Mafia 47 - The Sixth Mass Extinction - GAME THREAD [HIDDEN]

[bo_sox48]

That post feels forced.

[xorxes]

Good post from worcej:

Comments:

1. We definitely share the thoughts on Fox - I think he is not really hunting anything heavily atm.

He is really looking bad. He was heavily townreading me and now he is voting me for some pretty odd reason.

[*]I am torn on xorxes - today he is being MUCH more towny than D1, so is it because Vecna is gone and now suddenly he decides to try?

I'm not sure what difference you're seeing, but two explanations might be that I had a lot of free time yesterday (Saturday) whereas on weekdays my Mafia time is much more limited, plus there was more info to analyse.

[*]I don't think Damo is doing much, but he is marching down some pretty townish thoughts.

Yeah, if he is scum he is faking it very well. I'm most interested in the people voting for him and their reasons.

[*]The middling town concept you're stating is how I feel, I just call them 'the group that doesn't try' - this is currently emc, Hosuke, flash, darg, and Chaqa from my perspective.

Indeed.

[*]I also concur with emc and I am beginning to regret pushing against lynching him now - with the no real effort at anything, I think he may be coasting along for ~reasons~.

Disagree. He claimed Tree stump and he would have been lynched if it wasn't for brainbomb's vote steal which he couldn't have known about, so he is not hiding any ~reasons~.

[*]I don't like bozo's play this game, but too many people seem to be calling him town. The mass-claim theory was rooted in a LOT of bad logic and would only truly benefit the scum based on this game's setup.

I think he is town. I agree massclaim was probably not the best idea (although it looks like we might not be getting any help from PRs at all this game so who knows), but I also considered it and I understand where he was coming from.

[*]Concur on Vapor, he can't keep his reads along a straight path - this to me is more a sign of scum than 'noob town'.

Vapor is really weird, I'll say that.

[*]I am also happy you town me but sad I didn't get an analysis from you either [/list]

I'm leaning town on you now even though I started scumreading you D1.

[Foxcastle]

<Shrug> I always look like "I'm not hunting" or whatever. It's been a mistake by town and used by scum against me. And yes, the early game after day 1 is the hardest time for me when I'm most lost and least sure of how to put things together. I'm mostly going on my gut.

[xorxes]

Holy shit, bo put a lot of effort into some posts! Man, I will need to re-read these as I wait for my plane in 7 hours :/

I read them.

I appreciate the effort but I got very little from those posts. It's all about Mafia theory, with very little connection to the actual game which he hasn't read in full.

[xorxes]

Yea.
##Vote ItsHosuke


The arguments that he is scum, combined with lack of any kiwi claim, combined with just a total wolfy pop in style of play...

I feel swayed that this slot needs to die.

I'm so happy brainbomb has regained his senses. Hope it lasts.

[Vaporwave]

what do you mean I can't keep reads? I fluctuate and it's not just my trait

I'm stable on a few towns plus this game has had a strong, cunning mafia team

if people like bomb, bozo and xorxes are unable to be certain, why do you expect from others who are less proficient in these games?

[xorxes]

paranoia should be healthy. xorxes lacks any concern about deepwolves and is hoping the game is just easy as opposed to a challenge.

Not quite. I know my time in the game is usually very short, and so I can't really focus on the deep threats when we haven't even rooted one obvious threat yet.

bo seems to gravitate to that the game is mostly inefficient scum and really seems totally unconcerned about anything the higher volume players are saying.

He is not reading the thread and he iso'ed the lowest posters because it's the easiest thing to do. I really can't tell if he is town or scum for doing that.

the dilemma here is that under 99% of all mafia games, bo and xorxes are actually the rational town trying to use classic, proven ideas to hunting. Hunt by numbers.

and mostly that strategy is simple. It involves scum letting town bicker and do as little as possible.

If true then itshosuke, dargorygel, both feel obvious.

If ItsHosuke is scum, we have hit a very productive vein. Fox and Jamiet fall right after him. If he is town, we need to look elsewhere. It should be easy to prove that he is town, which makes me think more and more that he is not.

I am quite torn on if this game is full of very poorly performing town and veteran confident scum

or if xorx, and bo are actually just the traditional town guards who aim low because scum wim is low

I can't really speak for bo. I think he is town and not dedicating much time to the game, or scum and being clever, but I can't sort him out right now so I focus on what I can sort out.

[xorxes]

if bo and xorx are town
and percy is too

then the only team that could make sense would be emc, chaqa, jamie, itshosuke, dargo

Why not Fox instead of emc?

Chaqa and dargo are possible, but what about flash, EP, even Vapor?

[xorxes]

I have updated my best guess at scum to replace bo_sox with worcej.

Here is what I have for players who have given their top 5 scum candidates:
bozo: Percy, Chaqa, dargorygel, flash, worcej
xorxes: Hosuke, Foxcastle, Jamie, flash, dargorygel
brainbomb: xorxes, Jamie, damo, bozo, emc
Jamie: Chaqa, dargorygel, flash, foodcoats, xorxes
damo: flash, bo_sox, dargorygel, worcej, Chaqa
Foxcastle: Percy, emc, damo, Vapor, Chaqa
Vapor: bo_sox, Chaqa, dargorygel, emc, Jamie
flash: Percy, bo_sox, xorxes, emc, worcej

Did I miss anyone? That is only 8 out of 18 so far. We know there are five scum out there, everyone should be able to come up with 5 guesses.

Fox is voting for me, so he needs to update his list.

[foodcoats]

the dilemma here is that under 99% of all mafia games, bo and xorxes are actually the rational town trying to use classic, proven ideas to hunting. Hunt by numbers.

brainbomb, what do you mean by "hunt by numbers?" bo and xorxes have seemed to have very different approaches so I don't see the comparison. And if there is some kind of highly effective scumhunting strategy that you all can impart to me as someone still relatively new to the game, that would be appreciated.

[xorxes]

The problem, Xorxes, is that all scum have claimable roles no matter what, with no consequence or risk of CC. I think you're playing this like it's a regular game where these things can be sorted out. But if all 5 scum have claimable roles, some of which don't come into effect until later in the game, it just takes us too long to process those claims. Deference to claims makes little sense here.

Some claims are more equal than others, and some can indeed be sorted out, like the masons and the innocent child. The fact that you are voting for the one claim that can be most easily sorted out with time is very telling. Yes, it's very convenient for me that I randed that role, blame the GMs.

[xorxes]

And yes, I beleive Hosuke and disbelieve Percy and am iffy on Damo. As far as Percy specifically, I have always found last-minute claims suspicious, and my default setting is that if I'm voting for someone whom I think is scum and they claim without evidence at the last minute, that's insufficient to move off them. (And I'm sometimes wrong about it, but more often right.)

I think it's perfectly fine to keep Percy and damo in your scumreads. That's no excuse to play irrationally though, not for you. I count you among the rational players.

[foodcoats]

Says the person voting for the claimed innocent child.

Who claimed innocent child?

Also, that's a Day 7+ power. You could not punch me in the dick hard enough to care about that claim. Presumably a scum!child gets immediately lynched on Day 7 when the GM does not confirm their role, but if they still have a partner at that point that's a huge victory for scum to make it to day 8.

[damo666]

Says the person voting for the claimed innocent child.

Who claimed innocent child?

Also, that's a Day 7+ power. You could not punch me in the dick hard enough to care about that claim. Presumably a scum!child gets immediately lynched on Day 7 when the GM does not confirm their role, but if they still have a partner at that point that's a huge victory for scum to make it to day 8.

You really don't know? You're talking to him.

[xorxes]

<Shrug> I always look like "I'm not hunting" or whatever. It's been a mistake by town and used by scum against me. And yes, the early game after day 1 is the hardest time for me when I'm most lost and least sure of how to put things together. I'm mostly going on my gut.

Who has accused you of "not hunting" this game? You seem to be doing a lot of hunting, which is one of the reasons I was townreading you.

My beef with you is about your choice of prey.

[foodcoats]

The problem, Xorxes, is that all scum have claimable roles no matter what, with no consequence or risk of CC. I think you're playing this like it's a regular game where these things can be sorted out. But if all 5 scum have claimable roles, some of which don't come into effect until later in the game, it just takes us too long to process those claims. Deference to claims makes little sense here.

I strongly agree with this. Overall I really think we should just be trying to lynch scummy players and largely ignoring claims unless they are truly proven. I will say though that I misinterpreted "role cop" as "Neapolitan," and now that I understand the actual role, mislynching Percy would be awful.

[brainbomb]

Yea.
##Vote ItsHosuke


The arguments that he is scum, combined with lack of any kiwi claim, combined with just a total wolfy pop in style of play...

I feel swayed that this slot needs to die.

I'm so happy brainbomb has regained his senses. Hope it lasts.

Lets just say if chaqa, emc, hosuke, jamie, vapor, darg, percy, are all town I dont think I have any faith left in humanitys ability to solve puzzles

[damo666]

I have updated my best guess at scum to replace bo_sox with worcej.

Here is what I have for players who have given their top 5 scum candidates:
bozo: Percy, Chaqa, dargorygel, flash, worcej
xorxes: Hosuke, Foxcastle, Jamie, flash, dargorygel
brainbomb: xorxes, Jamie, damo, bozo, emc
Jamie: Chaqa, dargorygel, flash, foodcoats, xorxes
damo: flash, bo_sox, dargorygel, worcej, Chaqa
Foxcastle: Percy, emc, damo, Vapor, Chaqa
Vapor: bo_sox, Chaqa, dargorygel, emc, Jamie
flash: Percy, bo_sox, xorxes, emc, worcej

Did I miss anyone? That is only 8 out of 18 so far. We know there are five scum out there, everyone should be able to come up with 5 guesses.

Fox is voting for me, so he needs to update his list.

This is a bit pointless until we get the masons sorted. I've got different sets of 5 dependent on the outcome.

[foodcoats]

Says the person voting for the claimed innocent child.

Who claimed innocent child?

Also, that's a Day 7+ power. You could not punch me in the dick hard enough to care about that claim. Presumably a scum!child gets immediately lynched on Day 7 when the GM does not confirm their role, but if they still have a partner at that point that's a huge victory for scum to make it to day 8.

You really don't know? You're talking to him.

xorxes? or you?

Because that... is a spicy meatball.

[damo666]

The problem, Xorxes, is that all scum have claimable roles no matter what, with no consequence or risk of CC. I think you're playing this like it's a regular game where these things can be sorted out. But if all 5 scum have claimable roles, some of which don't come into effect until later in the game, it just takes us too long to process those claims. Deference to claims makes little sense here.

I strongly agree with this. Overall I really think we should just be trying to lynch scummy players and largely ignoring claims unless they are truly proven. I will say though that I misinterpreted "role cop" as "Neapolitan," and now that I understand the actual role, mislynching Percy would be awful.

If you lynch someone with a later verifiable claim and they flip town you give away a free NK. If they are scum you'll get them when they fail to verify.