Mafia 47 - The Sixth Mass Extinction - GAME THREAD [HIDDEN]

[EspressoPatronum]

Ok... thanks espresso. For lying through your teeth. And revealing our first scum.

I am the tracker.

N2, PW did not go anywhere. I chose him simply because I scumread him.
N3 I TRIED to track xorxes. But I was roll blocked.

I am again, by the side of the road... but needed to post this asap.

##VOTE ESPRESSOPATRONUM

And we have a counteclaim. Wonderful.

I have to say Espresso is much more believable, but I will reread both. (Fortunately your iso is short.)

If you were a cow, who would you spread disease to?

He'd probably pick any of the big names who are unlikely to be mislynched. It's unlikely they'd have NKd the disease target, too.

You're at the top of the list imo. Brain/Tom would be near the bottom.

[xorxes]

Wow, a counter claim?

For real, we got counterclaims? Neat

Am I being too much of a cynic if I think these people are faking it?

[bozotheclown]

Tracker counterclaims and the damo NK have shown my N3 theory had some major holes in it. I am still not convinced xorxes is town though.

[xorxes]

I'm the tracker. All that "maf has tracker stuff" last night was a (successful) attempt to avoid getting roleblocked.

Xorxes did not visit anyone on N2. I chose xorxes because he was one of my top scumreads. I scaled back my read knowing that he stayed at home.
1. Assuming ant & knowing that hooker visited Vapor, xorxes is 40% less likely to be maf.
2. Assuming no ant & knowing that hooker visited Vapor, xorxes is 20% less likely to be maf.

Bozotheclown did not visit anyone N3. I chose bozo because he was the most popular scumread. If he visited anyone, it would have been easy to lead a lunch against him.
1. Assuming ant & assuming hooker visited someone, bozo is 40% less likely to be maf.
2. Assuming no ant & assuming hooker visited someone, bozo is 20% less likely to be maf.
3. Assuming no ant & assuming hooker did not visit someone (i.e. scum claims roleblocked), bozo is 0% less likely to be maf.

Notes:
While I still think the DP smokescreen was worth it, I mostly used it as an excuse to do a tracker smokescreen the following night without attracting the attention of the mafia.

I voted Vapor because of the tracker ambiguity & his hard town stance on me.

I will reread you with all of this in mind. So basically you were the only one that knew that damo could only be the doctor if his claim was true.

Do you know for sure that if there is no ant you cannot track whoever else does the kill, or are you just assuming?

If I had the information to know damo was telling the truth, I didn't put the pieces together tbh. I thought he was scum.

Good point about the no ant tracking. I see no reason why I couldn't track the non-ant killer, but I don't see a world in which scum!xorxes decides to carry out the kill in light of his innocent child reveal. To be fair to the numbers then, I suppose there's a slightly different percent than 20% if there was no ant but there was a hooker visit.

If I was scum, I was already caught by D7, why wouldn't I do the kill since I was already exposed?

Also, choosing someone that was already caught if they were scum was not the best idea.

[EspressoPatronum]

I would like to see some crumbs from our claimants if they exist.

I see no point in crumbing in this setup, as there's no reason to believe you'll be counterclaimed. All if my play leading up to my reveal was meant to help deflect attention from me until I used my tracks.

If dargo has crumbs, that's reason to believe he's been planning to CC since whenever he left a crumb.

Thanks for pointing that out to him.

My experience with succeeding in counterclaim fights thus far has been twofold: 1) get ahead of whatever they're going to say, and 2) provide as much information as possible to help town make their decision. It's easier to convince someone who hasn't made up their mind than it is to sway someone after they've decided.

With that in mind, I'd rather lose the potential of darg giving away crumbs than I would Chaqa being convinced by darg's said crumbs. Besides, if darg crumbed tracker, we can likely comb through his iso and find anything related to dogs or trackers.

[bo_sox48]

Wow, a counter claim?

For real, we got counterclaims? Neat

Am I being too much of a cynic if I think these people are faking it?

Yes.

[EspressoPatronum]

I will reread you with all of this in mind. So basically you were the only one that knew that damo could only be the doctor if his claim was true.

Do you know for sure that if there is no ant you cannot track whoever else does the kill, or are you just assuming?

If I had the information to know damo was telling the truth, I didn't put the pieces together tbh. I thought he was scum.

Good point about the no ant tracking. I see no reason why I couldn't track the non-ant killer, but I don't see a world in which scum!xorxes decides to carry out the kill in light of his innocent child reveal. To be fair to the numbers then, I suppose there's a slightly different percent than 20% if there was no ant but there was a hooker visit.

If I was scum, I was already caught by D7, why wouldn't I do the kill since I was already exposed?

Also, choosing someone that was already caught if they were scum was not the best idea.

At the time of N2, a major thread of discourse was that D7 would be too late for town to vet your claim. I wanted to get ahead of it.

Even Percy's D4 claim was criticized for being almost too late to vet.

[Chaqa]

Guys, there is a possibility that Tracker is a fakeclaim role and both Espresso and Darg are scum and one is the Cow, and they have done this purposefully so that one of our town clears will blow themselves up on (likely) Darg.

[bo_sox48]

Guys, there is a possibility that Tracker is a fakeclaim role and both Espresso and Darg are scum and one is the Cow, and they have done this purposefully so that one of our town clears will blow themselves up on (likely) Darg.

This is interesting.

[Chaqa]

I do share bo's confusion and consternation that this doesn't make much sense.

@Xorx: Jamiet and Bo's reactions seem very fake to me as well.

Darg/Bo/Jamiet/Percy/Bozo?

[EspressoPatronum]

I have to go. I'll be back to answer questions and address concerns in a few hours.

[xorxes]

Why did both claimants wait almost three hours to make the claim? I thought that should be the first thing that should be done after EON.

Yep.

Admittedly, the risk of being nighgtkilled for both of them approached zero, but Espresso didn't even know that damo was the Doc so how would he know that he was under no risk? And dargo is clearly scum, possibly the cow.

I think the clears should nominate one person to vote for dargo and everyone else should vote no-lybch, but that's just my opinion. I don't want to get cow disease.

[Jamiet99uk]

Wow, a counter claim?

For real, we got counterclaims? Neat

Am I being too much of a cynic if I think these people are faking it?

In my case, yes. I cannot comment for BO

[Jamiet99uk]

Why did both claimants wait almost three hours to make the claim? I thought that should be the first thing that should be done after EON.

Yep.

Admittedly, the risk of being nighgtkilled for both of them approached zero, but Espresso didn't even know that damo was the Doc so how would he know that he was under no risk? And dargo is clearly scum, possibly the cow.

I think the clears should nominate one person to vote for dargo and everyone else should vote no-lybch, but that's just my opinion. I don't want to get cow disease.

I think this is a good proposal.

I would happily volunteer to be the sole Dargo voter, if desired.

[xorxes]

Tracker counterclaims and the damo NK have shown my N3 theory had some major holes in it. I am still not convinced xorxes is town though.

Just wait for D7...

[Chaqa]

Wouldn't the logical person to vote for Darg being Hosuke?

Anyone who isn't clear is at risk to be a mafia, and Hosuke is super unlikely to be the cow target I think.

[Percy Williams]

I'm going to hardclaim Stick bug, I know the Mafia has fakeclaims, but I can always be lynched D5 if I do nothing.

the fact you keep making dreadfull posts like this only further confirms we did not get town leader xorxes.

How does percy making a weakass claim when he was under no direct pressure make him town? Town would be indignant if they were a strong pr and got wrongly scumread. This was just scum survival. The fact jamiet freaked out just fits in a world where he realized his scummate juat claimed a role that needs to be nightkilled.

But hey, lets see if he dies tonight right? A rolecop. With most coming nights having protectives. Tonigjt is probably scums only chance to kill him to avoid getting a clear or a guilty.

It makes me Town because in a previous game where I was the doc, I also claimed at a time when there wasn't actually any pressure. I really have trouble gauging this like sincerity, tone, and the overall room feel in text. Don't get me wrong, I love this game, but I am playing against my strengths and SUCK at Mafia. It's also just not in my personality to get indignant IRL, and the only times I act that way is sarcastically as a joke.
And my role can only cop scan once, and only after night 5.
Read the OP.

@brain @rdr @Percy @ItsHosuke

As prime N1 NK targets I trust you will leave some wise words before close of N1.

Actually, @ALL Should ItsHosuke reveal his Mason partner in case he gets killed N1?

I Highly doubt I'm N1 NK. Since I can't prove I'm Town until At least Day 5, the mafia have plenty of time to orchestrate my mislynch. People are going to start suspecting me again as soon as I live through a couple nights, despite it not making that much sense to NK me, they might let me live past turn 5 and push for my mislynch. Although I'd have no reason not to claim my scan, and once I flip people will know it's true, but I still think the mafia will push a mislynch rather than NK me.

When is the first night you can scan?

Night 5. So I can't prove I'm Town until Day 6, mea culpa.

In this sequence, Percy says he can scan N4, then N6, then back to N4, before acknowledging it is N5.

No, you just pointed to the same mistake I made in all of them... Day five coming after Night five in my mind. The last one is where I realize Day 6 comes after Night 5.

[Foxcastle]

Why did both claimants wait almost three hours to make the claim? I thought that should be the first thing that should be done after EON.

Yep.

Admittedly, the risk of being nighgtkilled for both of them approached zero, but Espresso didn't even know that damo was the Doc so how would he know that he was under no risk? And dargo is clearly scum, possibly the cow.

I think the clears should nominate one person to vote for dargo and everyone else should vote no-lybch, but that's just my opinion. I don't want to get cow disease.

I think this is a good proposal.

I would happily volunteer to be the sole Dargo voter, if desired.

Why shouldn't one of the clears be the voter? ItsHosuke, for example. He's unlikely to have been the target of the cow.

[xorxes]

I think the clears should nominate one person to vote for dargo and everyone else should vote no-lybch, but that's just my opinion. I don't want to get cow disease.

Sorry, brainfart. That doesn't work.

[Foxcastle]

I think the clears should nominate one person to vote for dargo and everyone else should vote no-lybch, but that's just my opinion. I don't want to get cow disease.

Sorry, brainfart. That doesn't work.

It does with a simple modification: everyone except the clear unvotes. They're all mod-killed, Town wins.