Mafia 46 - Ace Attorney - GAME THREAD

[ChippeRock]

We know if Fox is scum he is not: assassin, roleblock, and probably framer/lawyer (but we can't be sure about these two)

At the point where we know at best he can't be 4/6 roles, and at worst 2/6 it makes no sense to lynch him. Sure, he might be scum. But his likelihood has shot down and therefore it makes him a worse lynch.

How do we "know" he's not any of those roles? Why do you always make statements and never back them up!

Because Rdr scanned Fox N1 and got the result of "home"

I get that, but how is the Hooker on this list? Roleblocking doesn't mean you're leaving home, right?

[ChippeRock]

Well actually the odds are worse than 1/3 since he only sees home / not home and after cop is dead framer and lawyer won't do anything. However, his scan isn't random, so we shouldn't go off of those odds anyway.
Even if he gets a scan that says home or he gets RB'd or whatever, we can still lynch mafia without the judge doing a showdown. I think you are overestimating the judge Chippe.

Whether I convince you of this point or not doesn't matter, its up to Balki to claim.

I adjusted the Reporters odds to account for him being better at finding scum than randomness...

Okay so you used some arbitrary number to back up your case, good to know.

Can you explain to me why Judge picking 1 mafia and 1 town provides us with more value than your 1/3 chance of automatically finding and lynching scum?

No, I added "juice" to the Reporter's random odds.

The Judge will have about an 80% chance of choosing at least 1 scum, the Reporter has about a 1/3 chance of reading a Mafia PR. I'll take the better odds any day of the week.

[Squigs44]

In my mind this comes down to evidence vs. reads.

Do we have evidence anyone is not town. Yes. We know that Balki is scum or BA. He claims to be BA which means we can't risk lynching him due to the position we are in.

Do we have anything else? We have TrPrado's actions D2. He should have gotten a scan result start of D2. Thus, somewhere in D2 there should be a clue as to what his scan is. Is there evidence of this result? Clear cut? No. All I can do is make my own interpretation on his actions. I believe he is competent enough to leave something there.

Do we have anything else? We have Rd who has said that Fox did nothing N1. This means that if Fox is scum he didn't make an action N1.

We have player's reads on other players. Those are only as good as the individual player and the post history.

We are losing bad and I think we need to try to mine TrPrado and figure that out given that we are on the verge of losing. So, I am going to ##UNVOTE

I still like Fox as a lynch but then again it's my interpretation, we are in a really bad spot, and I want to look over everything again as I believe we should all do. It's the start of the phase there is time to look everything over. There is no rush to be hasty.

If we take away the TrPrado scan, do you still scumread Fox?

I wasn't scumreading Fox prior to this no.

Okay, well I think there is a better than 50% chance that he scanned me over Fox. He listed me before Fox as scum in his reads N1. He also used weaker language when referring to his scumread of Fox than I would expect if he got a scan on Fox.
If he did scan me, it would still make sense that he would push Fox out the gate on D2, since Fox was his #2 read, and he just scanned his #1 read as not guilty.
I am in no way clearing Fox, but I think anyone voting him needs a better reason than TrPrado's D2 push.

[Nephthys]

Okay so I'm glad we didn't hammer.

I'm not sure whether to believe Balki or not. Seems like a BA claim fits for him being either BA or mafia. Lynching him today doesn't seem like a good option, because if he's lying the real BA will take care of it.

I don't think balki should say who he scanned n1 as I don't want to risk outing a town PR in order to "clear" balki as 3rd party. There will be a time for claims later on. But I am curious... @balki - did you think you were scanning a mafia at the time? why would you then end up townreading the guy?

I've been getting scum vibes from foxcastle since early in the game. I don't like his tone, and he seemed like he was throwing more shade than anything else. I need to read him in iso so as to determine if a) that vibe holds true across the gap I missed, and b) reports on prado on foxcastle posted d3 are something I can trust. Don't take it the wrong way, but it's better to do rereading yourself.

so I scumread the guy before anything to do with prado. heck, I scumread prado too, so there's that. iirc the latest few pages have had people saying foxcastle isn't a good lynch today. Can someone please recap for me why fox is or isn't a good lynch today?

When Balki flips scum please tell me this guy is next. This reaction is scummy af

[Durga]

We're not lynching Balki, but also I agree with you that was a hella scummy post from teacon. Both his recent posts were yuck.

[Nephthys]

People who are saying the judge is endangered if Balki claims are very sus imo. The judge would be perfectly fine because mafia have to rb Balki and kill rdr so we're not endangering the judge.

Here are the benefits of Balki claiming his PR scan
a) If he's scum, he'll have to make a fake scan on someone, and then he'll be outted
b) If he's BA, there is a chance he has scanned mafia instead of town. He just thinks this player is town, but both roles are now conformable, so it might not be the case
c) Worst case but also ok - we confirm he has a scan on a PR (judge OR innocent child) and we know he's BA. This is fine because that PR will be **SAFE** tonight since rdr has to die.

There is no downside to him telling us. The only downside is FOR MAFIA

This.

Balki claim ffs

[ChippeRock]

Okay so I'm glad we didn't hammer.

I'm not sure whether to believe Balki or not. Seems like a BA claim fits for him being either BA or mafia. Lynching him today doesn't seem like a good option, because if he's lying the real BA will take care of it.

I don't think balki should say who he scanned n1 as I don't want to risk outing a town PR in order to "clear" balki as 3rd party. There will be a time for claims later on. But I am curious... @balki - did you think you were scanning a mafia at the time? why would you then end up townreading the guy?

I've been getting scum vibes from foxcastle since early in the game. I don't like his tone, and he seemed like he was throwing more shade than anything else. I need to read him in iso so as to determine if a) that vibe holds true across the gap I missed, and b) reports on prado on foxcastle posted d3 are something I can trust. Don't take it the wrong way, but it's better to do rereading yourself.

so I scumread the guy before anything to do with prado. heck, I scumread prado too, so there's that. iirc the latest few pages have had people saying foxcastle isn't a good lynch today. Can someone please recap for me why fox is or isn't a good lynch today?

When Balki flips scum please tell me this guy is next. This reaction is scummy af

You seem rather uninformed of the situation...

[Nephthys]

There's 6 scum and you can't pick more than one person?

Guys, the whole game Chippe has played with the intent to get people lynched, and not the intent to figure out who scum is (it was Tom who made this observation). Now, he essentially needs one lynch to win the game, and his only scum read is Fox when there's 6 scum left. Maybe we really need to rethink this player.

You've made no reads, and you're always going for policy lynches. Ooh! Let's lynch the cheater! Ooh! Let's lynch the lurkers!

Playing your safe ass game without any detailed reads. Hell, you can't even provide a detailed defense of your scumread on xorxes.

Damn hypocrite. Still can't believe you're written off as town when you've contributed little to this game, but yet you still post at an extremely high volume.

I actually listed exactly where each player was in my mind after EoN. So don't fucking lie you nasty shit. And stop personally attacking me when I point out the scumminess in your play. If you wanna scum read me, fine. But fuck you otherwise.

I gotta say, this is making me question Chippe again...

[Squigs44]

I adjusted the Reporters odds to account for him being better at finding scum than randomness...

Okay so you used some arbitrary number to back up your case, good to know.

Can you explain to me why Judge picking 1 mafia and 1 town provides us with more value than your 1/3 chance of automatically finding and lynching scum?

No, I added "juice" to the Reporter's random odds.

The Judge will have about an 80% chance of choosing at least 1 scum, the Reporter has about a 1/3 chance of reading a Mafia PR. I'll take the better odds any day of the week.

Give me odds for the following scenarios and I will show you what I mean:

Odds of Judge picking 2 town: xx%
Odds of Judge picking 1v1: xx%
Odds of Judge picking 2 mafia: xx%
Odds of Reporter getting a guilty scan: 30%

Odds of us lynching mafia if Judge gives us a 1v1: xx%
Odds of us lynching mafia if Judge doesnt act: xx%

[ND]

That's a decent interpretation Squigs and like I said I'm going to be re-reading and then reading TrPrado yet again. When I have the time. I think everyone should and make their own conclusions. I'm off for now.

[ChippeRock]

We're not lynching Balki, but also I agree with you that was a hella scummy post from teacon. Both his recent posts were yuck.

So, rather than lynch teacon, you're lynching xorxes - even though you can't understand his motivation as scum behind his RB claim?

[Nephthys]

People who are saying the judge is endangered if Balki claims are very sus imo. The judge would be perfectly fine because mafia have to rb Balki and kill rdr so we're not endangering the judge.

While I agree with you that Judge won't be NK'd tonight if he claims, I think that he should remain hidden unless in danger for the sole reason of having that claim / clear still available closer to the end of the game. I would rather have a clear later than today. Again if Judge is on the chopping block obviously claim an hour or so before EoD.

That's great except we are in end game, its effectively mylo as you yourself pointed out.

[Nephthys]

This sudden flare up of anger at me and OMGUS calling me scum simply because I disagree with you just proves you're just acting Durga. Hopefully the rest of town wakes up to that.

I cant help but laugh and cry

[FlaviusAetius]

Oh also while I'm thinking of it: we shouldn't endanger the judge today or tonight. If the judge picks SvS wagons, it'll be bad for information but we'd get a lynch. We don't know if the judge will pick that, but I want that possibility.
picking TvT would be unqualifiably bad
picking MvT would be okay - information might be gained
picking MvM would be awesome - not for info, but then maf can't try to start town wagons.

I thought your back why arent you saying things

[Squigs44]

How do we "know" he's not any of those roles? Why do you always make statements and never back them up!

Because Rdr scanned Fox N1 and got the result of "home"

I get that, but how is the Hooker on this list? Roleblocking doesn't mean you're leaving home, right?

Reporter reports back anyone that performed a night action unless that person was roleblocked. So yes, roleblocker leaves home to RB.

[Nephthys]

We're not lynching Balki, but also I agree with you that was a hella scummy post from teacon. Both his recent posts were yuck.

Don't worry I'm not suggesting we lynch him, just that he will flip soon regardless

[Squigs44]

People who are saying the judge is endangered if Balki claims are very sus imo. The judge would be perfectly fine because mafia have to rb Balki and kill rdr so we're not endangering the judge.

While I agree with you that Judge won't be NK'd tonight if he claims, I think that he should remain hidden unless in danger for the sole reason of having that claim / clear still available closer to the end of the game. I would rather have a clear later than today. Again if Judge is on the chopping block obviously claim an hour or so before EoD.

That's great except we are in end game, its effectively mylo as you yourself pointed out.

But if judge is safe and he claims now that doesn't help us lynch mafia. I was saying if judge is safe he shouldn't claim. We still have over half the players, so I wouldn't consider this the end game (even though the game could end soon).

[FlaviusAetius]

Oh also while I'm thinking of it: we shouldn't endanger the judge today or tonight. If the judge picks SvS wagons, it'll be bad for information but we'd get a lynch. We don't know if the judge will pick that, but I want that possibility.
picking TvT would be unqualifiably bad
picking MvT would be okay - information might be gained
picking MvM would be awesome - not for info, but then maf can't try to start town wagons.

Why did you bother typing any of this? I think teacon is a good lynch candidate too because I feel like he's struggling to contribute in a game where there should be a lot to say.

Big facts, but I also have a question for you right now;
What makes xorxes a better candidate that Percy in your opinion?
They both should be posting more, and doing more, but both are not, and it should be setting pings in everyone's heads, but they are both doing the same thing. There's literally nothing making them different, let's lynch someone we know; FoxCastle

[Squigs44]

Okay so you used some arbitrary number to back up your case, good to know.

Can you explain to me why Judge picking 1 mafia and 1 town provides us with more value than your 1/3 chance of automatically finding and lynching scum?

No, I added "juice" to the Reporter's random odds.

The Judge will have about an 80% chance of choosing at least 1 scum, the Reporter has about a 1/3 chance of reading a Mafia PR. I'll take the better odds any day of the week.

Give me odds for the following scenarios and I will show you what I mean:

Odds of Judge picking 2 town: xx%
Odds of Judge picking 1v1: xx%
Odds of Judge picking 2 mafia: xx%
Odds of Reporter getting a guilty scan: 30%

Odds of us lynching mafia if Judge gives us a 1v1: xx%
Odds of us lynching mafia if Judge doesnt act: xx%

sorry that should be 33% like you said, not 30%

[Nephthys]

While I agree with you that Judge won't be NK'd tonight if he claims, I think that he should remain hidden unless in danger for the sole reason of having that claim / clear still available closer to the end of the game. I would rather have a clear later than today. Again if Judge is on the chopping block obviously claim an hour or so before EoD.

That's great except we are in end game, its effectively mylo as you yourself pointed out.

But if judge is safe and he claims now that doesn't help us lynch mafia. I was saying if judge is safe he shouldn't claim. We still have over half the players, so I wouldn't consider this the end game (even though the game could end soon).

While I see where you are coming from, I think having one person that we know is speaking from towns best interests in important.

E.g. I heavily townread Durga although I can't be 100% sure of everything as she is not clear.

I think having the certainty of a clear could be useful