Mafia 46 - Ace Attorney - GAME THREAD

[ND]

Are you people reading the same game I am?

Pages 1-8: Et starts the the game by bringing up the Jailor and associating that role with Balki.

Pages 24-29
Wants to know why players are voting for Chippie. Specifically reasons and especially bozo. Wants Chip to stop talking about cheating. Wants to know why Tom is voting for TRP.

Page 30:
Some unclarity and then clarity about voting without reasons. It becomes clear he doesn’t like Bozo’s vote without reason. He thinks Bozo is scum.

Page 31:
Says he will vote damo or cru? I think if I read that right but never really questions them or brings that up again. He apparently doesn’t understand voting mechanisms as of page 31 and probably has not even read the game start post christ.

Page 53:
Responds to Trp who I assume is TrPrado. Reiterates how he thinks bozo is scum because ET doesn’t understand his explanation for his vote on Chip? He goes on a bit. Thinks Chip is town, but you know doesn’t like Chip’s talk of cheating. Keeps saying he thinks bozo is scum.

Page 55
After all of that, basically from at least page 30 to page 55 of softing his suspicion of Bozo he finally votes Bozo, of course, says he won’t change his vote. Says he thinks Bozo is scum. His reasoning is pretty poor, of course, but then again the Bozo wagon was beyond dumb so you know not seeing anything from this guy so far that doesn’t make me think he isn’t anything more than a mental midget.

Page 64
Says, unexpectedly, that he wanted to lynch ‘lurkers’ ? What? he doesn’t mention the word lurkers so far to my knowledge, just Bozo, Bozo, Bozo, or as he puts it Boz, Boz, Boz. Then says he may vote TrP? That’s weird. Super weird boys.

Page 66:
Says Bozo lied about voting for chip. Says “He must scum I think.” Dumb. Bozo was pretty straight and narrow with his reasoning. This guy is obscuring Bozo here. Backpeddles a bit on Page 71. Really hopes Bozo is lynched as of Page 74.

Page 74
His reaction to Bozo’s flip? Well, you guessed it: “boz was VT? I am surprised. Rip boz.” ET was surprised. Bull crap. This guy was locked onto bozo basically as post history shows.

Page 80:
Justifies his vote on Bozo. Says he also thinks TrP is scum on page 80 which he mentioned earlier on Page 64 a grand total of one time.

Page 94
Asks what evidence is to Neph. Says he was focused on boz.

Page 95
Responds to some people. Wants to know why I think Bozo’s scumreading is correct. Um, answered by me plenty of times thus far in the game.

Page 109
Wants to know why Squigs voted for boz. Like I’m doing this post history of ET and I still don’t understand WHY he thinks bozo was scum (because bozo thought Chippie was scum and ET didn't understand that?) Dang.

Page 117:
Says he is thinking about Squigs, me, and Neph. Alot of this has to do with Chip and Flav. Page 118 talks about his take on the NKs. Page 120: Talks about Espresso. Says he has no idea about Espresso.

Page 123-124
Talks about PR claims. Votes Espresso.

Page 126
Doesn’t want to talk about Judge

My thoughts
Well I think out of the two on this forced Judge wagon that ET is the better chance of flipping scum. I see nothing in here that shows a motivation to game solve. I see ET jumping on Bozo for Bozo's asymmetrical logic on Chippie. Once ET gets on Bozo he doesn't let go and he preps this for many pages before he votes Bozo. ET was riding first class on the Bozo wagon. He also inexplicably townreads Chippie for no real reason. Furthermore, he mentions TrPrado as a possible secondary lynch choice once then brings that back up n1. I think out of the two choices ET has a better chance of flipping scum.

##VOTE ET

[Squigs44]

Et:
The english as a second language thing is making it very difficult to read et. Take for example this exchange where I still don't know what et means. After reading through things slowly I think I understand better, but it is still really hard for me to get a read. This post and this post are a bit contradictory, as et says that without a reason given on a vote, he can't read the alignment of bozo, tom, or carl, but then defends Percy's vote when Percy doesn't give a reason, he just says he doesn't like Bozos play.

He expresses that he wants to lynch lurkers, waffles between Neph and Bozo, but then goes for Bozo because he thinks Bozo is joining a bandwagon and blending in.
Then in the last sentence of this post he says he might go for TrPrado, which is strange because TrPrado is not a lurker, and et never gave a reason for scum reading TrPrado.
Day 2 is a lot of repeating himself that he townreads Chippe, Percy, and TrPrado, but he never really expands on those ideas beyond what he posted in D1. He also waffles on scumreads of myself and Flav.
Overall, the contradictions and confusion could be due to the language and he could very well be town, or they could be from him being scum. Hopefully et's answers to my questions will clear some of this up and give me a better idea of alignment.


Questions for et:
Why did you defend Percy's vote when Percy gave no reasoning, but scumread Bozo's vote when he gave no reasoning?

After Bozo gave clear reasoning for his vote, did this impact your read on him?
You said you might vote for TrPrado near the end of the day. Why?

You said that Bozo lied, and said you pointed out where he lied in this post. Can you quote the post where he lied and tell me how it was a lie?

You say that you townread Chippe, Percy, and teacon here. Those townreads seem to be built at the very beginning of D1. The townread of Percy looks to be because he agreed with you? Why does agreeing with you make him townie? Any updates on your thoughts of teacon, or Chippe?

[ND]

I would like to see the answers to @Squigs questions too, but there is a very diminished chance he is town in my mind he is much more likely to flip mafia based on what I just read and my analysis above.

[ChippeRock]

Are you people reading the same game I am?

Pages 1-8: Et starts the the game by bringing up the Jailor and associating that role with Balki.

Pages 24-29
Wants to know why players are voting for Chippie. Specifically reasons and especially bozo. Wants Chip to stop talking about cheating. Wants to know why Tom is voting for TRP.

Page 30:
Some unclarity and then clarity about voting without reasons. It becomes clear he doesn’t like Bozo’s vote without reason. He thinks Bozo is scum.

Page 31:
Says he will vote damo or cru? I think if I read that right but never really questions them or brings that up again. He apparently doesn’t understand voting mechanisms as of page 31 and probably has not even read the game start post christ.

Page 53:
Responds to Trp who I assume is TrPrado. Reiterates how he thinks bozo is scum because ET doesn’t understand his explanation for his vote on Chip? He goes on a bit. Thinks Chip is town, but you know doesn’t like Chip’s talk of cheating. Keeps saying he thinks bozo is scum.

Page 55
After all of that, basically from at least page 30 to page 55 of softing his suspicion of Bozo he finally votes Bozo, of course, says he won’t change his vote. Says he thinks Bozo is scum. His reasoning is pretty poor, of course, but then again the Bozo wagon was beyond dumb so you know not seeing anything from this guy so far that doesn’t make me think he isn’t anything more than a mental midget.

Page 64
Says, unexpectedly, that he wanted to lynch ‘lurkers’ ? What? he doesn’t mention the word lurkers so far to my knowledge, just Bozo, Bozo, Bozo, or as he puts it Boz, Boz, Boz. Then says he may vote TrP? That’s weird. Super weird boys.

Page 66:
Says Bozo lied about voting for chip. Says “He must scum I think.” Dumb. Bozo was pretty straight and narrow with his reasoning. This guy is obscuring Bozo here. Backpeddles a bit on Page 71. Really hopes Bozo is lynched as of Page 74.

Page 74
His reaction to Bozo’s flip? Well, you guessed it: “boz was VT? I am surprised. Rip boz.” ET was surprised. Bull crap. This guy was locked onto bozo basically as post history shows.

Page 80:
Justifies his vote on Bozo. Says he also thinks TrP is scum on page 80 which he mentioned earlier on Page 64 a grand total of one time.

Page 94
Asks what evidence is to Neph. Says he was focused on boz.

Page 95
Responds to some people. Wants to know why I think Bozo’s scumreading is correct. Um, answered by me plenty of times thus far in the game.

Page 109
Wants to know why Squigs voted for boz. Like I’m doing this post history of ET and I still don’t understand WHY he thinks bozo was scum (because bozo thought Chippie was scum and ET didn't understand that?) Dang.

Page 117:
Says he is thinking about Squigs, me, and Neph. Alot of this has to do with Chip and Flav. Page 118 talks about his take on the NKs. Page 120: Talks about Espresso. Says he has no idea about Espresso.

Page 123-124
Talks about PR claims. Votes Espresso.

Page 126
Doesn’t want to talk about Judge

My thoughts
Well I think out of the two on this forced Judge wagon that ET is the better chance of flipping scum. I see nothing in here that shows a motivation to game solve. I see ET jumping on Bozo for Bozo's asymmetrical logic on Chippie. Once ET gets on Bozo he doesn't let go and he preps this for many pages before he votes Bozo. ET was riding first class on the Bozo wagon. He also inexplicably townreads Chippie for no real reason. Furthermore, he mentions TrPrado as a possible secondary lynch choice once then brings that back up n1. I think out of the two choices ET has a better chance of flipping scum.

##VOTE ET

Love this post from you. For the sake of being impartial, and not tunneling on et, could you provide a similar analysis of Espresso's game? Just to explain why Espresso is less likely to flip scum.

[ND]

Yes, I am planning on an Espresso read rn

[ChippeRock]

I thought we shouldn't claim our role in this early time.
Unfortunately Espresso claimed he is VT, but I don't claim now.

Why Espresso encouraged me to claim?
I think 4 cases.

1 Espresso is VT and he thought of me as VT

In this case, I think we had better not to claim.
Mafia may think of aliving one as PR.

2 Espresso is VT and he thought of me as town PR

In this case, he had better to say that 'I am VT, not PR. So, please vote me'

3 Espresso is VT and he thought of me as Scum

If I were scum and claimed town PR, he would be killed by lynch.
But, I alive at next day. Town can doubte me.

4 Espresso is scum.

As Prad said.


I think, most likely 3. But 4 is possible too.

If you are both town this will hurt town badly.
I strongly disagree with the Judge's choice on using his power this early on the game.

We were lost anyways. Judge has made a great decision! Forced us to take a detailed look at two overlooked players and analyze their games. As I explained in a previous post, if the Judge removed the obvious strong town reads from his PoE and randomly selected two from that batch, there's a 75% chance at least one of them is scum. Absolutely great move from the Judge, and while it's a gamble, it's a gamble we need at this stage.

[ChippeRock]

A quick follow up with Chippe before bed:

So do you think I look worse with the flip as well?
Kind of an aside, but on this particular note I’d totally do it again. Based on the specific things I look at and why, I don’t regret the push, especially because it’s correct more often than not.

Regarding you “highlighting” people’s behavior, I feel it’s important to note that the pessimistic and over the top way you go about it has the opposite effect. People think you’re jumping the gun and are less likely to take you seriously, which is ultimately unhelpful because even if you’re right you’ll have a harder time convincing everyone else of it.

You look worse because you quickly jumped onto Cruuader's wagon *immediately* after ND jumped on it. Again, as I've stated before, I think that based on the information present at the time, the Cruuader scum read & vote was just dumb and it really doesn't reflect you in a good light. Additionally, the fact that you jump off of Cruuader's wagon a few hours later is very suspicious - this coupled with your "impulsive" jump onto Cruuader doesn't shed you in a good light in my opinion.

I don't disagree that, with the additional information that Cruuader provided, reading Cruuader as scum was completely justified (which is why I haven't jumped onto teacon's case about it - there was a big indicator from Cruuader before that that he had played Mafia before), but my issue is the impulsiveness to jump on Cruuader's wagon and overall very bad & scummy looking scumread of Cruuader when the information that would back that read wasn't available at the time.

This is kinda part of what I mean by you assuming the worst. I’ve explained my position, one I stand by and don’t regret, but you’ve completely ignored my reasoning. Whether or not he played games off site factored completely 0 into my consideration of him, which is a point I tried to make very clear several times.

Not factoring in a player's experience in your reads is just plain dumb.

[EspressoPatronum]

As promised, here’s why I think et should have claimed. This is PART I of 2.

I - The Central Piece of My Argument
My central premise is this: the worst thing the town can do is mislynch a PR (henceforth the “Premise”). If you disagree with the Premise, you will likely disagree with my actions & and none of my arguments will be very persuasive.

One preliminary note - I’m focusing the discussion on maf and PR interaction. You’ll notice that I leave policy out of my post to keep things focused on PRs.

II - The Premise - Intro
For those of you who are on the fence about the Premise’s validity, I have a few introductory notes.

PRs help the town win. They’re not the only way for the town to win, but they usually provide crucial utility to the town in the way of information, offence, or defence. As you can see in most setups, many of the maf utility roles are built around finding, weakening, or nullifying the PRs. While both factions compete for their primary wincon (ie. kill everyone else), there’s also a ‘game within the game’ happening at night between town PRs and maf actives. Town MRs and mafia actives can make or break a game.

If the town wincon is to kill the mafia - and PRs are instrumental in doing so - the town(*1) should attempt the following (in rough order of importance non-exhaustive): (a) lynch mafia, (b) find mafia, (c) not lynch PRs, (d) not reveal PRs. I’ll refer to these as “the Goals”

We spend most of the day phases doing (b) in the attempt of achieving (a). If our positive goals are unclear (ie. a and b), we should fall back on avoiding our “not” goals (c and d). In lynching a PR, we fail all 4 of the top town priorities… we didn’t lynch a mafia, it is now mor difficult to find mafia, we lynched a PR, and we revealed a PR.

III - The Goals in Action
You can see the Goals at work in most games. Look back in this thread, even, and you’ll find a number of examples of people talking about not revealing others’ PR claims (goal (d)). For example, I told Chippe on page 112 to stop pointing out Durga’s potential crumbs. People do this to protect PRs from mafia kills, but it’s important to always remember that protecting the identity of a PR is secondary to preventing a PR from getting lynched. And both of those give way to lynching and finding mafia.

If there is a significant chance the PR might be lynched, then they should ensure the town does not mislynch them. It’s better to lynch literally anyone else than a PR. Because of the judge power, et and I both had roughly a 50% chance of being lynched (at the time in which the power was used). In my view, this chance is significant enough to warrant a claim.

The issue is further complicated once you factor in the likelihood that et is NOT a PR. Looking at it from a spectator’s point of view, and assuming he isn’t the judge (because why would he do this???), et has a 3 in 19 (15.7%) chance of being a PR. If you’re a non-judge PR reading this you, know it’s a 2 in 19 (10.5%) chance he’s a PR. Meanwhile, there’s a 7 in 19 (36.8%) chance of being maf or BA. If you’re any town reading this, you KNOW there’s a 7 in 18 (39% chance) he’s scum. Fwiw, these last 2 stats apply to me as well, since I have stated I am not a PR.

Asking et to claim works toward our goals in a number of ways:
If he claims PR without CC, there’s no way you lynch him. He likely dies at night, but you can be certain it’s not bcz of a lynch
If he claims PR with CC, you don’t lynch him. If he dies at night, you lynch his CC.
He he claims no PR, then him and I are on equal footing

If scenario 1 or 2 is true, then I should willingly die. I firmly believe the town should lynch in almost every circumstance, and I don’t think this one is any different. Deaths = information, and information advances our primary wincon.

PART II, with sections "IV - My Actions This Game" and "V - Responses to Criticisms" to follow in another 30 mins - 1 hr. Maybe more.

[ChippeRock]

LOL just when I thought our situation couldn't get worse we have the dumbest judge possible. Wow. I don't even know what to do with this

See this post of mine for my reasons on why I think you're wrong and this is a great decision by Judge.

[EspressoPatronum]

I'm catching up on the forum right now to add to my "responses to criticisms" and "my actions this game." Not sure how long I'll take, but I'll write and post PART II once I finish that.

[Squigs44]

I think ##VOTE Espresso

It's likely they are both town, but et's posts feel more off-the-cuff and spontaneous and Espresso's posts are more considered, which is not necessarily scummy but there's not much more to go on.

I don't think claiming VT, especially so early helps town, but it's not particularly scummy either, just not well thought out.

This is hedgy af Xorxes. Spontaneous vs considered is not alignment indicative, I make posts of both types as both alignments. Genuine vs Fake is alignment indicative. Do you think Et's spontaneous posts are genuine and EP's considered posts are ingenuine?

[ChippeRock]

I GENUINELY think this is another case of town being really loud and talkative and mafia just lurking their way to victory

Should we just lynch Moscow?

Yes, yesterday.

But also, he just finished a game where he lurked his way to scum victory. Nearly got modkilled for it. I'm just not sure he would do that twice in a row.

Maybe if we can catch a break and buy some time, the Blind Assassin could help us out with finding lurking scum. (Which could fit the Darg kill. He does have lurks-as-scum reputation. But that's speculative and I'm not sure it goes anywhere useful without more information.)

I just don't understand how people fail to continue to understand why MF's past games should NOT be used against him. Again, I analyzed ALL of MoscowFleet's previous games here, this is extremely unusual behavior from Town!MoscowFleet and Scum!MoscowFleet. Please read it before making another post expressing this same viewpoint.

If you disagree with my analysis, than please post why.

[EspressoPatronum]

I would like to see the answers to @Squigs questions too, but there is a very diminished chance he is town in my mind he is much more likely to flip mafia based on what I just read and my analysis above.

@Squigs and @ND. I have noted the questions. I'll include them in my criticisms/questions section.

[Squigs44]

Lol @EP for writing an essay. Reminds me of the time I wrote an essay on Rdrivera vs Flash in M37 that ended the game. If you write an essay only a few people will actually read it, just tell us in one or two paragraphs what your thoughts were about the PR claim thing.

[damo666]

I'm catching up on the forum right now to add to my "responses to criticisms" and "my actions this game." Not sure how long I'll take, but I'll write and post PART II once I finish that.

PART I was a very strong post. Looking forward to PART II. Could be a vote swinger.

[EspressoPatronum]

Lol @EP for writing an essay. Reminds me of the time I wrote an essay on Rdrivera vs Flash in M37 that ended the game. If you write an essay only a few people will actually read it, just tell us in one or two paragraphs what your thoughts were about the PR claim thing.

A lot of people were critical of my actions + I wanted to give a full explanation of my reasons. I'll post a summary after, but I wanted the full thing out there so those who are interested can read it.

[Squigs44]

Lol @EP for writing an essay. Reminds me of the time I wrote an essay on Rdrivera vs Flash in M37 that ended the game. If you write an essay only a few people will actually read it, just tell us in one or two paragraphs what your thoughts were about the PR claim thing.

A lot of people were critical of my actions + I wanted to give a full explanation of my reasons. I'll post a summary after, but I wanted the full thing out there so those who are interested can read it.

Make sure you talk about the timing of a PR claim in part II. I think that is the main concern here is that you called for a PR claim much too soon, when it could possibly be avoided if you were already going to be lynched without any claims.

[ND]

I read it and I am also re-reading Espresso. I thought it was a good post. Looking forward to Part II

[Durga]

I think ##VOTE Espresso

It's likely they are both town, but et's posts feel more off-the-cuff and spontaneous and Espresso's posts are more considered, which is not necessarily scummy but there's not much more to go on.

I don't think claiming VT, especially so early helps town, but it's not particularly scummy either, just not well thought out.

This is hedgy af Xorxes. Spontaneous vs considered is not alignment indicative, I make posts of both types as both alignments. Genuine vs Fake is alignment indicative. Do you think Et's spontaneous posts are genuine and EP's considered posts are ingenuine?

I find the post from xorx weird as well

[Durga]

##vote ET