Mafia 47 - The Sixth Mass Extinction - GAME THREAD [HIDDEN]

[flash2015]

In reading through the past few pages, I don't understand how we think it could be MYLO today even in the worst possible circumstances. We are 9-5 currently.
If we lynch a townie today it is MYLO tomorrow.

If we lynch a mafia that is the cow, we will be down to 7-4 tomorrow. The only thing the cow will do is it could potentially change a MYLO day into a LYLO day (if we hit the cow today, and mislynch tomorrow it means LYLO instead of MYLO day 6). That's it. I don't think we should be obsessing about it so much.

We now just need to make a choice between EP/darg and stick with it. If it was me I would probably choose darg...but I will leave it up to the townclears to make the final decision.

If we mislynch today and Chaqa is town, it will be 6-5 D5. There is a 5/7 chance the mafia have the double vote power, which means they could force a no lynch D6 for the win. So, there is a 5/7 chance it is mylo today, if Chaqa is town. If we mislynch Chaqa today, it will be 7-5 tomorrow and lylo. The benefit of lynching Chaqa is that we can't be sure he is really town. If Chaqa is scum, it is not mylo since it would be 7-5 D5 is we mislynch someone else, but of course it is still better to lynch Chaqa today if he is scum.

Oh, OK. I got confused. I understand now.

[worcej]

We have nothing to lose by lynching Chaqa to verify his claim.

We lose a town, at MyLo

It is only mylo if we lynch anyone else because that assumes we lose Chaqa with Tom, so we can lynch Chaqa for free.

Bozo's logic is making sense... If the double-kill potential is removed, we are not in as much of a bad situation.

[Chaqa]

Well gee Bozo, it doesn’t seem like anyone picked up on it, so maybe THATS EXACTLY WHAT I DID. How are you this dense?

The only reason I’m outed as Loved is because people pushed me on Day 2 and I had to.

You have no idea how badly I want to vote for you because I’m tired of you getting away with all your scum crap.

You did not have to claim when you did, which is the reason I still suspect your claim may be fake.

If you were leaving an undetectable crumb to later verify a claim, I would expect you to crumb your role or animal, not your target. I do not see any benefit to town to ever make your target public, since the only way to verify your target gets you killed.

I felt like I had to claim when I did. You don't have the right to say how I perceive things.

[worcej]

Well gee Bozo, it doesn’t seem like anyone picked up on it, so maybe THATS EXACTLY WHAT I DID. How are you this dense?

The only reason I’m outed as Loved is because people pushed me on Day 2 and I had to.

You have no idea how badly I want to vote for you because I’m tired of you getting away with all your scum crap.

Not that I am scumming you, but this reasoning makes little sense to me.

People pushed you, but why even claim that role when you're being pushed? You dying by yourself is better than you dying with another townie down the road.

I would only claim that role if my target was being lynched, not if I was near being lynched.

[worcej]

Well gee Bozo, it doesn’t seem like anyone picked up on it, so maybe THATS EXACTLY WHAT I DID. How are you this dense?

The only reason I’m outed as Loved is because people pushed me on Day 2 and I had to.

You have no idea how badly I want to vote for you because I’m tired of you getting away with all your scum crap.

You did not have to claim when you did, which is the reason I still suspect your claim may be fake.

If you were leaving an undetectable crumb to later verify a claim, I would expect you to crumb your role or animal, not your target. I do not see any benefit to town to ever make your target public, since the only way to verify your target gets you killed.

Pretty much covers the thing I stated too...

[Chaqa]

I don't know what to tell you. With how the roles in this game are, what was I supposed to do? Options:
1. Not claim at all. Probably get lynched.
2. Claim VT. People don't mind lynching VT, so get lynched.
3. Claim a random role and potentially draw a CC. Bad for town.
4. Claim my real role and obfuscate who my Lover target is.

#4 is what I did. My lover target has yet to die, so i guess it has worked so far.

And everyone keeps saying I confirmed it's Tom, but as far as I know I haven't done so.

[worcej]

For once, I hope some of you choose to listen to my words right now... I am specifically talk a lot to Fox right now.

I am of the opinion we need to buy ourselves another day.

We're @ 9-5 atm. We all know that. We also know a CC has been made on the tracker role. You would think, 'hey, it's clearly between darg or EP'.

We should assume, at this point for sure because it would be the most retarded town move ever made to CC just to CC, that one between EP or darg is scum and I believe the fake claim (from one of them) is that the scum are going for the win now. There are two methods to get 3 deaths today - one is the cow (not scum's ideal choice) and the other is via the lover - who has also publicly stated their target. The cow's not guaranteed and again doesn't end us the game.

It really doesn't matter too much on the ins and outs between the two, because it's pretty simple - we need to get rid of Chaqa one way or the other.

If Chaqa is telling us the truth and is town, we're fucked if we get EP vs darg wrong. We go to 6-5 and do lose with the double-vote is in play.

If we pass on EP vs Darg, then we go to 7-5 and are indeed still at effective LyLo and still have a 50/50 on EPvsDarg, but confirming Chaqa provides a little better of information than doing this now.

This is the smart play. For the love of god, please my other townies - pay attention to this...
##vote Chaqa

[worcej]

I don't know what to tell you. With how the roles in this game are, what was I supposed to do? Options:
1. Not claim at all. Probably get lynched.
2. Claim VT. People don't mind lynching VT, so get lynched.
3. Claim a random role and potentially draw a CC. Bad for town.
4. Claim my real role and obfuscate who my Lover target is.

#4 is what I did. My lover target has yet to die, so i guess it has worked so far.

And everyone keeps saying I confirmed it's Tom, but as far as I know I haven't done so.

Being a Monday Morning Quarterback, you should've done #1 if you're town.

Knowing your role and target gives the scum an awesome 2 for 1 and a way to suddenly win if people don't pay attention.

[EspressoPatronum]

Has anyone noted the possibility of Chaqa's lover being scum?

We have 14 players remaining. Assuming his lover isn't Fox, Hosuke, or Tom, and excluding Chaqa from the pool, that's a 50/50 chance his lover is mafia.

Someone was mentioning a 5/7 chance that we're in mylo if we don't lynch Chaqa today... does this number reflect the chance of a mafia lover?

[EspressoPatronum]

I'm seeing worcej-bozo connections. If one flips scum, I could see the other flipping scum.

[worcej]

Has anyone noted the possibility of Chaqa's lover being scum?

We have 14 players remaining. Assuming his lover isn't Fox, Hosuke, or Tom, and excluding Chaqa from the pool, that's a 50/50 chance his lover is mafia.

Someone was mentioning a 5/7 chance that we're in mylo if we don't lynch Chaqa today... does this number reflect the chance of a mafia lover?

He claimed he loved BB, who is Tom, who is a confirmed town.

Are you not paying attention?

[dargorygel]

Scum is laughing. At me because i am the only person who knows something is going on, and can't figure it out. And at the rest of you because you can't see something is going on.

But I repeat myself.

@coffeepatronus You questioned my lack of notifying town when Percy stayed home. I chose not to. My tracker role is short, and not necessarily of great value. If scum read my hints, I'd die before I got my second track off. I DID stop voting Percy, however.

I keep thinking that the fake tracker claim was either a) to draw out which town roles are being used. or b) something to do with the role thief. b is problematic because no one has announced their role was stolen. And the dead folk don't have roles that would be useful here.

[dargorygel]

Why did Jamie +1 post 3915?

[worcej]

Also, sorry, but if you're town - why are you gambling on the best case scenario and forgoing the worst case?

I am literally abdicating to resolve the darg vs EP one day later to remove the chance for scum to just 'surprise we win!' with this EOD vote if we get it wrong.

If I was scum, I would be all-in with trying to get this 50/50 shot of winning now (again assuming that the double vote is in play, which it probably is due to the fake claim being issued now)

[worcej]

Why did Jamie +1 post 3915?

Probably an accident. I saw it too, he said he was on his mobile and at a bar.

[EspressoPatronum]

Has anyone noted the possibility of Chaqa's lover being scum?

We have 14 players remaining. Assuming his lover isn't Fox, Hosuke, or Tom, and excluding Chaqa from the pool, that's a 50/50 chance his lover is mafia.

Someone was mentioning a 5/7 chance that we're in mylo if we don't lynch Chaqa today... does this number reflect the chance of a mafia lover?

He claimed he loved BB, who is Tom, who is a confirmed town.

Are you not paying attention?

He didn't explicitly claim that.

He said, "And everyone keeps saying I confirmed it's Tom, but as far as I know I haven't done so."

[worcej]

Has anyone noted the possibility of Chaqa's lover being scum?

We have 14 players remaining. Assuming his lover isn't Fox, Hosuke, or Tom, and excluding Chaqa from the pool, that's a 50/50 chance his lover is mafia.

Someone was mentioning a 5/7 chance that we're in mylo if we don't lynch Chaqa today... does this number reflect the chance of a mafia lover?

He claimed he loved BB, who is Tom, who is a confirmed town.

Are you not paying attention?

He didn't explicitly claim that.

He said, "And everyone keeps saying I confirmed it's Tom, but as far as I know I haven't done so."

Okay, but if you're town right now, think about this: Why did darg counter you? What possible reason would a scum counter-claim you?

Think about the worst case scenario - not every possible scenario. Focus on the worst. It leads you to the scum team winning at this vote.

[EspressoPatronum]

...
@coffeepatronus You questioned my lack of notifying town when Percy stayed home. I chose not to. My tracker role is short, and not necessarily of great value. If scum read my hints, I'd die before I got my second track off. I DID stop voting Percy, however.

I keep thinking that the fake tracker claim was either a) to draw out which town roles are being used. or b) something to do with the role thief. b is problematic because no one has announced their role was stolen. And the dead folk don't have roles that would be useful here.

This is a fake townslip. We've talked extensively about the power thief and how it functions. He's pretending not to know here. By the wording of the initial post Nephthys' clarification, we have no reason to believe the PT target is notified.

[worcej]

EP - stfu for a second and stay on track with me.

[EspressoPatronum]

He claimed he loved BB, who is Tom, who is a confirmed town.

Are you not paying attention?

He didn't explicitly claim that.

He said, "And everyone keeps saying I confirmed it's Tom, but as far as I know I haven't done so."

Okay, but if you're town right now, think about this: Why did darg counter you? What possible reason would a scum counter-claim you?

Think about the worst case scenario - not every possible scenario. Focus on the worst. It leads you to the scum team winning at this vote.

My best guess is they have a VT in their town pool. Instead of claiming VT, they probably assigned darg with the task of counterclaiming.

You're right that we need to prepare for the worst-case scenario, but that shouldn't stop us from considering other scenarios. My goal in raising the mafia lover possibility was to keep everyone as informed as possible.