Mafia 46 - Ace Attorney - GAME THREAD

[ChippeRock]

WTF are you talking about? Jamiet clearly stated that you vote for one or the other, there are no "No Lynch" votes. As of right now, you & I are the only ones that can vote for someone other than et & Espresso - which is effectively a "No Lynch" vote.

Let’s say, for purposes of this explanation, that a majority believes both E’s are Town and vote No Lynch in Blue. In that scenario, we can all agree to tie the vote and No Lynch. If that happens, of course, somebody could choose to thwart the will of the majority and vote to break the tie at the last minute. But, they will be accountable for that action later.

I don’t care what the GM says. We have the option of not lynching either player if we think they are both Town (not saying we do). We can count our own votes and enforce it if we choose. And whether we untimely No Lynch or not, I think that will make the info we get this phase more interesting.

Sure it will - but trying to tie the vote results in both et & Espresso posting less content to defend their actions, and people's detailed reads/analysis on their game also slows down.

It's incredibly hard to tie the vote, and not too many people will be on board with it. And than there's the matter of MoscowFleet & teacon7 - who it appears we have lost. It's just doomed to fail, and I don't think it'll get its desired result.

Speaking of MF & teacon, ##CALL GM, if MoscowFleet and/or teacon7 don't get their 2 required posts in and/or don't get in a valid vote by the end of the phase, will they be modkilled (assuming no replacements are found)?

This plan also fails if both are scum. Scum will do whatever they can to try balancing this vote.

[et]

Answer for Squigs.
Questions for et:
Why did you defend Percy's vote when Percy gave no reasoning, but scumread Bozo's vote when he gave no reasoning?

I didn't scumread bozo because he gave no reason.
bozo voted Chipe when Chipe was already voted by many players.
Firstly, I thought he may be irritated by Chipe's post as Durga and didn't want to talke about Chipe.
But he said he read Chip as scum. And he didn't explain why he read Chipe as scum at first. So I was starting to doubt bozo. I thought he just want to alive and vote to a player about to be victim of lynch.
And Percy voted bozo when no one voted bozo.
I think, his thought is what I thought. And, I read Percy as town because of same thought.


After Bozo gave clear reasoning for his vote, did this impact your read on him?

Yes. He said, he read Chip as scum. And he didn't say why he read Chip as scum at first.
So, I read boz as scum strongly after I read it.


I leave here about half an hour, I will answer remaining questions afterward.

[Balki Bartokomous]

Sure it will - but trying to tie the vote results in both et & Espresso posting less content to defend their actions, and people's detailed reads/analysis on their game also slows down.

It's incredibly hard to tie the vote, and not too many people will be on board with it. And than there's the matter of MoscowFleet & teacon7 - who it appears we have lost. It's just doomed to fail, and I don't think it'll get its desired result.

Speaking of MF & teacon, ##CALL GM, if MoscowFleet and/or teacon7 don't get their 2 required posts in and/or don't get in a valid vote by the end of the phase, will they be modkilled (assuming no replacements are found)?

Nah, we get the same discussion. If No Lynch is not a majority, nobody should try to tie the vote. This just gives everyone a full set of options. No cop outs. Either you think one will flip scum, or you don’t. Nobody votes to lynch with a justification that they have no choice.

And if they are both scum, and so scum try to tie the vote, that will be very useful data too.

[Balki Bartokomous]

Just going to share my thoughts on these two before I do a re-read:

I have not focused on either one, and that’s why I really like this move by the Judge. I don’t think much attention at was paid to these two.

My general thinking on ET is that he is Town. He feels unvarnished. He has said a lot of things I disagree with, but I feel like he’s sincere. I feel like he has been unafraid to take some controversial positions, and I feel like he is showing genuine effort to solve. Maybe this is just a tonal read, but I just get sincerity from him. That said, I could not tell you who he has voted for or what controversial positions I even have in mind. I just feel like he’s been in the fray, trying, and hasn’t done much at all that seems like effort to blend/look busy.

Espresso — man, honestly perhaps the player of thought about least. I’ve just kind of had “think about later” in my mind. I generally like his thoughtfulness as I’ve skimmed since the Judge announcement. My nagging concern with Espresso is that the “I’m a VT, so lynch me if the other guy is a PR” snap-post seems a bit “Look at me I’m Town.” I don’t know that it’s fishing for a role claim from ET so much as it is like “LOOK AT ME, IM WILLING TO BE LYNCHED SO I MUST BE TOWN.” Almost like he announced that fast so it would be incorporated into people’s reads rather than waiting to make sure it would be the right move for Town. Can’t unring that bell, after all.

That said, I had no read on Espresso whatsoever before returning to the thread this evening. I need to read up.

[FlaviusAetius]

Before this, he was a candidate for the lynch, and so was TrPrado, him taking an early stance is questionable at best, and why now when its Espresso v et?
It just doesnt make sense coming from him.
@Foxcastle Why did you find it important to weigh in on TrPrado, now of all times?

Also @Durga I'm the one whose been on TrPrado this WHOLE game, so this kind of comment is making me CHANGE my perspective on him

I had started my push on TrPrado before the Judge vote was called. I wanted to finish that. It's not like the thread has a lot of other pressing matters to deal with, so we can still use this time productively.

So... am I reading you right, Flavius? You've been on TrPrado the whole game, and you've been scumreading me recently. And then I make some good points (your words), which you don't want to believe (I assume because you think I'm scum?), but instead want to believe the opposite?

That seems like motivated reasoning. And if I'm right that you and TrPrado are both scum, seems like a good excuse for you to move off bussing TrPrado.

Actually, I still think TrPrado is scum, but him doing detailed analysis just makes me second guess myself. I didn't second guess teacon last game, and it lost us the game. I also said Im going to do an ISO on TrPrado, so you will find out my final view on him there
Also I did not know you were finishing your push on TrPrado so my bad

[FlaviusAetius]

People complaining about the vote rule are being silly. If someone doesn't commit to a vote for one of the two choices because they were already voting for someone else, that still tells us something about them, no matter if the rules allow them to do so.

True, this means you @Balki @Chippie

[EspressoPatronum]

Theres an easy counter though,

If you are clearly going to be lynched then ET doesnt need to claim at all and going by your plan you have just outed (and therefore killed) a PR. I believe that is goal C...

Your plan undermines your own goals.

2 things.
1. Are you countering my response to the "it's too early criticism" or my post in general? I'm not sure how your counter functions against my points on the timing.

I'm not sure my plan translates very well to et not claiming anything. Is this what you're getting at? If it is, I'll think of a more precise response. If not, can you expand on your counter?

2. I'm also not sure you fully understood why I made the post in the first place. I created the post because people wanted to know why I asked et to claim. The post outlines my theory of the game + uses that to show my motivations for asking et to claim. While I definitely argue why I think it was correct, the central point of the post was to show my motivations.

It was against your response.

- You have claimed, ET has not
- If you are about to die at EOD (thereoretically), et does not need to claim regardless

Therefore, asking him to claim on the premise that he would need to sooner or later is fundamentally wrong and while I see your logic I still don't like your action.

Ah, I see. It's worth remembering that at the time of my posts on page 120, the likelihood of either of us dying was roughly 50/50. So I was not asking him to claim on the premise that he would have to sooner or later, I was instead asking him to claim to avoid a 50/50 chance at dying.

As you point out, we're now left with the possibility of et choosing not to reveal. I've been thinking about this for a bit now, and here's what I've come up with:

As a consequence of my either my claim request and/or my wall post (which was requested of me btw), he may now be in a situation where he has to claim something by the EoD. Even if it's just a VT claim, et saying nothing on the matter may not go over very well. Here are a few scenarios that come to mind... feel free to add any that I miss:

Scenario 1 - He says nothing/VT claim. He's a PR. town lynches me. Maf kills him at night because they think he's a PR.

Scenario 2 - He says nothing/VT claim. He's a PR. town lynches him. I probably survive the night.

Scenario 3 - He says nothing/VT claim. He's a VT. town lynches me. Maf kills him at night because they think he's a PR.

Scenario 4 - He says nothing/VT claim. He's a VT. town lynches him. I probably survive the night.

Scenario 5 - He says nothing/VT claim. He's scum. town lynches him. I probably survive the night.

Scenario 6 - He says nothing/VT claim. He's scum. town lynches me. He survives the night.

Scenario 7 - He claims PR. CC. town lynches me. Him and the CC fight it out or he gets NKd and the CC gets lynched.

Scenario 8 - He claims PR. No CC. town lynches me. He dies at night.

I'm sure there are more, but it looks to me like he's kinda forced to say something bcz he's going to die anyway. Either the maf kill him because they think he's a PR, or we lynch him because he hasn't said anything + the chance of him being a maf is > him being a PR.

My pitch to you is this: I think I stand a greater chance at living because the maf likely won't target VT claims.* If he doesn't claim PR, he should probably die. There's a slim chance that he's a PR and I've set him up for a death sentence. If that's the case... my bad!


*unless they don't believe the claim or the VT has been confirmed somehow. Example - Chippe is still alive.

[Tom Bombadil]

Several people have expressed towny feelings regarding Espressos lengthy posts. I just want to remind everyone that those are much less “readable” than off the cuff moments. It is useful information potentially, but I’d be careful townreadinf someone based on posts that can be very carefully crafted like that. Off the cuff, quick responses are much more readable than those long crafted messages.

[Tom Bombadil]

*full disclosure, I think both are town. Just that Espresso is less likely to be town I guess

[EspressoPatronum]

Several people have expressed towny feelings regarding Espressos lengthy posts. I just want to remind everyone that those are much less “readable” than off the cuff moments. It is useful information potentially, but I’d be careful townreadinf someone based on posts that can be very carefully crafted like that. Off the cuff, quick responses are much more readable than those long crafted messages.

Oof. I made the long posts in response to criticisms over my off the cuff responses.

Can't please 'em all, I guess.

[Tom Bombadil]

It must be late because part of me is considering a no lynch option...

[Nephthys]

@Espresso do you believe et is town?

[EspressoPatronum]

@Espresso do you believe et is town?

My kneejerk reaction is to say no.... but I'm almost certain that is because I'm in the "him or me" mode. Let me think on it overnight and give him a proper iso tomorrow.

I don't like that he hasn't claimed a role, but that's apparently not as scum indicative as the metas I'm used to.

[Balki Bartokomous]

Let me just add: what the Hell is wrong with MoscowFleet? Did somebody beg him to sign up and play? This just feels disrespectful. If we have a sub, we should get a sub.

[EspressoPatronum]

Let me just add: what the Hell is wrong with MoscowFleet? Did somebody beg him to sign up and play? This just feels disrespectful. If we have a sub, we should get a sub.

MF Page 57 - "Sorry folks - I’m in England visiting my uncle, flight just landed at Gatwick two hours ago. Dead tired and going to bed right now, but at least phase timings are more convenient now."

He's probs travelling + doesn't have WiFi +/ the time to keep up.

[Balki Bartokomous]

@Espresso do you believe et is town?

My kneejerk reaction is to say no.... but I'm almost certain that is because I'm in the "him or me" mode. Let me think on it overnight and give him a proper iso tomorrow.

I don't like that he hasn't claimed a role, but that's apparently not as scum indicative as the metas I'm used to.

I feel like your long post with all the scenarios kind of assumed ET was Town. Can you explain why you might have conveyed that unintentionally?

[Balki Bartokomous]

Let me just add: what the Hell is wrong with MoscowFleet? Did somebody beg him to sign up and play? This just feels disrespectful. If we have a sub, we should get a sub.

MF Page 57 - "Sorry folks - I’m in England visiting my uncle, flight just landed at Gatwick two hours ago. Dead tired and going to bed right now, but at least phase timings are more convenient now."

He's probs travelling + doesn't have WiFi +/ the time to keep up.

So have someone else play who has WiFi.

[FlaviusAetius]

Are you people reading the same game I am?

Pages 1-8: Et starts the the game by bringing up the Jailor and associating that role with Balki.

Pages 24-29
Wants to know why players are voting for Chippie. Specifically reasons and especially bozo. Wants Chip to stop talking about cheating. Wants to know why Tom is voting for TRP.

Page 30:
Some unclarity and then clarity about voting without reasons. It becomes clear he doesn’t like Bozo’s vote without reason. He thinks Bozo is scum.

Page 31:
Says he will vote damo or cru? I think if I read that right but never really questions them or brings that up again. He apparently doesn’t understand voting mechanisms as of page 31 and probably has not even read the game start post christ.

Page 53:
Responds to Trp who I assume is TrPrado. Reiterates how he thinks bozo is scum because ET doesn’t understand his explanation for his vote on Chip? He goes on a bit. Thinks Chip is town, but you know doesn’t like Chip’s talk of cheating. Keeps saying he thinks bozo is scum.

Page 55
After all of that, basically from at least page 30 to page 55 of softing his suspicion of Bozo he finally votes Bozo, of course, says he won’t change his vote. Says he thinks Bozo is scum. His reasoning is pretty poor, of course, but then again the Bozo wagon was beyond dumb so you know not seeing anything from this guy so far that doesn’t make me think he isn’t anything more than a mental midget.

Page 64
Says, unexpectedly, that he wanted to lynch ‘lurkers’ ? What? he doesn’t mention the word lurkers so far to my knowledge, just Bozo, Bozo, Bozo, or as he puts it Boz, Boz, Boz. Then says he may vote TrP? That’s weird. Super weird boys.

Page 66:
Says Bozo lied about voting for chip. Says “He must scum I think.” Dumb. Bozo was pretty straight and narrow with his reasoning. This guy is obscuring Bozo here. Backpeddles a bit on Page 71. Really hopes Bozo is lynched as of Page 74.

Page 74
His reaction to Bozo’s flip? Well, you guessed it: “boz was VT? I am surprised. Rip boz.” ET was surprised. Bull crap. This guy was locked onto bozo basically as post history shows.

Page 80:
Justifies his vote on Bozo. Says he also thinks TrP is scum on page 80 which he mentioned earlier on Page 64 a grand total of one time.

Page 94
Asks what evidence is to Neph. Says he was focused on boz.

Page 95
Responds to some people. Wants to know why I think Bozo’s scumreading is correct. Um, answered by me plenty of times thus far in the game.

Page 109
Wants to know why Squigs voted for boz. Like I’m doing this post history of ET and I still don’t understand WHY he thinks bozo was scum (because bozo thought Chippie was scum and ET didn't understand that?) Dang.

Page 117:
Says he is thinking about Squigs, me, and Neph. Alot of this has to do with Chip and Flav. Page 118 talks about his take on the NKs. Page 120: Talks about Espresso. Says he has no idea about Espresso.

Page 123-124
Talks about PR claims. Votes Espresso.

Page 126
Doesn’t want to talk about Judge

My thoughts
Well I think out of the two on this forced Judge wagon that ET is the better chance of flipping scum. I see nothing in here that shows a motivation to game solve. I see ET jumping on Bozo for Bozo's asymmetrical logic on Chippie. Once ET gets on Bozo he doesn't let go and he preps this for many pages before he votes Bozo. ET was riding first class on the Bozo wagon. He also inexplicably townreads Chippie for no real reason. Furthermore, he mentions TrPrado as a possible secondary lynch choice once then brings that back up n1. I think out of the two choices ET has a better chance of flipping scum.

##VOTE ET

If I even think Espresso's reason for wanting ET to claim a PR if he has one is even a little bit decent, then I want you to know @ND this is the reason I would be voting ET, everyone needs to take another look at this post because it pretty much nails the head on ET

[Tom Bombadil]

It’s best to just treat Moscow as a modkill. It’s not the first time he has done this

[et]

Answer for Squigs 2 (I tried underlining my answer, but I think Underlining questions may be better now)
You said you might vote for TrPrado near the end of the day. Why?

I doubted Prado at the time. Because he parked his vote.

You said that Bozo lied, and said you pointed out where he lied in viewtopic.php?p=81359#p81359 (this post). Can you quote the post where he lied and tell me how it was a lie?

That was my misunderstood.
My misunderstanding thought is that.
'Firstly bozo said he read Chipe as scum.
At near by Eod1, bozo said that was policy lynch.'
And I understand my misunderstood in conversation with bozo and posted it.
I will quote it in next reply.