Mafia 47 - The Sixth Mass Extinction - GAME THREAD [HIDDEN]

[dargorygel]

And so last night...
They say...
(THEY WOULD NOT SAY)

I know... let's send in DARG to fake claim. You know, the guy who on bozo's list is the most scumread.
\
You know, the guy who has never fakeclaimed EVER in mafia.
You know, the guy who only claimed PR ONCE when he had to provfe it right away by shooting some people.

And even THEN he sounded like scum.

Let's send HIM in to fake a claim.

BRILLIANT PLAN... stupid town will NEVER see it coming!

And let''s have him present NO cogent plan... an off the cuff desparate sounding thing that is bland.
(BECAUSE I DIDN"T PLAN ON CLAIMING YET! DO YOU REALLY THINK SO LITTLE OF ME THAT YOU THINK I WOULD CLAIM LIKE THAT????)

OR...
or
or

Let's send in someone with a written up organized formatted reasonable (although not crumbed... because we didn't think of that back then.) SOmeone not scumread much. Someone who can come in and look GOOD.

Which do you really think, oh bright townclears and the rest of you... which do you think is the more likely plan thatTHIS SCUM team would come up with?

[dargorygel]

I don't know what they are doing.
But I suspect it has to do with massclaims, or unvotes or lots of time to set up and read for things or fool people.

##VOTE ESPRESSO

[dargorygel]

wait i did that already
##END

[dargorygel]

goodnight
don't be fooled, town.

no one would send me in like that to fakeclaim.

[bozotheclown]

I'm going to hardclaim Stick bug, I know the Mafia has fakeclaims, but I can always be lynched D5 if I do nothing.

It makes me Town because in a previous game where I was the doc, I also claimed at a time when there wasn't actually any pressure. I really have trouble gauging this like sincerity, tone, and the overall room feel in text. Don't get me wrong, I love this game, but I am playing against my strengths and SUCK at Mafia. It's also just not in my personality to get indignant IRL, and the only times I act that way is sarcastically as a joke.
And my role can only cop scan once, and only after night 5.
Read the OP.

I Highly doubt I'm N1 NK. Since I can't prove I'm Town until At least Day 5, the mafia have plenty of time to orchestrate my mislynch. People are going to start suspecting me again as soon as I live through a couple nights, despite it not making that much sense to NK me, they might let me live past turn 5 and push for my mislynch. Although I'd have no reason not to claim my scan, and once I flip people will know it's true, but I still think the mafia will push a mislynch rather than NK me.

Night 5. So I can't prove I'm Town until Day 6, mea culpa.

In this sequence, Percy says he can scan N4, then N6, then back to N4, before acknowledging it is N5.

No, you just pointed to the same mistake I made in all of them... Day five coming after Night five in my mind. The last one is where I realize Day 6 comes after Night 5.

In the second post, you said you can only scan after N5, implying N6.

[Jamiet99uk]

wait i did that already
##END

Lol, no no no, we are not end hammering. There is plenty to talk about.

[Jamiet99uk]

@Darg: Please answer my question about your crumb.

@Tom: Do you think the remaining players should claim?

[bozotheclown]

They do? Enough for scum to figure out?

Normally I'd say no, but Vecna got sniped N1 and Damos got hit last night.

I'm not sure whether this is all coincidence or skill.

It was patently obvious that damo was either Tracker or Doc, I don't think that part required that much skill.

As soon as you claimed it was obvious damo was the doctor if he was town, he knew "later in the game" would not imply tracker.

[Chaqa]

Ugh. Dargo is reminding me of games where no one believed me when I was claiming. This is annoying.

[bozotheclown]

Assuming Chaqa is town and the mafia get a 2 for 1 NK, it is mylo if the cow is a able to take out a town, so it seems likely the fake claimer is the cow and his target is still in play. To protect against this, 2 votes on whoever gets lynched should be enough, with 1 being the counterclaimer. This would require 2 more mafia to reveal themselves to get a mislynch if we pick correctly.

[bozotheclown]

The mafia might have just been willing to make a 1 for 1 trade here. I have a feeling dargorygel is the real tracker, I doubt the mafia would be counting on Espresso getting lynched over dargorygel.

[Jamiet99uk]

So the simplest thing is for everyone to self vote, except It'sHosuke and one other person, who should vote Darg.

Yes?

##VOTE JAMIET

[Jamiet99uk]

The mafia might have just been willing to make a 1 for 1 trade here. I have a feeling dargorygel is the real tracker, I doubt the mafia would be counting on Espresso getting lynched over dargorygel.

In that case if we flip Darg and he's the tracker, then my push on Espresso yesterday may reveal useful clues. Who defended Espresso against my push? We're their reasons for defending him credible?

[bozotheclown]

I'm the tracker. All that "maf has tracker stuff" last night was a (successful) attempt to avoid getting roleblocked.

Xorxes did not visit anyone on N2. I chose xorxes because he was one of my top scumreads. I scaled back my read knowing that he stayed at home.
1. Assuming ant & knowing that hooker visited Vapor, xorxes is 40% less likely to be maf.
2. Assuming no ant & knowing that hooker visited Vapor, xorxes is 20% less likely to be maf.

Bozotheclown did not visit anyone N3. I chose bozo because he was the most popular scumread. If he visited anyone, it would have been easy to lead a lunch against him.
1. Assuming ant & assuming hooker visited someone, bozo is 40% less likely to be maf.
2. Assuming no ant & assuming hooker visited someone, bozo is 20% less likely to be maf.
3. Assuming no ant & assuming hooker did not visit someone (i.e. scum claims roleblocked), bozo is 0% less likely to be maf.

Notes:
While I still think the DP smokescreen was worth it, I mostly used it as an excuse to do a tracker smokescreen the following night without attracting the attention of the mafia.

I voted Vapor because of the tracker ambiguity & his hard town stance on me.

There are 2 things I noticed about this post. First, Espresso makes a mistake about how the tracker role works, since the tracker would be able to track the mafia performing the NK whether it was the ant or not. Second, Espresso displays a specific knowledge about the mafia by pointing out that there may not be ant.

[bozotheclown]

Actually, learning about the roleblock doesn't matter, does it?
Either scum used it and a town claims roleblocked, or scum held it and scum claims roleblocked.

Are there any scenarios in which someone wasn't roleblocked?

Whether they used the roleblock or not does tell us something, so yes, we need to know if they chose to roleblock again.

I was mostly asking wrt to my claim. I have to go in a bit though + figured there's a very slim chance nobody claims roleblocked, so I just went for it Town not claiming is anti-town. Scum not claiming it is weird.

This is an interesting comment about the scum claiming the RB, Espresso seems to be saying if the scum did not use the RB they would be sure to claim it. I think that is an odd position to take considering what happened to Vapor. He could have been setting up dargorygel.

[Chaqa]

This might be the most mechanically and mindgaming interesting thing I’ve seen. I’m turning in for the night, but we need to spend some serious time thinking this. Big questions:

1. Did Dargo counterclaim have to do with the Tracker specifically? Why CC Espresso over someone like Jamiet or worcej who have more scum reads?

2. Is Dargo actually the tracker? The roleblock makes me wonder, because there would be no reason to hold the roleblock or to use it on the NK target on night 3, as far as I can tell. So mafia would be incentivized to actually roleblock someone they think is tracker.

3. If one of them is the cow, who is the target of the disease? A thought occurs to me - what if it’s Tom? In that situation, him lynching either of them is a DISASTER for town because it means we lose 2 townies for 1 mafia.

4. Could mafia be planning to power steal their own guy somehow if the power thief is in play? Similarly, what if the double vote is in play and that could manipulate things?

I think we need the full phase time to figure out the least dangerous solution. So no end voting.

[Jamiet99uk]

@Chaqa - I cannot be Cc'ed at this point in time.

[foodcoats]

The way I see it we have to lynch both EP and darg now. I don't see why scum ever makes this claim or counterclaim except to push someone deep. I think the most likely scenario is this is scum versus scum.

[dargorygel]

@Jamie. "I was gone a LOT" was a crumb only because trackers are out in the wilderness wandering around all the time. Admittedly, not a great crumb.

[xorxes]

This might be the most mechanically and mindgaming interesting thing I’ve seen. I’m turning in for the night, but we need to spend some serious time thinking this. Big questions:

1. Did Dargo counterclaim have to do with the Tracker specifically? Why CC Espresso over someone like Jamiet or worcej who have more scum reads?

The Tracker was the only obvious role that was going to be claimed today, so if they planned to counterclaim today it would have to be the Tracker.

2. Is Dargo actually the tracker? The roleblock makes me wonder, because there would be no reason to hold the roleblock or to use it on the NK target on night 3, as far as I can tell. So mafia would be incentivized to actually roleblock someone they think is tracker.

True, unless they know there is no Tracker. This works against Espresso.

3. If one of them is the cow, who is the target of the disease? A thought occurs to me - what if it’s Tom? In that situation, him lynching either of them is a DISASTER for town because it means we lose 2 townies for 1 mafia.

Clears should not be in the lynch wagon, they should say how many and which unclears vote for whoever we decide, and the rest should be self-voting. Only two is probably too little, we don't want to make it too easy for them to just tie it.

4. Could mafia be planning to power steal their own guy somehow if the power thief is in play? Similarly, what if the double vote is in play and that could manipulate things?

That's a very good point. Not sure if cow power can be stolen since it's used N0.

I think we need the full phase time to figure out the least dangerous solution. So no end voting.

Indeed. That's one point against dargo.