Mafia 47 - The Sixth Mass Extinction - GAME THREAD [HIDDEN]

[xorxes]

I had forgotten about the double vote. If Chaqa is the Lover then we're at LYLO.

[xorxes]

Unless there's no human.

[EspressoPatronum]

I'm the tracker. All that "maf has tracker stuff" last night was a (successful) attempt to avoid getting roleblocked.

Xorxes did not visit anyone on N2. I chose xorxes because he was one of my top scumreads. I scaled back my read knowing that he stayed at home.
1. Assuming ant & knowing that hooker visited Vapor, xorxes is 40% less likely to be maf.
2. Assuming no ant & knowing that hooker visited Vapor, xorxes is 20% less likely to be maf.

Bozotheclown did not visit anyone N3. I chose bozo because he was the most popular scumread. If he visited anyone, it would have been easy to lead a lunch against him.
1. Assuming ant & assuming hooker visited someone, bozo is 40% less likely to be maf.
2. Assuming no ant & assuming hooker visited someone, bozo is 20% less likely to be maf.
3. Assuming no ant & assuming hooker did not visit someone (i.e. scum claims roleblocked), bozo is 0% less likely to be maf.

Notes:
While I still think the DP smokescreen was worth it, I mostly used it as an excuse to do a tracker smokescreen the following night without attracting the attention of the mafia.

I voted Vapor because of the tracker ambiguity & his hard town stance on me.

There are 2 things I noticed about this post. First, Espresso makes a mistake about how the tracker role works, since the tracker would be able to track the mafia performing the NK whether it was the ant or not. Second, Espresso displays a specific knowledge about the mafia by pointing out that there may not be ant.

Jamie pushed me for assuming Janitor was in play. I wanted to make sure I didn't assume ant was in play.

And yeah, I messed up the tracking math for xorxes if there's no ant.

[EspressoPatronum]

...
Let's send in someone with a written up organized formatted reasonable (although not crumbed... because we didn't think of that back then.) SOmeone not scumread much. Someone who can come in and look GOOD.
...

Xorxes used this same line of reasoning as scum last game to help discredit me. Xorxes and some others said my huge wall post was too calculated and organized to be town.

You're doing the same thing here.

[EspressoPatronum]

Whether they used the roleblock or not does tell us something, so yes, we need to know if they chose to roleblock again.

I was mostly asking wrt to my claim. I have to go in a bit though + figured there's a very slim chance nobody claims roleblocked, so I just went for it Town not claiming is anti-town. Scum not claiming it is weird.

This is an interesting comment about the scum claiming the RB, Espresso seems to be saying if the scum did not use the RB they would be sure to claim it. I think that is an odd position to take considering what happened to Vapor. He could have been setting up dargorygel.

Explain a situation to me in which a RB claim doesn't happen. I outlined earlier why I think either town or scum will always claim RB in this situation.

[EspressoPatronum]

This might be the most mechanically and mindgaming interesting thing I’ve seen. I’m turning in for the night, but we need to spend some serious time thinking this. Big questions:

1. Did Dargo counterclaim have to do with the Tracker specifically? Why CC Espresso over someone like Jamiet or worcej who have more scum reads?

The Tracker was the only obvious role that was going to be claimed today, so if they planned to counterclaim today it would have to be the Tracker.

2. Is Dargo actually the tracker? The roleblock makes me wonder, because there would be no reason to hold the roleblock or to use it on the NK target on night 3, as far as I can tell. So mafia would be incentivized to actually roleblock someone they think is tracker.

True, unless they know there is no Tracker. This works against Espresso.

3. If one of them is the cow, who is the target of the disease? A thought occurs to me - what if it’s Tom? In that situation, him lynching either of them is a DISASTER for town because it means we lose 2 townies for 1 mafia.

Clears should not be in the lynch wagon, they should say how many and which unclears vote for whoever we decide, and the rest should be self-voting. Only two is probably too little, we don't want to make it too easy for them to just tie it.

4. Could mafia be planning to power steal their own guy somehow if the power thief is in play? Similarly, what if the double vote is in play and that could manipulate things?

That's a very good point. Not sure if cow power can be stolen since it's used N0.

I think we need the full phase time to figure out the least dangerous solution. So no end voting.

Indeed. That's one point against dargo.

The PT role takes the power tree in the event of a mislynch. I don't think they can steal scum powers.

As you said, PT also steals the the power tree, meaning they do not regain used abilities.

[xorxes]

I want to know who claims DP, Bulletproof and Absorber, since they are all uncomfortable roles for Mafia to claim.

[xorxes]

...
Let's send in someone with a written up organized formatted reasonable (although not crumbed... because we didn't think of that back then.) SOmeone not scumread much. Someone who can come in and look GOOD.
...

Xorxes used this same line of reasoning as scum last game to help discredit me. Xorxes and some others said my huge wall post was too calculated and organized to be town.

You're doing the same thing here.

Truish, but not exactly. I said that I believed both you and et were town, but that since you were more calculated and organized, that was easier to fake and so I voted, reluctantly, for you over et because the Judge had forced us to choose between two town. I don't know why everyone bought that et was being spontaneous and carefree though.

[xorxes]

This might be the most mechanically and mindgaming interesting thing I’ve seen. I’m turning in for the night, but we need to spend some serious time thinking this. Big questions:

1. Did Dargo counterclaim have to do with the Tracker specifically? Why CC Espresso over someone like Jamiet or worcej who have more scum reads?

The Tracker was the only obvious role that was going to be claimed today, so if they planned to counterclaim today it would have to be the Tracker.

2. Is Dargo actually the tracker? The roleblock makes me wonder, because there would be no reason to hold the roleblock or to use it on the NK target on night 3, as far as I can tell. So mafia would be incentivized to actually roleblock someone they think is tracker.

True, unless they know there is no Tracker. This works against Espresso.

3. If one of them is the cow, who is the target of the disease? A thought occurs to me - what if it’s Tom? In that situation, him lynching either of them is a DISASTER for town because it means we lose 2 townies for 1 mafia.

Clears should not be in the lynch wagon, they should say how many and which unclears vote for whoever we decide, and the rest should be self-voting. Only two is probably too little, we don't want to make it too easy for them to just tie it.

4. Could mafia be planning to power steal their own guy somehow if the power thief is in play? Similarly, what if the double vote is in play and that could manipulate things?

That's a very good point. Not sure if cow power can be stolen since it's used N0.

I think we need the full phase time to figure out the least dangerous solution. So no end voting.

Indeed. That's one point against dargo.

The PT role takes the power tree in the event of a mislynch. I don't think they can steal scum powers.

As you said, PT also steals the the power tree, meaning they do not regain used abilities.

I assume they could steal the double-vote or the roleblock, but not the disease?

[EspressoPatronum]

Btw, from my point of view:

Assuming ant or no, bozo is slightly less likely to be mafia than others. Fmpv, I know there was no roleblock used, so it's still possible for scum!bozo

That being said, scum!bozo in a no-ant game could have carried out the NK on N2 and left it to someone else on N3, leaving me to miss the track on N3.

_____

I'm looking for people pushing the same agenda +/ stirring up confusion. Bozo and foodcoats stand out to me.

On the other hand, Jamiet and xorxes appear unsure and are willing to talk things out, with Chaqa doing the same to a lesser degree. Town points to them.

[EspressoPatronum]

I assume they could steal the double-vote or the roleblock, but not the disease?

From the role's description on p1: "...if you are one of the first two players to vote on a mislynch..."

I don't think mafia lynches count as mislynches, so I'm assuming the PT can't steal mafia powers.

[EspressoPatronum]

...
Let's send in someone with a written up organized formatted reasonable (although not crumbed... because we didn't think of that back then.) SOmeone not scumread much. Someone who can come in and look GOOD.
...

Xorxes used this same line of reasoning as scum last game to help discredit me. Xorxes and some others said my huge wall post was too calculated and organized to be town.

You're doing the same thing here.

Truish, but not exactly. I said that I believed both you and et were town, but that since you were more calculated and organized, that was easier to fake and so I voted, reluctantly, for you over et because the Judge had forced us to choose between two town. I don't know why everyone bought that et was being spontaneous and carefree though.

Ah kk, thanks for clarifying. In the end, my appearance as being calculated and organized was a factor in my death (though probably not as impactful as it being TvS).

He came across as genuine, which is pretty hard to fake. He had me fooled tbh.

[xorxes]

I assume they could steal the double-vote or the roleblock, but not the disease?

From the role's description on p1: "...if you are one of the first two players to vote on a mislynch..."

I don't think mafia lynches count as mislynches, so I'm assuming the PT can't steal mafia powers.

Good point. Can someone check with the GMs, I'm on phone atm.

[ItsHosuke]

So the simplest thing is for everyone to self vote, except It'sHosuke and one other person, who should vote Darg.

Yes?

##VOTE JAMIET

Why should we do so?

##vote itshosuke for now

[ItsHosuke]

Wouldn't the logical person to vote for Darg being Hosuke?

Anyone who isn't clear is at risk to be a mafia, and Hosuke is super unlikely to be the cow target I think.

Ohh okk, I just saw this.


##vote dargorygel

[ItsHosuke]

Guys, there is a possibility that Tracker is a fakeclaim role and both Espresso and Darg are scum and one is the Cow, and they have done this purposefully so that one of our town clears will blow themselves up on (likely) Darg.

I think this is likely, actually. Town speculated (incorrectly) on a similar ploy in M46, and several players from that game are in this one...

I spectated that game, and oh dear...

[ItsHosuke]

Sorry, brainfart. That doesn't work.

It does with a simple modification: everyone except the clear unvotes. They're all mod-killed, Town wins.

This is actually... not a terrible plan lmao

Best plan ever! xD

[flash2015]

OK, I will follow the plan:

##VOTE Flash2015

[bozotheclown]

I was mostly asking wrt to my claim. I have to go in a bit though + figured there's a very slim chance nobody claims roleblocked, so I just went for it Town not claiming is anti-town. Scum not claiming it is weird.

This is an interesting comment about the scum claiming the RB, Espresso seems to be saying if the scum did not use the RB they would be sure to claim it. I think that is an odd position to take considering what happened to Vapor. He could have been setting up dargorygel.

Explain a situation to me in which a RB claim doesn't happen. I outlined earlier why I think either town or scum will always claim RB in this situation.

The mafia could choose not to use the RB so there is no risk of the roleblocker getting tracked, and choose not to claim it to avoid drawing suspicion as Vapor did.

[bozotheclown]

I want to know who claims DP, Bulletproof and Absorber, since they are all uncomfortable roles for Mafia to claim.

If your theory is correct, one of those roles would be unclaimed, which would not tell us anything.