Mafia 46 - Ace Attorney - GAME THREAD

[Durga]

I am not BA or scum, but I was roleblocked last night.

So what's your explanation of why there was only one NK?

Could be a lot of things. BA and Mafia could have both hit Chippie. Mafia could have held the NK. BA could have held the kill and scouted.

It's pretty imperative that we don't mislynch today. I don't see how we win this if we mislynch. It's GG basically. But, all I know is my role and I am a VT.

I don't understand why scum would withhold a NK in order to get a mislynch. That makes 0 sense.

[Durga]

scum rb town!ND and kill BA
BA kills ChippeRock (?)

##unvote

I'm very sure FoxCastle is scum - Fox, can you tell us who you killed last night and we can eliminate a common enemy?

[Durga]

So what's your explanation of why there was only one NK?

Could be a lot of things. BA and Mafia could have both hit Chippie. Mafia could have held the NK. BA could have held the kill and scouted.

It's pretty imperative that we don't mislynch today. I don't see how we win this if we mislynch. It's GG basically. But, all I know is my role and I am a VT.

I don't understand why scum would withhold a NK in order to get a mislynch. That makes 0 sense.

Wait a second. Why didn't you suggest that Mafia hit BA

[ND]

I said it could be a lot of things.

[Durga]

I said it could be a lot of things.

What do you think it was? What seems most likely to you?

[Jamiet99uk]

VOTE COUNT 6.2

ND (2) - Squigs44, Foxcastle
Foxcastle (2) - ND, FlaviusAetius

Unvoted: Durga

Currently Nobody is set to be lynched.

Lots of hours remain. Seriously, loads of 'em. Like nearly two days of real time.

[Durga]

Fox - instead of lurking and +1ing Jamiet can you respond to me

[et]

RIP Chippe. You finally proved to be VT!
And I saw ND claiming RB.
I am going to think possibility of
1.Mafia or BA hold NK(most likely BA) .
2.Mafia tried to NK BA and BA NK Chippe
3.Mafia roleblocked BA and NK Chippe.

I think BA didn't have to NK Chippe.
If Chippe and Durga NK'd, BA candidate is Fox, Flav, ND, me.
If Mafia roleblocked one of them, 3 remaining.
BA likely to be lynched.
So, I think Mafia killed Chippe for now.

I will going to think well.

[ND]

I said it could be a lot of things.

What do you think it was? What seems most likely to you?

What seems the most likely? With one kill? Given I know I am a VT?
a) Mafia hits Chippie and BA scouts
b) BA and Mafia both hit Chippie
c) BA hits Chippie and Mafia hits BA
d) Mafia hold's their nk and BA hits Chippie

I put it in order of what I think is most to least likely

[Durga]

I said it could be a lot of things.

What do you think it was? What seems most likely to you?

What seems the most likely? With one kill? Given I know I am a VT?
a) Mafia hits Chippie and BA scouts
b) BA and Mafia both hit Chippie
c) BA hits Chippie and Mafia hits BA
d) Mafia hold's their nk and BA hits Chippie

I put it in order of what I think is most to least likely

Can you explain the rationale for the BA scouting?

[Foxcastle]

Fox - instead of lurking and +1ing Jamiet can you respond to me

No, I’m cooking dinner.

[et]

In that case, BA tried to find Mafia?
But I am not sure why BA do so for now.
If Durga was NK'd by Mafia and BA scout, 8 person remaining
5-2-1.
ND is likely to be lynched in that case.
1.ND is BA
In this case, no mean to scout. But possibility of WIFOM is remain.
2.ND is mafia or town
In this case, BA might tried to find Mafia.
I will think this case well afterward.

[et]

And I wasn't roleblocked last night.
ND is just 1 person claiming roleblocked?

[Squigs44]

If we kill the BA, it's 5-2. NK to 4-2, and we're at LyLo.

If we don't kill the BA: best case for town is lynch scum to 4-1-1. Presume we lose 2 townies over night, making it 2-1-1, at which point we must lynch the BA, but the NK means scum win.

Someone should check this math, but I think we have to lynch the BA to win at this point.

Your math is wrong. If we lynch mafia it is 5-1-1, and two townie deaths means 3-1-1. At that point we have to lynch scum back to back days, but it doesn't really matter which scum we lynch which day. This is about the same situation as lynching the BA, since we still have to lynch mafia back to back days after that.

However, if we lynch mafia and BA hits the last mafia for us, that puts us in a much better position. If BA holds, or mafia hits BA or some combination where only 1 town dies, we still have to lynch mafia and BA back to back days.

If we mislynch though, we will need the BA to hit mafia for us or else we have pretty much* lost.
*Still a very small chance of us pulling it out

Tl;dr - it doesn't matter which scum we lynch, as long as it isn't town, but lynching mafia is slightly preferential to BA.

[Squigs44]

I don't like Fox messing up math in order to show we have to lynch BA followed up by trying to convince people that these NK's make sense if I am BA. This is just desperate Fox.

[Squigs44]

##vote Foxcastle

Should have followed Flav's blabbering and done this D4

[Squigs44]

Oh wait... BA wins if he makes it to final 3, so it does matter which order we lynch him in. We have to hit BA either today or tomorrow. Fox's math was still wrong, but mine was too...

[Foxcastle]

##vote ND.

I think he is likely to be either BA or mafia because he claimed rb. Let's work under the assumption the BA didn't hold his shot (because, why would he?). Here are the possible outcomes:

1. Mafia rb ND and use their night kill on Chippe - there's only one kill so ND is BA
2. Mafia hold their rb and hits BA. BA kills Chippe.
3. Mafia rb ND and both Mafia and BA hit Chippe.

#3 is absolutely ridiculous and is the only scenario in which ND is town. Otherwise he's BA or a mafia who's fake claiming.

Unless they've totally lost it and withheld their NK

You want to know if/what I think you missed in this?

Well, I agree that neither Mafia nor BA held their kill. A mafia decision to hold the kill makes no sense. And I don't see it making sense for BA either (as I pointed out just before EON): he would have been even closer to his win by killing either scum or town.

Mafia hit BA, BA hits Chippe. RB held. == ND is scum claiming RB for towncred. I don't believe town-ND would fakeclaim.

Mafia hit BA, BA hits Chippe. ND actually RB'd. == ND could be town. But I find it extremely unlikely that both the serial killer and mafia would hit ND. I think it's likely the mafia kill rather than the BA, on the off chance that Chippe was the BA, and if he wasn't, he was so far down the scum list after ND and me that he was more townread than not.

Mafia hit Chippe, BA hits Chippe. RB held. == ND is scum claiming RB for towncred. I don't believe town-ND would fakeclaim. See above for why these are unlikely choices for BA/mafia.

Mafia hit Chippe, BA hits Chippe. ND actually RB'd == In this scenario, ND is likely town. But again, see above for why dual Chippe hits are unlikely.

Mafia hit Chippe, BA is RB'd. == ND claims for towncred, but is actually BA.

My theory is that Squigs is BA. He's been pretty confident this game, which comes from good play and good solving, but also possibly from the knowledge that he's safe from NK. He wants to eliminate scum, but not so quickly that town actually wins and can turn attention to finding him; but also, he does want scum lynched, because if 2 scum get control of the game that threatens him. If he thinks ND is actually scum, he wants ND lynched. So he gets ride of Chippe because he would have been a likely Foxcastle vote.

The scum team, on the other hand, want to get rid of clears. But go back and look at Squigs, he's much more reserved on whether ND or I is scum, much more analytical. Probably not a good choice to rely on for a mislynch whether he's either BA or town. Durga, on the other hand, is hard hard scumreading both me and ND, but also has some personal blindspots on when it comes to ND, so maybe he's hoping she can be swayed to not vote ND "just because she's pissed at him" or whatever. And besides, if they kill Durga, her record could be used against ND just as likely as against me, and moreso, is subject to the "they were trying to kill and ND vote, so ND must be scum" narrative. Anyway, point is, Squigs is a better kill for the mafia team than Durga.

[Foxcastle]

##vote Foxcastle

Should have followed Flav's blabbering and done this D4

I used to agree with this, but it was out of greed for those 100 coin Flavius will owe me when I flip.

[Foxcastle]

Oh wait... BA wins if he makes it to final 3, so it does matter which order we lynch him in. We have to hit BA either today or tomorrow. Fox's math was still wrong, but mine was too...

Yeah, see, it's not so straightforward is it.