MINI MAFIA I - GAME THREAD

[brainbomb]

Ezio
Day-2 47:49
page 19 Ghug's push on durga d1 was the scummiest bullshit possible.
He simply lied about how she usually acts and used it to get her lynched. I pointed this out d1 and for some reason you all ignored me and listened to scum to bring her down.
Now he claims to be roleblocked when scum killed doctor? Give me a break. Don't doctors save themselves n1 like 90% of the time? That mean mafia almost certainly RB'd pouncy and this is a dumb claim by ghug hoping to get some easy towncred.

Lmao. What? Docs always save themselves N1? A brand new player.

Gtfo dude. How can you seriously believe this crap. 90%??? Ive never self saved as a doc - period - EVER. Not N1 not at all.

[brainbomb]

Ezio
Day-2 44:20
page 20 @Rd it's not pure wifom because of the doctor flip. Because the doctor died when they were likely self-saving makes it way more likely the mafia roleblocked the person their nk target, in this case pouncy.

I believe this is what happened.
I believe ghug is town faking being roleblocked.

[thamrick]

##Vote Ghug.
He's using the classic "town don't defend themselves" argument, mixed with some meta from Durga.
She has always defended herself staunchly. Saying she wouldn't as town is simply a lie and I don't think town Ghug would forget this.

@brainbomb in this game nolynch sucks. We don't have any good PR for information as our cop is terrible and if we NoLynch we go down from 3 mislynches before LyLo to 2 mislynches before MyLo.
In games like this nolynch sucks.
Games with PRs and games where nolynch turns MyLo into LyLo are good.

These two posts were the basis of my TR on Ezio.

As for why I take you seriously, I don't know. Maybe it's self-projection. I feel like claiming a red check if you don't actually have one is an awful way to drive a lynch.

If you're right, awesome!
If you're wrong, it just fractures the town and is incredibly costly in this scenario, likely making it auto lose.

If you want to drive a lynch on Ezio cause you're sure he's scum, don't do it with a bullshit cop scan. Show me an argument like the one you presented above this.

[thamrick]

I definitely agree the made up stats 90% and his "conservative" estimate of 60% that doc self-saves and mafia RB their NK target are garbage. Alignment indicative though?

[thamrick]

Knowing durga was town, a ghug town flip pretty much guaranteed durga got mislynched today instead

Why? Durga was pretty hesitant to lynch ghug and eventually only voted him for self-pres. I'm not convinced a ghug mislynch guaranteed a Durga mislynch D2.

[brainbomb]

Ezio
Day-2 43:40
page 20 I don't know if scum knew she was doc. I doubt it. Either way, scum usually roleblock the person they nightkill (when no prs have been outed). Doctors also usually self save n1.
If both of these events happen 60% of the time (I think they happen more, but let's be conservative), the odds that neither of them happened (which is what would be required for Ghug to have been rb'd) is a whopping 16%.
On the doctor not self-saving because she was new, she said she's played in person many times before.
Why did Ghug claim rb? Idk. I think he just made a mistake. This happens sometimes. I perhaps they discussed claiming rb at EoN and didn't reevaluate when doctor flips.

https://media.giphy.com/media/CDJo4EgHwbaPS/giphy.gif

Ignores ghug could be town faking roleblock.
Interesting ezio.

[brainbomb]

On the doctor not self-saving because she was new, she said she's played in person many times before.
Why did Ghug claim rb? Idk. I think he just made a mistake. This happens sometimes. I perhaps they discussed claiming rb at EoN and didn't reevaluate when doctor flips.

Lmao. No.

You cant really buy that
Ghug isnt some dickhead amatuer as scum. Are you even real?

[Ezio]

Everyone makes mistakes and I've caught Ghug for making a mistake before.
You're right bb I didn't consider Ghug being town faking rb. Why would he?

[brainbomb]

Everyone makes mistakes and I've caught Ghug for making a mistake before.
You're right bb I didn't consider Ghug being town faking rb. Why would he?

Hes done it before. He also does gimmicks as scum.

But you seem to know ghug wasnt roleblocked. To an intense degree.

[Ezio]

I don't "know" Ghug wasn't roleblocked but it's super likely he wasn't. I've explained why. You even read the post where I explained it.

[Ezio]

Does faking a rb not count as a gimmick?

[thamrick]

I don't "know" Ghug wasn't roleblocked but it's super likely he wasn't. I've explained why. You even read the post where I explained it.

I also read the post. I disagree with the "super likely" he wasn't. Can you explain further why?

[Ezio]

How about you say *why* you disagree and perhaps I can understand what's wrong.
I think you guys just don't think docs are about saving themselves at all which is patently false.

[bozotheclown]

@thamrick: Yes, I think bussing could be effective with 2 scum if it helps the second scum avoid getting lynched. Even if we lynch one of the scum D2, the second scum only needs two mislynches to win.

[thamrick]

How about you say *why* you disagree and perhaps I can understand what's wrong.
I think you guys just don't think docs are about saving themselves at all which is patently false.

Well you initially stated that you believed 90% of docs save themselves N1. I don't think that's true. I agree it's a possibility.

Then you based your argument that ghug is lying about his RB on the post where you said that a conservative estimate of both doc save and RB'd NK target was 60%. Then through some slick probability calculation (props for that), you paint the likelihood that ghug is telling the truth at 16%.

I just feel like you're ignoring the possibility of either a holstered RB or a Pouncy save off of herself and using that to bolster your argument against ghug.

[thamrick]

@thamrick: Yes, I think bussing could be effective with 2 scum if it helps the second scum avoid getting lynched. Even if we lynch one of the scum D2, the second scum only needs two mislynches to win.

Okay, so if you're going to bus, why would you actively save your partner who you've been bussing when you know that if he flips, it will tie back to you?

[thamrick]

I don't think about brain claims until he sustains them for 24 hours.

This is such a weird statement.

[bozotheclown]

To get a mislynch.

[bozotheclown]

I think brainbomb thought he could bus ghug without getting him lynched.

[bozotheclown]

Why would ne vote to save ghug if he really thought ghug was scum?