M1007 — "Mafia, She Wrote" Game Thread

[FlaviusAetius]

Interesting how you just went on large attack onto Xorxes, and made zero mention of what bozo said??
Someone finally agrees with you, and nothing...?

[Foxcastle]

Vote Count 3.2

teacon7 (3) — xorxes, FlaviusAetius, VashtaNeurotic
VashtaNeurotic (2) — bozotheclown, ND
xorxes (1) — teacon7

teacon7 is set to be lynched! (Not that any votes changed or anything.)

Less than 3 hours remain in Day 3.

e.m.c^42, MoscowFleet, and Percy Williams must cast votes.
VashtaNeurotic and Percy Williams must meet the 2-post minimum.

The subs list is currently empty, so while I will try to find replacements if anyone doesn't meet the participation requirements, modkills are a possibility.

[teacon7]

@emc Please vote earlier in the day. Please don't risk a modkill. If you're town, I think that loses us a ML which would be... bad.

@flav - Are you asking to me?

@moscow
@percy
where are you guys?

[VashtaNeurotic]

Even presented as a joke, it is inconsistent with your effort to avoid getting lynched. Also, it seemed you were content to stay away as long as you were not a wagon.

If you think your third possibility is most likely, why not vote for ND instead of teacon?

You realize that jokes are inherently meant to subvert expectations right...so ofc it'd be inconsistent with previous posts. Also ofc I posted more when I was almost getting lynched at EoD....who wouldn't?

Because teacon already has a considerable amount of people suspecting him, i.e voting him is the easiest way to test my theory rather than trying to get a lynch going on ND with like 11 hours left and me potentially asleep for all except 2 or 3 of those. I don't care about which scum we get so long as we get scum, so why not go for the one who has the largest wagon on them already and a case that doesn't rely on my theory that could be wrong.

[FlaviusAetius]

Exactly @vashta
Right now, its most likely that teacon is scum, hit him first then we can discuss other possibilities.
We'll have an NK to help as well, and more votes to analyze.
ND what do you think of teacon?
I want to know why you arent hopping on that wagon.

Yes I am @teacon

[teacon7]

bozo has agreed with some of the points I'm making. It's not a new thing, he's been doing it for a while. I appreciate that he's also taking a bit more of an objective stance on XvT - it helps to bring a bit of calm and maybe a bit of light.

That kind of distance isn't necessarily good... I'd rather see him commit to one side or another. Hedging reasonably is... well, only a few steps up from hedging like a lurker. Keep in mind what I found back there in damo's reads. Distance and the "oh i'm still not sure" lets a scum!bozo eventually hop on a vote against me for specious reasons at the end of the day, but then he can walk back after I flip town. That's if you think he's scum.

All told I read him as a townlean wash ... the distance he's making is effectively making him a lurker in every case but the one wagon he's currently pushing, but the reasonable demeanor is pretty pro-town.

[bozotheclown]

Even presented as a joke, it is inconsistent with your effort to avoid getting lynched. Also, it seemed you were content to stay away as long as you were not a wagon.

If you think your third possibility is most likely, why not vote for ND instead of teacon?

You realize that jokes are inherently meant to subvert expectations right...so ofc it'd be inconsistent with previous posts. Also ofc I posted more when I was almost getting lynched at EoD....who wouldn't?

Because teacon already has a considerable amount of people suspecting him, i.e voting him is the easiest way to test my theory rather than trying to get a lynch going on ND with like 11 hours left and me potentially asleep for all except 2 or 3 of those. I don't care about which scum we get so long as we get scum, so why not go for the one who has the largest wagon on them already and a case that doesn't rely on my theory that could be wrong.

Here is what you said about your vote on teacon:

There are 3 possibilities:
1. The mafia chose to bus the godfather day 1 over just...trying to hook onto the major wagon that's been going on all day (in which case I guess xorx is your prime candidate)
2. The mafia just wasn't around and was afk for EoD (in which case Percy or even emc makes sense)
3. No matter how they voted, a scum would go down. In which case, ND is scum and your prime candidate would be either teacon, emc or moscow. As teacon didn't vote until 15 minutes left with 4 on ND and 4 on damo, and emc didn't vote until 0:06 and Moscow with 0:02.

I think the third has the most crossover between most sense and viable wagons today. So I'm gonna ##voteteacon atm for that (and also durg was almost certain that teacon was scum and it being teacon and ND would uh...not be the craziest thing). Also going to reread and iso teacon/xorxes tomorrow as once again, it may actually be my last day.

So you think ND as scum is one of three possibilities, and if that possibility is the correct one, teacon is one of three possible teammates. That does not sound like a very strong read.

[bozotheclown]

bozo has agreed with some of the points I'm making. It's not a new thing, he's been doing it for a while. I appreciate that he's also taking a bit more of an objective stance on XvT - it helps to bring a bit of calm and maybe a bit of light.

That kind of distance isn't necessarily good... I'd rather see him commit to one side or another. Hedging reasonably is... well, only a few steps up from hedging like a lurker. Keep in mind what I found back there in damo's reads. Distance and the "oh i'm still not sure" lets a scum!bozo eventually hop on a vote against me for specious reasons at the end of the day, but then he can walk back after I flip town. That's if you think he's scum.

All told I read him as a townlean wash ... the distance he's making is effectively making him a lurker in every case but the one wagon he's currently pushing, but the reasonable demeanor is pretty pro-town.

I am still unsure on you and xorxes, but I am willing to lynch both of you in either order to find out. My preference is to lynch xorxes first, but that is not looking likely today.

[teacon7]

I am still unsure on you and xorxes, but I am willing to lynch both of you in either order to find out. My preference is to lynch xorxes first, but that is not looking likely today.

I also would rather we lynched him first.

Why are you on vash rather than either of us?

@bozo

Any idea what it means that he avoided committed to flav's scumminess being contingent on mine?

Also:

What do you make of damo mentioning you in his reads the way he did?

[FlaviusAetius]

Thanks for not answering my question @bozo and @teacon

[bozotheclown]

@bozo I see Vash’s reaction to the flip but I’m having trouble seeing exactly what’s so incriminating about it. Seems like a lame joke to me more than anything else.

Yes, Vash hasn’t posted much and could be lurky scum, but I haven’t seen anything from him that couldn’t come from town. I don’t think we should lynch outside of Teacon/Xorxes right now because if we mislynch today, and then guess wrong on Teacon/Xorxes, we’re putting ourselves at lylo, or WCS teac/xorx is TvT and we lose the game.

I think Vashta's reaction is suspicious because it is contradictory to his actions at EOD, where he tried to save himself and get Durga lynched.

We lose the game only if Vashta, teacon, and xorxes are all town, something xorxes says is impossible. If we lynch Vashta, teacon, xorxes, and Flavius, we will win if the 2 scum are among those 4. Is there anyone else you currently would prefer to lynch before any of those 4?

Why are you all of a sudden gunho Vashta? Where were you when we were grilling teacon?
Those arguments you made weren't convincing, and now you are responding to everything!

Please clarify your questions. I voted for Vashta D2. What arguments are you talking about?

[bozotheclown]

Thanks for not answering my question @bozo and @teacon

Which question?

[teacon7]

Thanks for not answering my question @bozo and @teacon

yeah what are you talking about flav?

[bozotheclown]

I am still unsure on you and xorxes, but I am willing to lynch both of you in either order to find out. My preference is to lynch xorxes first, but that is not looking likely today.

I also would rather we lynched him first.

Why are you on vash rather than either of us?

@bozo

Any idea what it means that he avoided committed to flav's scumminess being contingent on mine?

Also:

What do you make of damo mentioning you in his reads the way he did?

I think there is a good chance Vashta is scum.

I do not know where xorxes did this, I know he has repeatedly said you are both scum.

I think damo was giving a bunch of vague reads to try to avoid getting any more votes. I strong scum read on a town at that point would risk that town jumping on his wagon. I think his read of me falls in this category.

[teacon7]

I do not know where xorxes did this, I know he has repeatedly said you are both scum.

He wrote it here, at the end of N2, on page 73:

aww thanks.

Seriously though, are you still saying either of us are contingent on each other? I'd love this to be on record tonight before another flip.

Hmm, I guess this means it's my turn now.

It's been fun, you've been a worthy opponent.

Lookit if you don't answer the question now, you'll be able to back off of flav later with relative ease.

I think you're avoiding the question now because committing to flav as scum is going to raise uncomfortable questions later.

If you're scum with flav, you want to be able to distance yourself from him by throwing shade. But not too much shade - you want to be able to back off later after I'm gone.

It's what he didn't say. He avoided the question twice. Why?

[teacon7]

I think damo was giving a bunch of vague reads to try to avoid getting any more votes. I strong scum read on a town at that point would risk that town jumping on his wagon. I think his read of me falls in this category.

Do you think the similarity of damo's reads to xorx' reads last game matter?

i.e., did X just get lucky, or was there legitimately something to the similarity?

[xorxes]

I did a full reread of teacon's D1 and realized that his vote for damo, though at first sight redeeming, was in fact pretty much forced by the statements he had made, so it didn't really get him off the hook.

I am not inclined to believe teacon would allow himself to be forced by his own statements to vote for damo as scum.

- He said he had voted for ND as a reaction test and not because he sumread him (he viewed ND's shennanigans as helpful to town).
- He had damo as a second tier scumread, which in his hierarchy meant somewhat scummy but not a good lynch for D1.

Both of those things he did well before he could foresee that the EOD would come to a choice beteen ND and damo.

What is hard to believe there? Which of those two things are hard to imagine that a scum teacon would do?

Then he posted his bizarrely long EON post where he mostly defends his actions from my case, while at the same time claiming to believe that I made the case as a ruse to fool scum into keeping me alive. The post also includes unabashed pocketing of ND and very weird reads of Vapor.

I do not see why the length of teacon's EON post is alignment indicative.

Length + content.

Did you read it? (Serious question. I was very tempted to skip it myself.)
Did it seem plausible to you that my case against him was a ploy to get scum not to kill me?
Does he seem genuine to you in his lengthy protestations that that's what he believed? (He didn't just say it once but insisted on that repeatedly.)
If he did believe that, is it plausible that he wrote such a long defense/explanation of his actions, when he didn't even think the case was for real?
Did you think his blatant buddying of ND was towny?
Did his reads of Vapor sound genuine? He stated later that he believed Vapor was the cop. Did you think Vapor was the cop? Do you think it was reasonable for him to spend so much effort letting us know that he believed Vapor was the cop?
There may have been other things that I don't recall atm.

[MoscowFleet]

##vote Xorxes

My main reasoning is how weak his case against Teacon is. Xorxes is very good at this game. I don't think it's possible he's been leading a crusade for 2 straight days as town on the back of this case. You can legit dismiss half of it as gut feel. The only reasonable part of it, to me anyways, is that Teacon has to some extent been doing the same thing he has accused xorxes of doing: misrepresenting things to fit his narrative. Now, if you guys are both scum that's a separate matter entirely. But assuming one of you is scum, it just means that one of you is town who is tunnelling a bit too much and getting caught up in confirmation bias. Which, as good as your records are, is possible.

Xorxes being scum also fits the NKs perfectly, as there's nobody more capable of pulling that off. It also aligns with my gut townread of Teacon day 1. So that's where I'm at right now. I really think we need to deal with this today so it stops dominating all discussion. If one of Percy, EMC, bozo, or ND are scum, they've basically had two days now where nobody has really given them any scrutiny. If we lynch Vash today and he flips town, that would be WCS, much worse than xorx or Teacon flipping town, because then at least things would clear up a bit.

[Percy Williams]

##Vote Xorxes

[ND]

I still think teacon is town althought to be honest I have been a little disinterested. I've had some other things going on and haven't been able to put a lot of time into it the past phase or two.

I think Vashta is the best lynched for today.

If you guys want to lynch me go ahead. I'll be checking the thread as I can. If I do get lynched then at some point you will want to lynch Vashta, Vapor/Flav, and probably Xorxes over Teacon. Xorxes town doesn't tunnel this hard. Something is wrong there.