Mafia 46 - Ace Attorney - GAME THREAD

[Foxcastle]

So, I am 12 pages behind on thread and have a though schedule at work today, so I will cast a ##vote Foxcastle.

I feel I miss answering someone yesterday, but can't look at it right now, so if you (whoever you are) want a fast answer please ask again.

Is this your gut feeling, still? You've read 43 pages and that's what you've got? LAZY

[EspressoPatronum]

But it is, if he were scum, he would know there's a QT for scum where they can see who the other scum are, and he wouldn't make a slip like this (unless it is a fake town slip - but again, he's a noob, and I don't think he would pull that off w/o any communication with his alleged teammates).

A) There's a third party in this game.
B) That particular phrasing doesn't exactly take an expert when everyone is questioning him anyway as to why he's making the decisions he is.

His mindset is new scum. Case closed.

There’s an incredibly obvious reason he would be like this as town too.
You and ND need to bring it in for a minute. I get your excitement but you’re rushing this a bit.

Agreed. I was hoping nobody had to say it, but I suppose it was necessary before they started tunneling too hard.

[EspressoPatronum]

On page 15 and decided to check on y'all. To answer your question (I'm not quoting what you said for obvious reasons) I'm against D1 lynching simply because statistics have proven that D1 lynching tend to hurt the town more than the mafia. @et

What statistics are you using? You have statistics on forum mafia games?

It's a generally accepted statistic that D1 lynching tends to hurt Town more than mafia. Let us say we have 5 mafia in this game, if we random lynch we have a 1/4 chance of killing a mafia. That's all and good but 3/4 times we kill a townie, go to night where the mafia kill a townie and we lose almost 1/5 of the town members. And that isn't including the 3rd party killer which at best can kill 1 mafia and at worst kill 3/15 townies total.

Interesting. I've played in maybe 3 or 4 different metas, and all but one were in the 'always lynch' camp. Can you expand more on the no-lynch side?

Here's my reasoning -- Mafia don't die* unless the town votes them out. Even though the chances are higher to hit a townie, the town should almost always* lynch. If they don't, mafia essentially get a free kill.

* Excluding town PR kills. They're not consistent in all maf games, so they can be excluded.
**Almost always - there are some endgame scenarios that warrant a no-lynch to debate 1 turn.

[dargorygel]

G'morning
First, sorry for yesterday's absence... I had a visitor who became tTTWL (the Thing That Wouldn't Leave) and then I had the chance to umpire a Little League game, and like... who WOULDN'T choose that over almost any other activity? I had to send two kidlings to the bench because they hated each other, and kept fighting. Good evening,eh?

AND today (as Wednesdays usually are for me) is busy work-wise. I plan to be on near EoD, but not much more.

Regarding Carl's comments about my activity level, I see what he means. But I'll state in response that deep digging interaction is not what I usually do on D1. I roll my eyes, usually, at the 'absolutes' that people declare on D1. I ALMOST agree with the NoLynch idea, accept that analysing voting patterns of D1 will help us later. D1 I read a lot.

Here are TrPrado's questions of me, with my replies/comments:
Who is your top scum choice?
Flavius. I don't like the early conversations about Balki. It tastes to me like a secretery told a newbie-ish scum, "be careful of Balki. He be clever." Would Flav have reacted then so obviously? idk, Wifom, but my gut says he's scum. The Flavius I read in the last game was more focused... this one seems skittish and jumps a lot.
If you had to say what Chippe's alignment is, what do you think?
I think Chippe is town. He tried some shenanigans, desiring to Save the Town and be our hero. It didn't catch anyone's agreeing attention, so when he stopped trying to teach us how brilliant he is (knowing that he came in the game with a fair amount of hostility against him) he moved on. I also think he stood up well to the pressure. Finally, I don't see why a scummie would try his trick. And I imagine that if he DID, the secretery would have been screaming at him from the first moment. And Chippe kept on for quite some time.
What do you think Flavius's alignment is?
Scum. I'll be voting for him in a moment.
Would you prefer to vote for policy lynch or someone who you think is scum?
lol... my vote on MF was a policy vote. I still could go there. But when we have forty-eleven small wagons, there is no pressure on MF... and also, my policy vote was not really just 'pressure.' I am worried about the recent success of lurking scum. I would stay on an MF lynch, if it looked like it was gaining traction. It's not. So I move to my top scumread.
##vote flaviusaerelius

[ND]

@trprado:. 60% huh? Well could be that he says alot of stuff I need to address and is on when I am. I've been busy with work and had only two big chunks of time I can play so far. Overall thoughts on people I think I address other peeps in my catch up stuff. If u want to know thoughts on someone in paticular ask away.

@carl: why the obsession with me and drugna (ur at least the second to directly mention this) just read m1007 If u want to get your kicks or jollies or whatever dude. If she says something I find scummy I'll fucking call her out like I always do. But forcing a fucking meta fight between two players isn't pro town at all. Not saying ur doing that but Jesus people are fucking obsessed with that shit.

I'll play when I can today but like work, grades are due soon, appointment after my work. So be around when I can.

[ND]

I'll read past 54 on break ltrs

[Foxcastle]

Who do you think might be on the scum team and why?

Dunno. It's Day 1 and I don't think I've ever caught scum this early.

(To be fair, though, I think I've caught scum like twice ever.)

I don't think ChippeRock is scum, and I don't think scum have been voting him. I think they'd want to keep him around because they know he could be an easy lynch later.

Moscow Fleet might or might not be scum. I'm okay lynching him because he's an atrocious lurker.

Flavius has this big thing hanging over him about how he knew Balki was smart and experienced. Which he claims he just picked up from, like, barely anything Balki-related that had been posted when he said that. That's unlikely. BUT... how likely is it that the scum Secretary is both 1) a player experienced enough to know that Balki is smart and experienced and 2) dumb enough to post in the mafia QT something that could lead to slips? I think that's unlikely too. Just as unlikely, if not more.

However, that does also mean that if Flavius does flip scum, we can probably narrow down a somewhat narrower pool of players for the next scum. He posted the smart/experienced comment less than an hour after game start, so if the latter theory is true (which it might not be, even if he is scum), the Secretary posted it within the first hour, and then I would bet came to the game thread to say hello.

Actually, Flavius could be a high enough value lynch that it's worth it to see how he flips. If he's scum, I think that puts town even further ahead than if we manage to catch another one.

##VOTE FLAVIUS


I feel like I've seen this version of Tom before, and he was town. I forget which game that was, but I think he ended up fakeclaiming Cop or something. I'm inclined to townread him.

I am very wary of Balki and Squigs in general. Squigs is smart and experienced, and there are a lot of c-words for Balki. Clever is the one Squigs landed on, but there are others. But sure, they look pretty townie right now.

I'll just stab with my gut here: Flavius is bussing TrPrado, and with them is Neph, rdrivera (OMGUS), and... hm... Dargo.

[dargorygel]

A couple of thoughts before I hit work...
a) Huh? Baseball? Just realizing that I ALSO talked about baseball, but there is a lot of baseball comments...
b) I recommend against full readlists at this time... only benefits scum's deliberations tonight. Convince me otherwise.
c) The newbie squad is looking like a good bunch, to me.
d) I wonder about the list of non-voters at this point on D2. Remembering last game's Einstein ploy, the secretery might have suggested they wait to vote en masse toward the end? Especially with the unusually early EoD timing.

FInally... I asked connor and carl if they knew each other, and didn't get a response. I am far too pleasant to be accusing them of knowing each other irl, but I am asking about their early conversation where they seemed to be speaking 'again.' So I ask them again, carl and connor... have you played in games together before? Can you explain the 'again' reference here?

connorcompton
Day-1 46:51
page 4 / orig
↑Carl Tuckerson: "Pay me $20 and I’ll jail you tonight"
Nice to be speaking with you again, Carl.

[damo666]

##vote Bozo

He still hasn't properly explained the full reasoning behind his vote. He is also a bit lurkier than normal.

Also not sure I can be around EOD and have to get a vote in and not particularly scumreading anyone.

Pretty sure Carl and Chips both town.

Could people please avoid posting walls. Unattractive and invites skimming rather than full read.

[rdrivera2005]

A new player who says "I don't want to die day one, best not to talk too much" is 100000% scum

He said night one, big difference.

[rdrivera2005]

Cruaader, why are you worried about dying night 1?

Why this question?

[rdrivera2005]

It would seem the town has missed my wonderful and foolproof wisdom How to Read New Players 101.

It also seems that you jumped onto the Cruaader wagon AFTER ND, who you know is scum from the QT, jumped on him.

ND has been lurking the whole game - making short posts that contributed nothing to the game and bitching about how many pages a Mafia game, a fucking Mafia game, has required him to read - and he suddenly out and scapegoats a clear noob town.

Do you really believe two scum will pile this way in a Noob town on D1? It can happen to save a fellow scum but it doesn't seem the case.

[rdrivera2005]

Good night for real this time.

Hopefully I don’t dream of slamming my face onto a desk repeatedly, but I’m not holding my breath...

I dunt know why this post seems soooo forced to me. Moving Tom to maybe scum list.

[rdrivera2005]

Well ND seems to be 100% convinced I am scum, so if I'm lynched and it just so happens to be that I'm actually a townie, then it'd prove that ND is either suspicious or just a straight up mafia member

Or that he's a townie and wrong.
Which, after this episode, is what I'm betting is the case (revised reads incoming btw).
Seems like a terrible deal, kill a townie to make another townie suspicious.
Why don't you just show ND you're town by digging into what people have said, providing analysis, etc.? That would be the best outcome.

Unlikely, ND's read on Cruaader is just straight up dumb. He would clearly be scum if Cruaader gets mislynched.

This logic is atrocious.

[Balki Bartokomous]

@rdrivera, sheep me on Flavius please.

[Percy Williams]

Percy Williams:

Really concerned that he's just flying through the game and seeming to dodge the radar. He also misspells Capitalism which I simply can't forgive.

Forgive me Comrade, the old days in the motherland come back easily.

He sees Flavius getting heat for being defensive and says the last time Flavius was scum he was "less defensive and more accusatory of any other target." He says he doesn't feel the game at this point isn't a joke phase but everyone is just participating in jovial banter to keep people "interested and talking." He then goes on to make an exclusively jokey post.

I believe having lighthearted jokes throughout the game is integral to keeping team moral up and to maintain investment in the thread. Even if people just Don't want to miss jokes, they're reading the read more thoroughly. Also I love to tell jokes, and need to justify my behavior to myself. The point is:
Me posting=Me inevitably telling jokes.

He defends Flavius further and wants to make it very clear that he thinks Flavius is town because he thinks it seems like he was defending Flavius. I marked this as odd in my head because I'm not sure how someone would get that impression. He asks for someone to analyze the gut reads Squigs gave in response to Squigs criticizing the Flavius list.

I wanted to make it clear that I thought he was town because I thought it seemed like I was ATTACKING Flavius. I also wasn't asking Kowalski for a full analysis on Sguiggs' gut reads, just Rhetorically asking someone to count scum in his total gut reads. The point of the post was to show Sguiggs that he was not blameless from his reads either, at a time when he was pushing flavius for his reads.

When Carl calls out the Chippe vote by Squigs, Percy says he believes it's because of a scumread not pressure (Squigs later says it was pressure). He's very critical of Squigs overall and asks Squigs to "focus on catching scum" though he himself has done very little of that.

I Wasn't. Here is the original post:

Guys, I really don’t think Chippe is mafia from his behavior so far.
He may well be mafia, but his shtick about being VT is not the reason.
I have a strong gut feeling he will flip VT and we will collectively cope by saying “well he was being obtuse and unhelpful and making useless posts” despite knowing deep down that our goal isn’t to kill unhelpful people but to kill mafia.

Chippe is known for being a rock. Can we stop trying to get water from him?

In particular, I would like to know why everyone is townreading Squigs. I understand not being sold that he is mafia yet, but I also don’t see what he has done to earn a town read either.

I completely agree with you here carl, I don't think Chippe is scum. The only way his actions make sense as scum is if Chippe is a master of Wifom.I

And Squiggs focus on catching scum, and giving honest open reads gives him town vibes, but what he has done is shaky, and easy to fake as scum.

I was explaining to Carl that the reason Squiggs was being townread was Sguigg's focus on catching scum, but as you presumed the text implied he hadn't focused on catching scum, I think that is a testament to how shaky it is as a sole reason for townread.

He makes jokes about the Chippe situation and more weird jokes about claiming Jailer with Carl. Durga calls him out for it. Percy goes on to vote for bozo presumably for lurking. He then discusses meta, which I'm silently annoyed by. When Flavius says it looks like everyone skipped over bozo Percy tries to get credit for having a vote on him. He then goes back to defending Chippe. Overall unhelpful.

I'm not crazy about Meta either, but I think it is important to know that Flavius has an effect of seeming really scummy, even as town. Not knowing that cost us the last game. With my comment to Flavius I was saying that I was suspicious of Bozo as well, and tried to show town hedgers that there was support they could get behind in a bozo lynch.

QUESTIONS:

What are your thoughts on players who aren't Chippe or Squigs?
Do you intend to offer any sort of analysis?
Who do you think is on the scum team?

1. I've made it clear I scumread Bozo, and slight townread chippe, and I also have posted a townreads list:

My mini town reads list ( for people who seem really town to me)
Et
Carl Tuckerson
Teacon

I'm worried Xorxes will get stuck in a tunnel again, and I think that I can add Balki and TrPrado to my town reads list, but I'll have to iso to be sure. Full town team read list coming before end of phase.
2. I do, but I'm terrible d1. I think my strength is in pulling people out of tunnels, and the beauty in my reads lists. Also Has Anyone looked at Bozo!(at this point you might have, as I am behind.
3. I'm doing a read strategy that I started last game, where instead of looking for scum, I find those with the ring of town to their name, and see who's left. obviously that's not great D1, but later game it keeps me focused on how townie the players been all game, instead of zoning in on one weirdly grammared post that seems suspicious, but is just bad grammar. (Like how I turned Grammer into a verb? )



Final comment:
Blimey, you managed to misinterpret a lot of what I said.

[Jamiet99uk]

VOTE COUNT 1.8:

bozotheclown(3) - Percy Williams, et, Damo666
FlaviusAetius(3) - Balki Bartokomous, Dargorygel, Foxcastle
CruaaderReynauld(2) - ND, Teacon7
ChippeRock(2) - bozotheclown, EspressoPatronum
TrPrado(2) - Tom Bombadil, FlaviusAetius
MoscowFleet(1) - Durga
teacon7(2) - connorcompton, Nephthys
Tom Bombadil(1) - Squigs44  
Percy Williams(1) - xorxes
No‑Lynch(1) - CruaaderReynauld
ND(1) - ChippeRock
Durga(1) - Carl Tuckerson
Foxcastle(1) - Rdrivera2005

Unvoted: TrPrado

Nobody is scheduled to be executed. 

5 hours and 49 minutes remain until judgement.

[Jamiet99uk]

##GM NOTE

Moscowfleet and TrPrado are now the only players without a valid vote.

Penalty!*





*My continued use of the word "Penalty" is mere flavour and has no in game effect. Continued questions about this will result in a penalty.

[Percy Williams]

I am so tempted to ask if it is flavour penalties, or mechanical penalties that will result.

[rdrivera2005]

So, I am 12 pages behind on thread and have a though schedule at work today, so I will cast a ##vote Foxcastle.

I feel I miss answering someone yesterday, but can't look at it right now, so if you (whoever you are) want a fast answer please ask again.

Is this your gut feeling, still? You've read 43 pages and that's what you've got? LAZY

Not only, but of course it has a part on it. I dislike your no joke phase, but not posting anything of substance until page 29.
I don't like your comment about ND and Durga and calling ND a good player (seems like baiting or buddying or both).
I don't like you did not vote (a bit hipocrite on my part I know).
I don't like your comment about not reading your own game, which is obviously a low.
I don't like your questioning without following.
I dunt like your GM call for an obvious thing.

This is also lazy?