Mafia 47 - The Sixth Mass Extinction - GAME THREAD [HIDDEN]

[xorxes]

If it was worcej and Espresso instead of bo_sox and Jamiet it would look beautiful:

Vote Count Day 3

Vaporwave (7) flash worcej dargo bozo bo_sox Espresso Jamiet
worcej (3) damo ItsHosuke Foxcastle
bozo (2) Chaqa Percy
dargo (2) xorxes Tom
flash (1) Vaporwave
Espresso (1) foodcoats

but real life is never that perfect.

[Jamiet99uk]

xorxes: Jamie, flash, EspressoPatronum, dargorygel, bo_sox
damo: dargorygel, flash, EspressoPatronum, bo_sox, worcej
Chaqa: bozo, bo_sox, dargorygel, Percy, flash/Vapor

This likely clears flash, EspressoPatronum, dargorygel, and bo_sox.

Explain?

[Jamiet99uk]

Okay, I’m getting tired of Bozo, bo, and Dargo getting off the hook. We NEED to lynch one of them tomorrow.

I’m pretty sure I’ll be collateral damage tonight, so I’m going to try to leave the town with some good reasoning to vote for those three scum.

You barely participated the whole day.

You have no right to make self righteous complaints like this.

This is a very scummy post.

[foodcoats]

@xorxes

I think I understand the argument now.

Vapor claims they crumbed tracker and were roleblocked. You had written in another post that it was least likely that Vapor was actually the tracker in this scenario, which made no sense to me. Vapor DID crumb and scum could've decided to block him or her.

Is your point that town!tracker!Vapor should never REVEAL they were roleblocked, because it confirms the RB had impact? And the tracker doing this makes it more likely they will be NK'd/blocked again? And you think town!Vapor knows this but scum!Vapor might make a gambit of it to fake clear?

Not sure if I should take this as a townslip or not, but just in case it is real, you should know that on this site the roleblocked person finds out that they were roleblocked whether they had any actual powers or not. Since Mafia already know who they roleblocked, revealing that they were roleblocked is always almost mandatory, because you don't want to hide that information from town, and you are not telling Mafia anything they don't already know.

I don't remember if it was you or someone else that wondered about Jamie's claiming not roleblocked. That doesn't mean anything: Mafia already knew they didn't roleblock Jamie, and it doesn't help town much since really the only one that needs to claim is the one who was roleblocked, not everybody else that wasn't. Jamie was not implying that he had a power that he was able to use.

Now I'm even more confused. If claiming you were roleblocked is par for the course, what was the case against Vapor???

[Jamiet99uk]

And just to see how ot would look like if I'm right about the scumteam.

You're wrong about me, I can say that for sure.

I'd bet you if I could.

[Chaqa]

Okay, I’m getting tired of Bozo, bo, and Dargo getting off the hook. We NEED to lynch one of them tomorrow.

I’m pretty sure I’ll be collateral damage tonight, so I’m going to try to leave the town with some good reasoning to vote for those three scum.

You barely participated the whole day.

You have no right to make self righteous complaints like this.

This is a very scummy post.

I've not participated a ton because I've been very busy and I said pretty much my two cents on the situation last night. With Vapor's flip, I have a little more to work with, but I am almost certain Bozo, Bo, and Dargo are all scum, with Percy as my tentative fourth scum.

[xorxes]

Now I'm even more confused. If claiming you were roleblocked is par for the course, what was the case against Vapor???

That it made no sense for Mafia to roleblock him, so it seemed very plausible that the roleblock claim was false. I thought you thanked bozo when he directed you to my post explaining the case.

[xorxes]

And just to see how ot would look like if I'm right about the scumteam.

You're wrong about me, I can say that for sure.

I'd bet you if I could.

It's possible. It would be quite remarkable if I was right about all five.

[damo666]

And just to see how ot would look like if I'm right about the scumteam.

You're wrong about me, I can say that for sure.

I'd bet you if I could.

It's possible. It would be quite remarkable if I was right about all five.

4/5 ain't bad

[Chaqa]

This would be a lot easier if we had even one scum flip. At least we have three town confirms and a few somewhat-clears to work with. I'm going to do a little bit of analysis quick on who the confirmed town, including the dead ones, have voted for up to this point. I think this will give us a decent idea of pure-town viewpoints that can lead us to catching scum. I'll be using the term "Serious" votes for votes that lasted any significant amount of time or were final votes. This is purely arbitrary and obviously isn't factoring context in, but that comes after I do my initial vote analysis (and probably later on in ISO or cases).

Tom Brainbombadil:
BB spent a lot of day 1 voting for Espresso, with some time on Bozo as well. He had brief votes early on against worcej, myself, and scattered votes on Vapor, Hosuke, EMC, and Vecna.

On Day 2, he came out strong voting Percy, then Jamiet, then Percy again. Then bo and xorxes. He eventually wound up on Hosuke and then Dargo.

Day 3, he was voting for damos, Vapor, then worcej. He voted xorxes shortly before Tom took over, and Tom then voted for Vapor and Dargo.

"Serious" votes: Espresso, Bozo, Percy, Jamiet, Dargo

Rivera:
Day 1: Rivera voted for Moscow for most of the day before shooting him, after which he moves his vote intermittently between Percy and Bozo. He only voted for me on Day 2.

"Serious" votes: Percy, Bozo, Chaqa

Fox:
Fox spent all of Day 1 on EMC. On Day 2, he voted for Percy, damos, Jamiet, xorxes, and finally EMC again. On Day 3 he voted for Vapor, worcej, and briefly, Percy.

"Serious" votes: Percy, worcej, xorxes, damos

Hosuke:
Hosuke spent all of Day 1 voting for no-lynch or Moscow. He spent the vast majority of Day 2 voting for Damos. On Day 3, he was voting for Bozo, Espresso, and Worcej (notably, he was voting with his Mason ally Fox against worcej here).

"Serious" votes: Damos, Worcej, Espresso, Bozo

Vecna:
Vecna voted for Chaqa, damos, Percy, and finally EMC. Not a lot for him since he was only around for one day.

"Serious" votes: Chaqa, damos, Percy

EMC:
EMC spent a lot of day 1 voting for himself before moving to Bozo. On Day 2, he did not vote for most of the phase, but again voted Bozo.

"Serious" votes: Bozo

Vapor:
He spent day 1 mixed between quick votes, brainbomb, and Dargo. Day 2, between EMC and myself. Day 3, Vapor voted for flash, bozo, and worcej.

"Serious" votes: Dargo, Chaqa, Flash, Bozo, Worcej

Tally:
Bozo (4): Tom, Rivera, Hosuke, Vapor

Chaqa (3): Rivera, Vecna, Vapor
Damos (3): Fox, Hosuke, Vecna
Dargo (3): Tom, Hosuke, Vapor
Percy (3): Tom, Rivera, Fox, Vecna
Worcej (3): Fox, Hosuke, Vapor

Espresso (2): Tom, Hosuke

Flash (1): Vapor
Jamiet (1): Tom
Xorxes (1): Fox

I've included myself and excluded any dead or confirmed town voters from the "Serious" votes and tallies. To me, this seems like a relatively objective starting point for future analysis. I know sheeping town clears isn't always the best strategy, but including dead town in analysis is something I think is often undervalued, as their viewpoints are guaranteed town views.

Based on this, I will slightly decrease Bo on my scum list, and slightly increase Percy. Bozo remains my #1 scum read. Damos and Worcej are on the radar, though I still read worcej as town, and I've still got a gut feeling Dargo is scum. All things considered, my new guess is something like this:

- Bozo
- Dargo
- Percy
- Bo
- Damos/Espresso/Flash (this last spot I'm pretty unsure about).

I will attempt to do more detailed cases/ISOs on Bozo, Dargo, Bo, and Percy, but I think I'll focus on Bozo first since I've been putting it off due to how much he posts.

[xorxes]

Updating again, I had left two Vapors in black:

Vote Count Day 1

emc (6) Foxcastle Espresso xorxes foodcoats bo_sox bozo Vecna
bozo (6) worcej emc damo Percy rdrivera Chaqa
Percy (1) dargo
brainbomb (1) flash
Moscow (1) ItsHosuke
dargo (1) Vaporwave
damo (1) Jamiet
Espresso (2) brainbomb

Vote Count Day 2

emc (6) Fox Jamiet Espresso flash xorxes Chaqa
Chaqa (5) bozo rdrivera Vaporwave foodcoats bo_sox
bozo (3) Percy emc damo
Percy (1) dargo
damo (1) ItsHosuke
ItsHosuke (1) worcej
dargo (1) brainbomb

Vote Count Day 3

Vaporwave (7) flash worcej dargo bozo bo_sox Espresso Jamiet
worcej (3) damo ItsHosuke Foxcastle
bozo (2) Chaqa Percy
dargo (2) xorxes Tom
flash (1) Vaporwave
Espresso (1) foodcoats
[/quote]

[Tom Bombadil]

I think it is interesting and somewhat disheartening that we had three town clears and none of them were on the wagon that ended up getting lynched. Part of that is our fault but truthfully it’s going to be hard for me to drive wagons late with the timing of the phase shift.

Let’s analyze to see who I would have expected to sheep a town clear but instead voted Vapor - that would be likely scum

[xorxes]

Let’s analyze to see who I would have expected to sheep a town clear but instead voted Vapor - that would be likely scum

I think worcej, bozo, bo_sox and Jamiet would always do their own thing.

The rest are flash, dargo and Espresso.

The most likely of those to be expected to sheep is dargo, I think. flash is too new for me to tell.

[Percy Williams]

I thought Vapor was going down without claiming a role because he was being bussed, but Vapor flipping town demonstrates why we should be highly suspicious of Percy, Chaqa, and damo for their claims.

Pleas explain. How does Vapor flipping town demonstrate that?

I don't really understand why Vapor didn't claim. If he had claimed and we had believed him, we might have lynched scum instead. He probably thought we wouldn't believe him, but there was no harm in trying. Why do you think town should not claim when under threat?

Vapor had a good reason to claim, the others did not. Vapor's lack of a claim simply serves as contrast to the other bad claims.

I'm sorry, but I fail to see how you can point to something that had a bad result (us mislynching a townie) and say "YES! That is what we should all do! Don't claim if you're about to be lynched because that means you're scum. Let yourself die if you're Town. Like Vapour did."

[worcej]

I expect to die tonight. The way bozo is talking lynch him tomorrow. Pretty sure darg and flash scum.

In Budapest worcej, time for game limited.

That’s cool actually. I am just in Texas...

[Tom Bombadil]

Let’s analyze to see who I would have expected to sheep a town clear but instead voted Vapor - that would be likely scum

I think worcej, bozo, bo_sox and Jamiet would always do their own thing.

The rest are flash, dargo and Espresso.

The most likely of those to be expected to sheep is dargo, I think. flash is too new for me to tell.

I agree with your reasoning here. Going to look at those three more closely

[EspressoPatronum]

I was pretty behind before the flip, so I've done a quick skim to catch up.

Some things that stood out:
- I think scum pushed the Tracker!Vapor agenda. bozo mentioned that it looks like scum set Vapor up with the RB with the idea of him getting lynched... I agree with his. I'm assuming scum must have the tracker claim + knew Vapor either (a) didn't really claim Tracker + pushed the story that he did, or (b) wanted to kill Vapor to "regain" the tracker claim in their possible. With that in mind, I'm highly sus of anyone who was pushing the message that Vapor was tracker. I think that's damo, flash, and maybe a few others.
- side note. I was planning on waiting until night to push the rest of the tracker smokescreen. I don't think there's a need for it any more considering the above information.

- This looks like town xorxes. If it's scum xorxes, consider me fooled and give him a medal for switching up his scum game so much.

- Jamie/food - As strange as this sounds, I was aware of all the roles but never took a second to add them all up. So I read about the diseased cow, knew about the human/ant combo, knew about PT and RBer, and saw that they might have a goon, but I never paused and added them all up to 7. Fwiw, I also couldn't tell you how many town roles we started with either. I was more focused on the abilities over their distribution.

- Why does Chaqa think he'll be collateral tonight? In what world do scum NK him over our masons or conftown!Tom?

- I saw a few mentions of Percy by one or two people. Why lynch him now? We might as well wait until tomorrow when his power activates.

- worcej says he's okay being a wagon but vehemently attacks anyone scumreading him. His interaction with Foxcastle give off a survalist feel, which doesn't align with his proclamation of being okay as a wagon.

[EspressoPatronum]

Add Damo to the point on Chaqa above. Why do either of them think they're going to die tonight??

[xorxes]

Add Damo to the point on Chaqa above. Why do either of them think they're going to die tonight??

If you are scum and you guys haven't figured that out, it's better we don't tell you. I think you're town though, so I will tell you tomorrow if I'm here which I assume I will probably be.

[EspressoPatronum]

Add Damo to the point on Chaqa above. Why do either of them think they're going to die tonight??

If you are scum and you guys haven't figured that out, it's better we don't tell you. I think you're town though, so I will tell you tomorrow if I'm here which I assume I will probably be.

Tbf, it was more of a rhetorical question, but consider me interested nonetheless. I look forward to your answer tomorrow.