later post saying that "track" is a fairly common word.

I was forthright in my lack of crumbs + I didn't intend for this post to be a crumb.

There's also no way the entire scum team decides to use this bizarre track crumb up to 2 days in advance of a counterclaim.

Who said anything about the entire scum team?

In any case, if you're going to crumb, D1 would be the time to do it. Much more believable.

Yours doesn't look unnatural, but considering your role is supposedly the Tracker you might be more aware when using the word. And when others used it.

If you had to pick one of those as the most forced, which one would it be?

I thought you were insinuating that everyone who said "track" was tied to this counterclaim scenario.

Yeah, agreed on the crumbs. First few posts, even. As stated before, I didn't think crumbing would be all that useful in this setup. I see now that it may have helped me disprove the SvS theory, but that's in the past now.

You're completely right under normal circumstances, but you also have to consider the size of this game (and by extension, the volume of posts). I was mostly skimming to keep up on the first few days, let alone dissecting posts for which words they used. Tbf, that's a bit of a disservice to town, but there wasn't anything I could do about that aside from not play (which is unthinkable!).

I take your point about my use of the word "track." I've got nothing there except a broad excuse that most of my play is done on mobile. Various typos and/or grammatical slips should show that I haven't been super careful about my posts. Compare that to times like this, however, in which I'm using my computer, and I'd say the difference is night and day.

Tbh, none of them feel forced. If any of them intended to do it, they probably would have been the counterclaimers over darg.

[xorxes]

I wasn't closely following his softs +/ the implications of his claim. Even if I did, I don't think I would have had a problem lynching him. Doctor is very difficult to verify, so it would have been a guessing game.

Not true, the Mafia had to either kill him (which is what happened: verified!), or keep roleblocking him (which lets the Cop do his thing) or risk him saving someone. Killing him early was a mistake even if you were not sure about the claim. Some confirmed town were trying to lynch him as well, so that's not completely condemning, but if your claim is true you were in a position to know what his exact claim was. And the fact you weren't following closely is not good either.

I think you guys are giving too much weight to hinted roles. The circumstances of a reveal matter, and so do mechanical clears. None of the others really matter if we can't vet them. I wouldn't have given up my damo scumread unless I had reason to townread him. Few of his actions this game gave me such reason.

See, to me he was obvtown. But I accept that not everyone sees the same signs of obvtowniness.

Scum probably targeted damo because they worked out his mammal claims. Scum knows they don't have tracker or doc, they see damo claiming mammal, so they take the shot knowing they hit an important role.

But why wait to N3 to do it, allowing him to track N2 and report if he was the Tracker? That's the problematic part for you.

I bet they planned for an alternate scenario of counterclaiming the doc if damo was the tracker.

If you think that's likely, look for some evidence.

[xorxes]

Tbh, none of them feel forced. If any of them intended to do it, they probably would have been the counterclaimers over darg.

Unless, of course, they wanted darg's claim to be a failure.

[xorxes]

##VOTE bozo so that I'm not modkilled

[xorxes]

My current bet is dargo/Espresso/bozo/Jamiet and I'm struggling with the last one between flash and bo_sox.

[Chaqa]

I wish Tom and Fox would chime in more.

[ItsHosuke]

I wish Tom and Fox would chime in more.

same

[bo_sox48]

Going to drop a ##VOTE bo in case I don’t make it home in time tomorrow.

I’ll get to your reply, Espresso, when I can. I’d like to read darg the same way instead of making an argument out of this, though, so if I have time later that will take it.

[ItsHosuke]

If I'm not getting this wrong...

>One, or even two of Espresso/dargorygel is scum. If both are scum, one of them is likely to have the cow role, and we should have the players less likely to be chosen by the cow D0 to vote for them
>Chaqa is the best mislynch option, and should probs be voted on only if we're really not confident
>The bozo wagon is growing, people seem to think he's scummy
>Scum is doing a good job NKing specific roles, and we're losing badly.

Oh well

[Tom Bombadil]

I wish Tom and Fox would chime in more.

What more would you like me to say? I've said what I think. Would you rather I direct town on what to do so that there is no more discussion?

[EspressoPatronum]

I wish Tom and Fox would chime in more.

What more would you like me to say? I've said what I think. Would you rather I direct town on what to do so that there is no more discussion?

Having conf!town lead discussion helps remove the possibility of mafia "town leaders" emerging. It stifles discussion a bit, but it probably helps safeguard against anti-town propaganda.

All that to say more direction would be good. We need it.