Mafia 46 - Ace Attorney - GAME THREAD

[teacon7]

The BA wasn't rb'd at all. The kill on Balki went through.

Connor or damo might be scum, but neither are BA.

Not necessarily, because only one of them was actually roleblocked. (Unless scum team are wifom masters, and didn't role block, but that's very unlikely) so the other claimant could be a BA trying to fakeclaim to appear Vanilla Town. It could also be a scum trying the same thing.

I think squiggs is right here... no matter what the alignment of the person faking a claim, their fake was a mistake.

Speculative.If{
I suppose the BA could fake a claim in order to appear more like town than anything else. Their intent would be to look less like the BA. The problem is that mafia knows who they rb'd, who they didn't rb, and who is actually town. Maf don't have to worry about whether it's maf/BA fakeclaiming - they KNOW. 3rd party psych seems like it'd be a lot less bold than taking risks like this. From what I've seen of their play so far, I don't see either damo or connor playing that risky.
};

It's more likely that it's MvM fakeclaiming to "clear" the other person. durga was talking about an rb claim "clearing" someone earlier. tbh though that also seems like such a bad idea for scum that it's not really plausible. mafia needs to use their rb to find/stop the BA, so why hold it for the sake of a risky play to sacrifice one and clear someone else? doesn't make sense.

[Jamiet99uk]

Vote Count 4.2

Foxcastle (7) - Durga, Squigs44, FlaviusAetius, ChippeRock, ND, teacon7, Nephthys
teacon7 (4) - peterlund, Foxcastle, et, damo666

FOXCASTLE is set to be lynched as it stands.

A little under 23 hours of Day Four are left.

Connor and Percy have not yet voted.

[teacon7]

I think teacon is townier from the exchange, but they are both playing pretty recklessly, and I can only see mafia playing that way if they are paired with another mafia.

hmmmm. what do you mean recklessly? i feel like if it was scum/scum they'd try and set up one person to look REALLY good when this was over, right?

Wait.
Wait wait wait.
Durga.

Are you saying that:
When scum knows they're going to die
...they try to set up clears and mislynches for their team the next day?

Because that's the premise of my entire argument about Balki/Durga D3. Balki at the very least did this.

[Percy Williams]

I'm voting
##VOTE FOXCASTLE
Because I have a pretty solid Townread on Teacon, and no such feelings on Fox.
But I completely Town read Balki, sooo...

[FlaviusAetius]

I'm *so* good as scum that rdr had a 99.98 percent town read on me >:)

rdrivera isnt GOD, JUST because he said it means NOTHING
Now when EVERY. SINGLE. TOWNS. PERSON. SUSPECTS. ONE. PERSON. (aka foxcastle)
Then that means A LOT

[Percy Williams]

I know we're stuck in Teacon versus Fox this phase, but what if Secretary Xorxes told Scum!flavius to follow Balki, like Flavius did with people he thought were Town players in a previous game, but rescinded his instruction when Flavius got a lot of flak for it.

[Durga]

I think teacon is townier from the exchange, but they are both playing pretty recklessly, and I can only see mafia playing that way if they are paired with another mafia.

hmmmm. what do you mean recklessly? i feel like if it was scum/scum they'd try and set up one person to look REALLY good when this was over, right?

Wait.
Wait wait wait.
Durga.

Are you saying that:
When scum knows they're going to die
...they try to set up clears and mislynches for their team the next day?

Because that's the premise of my entire argument about Balki/Durga D3. Balki at the very least did this.

okay? what do you want me to do with this info? balki also heavily bussed his teammate xorxes. so i don't know how to separate his bussing from his setting up mislynches. if you do, great. please enlighten me. otherwise, it's a wash

[Foxcastle]

I'm *so* good as scum that rdr had a 99.98 percent town read on me >:)

rdrivera isnt GOD, JUST because he said it means NOTHING
Now when EVERY. SINGLE. TOWNS. PERSON. SUSPECTS. ONE. PERSON. (aka foxcastle)
Then that means A LOT

I have this urge to punish you by scumreading you in the hopes that when I'm dead and towncleared, someone says "hey, didn't Fox think Flavius was scum?" But I think I am not quite that anti-town.

Dead townies can have good reads, but they can also have bad reads. In particular, they can have bad reads that have been bolstered with scum support in the game. And then when they're dead, they never get to change their mind.

[teacon7]

I'm *so* good as scum that rdr had a 99.98 percent town read on me >:)

rdrivera isnt GOD, JUST because he said it means NOTHING
Now when EVERY. SINGLE. TOWNS. PERSON. SUSPECTS. ONE. PERSON. (aka foxcastle)
Then that means A LOT

Flav just about everyone scumread you last game. That didn't make you scum. dead town could be wrong.

[Squigs44]

Please entertain the question with me. I'm probably going to die today.

Balki's play was full of wifom. No doubt. But it's also zugzwang - he HAS to do SOMETHING. (zugzwang is a chess term, it means: "a situation in which the obligation to make a move in one's turn is a serious, often decisive, disadvantage.")

xorx opted to lurk the whole day. maybe he does have IRL things too, I'd believe that. Xorx' vote on percy means... what? Xorx had to vote. He didn't want to give information by voting. Percy is simply a non-major candidate, maybe their guess at the BA. doesn't matter.

After rdrivera came out with his scan, balki was in a very similar situation. But Balki posted a LOT, and had some pretty specific goals in mind. There's enough to guess at the general shape of what those goals were.

It's too late now. The misdirection worked. Neph was convinced that it had to be one of teacon/fox/damo - THE EXACT PEOPLE THAT BALKI's PLAY SHADED. (I wonder who suggested those options, early d4?) So now here we are. The fact that I was the alternative major wagon to xorx is being dismissed by the clamor of feelings about how scummy I feel.

But both of you were scummy prior to Balki shading you. I'm not saying Balkis play condemns you, I'm saying it doesn't clear you

Of course I'm not cleared. We don't know any of this 100%. It's a question of probabilities. Balki played. ergo, he had some intended outcome in mind.

Which is more likely:
That Balki used his play to try to save xorx
or
That Balki tried to play a pure random game for maximum wifom
or
That Balki used his play to set up mislynches
?

maximum wifom is impossible there. He's got to do something. Besides fishing for PR claims, he ended the day strong by implicating 3 people as non-xorx alternatives: fox, teacon, damo. His late push on damo make it more probable that damo is scum. Him avoiding fox or I EoD3 means he wanted us shaded by his flip.

It's not 100%, no, but imo that's way better odds than how durga feels about anyone at any given point in the game.

You left off the odds that he was trying to bus you/fox. I think that the odds are a wash here. In this game, statistics and odds are a dangerous tool. If you rely too heavily on them, you don't catch the bold risky creative scum. But if ignore them, you are leaving out a big tool.
I am taking into consideration that Balki could have been setting up a mislynch, but I am also going to take into consideration the hundreds of posts you made, and ultimately those posts you made will outweigh the ones Balki made.

I just need to reread those posts.

[connorcompton]

Because if there wasn't a possibility, then why would you be asking the question?
Or if you're going the other way, I do think there is a chance damo is Mafia.

I understand.

@conner - why did you wait until NOW to claim?
Were you aware that damo had claimed when you claimed?

Was not present, and no.

[Squigs44]

I'm *so* good as scum that rdr had a 99.98 percent town read on me >:)

rdrivera isnt GOD, JUST because he said it means NOTHING
Now when EVERY. SINGLE. TOWNS. PERSON. SUSPECTS. ONE. PERSON. (aka foxcastle)
Then that means A LOT

If everyone but Fox is happy lynching Fox, that means at least three mafia are happy lynching Fox. There are, as you say, A LOT of things you can deduce from a universal scumread.

[ChippeRock]

I'm *so* good as scum that rdr had a 99.98 percent town read on me >:)

rdrivera isnt GOD, JUST because he said it means NOTHING
Now when EVERY. SINGLE. TOWNS. PERSON. SUSPECTS. ONE. PERSON. (aka foxcastle)
Then that means A LOT

If everyone but Fox is happy lynching Fox, that means at least three mafia are happy lynching Fox. There are, as you say, A LOT of things you can deduce from a universal scumread.

Perhaps 3 Mafia do in fact have their vote on Fox right now, but that's prone to change near the EoD...

[teacon7]

hmmmm. what do you mean recklessly? i feel like if it was scum/scum they'd try and set up one person to look REALLY good when this was over, right?

Wait.
Wait wait wait.
Durga.

Are you saying that:
When scum knows they're going to die
...they try to set up clears and mislynches for their team the next day?

Because that's the premise of my entire argument about Balki/Durga D3. Balki at the very least did this.

okay? what do you want me to do with this info? balki also heavily bussed his teammate xorxes. so i don't know how to separate his bussing from his setting up mislynches. if you do, great. please enlighten me. otherwise, it's a wash

Balki's d3:
Fish for PR
Bus xorx with vote
Avoid alternate wagons, so when they look at my d3 they'll say "oh he was protecting their hooker."

It's not like he was bussing for towncred, and it's not like he pushed a xorx wagon. The wagon happened anyway. Balki knew he was going to die to the 3rd party anyway, so it's not a question of survival.

Frankly, i don't expect you to be able to do anything with this information. scum!durga would have to fight a case or dismiss a case when attacked. town!durga would be flustered, but would know she's town. I don't 100% know your alignment, but the correlations here look bad for you. To move on from this impasse, I'd love it if you could explain:
1 - Why you played d3 the way you did?
2 - What did you think Balki's alignment was, and how did that affect your actions d3?
3 - How early do you think xorx told his team to bus him?
4 - If you're going to concede that marked-for-death scum try to set up mislynches?
5 - What do you think Balki was trying to accomplish d3?

[connorcompton]

So looking at the choice of vote... They both look pretty scum.

Both of them seemed to have spent today ignoring eachother completely and just making pointless arguments with Durga. If they know they're town, but only think the other's town, then actually presenting arguments why they shouldn't be lynched and the other should be would make sense, wouldn't it?

I think teacon's performance today has been more what would be expected of a town ready to be lynched, and I do think that Fox should maybe ANSWER DURGA'S QUESTION. just a thought.

##VOTE Foxcastle

[Durga]

1 - i don't understand this question. i scum read xorxes, i'm trying to figure out the game, i played exactly as i want to in the moment.
2 - i thought he was BA. he was v townie, and his willingness to follow rdr convinced me of it
3 - i don't know? i can't know this and there's no point in speculating it. it doesn't help us find scum because we can never know.
4 - not sure what you're exactly asking but balki probably thought he could survive by claiming BA and roleblocking the actual BA. that's why he acted so pro-town
5 - see above. he wanted to be BA read by us so we didn't lynch him yet.

[damo666]

Haven't fully caught up yet, but this is important so...

I was roleblocked.

Why is a question I haven't figured out the answer to yet.

LOL

It's a good thing our judge stopped to listen to everything, right?

This day could have been conner vs damo.

ffs this is really fucking annoying me

Connor with a fucking o

not Conner with a fucking e

Also it's 'have' not 'of'.

Could all the thick c*nts just f*ck off!

[Durga]

[teacon7]

You left off the odds that he was trying to bus you/fox. I think that the odds are a wash here. In this game, statistics and odds are a dangerous tool. If you rely too heavily on them, you don't catch the bold risky creative scum. But if ignore them, you are leaving out a big tool.
I am taking into consideration that Balki could have been setting up a mislynch, but I am also going to take into consideration the hundreds of posts you made, and ultimately those posts you made will outweigh the ones Balki made.

I just need to reread those posts.

I agree about the use of odds/statistics. I'm not using those as a heuristic to draw information from the thread, I'm using them as a way to determine which scenario is more likely. That takes into account Balki's bold play by saying "it's more likely that balki was bold."

Well look at the vote tracker when you reread. Balki never voted me or fox. That's my point. We were set up. All they had to do was convince the judge to pick the two of us.

[teacon7]

Haven't fully caught up yet, but this is important so...

I was roleblocked.

Why is a question I haven't figured out the answer to yet.

LOL

It's a good thing our judge stopped to listen to everything, right?

This day could have been conner vs damo.

ffs this is really fucking annoying me

Connor with a fucking o

not Conner with a fucking e

Also it's 'have' not 'of'.

Yeah sorry for misspelling your name. :/
Not sure what you mean by "have" or "of"