Mafia 46 - Ace Attorney - GAME THREAD

[FlaviusAetius]

@Espresso: I think one of Chippie or Flav have to be scum. I've explained why I think it's Chippie, but Flav does seem to really buddy up to him and that is usually a scumtell. It doesn't make sense for scum to buddy scum. What do you think?

My Read on Both of Them:
I'm basing my Flav read on the assassin having to call the bomb in the day + then it activating at night. If that's an incorrect interpretation, I'm not as confident in my read. The vote swing and his lying are two red flags.

Most of my want to kill Chippe is policy-based. Even if we don't kill him, I think we should consider enforcing stricter rules on attempts (perceived or real) to game the system. It deteriorates the integrity of the game, and if we allow it +/ reward it, it incentivizes others to do it in the future. I don't know the right answer to it, but I think voting him out asap is one of the answers.
- That being said, the fact that darg was bailiff makes Chippe's D1 actions more sus. As stated earlier, I thought he could maybe even be breadcrumbing with the incompetence flavour of the bailiff, but that's not possible anymore.
- his behaviour since he stopped the VT thing appears fairly town.

The Bottom Line
If I had to lynch one or the other based on my scum read alone, I'd pick Flav EVEN IF I am incorrect about the bomb sequencing. If I am correct about the bomb sequencing, I legit can't see how it can be anyone other than Flav. I want to hedge all that by saying how important I think game integrity is, so in other scenarios, I would probably lynch Chippe.

The Buddy Question
Buddying a scum as scum could be a great strategy under the right circumstances. If the 'buddier' dies, the buddy target could maybe use that to get town points or something. It strikes me as the opposite scenario as when two scum argue really hard against each other. For an example of the latter, imagine the teacon v xorxes debate from m1007 if they were both maf. Once one died, the other would be pretty safe. In either the arguing or buddying scenarios, I'd say it's high-risk / high-reward.

I think this is a really well thought out post. Thank you for sharing your thoughts on it a bit more. I am going to take a deep dive into Flav tonight I think. He is raising my eyebrows.

As to what Flav said above:

"Why is my association with Chippie so bizarre??"

I think it's buddying or very near borderline buddying if that makes sense.
Just explained below why it isn't buddying, if anything he's buddying ME


"People picked on him before this game started, and I thought it was fair to let him play, glad we allowed it. But it seems that's all spilled over into the game. We need to focus on people not to keep opening up new wagons."

What does this have to do with anything. I accepted the decision to let him play. I haven't brought that up in-game. Why are you tying that to the game. It has nothing to do with it. His actions are what is causing me to scumread him.


Because a lot of the same people are trying to get him lynched for 'attempting to break the rules' You are doing the same(or was it espresso I forget)

"Please tell me what hasnt already been answered that makes C hippie such a scum? "

You have your mind made up on him. Nothing I say is going to convince you. If you truly care then re-read his logic on teacon/cruaader. I completely dissect it and make him backpeddle. That's only one example. There are way more examples. If you read him logically and my counterpoints to him you will see a lot of cracks in his facade.

Ok I'll re-read him, and if I dont find anything, your either hardcore tunneling him, or a scum. Chippie's been cleared, and you are resurrecting his wagon, makes no sense

[ChippeRock]

@Espresso: I think one of Chippie or Flav have to be scum. I've explained why I think it's Chippie, but Flav does seem to really buddy up to him and that is usually a scumtell. It doesn't make sense for scum to buddy scum. What do you think?

My Read on Both of Them:
I'm basing my Flav read on the assassin having to call the bomb in the day + then it activating at night. If that's an incorrect interpretation, I'm not as confident in my read. The vote swing and his lying are two red flags.

Most of my want to kill Chippe is policy-based. Even if we don't kill him, I think we should consider enforcing stricter rules on attempts (perceived or real) to game the system. It deteriorates the integrity of the game, and if we allow it +/ reward it, it incentivizes others to do it in the future. I don't know the right answer to it, but I think voting him out asap is one of the answers.
- That being said, the fact that darg was bailiff makes Chippe's D1 actions more sus. As stated earlier, I thought he could maybe even be breadcrumbing with the incompetence flavour of the bailiff, but that's not possible anymore.
- his behaviour since he stopped the VT thing appears fairly town.

The Bottom Line
If I had to lynch one or the other based on my scum read alone, I'd pick Flav EVEN IF I am incorrect about the bomb sequencing. If I am correct about the bomb sequencing, I legit can't see how it can be anyone other than Flav. I want to hedge all that by saying how important I think game integrity is, so in other scenarios, I would probably lynch Chippe.

The Buddy Question
Buddying a scum as scum could be a great strategy under the right circumstances. If the 'buddier' dies, the buddy target could maybe use that to get town points or something. It strikes me as the opposite scenario as when two scum argue really hard against each other. For an example of the latter, imagine the teacon v xorxes debate from m1007 if they were both maf. Once one died, the other would be pretty safe. In either the arguing or buddying scenarios, I'd say it's high-risk / high-reward.

I think this is a really well thought out post. Thank you for sharing your thoughts on it a bit more. I am going to take a deep dive into Flav tonight I think. He is raising my eyebrows.

As to what Flav said above:

"Why is my association with Chippie so bizarre??"

I think it's buddying or very near borderline buddying if that makes sense.

"People picked on him before this game started, and I thought it was fair to let him play, glad we allowed it. But it seems that's all spilled over into the game. We need to focus on people not to keep opening up new wagons."

What does this have to do with anything. I accepted the decision to let him play. I haven't brought that up in-game. Why are you tying that to the game. It has nothing to do with it. His actions are what is causing me to scumread him.

"Please tell me what hasnt already been answered that makes C hippie such a scum? "

You have your mind made up on him. Nothing I say is going to convince you. If you truly care then re-read his logic on teacon/cruaader. I completely dissect it and make him backpeddle. That's only one example. There are way more examples. If you read him logically and my counterpoints to him you will see a lot of cracks in his facade.

"Backpeddling"? Are you tunneling or just scummy? I specifically asked him *how many games of Mafia he had played previously*, not *have you played Mafia before*. Idiot.

[ChippeRock]

##vote Foxcastle

That's where my head is right now. Though, I am not at all confident. And I have not ISOed Fox, and I need to do that. But here are the impressions in my mind:

Fox has been sitting back, cracking jokes all the time, super chill. He has sprinkled in comments. He's been around. But he has not been taking stands. Most of his reads have been about gathering information or enforcing policies. He has not taken a stand on anything likely to get pushback. He has not made any scumread on an experienced player who would put him in the spotlight.

He's playing to avoid confrontation.

I made a similar read on him for similar reasons the last time we played together, and I was right at that time. I feel like he may be scum again here.

Those are some good points. I could get on board with his wagon.

[ND]

Sigh I can't even lol it's like a hodgepodge between those two every time I post.

[ChippeRock]

there is also

a) darg killed by car bomb, mafia killed Carl, SK targetted me/darg/Carl

i can't see why they would track either tbh, why is that a power?

regardless, we won't know. and i'm not sure what difference it makes

The difference is evaluating whether Mafia or SK killed Carl. That helps us analyze their motive behind it.

[Durga]

I am NOT a PR and I didn't crumb anything. I'm surprised darg actually jailed me.

[EspressoPatronum]

Espresso do tell us why you were lurking on Day 1? Is it because you were 'too busy'?

It was. And in the effort of transparency, I also lurked a fair bit of N1.

I think I've mentioned two or three times now that my week was busy. I work 9-5 + had plans after work on Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday.

Not much I could do about it tbh.

[TrPrado]

Flavius why have you been buddying Squigs all game? You never seem to be willing to answer.

[Durga]

there is also

a) darg killed by car bomb, mafia killed Carl, SK targetted me/darg/Carl

i can't see why they would track either tbh, why is that a power?

regardless, we won't know. and i'm not sure what difference it makes

The difference is evaluating whether Mafia or SK killed Carl. That helps us analyze their motive behind it.

no thats just wifom

btw do you like... work or anything? how are you online 24/7

[Balki Bartokomous]

there is also

a) darg killed by car bomb, mafia killed Carl, SK targetted me/darg/Carl

i can't see why they would track either tbh, why is that a power?

regardless, we won't know. and i'm not sure what difference it makes

Well......thinking about this more....

it seems to me to be decently likely that the Blind Assassin did not make a kill last night. I just feel like Carl makes some sense as a Mafia kill target, and very little sense as a Blind Assassin kill target. Carl was probably the most widely town read player in the game. And it cannot be true that Blind Assassin targeted Darg based on order of operations (Blind Assassin kill happens before Mafia Assassin kill).

If we assume scum killed Carl, Blind Assassin did not kill. I think that makes odds fairly decent that Blind Assassin is Durga or Xorxes, right?

[EspressoPatronum]

there is also

a) darg killed by car bomb, mafia killed Carl, SK targetted me/darg/Carl

i can't see why they would track either tbh, why is that a power?

regardless, we won't know. and i'm not sure what difference it makes

Well......thinking about this more....

it seems to me to be decently likely that the Blind Assassin did not make a kill last night. I just feel like Carl makes some sense as a Mafia kill target, and very little sense as a Blind Assassin kill target. Carl was probably the most widely town read player in the game. And it cannot be true that Blind Assassin targeted Darg based on order of operations (Blind Assassin kill happens before Mafia Assassin kill).

If we assume scum killed Carl, Blind Assassin did not kill. I think that makes odds fairly decent that Blind Assassin is Durga or Xorxes, right?

Using the Carl = maf target assumption, I think Durga being the target of the Blind Assassin is just as likely as her being the Blind Assassin.

So Xorxes = BA, Durga = BA, Durga = BAtarget are the outcomes of your assumption.

[Squigs44]

There are only three possible scenarios on what happened this night:

1) darg was killed by Mafia day kill, SK killed Carl, Mafia tried killing SK
2) darg was killed by Mafia day kill, SK killed Carl, Mafia tried killing whoever darg jailed
3) darg was killed by Mafia day kill, SK tracked somebody, Mafia killed Carl

The 3rd option is the most likely in my opinion, but there's a decent chance either of these 3 scenarios occurred. Progress!!

Assuming flavor is meaningful, which it seems to be, that seems correct, plus:

4) darg was killed by Mafia day kill, SK was jailed, Mafia killed Carl

Since Durga was jailed, then (2) means she was the NK target and (4) means she is SK. In either case she is not Mafia.

If (1), Mafia know who the SK is.

(3) is the least informative, but I'm not sure why SK would choose to track instead of kill.

I can think of a decent line of reasoning for why SK would track. If SK kills blindly, its less likely he gets to the end of the game with VTs. If he scans, and everytime he gets a PR/Mafia scan kills them the following night (or tries to get them lynched the next day) and everytime he gets a non-PR scan tries to keep them from getting lynched, then he can set up a good position for himself come end of game. Remember when worcej played an almost flawless SK game but got caught at the end simply because there were too many PR claimants? Scanning can help remedy that. I think this strategy is also helpful to town in general (pros and cons, but generally helpful), especially now that our bailiff is gone.

[Balki Bartokomous]

there is also

a) darg killed by car bomb, mafia killed Carl, SK targetted me/darg/Carl

i can't see why they would track either tbh, why is that a power?

regardless, we won't know. and i'm not sure what difference it makes

Well......thinking about this more....

it seems to me to be decently likely that the Blind Assassin did not make a kill last night. I just feel like Carl makes some sense as a Mafia kill target, and very little sense as a Blind Assassin kill target. Carl was probably the most widely town read player in the game. And it cannot be true that Blind Assassin targeted Darg based on order of operations (Blind Assassin kill happens before Mafia Assassin kill).

If we assume scum killed Carl, Blind Assassin did not kill. I think that makes odds fairly decent that Blind Assassin is Durga or Xorxes, right?

Using the Carl = maf target assumption, I think Durga being the target of the Blind Assassin is just as likely as her being the Blind Assassin.

So Xorxes = BA, Durga = BA, Durga = BAtarget are the outcomes of your assumption.

Agreed.

[Durga]

uhhh worcej got caught because mafia hit up and then outted him

[Durga]

ooohh shiiiiet you caught me i'm the BA. let's make a deal. who you want dead tomorrow?

[Squigs44]

Flavius why have you been buddying Squigs all game? You never seem to be willing to answer.

I also want to know, but it might stem from #Squigsdude, the most enjoyable part of this game (for me at least).

[Durga]

for the record,

no way xorx as BA claims roleblocked esp if it meant his kill didn't go through.

and i obv don't claim jailed either with the jailer dead.

[Squigs44]

uhhh worcej got caught because mafia hit up and then outted him

Yeah but mafia hit him not because they were like "I think he is the SK", they hit him because they were like "It can't be x, x, x, or x so it's either Worcej or x" (can't remember all the x's). I know you were the one who pulled the trigger on that so correct me if I am wrong here, but that is what I remember from the discord.

[Durga]

uhhh worcej got caught because mafia hit up and then outted him

Yeah but mafia hit him not because they were like "I think he is the SK", they hit him because they were like "It can't be x, x, x, or x so it's either Worcej or x" (can't remember all the x's). I know you were the one who pulled the trigger on that so correct me if I am wrong here, but that is what I remember from the discord.

given foxy and i were on the panel there, i initially thought it was worcej so i said we should jail him or w/e power bozo had, but then we switched to someone else and the kill was put on worcej under the impression he would flip town

[Balki Bartokomous]

ooohh shiiiiet you caught me i'm the BA. let's make a deal. who you want dead tomorrow?

Nice! Maybe kill Foxy Knoxy if he survives the lynch? But I may update you later.

Cool! There's no reason why we can't work as a team. We're after the same thing at the moment.