Mafia 47 - The Sixth Mass Extinction - GAME THREAD [HIDDEN]

[bozotheclown]

Add Damo to the point on Chaqa above. Why do either of them think they're going to die tonight??

damo is implying he will be the NK because of his role. If both damo and Chaqa get killed tonight I will be proven wrong, but I suspect we will see them both D4.

BOTH? What do you know?

I know you both said you do not expect to survive the night.

[bozotheclown]

Don't be ridiculous. Those reads were from before EOD2. I made it perfectly clear that Chaqa was my top townread after EOD2 and you know it very well, because we compared reads lists, so you are being disingenuous here.

What you said does not make sense, I said you should have been voting for Chaqa D2, not after D2 EOD.

My bad. I thought you were talking about the last vote. I didn't realize you were rehashing something you had already asked about, I had already explained, and you had presumably been satisfied with since you were townreading me later on.

I considered your explanation possible, but still suspicious, because there was not a good reason to have your read of emc tied so tightly to Foxcastle, and there was not a good reason to scum read Foxcastle in the first place.

[bozotheclown]

I would like all town to take a close look at this table provided by xorxes, that shows his best guess at the scum team:

Vaporwave (7) flash worcej dargo bozo bo_sox Espresso Jamiet
worcej (3) damo ItsHosuke Foxcastle
bozo (2) Chaqa Percy
dargo (2) xorxes Tom
flash (1) Vaporwave
Espresso (1) foodcoats

He is saying that he believes the entire mafia team was voting for Vapor, even though he thinks that worcej and Espresso are town. He thinks bo_sox switched his vote from worcej to Vapor when worcej and Vapor were tied at 5 to join 3 of his teammates on Vapor. He thinks Jamie moved his vote to Vapor 10 minutes before EOD to join all 4 of his teammates on a guaranteed town lynch.

Bear in mind that I had made a big deal N2 about how scum try not to vote together.

What do you make of bo's vote?

So you believe the mafia decided to vote together D3 to throw you off?

I think the only way bo_sox's vote on Vapor is scum motivated is if he is scum with worcej. What do you think, since you think worcej is town?

[bozotheclown]

If bozo's scumteam is correct... worth considering:

Vote Count Day 1

emc (6) Foxcastle Espresso xorxes foodcoats bo_sox bozo Vecna
bozo (6) worcej emc damo Percy rdrivera Chaqa
Percy (1) dargo
brainbomb (1) flash
Moscow (1) ItsHosuke
dargo (1) Vaporwave
damo (1) Jamiet
Espresso (2) brainbomb

Yes, I'd like to know if bozo really thinks 4 scum were on his wagon D1.

I am not as confident about worcej as the others. Chaqa did not vote for me until the last minute when I was relatively safe from getting lynched and he implied he would follow rdrivera. It is more likely 3 or 4 scum would end on the second wagon than all 5 scum ending on the top wagon.

[Foxcastle]

Percy kinda did need saving on D1. He was tied for the lead 20 minutes out. So if he is scum (as I suspect), then most if not all of the scum would be on EMC and Bozo.

[bozotheclown]

@foodcoats@EspressoPatronum What do you all think about being the only ones not included in either scumteam?

I'm okay with it.

That said, I do not think trying to peg the whole scum team is a productive methodology at this point. xorxes and bozo are building their scumteams based on assumptions. For example, in the below, I think it is far more useful to focus on the first paragraph than the second. Because we do not know the answer to whether bozo is town/scum, speculating about busses and wagons based on whether bozo is town/scum is a distraction.

Fox, do you think bozo is town?

If he is town, I agree that at least one of those four is likely scum, but if he is scum, which of the four is the most likely to be bussing?

I think we should be striving to use Occam's razor - "in explaining a thing no more assumptions should be made than are necessary" - i.e. find simple arguments. Personally I think what I am going to do next is look at who pushed to lynch townclears (including the town who are dead). Something interesting might pop up there.

(By the way... I'm not saying this line of reasoning is scum-indicative, despite my other reads on xor. Town love trying to peg the whole team at once, and I realize that I am biased towards doing iso's... it's just what I like to do and others may have a different analytical preference. But I just don't think it's profitable for town to think this way at the current time when we have zero confirmed scum.)

I would look at xorxes first, his push to reveal the second mason was suspicious independent of his confidence that all of the claimers are town.

[bozotheclown]

I'm going to hardclaim Stick bug, I know the Mafia has fakeclaims, but I can always be lynched D5 if I do nothing.

If you're still suspecting Percy after his claim that only confirms my hunch that you're scum.

damo also made some pretty specific claims that suggest he is town, and in any case should not be lynched in the near future.

I haven't seen anything from emc to change my scumlean on him, and Jamiet is a null for now.

the fact you keep making dreadfull posts like this only further confirms we did not get town leader xorxes.

How does percy making a weakass claim when he was under no direct pressure make him town? Town would be indignant if they were a strong pr and got wrongly scumread. This was just scum survival. The fact jamiet freaked out just fits in a world where he realized his scummate juat claimed a role that needs to be nightkilled.

But hey, lets see if he dies tonight right? A rolecop. With most coming nights having protectives. Tonigjt is probably scums only chance to kill him to avoid getting a clear or a guilty.

It makes me Town because in a previous game where I was the doc, I also claimed at a time when there wasn't actually any pressure. I really have trouble gauging this like sincerity, tone, and the overall room feel in text. Don't get me wrong, I love this game, but I am playing against my strengths and SUCK at Mafia. It's also just not in my personality to get indignant IRL, and the only times I act that way is sarcastically as a joke.
And my role can only cop scan once, and only after night 5.
Read the OP.

@brain @rdr @Percy @ItsHosuke

As prime N1 NK targets I trust you will leave some wise words before close of N1.

Actually, @ALL Should ItsHosuke reveal his Mason partner in case he gets killed N1?

I Highly doubt I'm N1 NK. Since I can't prove I'm Town until At least Day 5, the mafia have plenty of time to orchestrate my mislynch. People are going to start suspecting me again as soon as I live through a couple nights, despite it not making that much sense to NK me, they might let me live past turn 5 and push for my mislynch. Although I'd have no reason not to claim my scan, and once I flip people will know it's true, but I still think the mafia will push a mislynch rather than NK me.

I Highly doubt I'm N1 NK. Since I can't prove I'm Town until At least Day 5, the mafia have plenty of time to orchestrate my mislynch. People are going to start suspecting me again as soon as I live through a couple nights, despite it not making that much sense to NK me, they might let me live past turn 5 and push for my mislynch. Although I'd have no reason not to claim my scan, and once I flip people will know it's true, but I still think the mafia will push a mislynch rather than NK me.

When is the first night you can scan?

Night 5. So I can't prove I'm Town until Day 6, mea culpa.

In this sequence, Percy says he can scan N4, then N6, then back to N4, before acknowledging it is N5.

[bozotheclown]

Eh?

Oh, I thought we were just posting random things. The post at the same time strategy to find our masons is inherently flawed, as Itshosuke has made it clear that he and his partner are in different time zones.

Being in different timezones does not prevent them from being online at some agreed time together, which may be morning for one and late evening for the other, for example.

I'm going to ##VOTE ItsHosuke for now because there's something fishy going on when the two people with claimed powers that can threaten Mafia are the two leading wagons and there may be a powerthief on the loose.

As xorxes pointed out to me, if scum were trying to lynch Percy or damo because of their threatening claimed roles, the existence of a power thief is irrelevant.

[bozotheclown]

I've been on the fence about Jamiet, give me a moment to do an ISO on him. Here's a more current read list:

Town
Rdriver
Brainbomb
EMC
Damo
Itshosuke
Foxcastle
Chaqa


Scum
Bozotheclown


I know I didn't add more scum yet, but I did add more Town.

The green ones are not reads, those are clears (or will be soon). Chaqa is in my mind almost a clear as well because of his verifiable claim.

So really you have one townread and one scumread. I agree with the townread, disagree with the scumread.

How is Chaqa's claim verifiable, by killing everyone else first?

[bozotheclown]

New scumteam: Darg EP Flash Jamie Vapor

Other possibles: Bo Bozo

Let's see what we have:

Clears:
Brainbomb
Rdrivera
Foxcastle
ItsHosuke

Roughly towniest to scummiest:

Xorxes
Chaqa
Damo
Worcej
Bozo
Foodcoats
Percy
Vapor
Bo_sox
Dargo
Espresso
Flash
Jamiet

So I guess my new entry is:

Jamiet-Flash-Espresso-Dargo-Bo

But I can see Vapor and/or Percy replacing someone there. I haven't really checked much for connections or inconsistencies yet.

Here are the updated scum reads of damo and xorxes N2. They are very similar, and both have bo_sox, dargorygel, Espresso, flash, Jamie, and Vapor among their top 6 or 7 scum reads. With Vapor flipping town, they both are apparently OK with keeping their reads the same and just replacing Vapor with me.

[bo_sox48]

Percy kinda did need saving on D1. He was tied for the lead 20 minutes out. So if he is scum (as I suspect), then most if not all of the scum would be on EMC and Bozo.

Is there a rationale behind Percy being scum other than him not knowing the minute particulars of his role? I understand that pretense but I've never been one to simply trust that people are smart and read things through.

[bozotheclown]

Hosuke, Percy and damo get a temporary pass until their claims are verified or disproven.

Consider this from xorxes N1 and what he did with regard to Hosuke D2 when Percy and damo were the top wagons.

[bozotheclown]

Percy kinda did need saving on D1. He was tied for the lead 20 minutes out. So if he is scum (as I suspect), then most if not all of the scum would be on EMC and Bozo.

Is there a rationale behind Percy being scum other than him not knowing the minute particulars of his role? I understand that pretense but I've never been one to simply trust that people are smart and read things through.

Look at when and how he claimed his role.

[bo_sox48]

Percy kinda did need saving on D1. He was tied for the lead 20 minutes out. So if he is scum (as I suspect), then most if not all of the scum would be on EMC and Bozo.

Is there a rationale behind Percy being scum other than him not knowing the minute particulars of his role? I understand that pretense but I've never been one to simply trust that people are smart and read things through.

Look at when and how he claimed his role.

I remember it, there was really no use to it, but there was a reason for him to be ready with something to claim. I suppose that lends some credence to him being scum.

[dargorygel]

Pulled over to the side of the road... Kind of rushed but wanted to put this out. Scumpool right now is xorxes, bo, and espresso. With a Jamie lean. Good luck town!

[Chaqa]

Crap. I woke up late and I only have about 15 minutes here to put together this Bozo case. I'll see what I can do.

Point 1: The Massclaim
Some will disagree with me here, but from the moment I saw it I hated this idea. This setup is much more mechanical and PoE-based than a vanilla setup, and with the mafia having a list of fake claim roles, giving them full information is one of the worst ideas I've heard all game. Perhaps it would make sense in the end game, but proposing it on Day 1? But going deeper, what was his stated motivation for proposing it?

Page 4: "I think town would be better off if everyone claimed their roles to force the scum to claim their fake roles. Otherwise, when we are about to lynch scum, they will just pick their best fake role and claim it to divert the lynch to a town member."

I kinda get what he's saying, but the benefit is so skewed in favor of the mafia that there's no way a towny would continue supporting this idea. If we had massclaimed, the mafia would be able to systematically pick off our key roles. Even without the massclaim, we lost our Jailer Night 1. Imagine how much worse it would be if we lost other key roles?

Point 2: Votes
I covered this briefly on Night 2, but the way Bozo has escaped lynch as a counterwagon on Day 1 and 2 is really suspect to me. I think his scum teammates have been putting in overtime to protect him, perhaps he is an important role? Or perhaps they just think once he falls, the whole house of cards crumbles down.

He spent Day 1 voting for Dargo, Food, and finally EMC. Day 2 he voted for food again, and finally moved over to vote for me at the very end. Day 3 he voted for worcej and was an important vote in putting Vapor into the lead wagon.

Point 3: Town Clears
Please see the post I made earlier this night phase about why the town clears are a good point against Bozo. Brain/Tom, Rivera, Hosuke, and Vapor all had suspicions on him.

Point 4: Posts
Page 157:

13/17 reporting:
bozo: dargorygel, bo_sox, worcej, Vapor, Percy
xorxes: Jamie, flash, EspressoPatronum, dargorygel, bo_sox
brainbomb: bozo, flash, bo_sox, damo, dargorygel
Jamie: Chaqa, dargorygel, flash, foodcoats, xorxes
damo: dargorygel, flash, EspressoPatronum, bo_sox, worcej
Foxcastle: Percy, emc, damo, Vapor, Chaqa
Vapor: bo_sox, Chaqa, dargorygel, emc, Jamie
flash: Percy, bo_sox, xorxes, emc, worcej
rdrivera: bozo, foodcoats, flash, worcej, bo_sox
worcej: Vapor, Hosuke, dargorygel, Chaqa, foodcoats
EspressoPatronum: damo, emc, Percy, xorxes, worcej
Chaqa: bozo, bo_sox, dargorygel, Percy, flash/Vapor
Hosuke: flash, bo_sox, Percy, dargorygel, Chaqa
bo_sox:
dargorygel:
foodcoats:
Percy:
​
bozo: 3
bo_sox: 9
brainbomb: 0
Chaqa: 5
damo: 3
dargorygel: 9
emc: 4
EspressoPatronum : 2
flash: 6.5
foodcoats: 3
Foxcastle: 0
ItsHosuke: 1
Jamie: 2
Percy: 6
rdrivera: 0
Vapor: 3.5
worcej: 5
xorxes: 3

I am going to stop updating this list. I thought it might be useful to get everyone on record, maybe it will help when we start lynching scum.

I use this one post as an example, but this entire reads list thing he put together is almost like a fucking infograph for mafia on who they need to prioritize. He's basically laid it all out there for his team. I bet we could determine a lot of information by analyzing who is targeted for lynches and night kills based on this ( at least once the town clears are gone, which seems likely to happen first)

Page 184:

If my theory is correct, the remaining non-cleared town (bo_sox, dargorygel, Espresso, flash, foodcoats, Jamie, and myself) have the following roles, except for the one extra role: doctor, bulletproof, absorber, oracle, and 3 VTs.

This post is extremely scummy to me. It's almost like he is trying to put out there information the mafia has about fake claim roles to make it appear like he "knew" that players had those roles, setting up him to believe fake claims from anyone in that group.

This is a bit rushed, unfortunately, but I urge the town to get rid of him because I'm certain once we do we will have a plethora of information to catch the other scum with.

Ran out of time. Good luck everyone.

Vote for these people:
- Bozo
- Dargo
- Bo
- Percy

[Foxcastle]

Percy kinda did need saving on D1. He was tied for the lead 20 minutes out. So if he is scum (as I suspect), then most if not all of the scum would be on EMC and Bozo.

Is there a rationale behind Percy being scum other than him not knowing the minute particulars of his role? I understand that pretense but I've never been one to simply trust that people are smart and read things through.

Was more to do with the timing of his reveal. It looked like panicky scum showing up to the thread and not having a good picture of the state of play and thinking they needed to claim.

[Foxcastle]

Lynch Chaqa, Percy, and Worcej. That's my scumcore, with Dargo as the most likely fourth.

The last is either Damo or Flash. (Outside chance it's Espresso.) I'm going back and forth on which one, though.

But for post-game glory, here's my call: Chaqa, Percy, Worcej, Dargo, Damo.

Xorxes is an interesting question. I think he's town, but I'm really worried he's not and he's managing to get away with the most blatant, outright, straightforward defense of the scum team we've ever seen.

Bozo, BoSox, and Jamiet are my towncore, along with Foodcoats.

If I'm NK'd, Worcej will probably say it's to put suspicion on him. Dismiss this as inherently false: the suspicion has always been there. Click your heels three times and repeat "town must lynch Worcej" and you'll make it home.

[TrPrado]

PHASE HAS ENDED PLEASE HOLD

[TrPrado]

The town woke up to another smog-ridden day as they've grown accustomed to over the past century. Everyone's coughing fits had grown to be a bit more regular, so now every day they had to seek some sort of relief, even if only temporarily. When they went to the clinic, though, what they saw only made the coughing worse. A pile of rotting corpses. Another species extinct.

DAMO666 has died, they were the RING-TAILED LEMUR, the DOCTOR

Day 4 has begun, you may now post.