Mafia 47 - The Sixth Mass Extinction - GAME THREAD [HIDDEN]

[EspressoPatronum]

DP Smokescreen. Update the list accordingly.

EspressoPatronum (complete)
Vapor
foodcoats
flash
bo_sox
Jamie
worcej
dargorygel
damo
Chaqa

[EspressoPatronum]

Note - I took the above list from Bozo's most recent reads list and removed clears and ppl who have claimed.

[EspressoPatronum]

DP Smokescreen. Update the list accordingly.

EspressoPatronum (complete)
Vapor
foodcoats
flash
bo_sox
Jamie
worcej
dargorygel
damo

*Edited. Forgot about Chaqa's lover claim

[EspressoPatronum]

I'm heading to bed and won't have any time to catch up and answer any questions until D3 starts. With that in mind, I urge you to participate in the smokescreen even if one or both of these apply:
1. You disagree with it's efficacy; or
2. Anyone (*cough* xorxes) says it's a bad idea for [stated BS reason].

Happy to go into it further tomorrow.

[EspressoPatronum]

I'm heading to bed and won't have any time to catch up and answer any questions until D3 starts. With that in mind, I urge you to participate in the smokescreen even if one or both of these apply:
1. You disagree with it's efficacy; or
2. Anyone (*cough* xorxes) says it's a bad idea for [stated BS reason].

Happy to go into it further tomorrow.

Its* efficacy.

I blame autocorrect.

[brainbomb]

How is it possible Fox posted that much at start of day, and hosuke shows up but needs a TLDR of the game. did fox just leave zero notes in mason chat about gamestate?

Can you summarize your early mason chat discussions

I'll preface this by saying that I don't mind answering your questions, but (assuming ItsHosuke does his part) we'll be cleared on Day 3.

The chat went like this:

• I showed up at game start and suggested we not reveal names.
• In the dead of night, while I sleep, ItsHosuke says "bump".
• The next morning, I say (in response to his claim) that I hope he's not ItsHosuke. (No response.)
• That evening I say we need to make a plan because Brain will try to lynch him, and ask when he'll be around to play
• In the dead of night, while I sleep, ItsHosuke admits to being ItsHosuke.
• Shortly before EOD1, I post the sequence of numbers.
• During Night 1, I post some other stuff, further instructions, strategy tips. (I still have not revealed my name.)
• 2+ hours into Day 2, ItsHosuke shows up and says he forgot about the thread.

There's more after, obviously. But nothing of consequence now that we are where we are.

how does fox not know llama is in the game if he is kiwi??

I assume you're asking about my question "Was that in the signup thread?" to Vapor. I did know that the llama was a discrepancy, and had alerted the GMs, but I had missed where they specifically put it in the errata and thought I might have missed it in the signup thread where they had posted some other clarifications. This was not a question about the llama, this was a question about where the GMs had posted the information.

hard to dispute. very little content to consider.

why do you suppose hosuke formats Jamie differently N1?

ItsHosuke
Night-1 14:03
page 70 / orig
↑Jamiet99uk: "​@ItsHosuke: Has your fellow Mason spoken to you yet?

Please don't tell us who you think it is, just answer the above qu..."
​@Jamiet99uk: YES, he has. Although our conversations aren't as long as we would like them to be due to timezones.

ItsHosuke
Night-1 14:01
page 70 / orig
↑EspressoPatronum: "Fair point on the callout. I work 9-5 EST, so I'll miss every EOD that lands on a weekday.

Tonight was particularly bu..."

Hmm, although I have done some research, I'm still pretty new, and am a follower IRL, so I don't really have any opinions of my own. Also, @brainbomb there's no 't' between 'o' and 's'

Maybe I wanted to be adorned in lovely colors too.

[brainbomb]

Page 75 : g=47&part=Night%201&user=ItsHosuke
ItsHosuke
Night-1 04:41
page 75 / orig

bump

Jamiet99uk
Night-1 04:06
page 76 / orig
↑ItsHosuke: "Bump"

What the fuck is the point of this?

The thread was very active. It did not need to be bumped. Please actually contribute, huh?

Jamiet99uk
Night-1 04:01
page 76 / orig ItsHosuke just went way up my scum scale there.

Jamiet99uk
Night-1 03:59
page 76 / orig Scum pool:

ItsHosuke
Foodcoats
Emc
Xorxes
​ Vecna
Chaqa
Damo
Flash

ItsHosuke—I’m not worried about his claim and think it could be legit, and I think that the two-way dynamic (either two town masons or two scum faking it) will clarify the situation eventually (unlike other claims)

Jamiet should probably be in my townier list behind Bozo and Xorxes. Although, in the past I have totally missed scum-Jamiet

●Jamie reaction looks staged. it comes at night when maf chat is open.
●hosuke bumps


DAY 2

ItsHosuke
Day-2 42:28
page 89 / orig @All

Those who want me to reveal my mason teammate... he said that in the chain of numbers 381751353620 six will reveal who he is, he kinda wants to lay low or something

Oh and yeah ##vote Percy

ItsHosuke
Day-2 21:07
page 99 / orig
↑Foxcastle: "Jamiet. The real answer to this question is Jamiet."
Ouch

ItsHosuke
Day-2 28:18
page 93 / orig
↑Jamiet99uk: "@ItsHosuke - why did you bump the thread yesterday? What was the point of that?"
Simply trying to remind myself of this thread, but that... didn’t work out too well...

Jamiet99uk
Day-2 31:14
page 91 / orig Oh I've realised who the other mason is.

Jamiet99uk
Day-2 30:41
page 91 / orig Here's where I am with my reads:

TOWN (strongest reads at the top)

Jamiet99uk
brainbomb (mechanically clear)
rdrivera2005
bozotheclown
ItsHosuke
F​oxcastle
damo666
Percy Williams
worcej


NULL

bo_sox48
​ EspressoPatronum
Vaporwave
e.m.c^42

SCUM (in no particular order)

Chaqa
dargorygel
flash2015
foodc​oats
xorxes

Jamie couldnt catch radiation poisoning at the Chernobyl meltdown
now hes cracked the code and deciphered that fox is mason with hosuke?

[brainbomb]

Fox and Hosuke are not clears.
they arent even town.

Jamie, Fox, and Hosuke outted themselves as scum in their ruse N1. they hatched this plan and put it together if hosuke got under duress

[Chaqa]

Brain, are you really thinking they aren't Masons? I admit I've not been convinced 100% yet but if they are they can easily and definitively prove it tomorrow. Don't you think we can figure this whole thing out better if we work from the assumption they are what they say they are? For reference, the remaining players:

Bozo
Bo_sox
Brain
Chaqa
Damo
Dargo
E.P.
Flash
Food
Fox
Hosuke
Jamiet
Percy
RIvera
Vapor
Worcej
Xorxes

If we remove Brain and Rivera (conf. town), myself, Fox/Hosuke (masons), then we're down to:

Bozo
Bo_sox
Damo
Dargo
E.P.
Flash
Food
Jamiet
Percy
Vapor
Worcej
Xorxes

This is a group of 12 people with five scum in it. That's almost 50% odds. With some basic vote analysis, we can narrow it down further. Here's what I'm thinking, working backward from Day 2:

1. We know (well, I know, and others should believe/understand) that Day 2 was town vs. town. This seems somewhat clear by how disinterested many were at EoD. If a scum was up for lynch, there would have been a little more chaos, but things just kinda... sputtered. This WAS NOT the case on Day 1. So let's go back.

2. On Day 1, we had EMC vs. Bozo. Knowing now that EMC was/is town, and given Bozo's play in general, I am going to work from another assumption here, which has been a gut feeling of mine all game and has some support I'll discuss in a bit: Bozo is scum.

Reasoning:
1. The mass-claim idea was TERRIBLE. Anyone who comprehended this setup would see why all it would do is inform scum of exactly who their ideal night-kill targets would be. We already lost the Jailer in Vecna, if bozo's idea had taken off, we would probably continue on losing our Doctor, Role Cop, and any other valuable roles we may have this game.
2. His "Give me a top 5" matrix thing. He is so ADAMANT about collecting all sorts of information about who scum reads who and compiling it. To me, when I'm a scum player, I like these kinds of info dumps to make objective/optimized decisions, and I believe bozo is doing the same - he wants this information so that mafia can target those most likely to bring them down.

NOTE: I had a bit of a play-by-play of the Bozo/EMC wagons typed out and about halfway done, but as I was typing it, I realized I had a brainfart on how these wagons developed. EMC's wagon wasn't the counter to the bozo wagon - the Bozo wagon was the counter to the EMC wagon. To me, this would imply that while Bozo is still likely scum, the scum were most likely either:

1. Already on EMC
or
2. On third-party wagons

So, who fits that bill?

1. Bo_sox - he came to the EMC wagon to shift it from 4-3-3 EMC-Percy-Bozo to 5-3-3, making a clear leading wagon out of EMC and diverting off the other two. This would imply that: (see below theory)

Theory 1: If Bo_sox is scum, then Percy and/or Bozo likely are, and the other way around as well.

2. Players with "wasted" (non EMC/non Bozo votes, excluding the "clears")
- Dargo
- Flash
- Vapor
- Jamiet

So, I will center the Day 2 analysis around the following players:
Bozo, Bo_Sox, Dargo, Flash, Vapor, Jamiet, Percy

As I believe we will find no less than 4 scum in this group.

Day 2, we know BOTH main wagons were town. In these cases, scum are likely to be sitting with sedentary votes, somewhat often on third-party wagons. Let's examine our rogues gallery:

Bozo - Spends all day voting Percy until he switches over to start the Chaqa wagon. Read: "bussing" a teammate to gain town cred and then voting for me.

Bo_sux - Votes foodcoats all day until a very late vote on me.

Dargo - Percy voting all day. Low-key bussing like Bozo? I suspect the mafia had overnight decided Percy needs be a sacrificial lamb due to his claim and subsequent misunderstanding of his own supposed role.

Flash - Percy voter, then Chaqa, then EMC. I haven't read much on Flash yet. We'll have to circle back on him, but note that he ended Day 1 voting for... brainbomb.

Vapor - EMC, then Chaqa. Stuck with my wagon.

Jamiet - Xorxes voting most of the day, then Chaqa, then EMC. Honestly, I don't know if I read him as scum this game, but I have a hard time reading players like Jamiet or brain. He seems just himself so maybe I'm discounting him here.

Percy - Voted... bozo? all day. Weird.

It may be a bit early to do a big vote analysis, and it's late and my thoughts are all over the place, but this little analysis leads me to a preliminary scumteam of (in order of certainty):

1. Bozo
2. Bo_sox
3. Dargo
4. Percy
5. Flash/Vapor (this last one i'm unsure of, so I'll put them here for now)

Overall, my reads:

Town - Confirmed Group
- Brain
- Rivera
- Fox
- Hosuke
- Chaqa

Town - Based on Reads/Analysis:
- Jamiet
- Xorxes
- Worcej

Null-ish/Fifth Scum group:
- Damo
- E.P.
- Flash
- Food
- Vapor

Scum
- Bozo
- Bo_Sox
- Dargo
- Percy

[ItsHosuke]

Fox and Hosuke are not clears.
they arent even town.

Jamie, Fox, and Hosuke outted themselves as scum in their ruse N1. they hatched this plan and put it together if hosuke got under duress

@brainbomb Man, really? Why are you so adamant on us being scum? Am I really too much of a newb?

[damo666]

Fox and Hosuke are not clears.
they arent even town.

Jamie, Fox, and Hosuke outted themselves as scum in their ruse N1. they hatched this plan and put it together if hosuke got under duress

@brainbomb Man, really? Why are you so adamant on us being scum? Am I really too much of a newb?

Don't worry ItsHosuke scum will NK brain tonight.
Me N3
Percy N4
rdr N5
Xorxes N6
Chaqa N7

If in the interim we lynch from remaining players we might have a chance. My suggested order is:
Darg
Flash
ESP
Bo
Bozo
Worcej
Vapor
Jamie
Food

Obviously if Percy survives beyond N4 lynch him.

[damo666]

@Chaqa you may be right about Percy but please don't vote for him before D5

[xorxes]

I hope you're still alive tomorrow Chaqa.

I have been townreading bozo all game in great part *because* of the massclaim idea. While it is a bad idea once you factor in all the things we lose, it is the type of thing that bozo does, and there are also some potential benefits. If the masons, the votestealer, the vig, the bulletproof or the inno child were part of the fakelist, they would have been in trouble, because they would not have been able to prove their provable role. As it turns out at least 5 of these 6 were town, so it would not have worked out so great. The bad part would be the sacrifice of the cop, the watcher, the tracker, the doc, the jailer, the commuter, (also maybe the absorber, the lover and the oracle can be added here). I think in the balance we lose more than we gain, but I did consider the idea myself and so I could understand where bozo was coming from and it didn't really surprise me that he kept pushing it in spite of everyone else but me being completely against it.

What bothers me most about bozo's current fixation on me though is that it is based on me outing the second mason as an "obviously" anti-town move. I was doing in a smaller scale what he had proposed doing in a much larger scale. If Hosuke was town, we pay the price of exposing the second mason earlier than we needed to. If Hosuke was scum, we caught him (and potentially two others directly connected with him). Unlike his full massclaim idea, this was low price/huge reward.

The only way my strategy was obviously bad is if you knew for sure that Hosuke was town. Fox knew that for sure, and so it's understandable that he would be annoyed with me. But why was bozo so sure that Hosuke was town that he was not interested in risking it? This is really bothering me because it depends on him having a very certain read of Hosuke that I don't know how anyone other than Fox could have had.

[damo666]

Another obvious observation:

If Xorxes survives to D7 and doesnt reveal then lynch him.

[damo666]

Suggestion:

If Chaqa survives to D7 he should reveal target of his affections. If not Nkd N7 lynch the target D8. If target is town lynch Chaqa D9.

I think this is right. Comments welcome.

[xorxes]

Don't worry ItsHosuke scum will NK brain tonight.
Me N3
Percy N4
rdr N5
Xorxes N6
Chaqa N7

Why would scum ever kill Chaqa?

[xorxes]

Another obvious observation:

If Xorxes survives to D7 and doesnt reveal then lynch him.

My only fear is if I was Divine Presenced, but I can live with the odds of that.

[xorxes]

Suggestion:

If Chaqa survives to D7 he should reveal target of his affections. If not Nkd N7 lynch the target D8. If target is town lynch Chaqa D9.

I think this is right. Comments welcome.

If he survives to D7 he is most likely scum, based on his claims.

[xorxes]

I'm heading to bed and won't have any time to catch up and answer any questions until D3 starts. With that in mind, I urge you to participate in the smokescreen even if one or both of these apply:
1. You disagree with it's efficacy; or
2. Anyone (*cough* xorxes) says it's a bad idea for [stated BS reason].

Happy to go into it further tomorrow.

I'm biting my tongue right now.

[damo666]

Suggestion:

If Chaqa survives to D7 he should reveal target of his affections. If not Nkd N7 lynch the target D8. If target is town lynch Chaqa D9.

I think this is right. Comments welcome.

This is nonsense. Sorry. Ignore it.