M1007 — "Mafia, She Wrote" Game Thread

[Percy Williams]

@bozo why vashta over Durga? A Durga lynch reveals more information, and she is one of your scum reads.

[Percy Williams]

Hi there sneaking Xorxes!

[ND]

I wonder if my theory about Durga coming back the last hour saying snide stuff will be proven true. She literally has been gone for basically a 48 hour phase. Unacceptable. No way on God's green earth is she town.

[xorxes]

Also if xorxes wasn't on the right track, what reason do the mafia have to kill him? Let him be a suspect

Normally, town xorx is fairminded and considers a lot of possible angles, so even if he's on the wrong track n1 he could find someone d2.

Town xorx doesn't spend all night and day pushing one ridiculous lynch.

Does that description fit xorx here?

I don't remember any scum xorxes pushing a lynch like this. Scum xorxes is usually much more uncertain of his reads. Town xorxes can be pretty determined when he has found scum.

[xorxes]

@xorx - if you're wrong about teacon, would you say that it clears vapor and bozo?

I recall vapor following your lead on cases n1... which is weird, because he and I were on a lot the same page earlier.

If I'm wrong about teacon, almost anything could be true because I'm pretty sure I'm right about teacon. It's not like a slight suspicion or something like that, it's pretty near certainty by now.

I'm only slightly less certain about Vapor, but his last posts seem to confirm all my theories.

What do you make of him being roleblocked? It appears that the scumteam agreed with you that he was claiming to be the cop, right?

Why are you so sure Durga and Vashta are town? Is your certainty on Vapor based solely on teacon being scum?

I think it relies on teacon being scum, yes. I don't have any townreads of Durga or Vash, I'm just very certain about teacon and fairly certain about Vap/Flav.

[Foxcastle]

Vote Count 2.1

Durga (5) — ND, teacon7, Percy Williams, VashtaNeurotic, MoscowFleet
teacon7 (3) — xorxes, EspressoPatronum, FlaviusAetius
VashtaNeurotic (2) —Durga, bozotheclown

Durga is set to be lynched!

Just under 9 hours remain in Day 2.
e.m.c^42 must meet posting requirements and make a valid vote.

And, for those of you who +1'd me to over 300 (glory!), here is your reward.

[ND]

I think this is the hardest I've seen xorxes push. Ever.

But, I think he is wrong and again there is a better case to be made on Durga.

[xorxes]

It is not helping alleviate my suspicion of you that instead of addressing my concerns from this game, you are just saying you would not bus the GF and implying I have a bias against you from M35. We have been in ten games together since:
M36: We were both town, I did not scum read you.
M39: We were both town, I did not scum read you.
M40: I was scum.
M1005: I was town, you were scum, I was sure you were scum by the time you NKed me.
M1006: We were both town, and we suspected each other by the end of the game, but I only voted for you for 3 minutes on the last day.
M41: We were both town, I did not scum read you.
M42: I was town, you were scum, I scum read you and voted for you by D2.
M43: We were both town, I did not scum read you.
M44: I was town, you were scum, I suspected you by D2 but I did not vote for you when you were lynched.
M45: We were both scum.

So in the five games since M35 where we were both town, the only time I suspected you were scum was on D5 of M1006, and I only voted for you for 3 minutes over those 5 games. Where is the evidence that I have a bias against you, or that I have not been objective toward you in the past, so that it is possible for me to be "more objective here"?

By the way, in the four games where I was town and suspected you were scum, you turned out to be scum in three of the four games.

OK, what exactly are your concerns that I have not addressed?

As I told you before, I was not paying much attention to damo until I saw that read that he copied from me. Once I saw it, I had very little doubt that he was scum and I set out to lynch him. Of course I knew you and rivera suspected damo because you were voting for him. "The growing suspicion of damo could have led xorxes to start bussing him." You reall believe that's what I would do as scum? I see damo has two votes, I find something that nobody else was likely to notice but me, but once I pointed it out I thought would leave no doubt in anyone's mind that damo was scum (there I was completely wrong because absolutely no one else thought it was meaningful, I must be weird that way), so I out the evidence that nobody else would likely find, I lynch the godfather, and then use that gained towncred to push hard for a lynch of town!teacon D2 (presumably to save Durga, who when she saw me bussing damo had no better idea than try to save him and expose herself, otherwise if she is town why on earth would I bother with teacon when everybody else seems all to happy to lynch Durga?), and if I'm wrong about teacon it will guareantee my lynch on D3 (or maybe you think I may be bussing teacon as well, so I will gain even more towncred?). Is that what you think is going on? Two dead scum dead by D3 in exchange for mislynching teacon? Really? Come on, really? Is that the story you are seeing?

Why were you not paying much attention to damo? Why were you not paying attention to anyone who was scum reading damo? Why would a scum damo deliberately copy a read from a previous game? Why is it impossible that a town damo deliberately copied a read from a previous game? Why did you seem oblivious to why anyone else besides you was voting for damo?

As for everything else, I do not know the alignment of Durga or teacon, what I find questionable has nothing to do with what their alignment turns out to be.

I wasn'tvpaying much attention to damo because he said something I thought was townie and I was focusing on emc at the time. You will have to ask damo why he copied the read. If you are trying to figure out a robbery and someone finds a footprint that could be incriminating, someone else finds a fingerprint, and then you find a security camera footage with the culprit caught in the act you don't care about the footprints and fingerprints. I obviously overestimated people's understanding of how language works, but teacon was the most surprising, especially after the lesson he gave on syntax. It was blindingly obvious to me that the read was a copy, and town doesn't copy reads from another game.

[xorxes]

OK, I'm dead tonight.

Doc probably don't save me, you could be needed to save the cop later, and I will die N2 if you do anyway. (Or maybe do save me, just to keep the scum guessing )

Cop don't scan someone who will die early.

My top candidate for scum at the moment is teacon, but that's just a hunch.

Besides you basically telling the cop not to scan you, you state that your scum read of teacon is "just a hunch". Now you have an elaborate case on teacon and you are nearly certain he is scum. What has elevated your certainty about teacon?

The hunch was right after the flip. Then I did a full reread. Then came the EON thing that was practically a signed confession . Then his defense full of bs and trying to paint me as scummy.

[xorxes]

Wow, nice! Very surprised at the turn of events - Damo wasn't on my radar at all.

Good call @Xorxes and the others who made it happen last minute. I'll have to go comb through the past few pages to see how you figured it out. Was it just the one post re: bozo's play, or was there more?

Nobody but me voted him for that, so there must have been something else.

Did you really have no idea why anyone else was scum reading damo and only know that there must have been some other reason because no one else seemed to think what you pointed out confirmed damo as scum?

That was partly frustration that nobody else saw the obvious, Im sure I read what your reasons were but I couldn't repeat them now and I'm on phone so not bothering to check.

[xorxes]

# of damo's posts in response to people:

Vapor: 4
teacon: 4
bozo: 2
xorxes: 2
emc: 1
everyone else: 0

If I'm right about teacon, I wouldn't be surprized if the other one is Vapor or bozo.

Why would you think this is a good indication that I could be scum if damo responded to two of your posts also? Did you read the responses? Why would it not surprise you that I was bussing the GF?

It was just a comment, nothing too serious. And one of the responses was about the username change.

[xorxes]

That is because a read that was similar to something you said in another game was far from the most suspicious thing from damo D1. You ignored my comments about damo's contradictory yet confident scum read of ND and the weak reasons he gave for scum reading you and rdrivera, but jumped on him for the wording of this one read. As I pointed out, that was not even the most suspicious thing from that damo post, all of his reads were vague and he backed off on his scum reads of you and rdrivera.

Yeah, I wasn't paying much attention to damo at all until I saw that read. I had him in my mind as weak townlean because he had said something somewhat sensible about my early read of emc.

Can you point to the sensible thing damo said about your read of emc?

I think it was his first post, I gave him townie points for it.

[xorxes]

[qute=xorxes post_id=77650 time=1558142986 user_id=229]


If I'm right about teacon, I wouldn't be surprized if the other one is Vapor or bozo.

This sounds like what I was doing last game to try to make some town members look suspicious, but with a much smaller sample size. I find it hard to believe that you would really think has any use in identifying scum.

I was hoping someone other than you would notice...

But, when you iso damo, it's really striking how few people he interacted with. Damo plays a very shy scum, so I really would not be surprized if he limited his interactions to his teammates.

On what games are you basing this assessment of damo's scum play?
[/quote]

I don't recall any in particular, but I'm sure I have caught him before.

[xorxes]

[qute=xorxes post_id=77650 time=1558142986 user_id=229]


If I'm right about teacon, I wouldn't be surprized if the other one is Vapor or bozo.

This sounds like what I was doing last game to try to make some town members look suspicious, but with a much smaller sample size. I find it hard to believe that you would really think has any use in identifying scum.

I was hoping someone other than you would notice...

But, when you iso damo, it's really striking how few people he interacted with. Damo plays a very shy scum, so I really would not be surprized if he limited his interactions to his teammates.

On what games are you basing this assessment of damo's scum play?
[/quote]

I don't recall any in particular, but I'm sure I have caught him before.

[xorxes]

My vote on Percy is obvious no longer for pressure, I'm not pleased with what he offered so far.

I'm all for lynching Percy today. But I'll move to damo if it's between him and ND. What are you going to do?

It does not seem likely teacon as scum would lock himself into voting for damo over ND when they were the top wagons.

No, but if I'm not mistaken this was a restatement of things he had said before, so he was already locked at this point. Check me on that.

[teacon7]

It does not seem likely teacon as scum would lock himself into voting for damo over ND when they were the top wagons.

Agree. That's why xorx convoluted case is so suspect. Like... he has every right to make a case on people, but this one is such a stretch.


@bozo you might be a good person to ask this as well.
Under what conditions would scum bus (vote+lynch) their godfather D1?

I think most people agree it's bad scum play, but the question is asking what circumstances would make it a reasonable choice.

[teacon7]

I'm going to go ahead and give teacon the benefit of the doubt for now and ##vote Durga. Perhaps my vote would be different if I had the time to reread but this will have to do for now. I think Durga has a pretty good chance to flip scum, given her voting day 1.

Thanks man.

For all I'm arguing with xorx, I do think durga is the right one to lynch today.
When you get back, I'd appreciate your impressions of our conversation. Not just the merits of the case, but in how we're arguing. If we end up being TvT I think we'll both be pretty annoyed. Lend us some perspective on this.

[teacon7]

OK, I'll work with that. So you think a Durga-xorxes team is consistent with the evidence.

It's one option. I'm not sold on it because I still can't figure out why you'd bus so hard. I'm ruminating on a writeup about it.

@xorx btw, did you answer my question about durga?
What do you think of durga?
Why isn't she here today?

Something inevitably comes up for me in RL, I'm not around to defend myself, and get ML'd D3.

You get mislynched after having been saved by the doc? Is this a joke or are you not even trying anymore?

Not a joke, but maybe an appeal to RL probabilities. I'm at work a lot, and sometimes things come up. If I'm not around to chat/answer/respond, there's a chance someone leads a lynch on me. You asked a question about "how would this play out" which is... idk, telling the future? Not information that's available to me. The way things are now, I think if I disappeared for RL reasons, you'd lead a lynch on me. That's all.

Only thing left to confirm now is whether Vapor/Flavius is indeed yoiur partner.

This looks a lot like deliberate wifom, to protect/indict him in the event you swing. But since you haven't yet flipped, I'm not going to argue that, because we shouldn't put the cart before the xorx.

...it's a pun guys. I crack myself up. ...no? okay.

I'll be happy to entertain a FlaVapor lynch later on. My townread on him earlier was based on an (incorrect) guess about him being PR. I even said that in my massive EoN reads... (I got a "powerful" town vibe: PR). I'm not sure the case against flav/vapor has more merit than one against you, but let's take a look.

Did you have any questions for Flav?

[teacon7]

Of course your vote for damo is NAI, because it was forced, it gives us zero info.

Of course the towny course of action was to vote for damo. That's why as scum you had to vote for him because otherwise you would look scummy. The only scummy part of the vote is that it took you so long to do it, and that you were so reluctant, not the vote itself.

The point here is obviously not "teacon is scum because he voted for damo", the point here is "teacon's vote for damo does not really give him towncred, because as scum his other choices were even worse for him".

The case against you is obviously not based on this vote, and it is interesting that you try to make it look like it is.

I see what you're saying.

This doesn't seem consistent with what you've been saying before.

It sounds an awful lot like you're basing the majority of your case on scumreading me for moving. If you're not, then please explain - where does your case really come from. Do you have any hard data? Any other vibe that isn't confirmation bias of a "hunch" about EoD? Am I missing some other point you've made? Why are you ignoring durga, her shady movement EoD1, her suspicious absence today, her unwillingness to join a damo lynch to avoid a tie, her late call against percy?

Did she say she wanted to lynch xorxes to get your attention? hah. that'd be great.

Have I been trying to garner towncred for the damo lynch?

I recall saying that durga shouldn't be giving you sole credit for the damo lynch. I think vapor gave you credit too.

The same dynamic should work both ways. @xorxes, are you claiming towncred for lynching the godfather?

[teacon7]

I have shown why your vote does not really exonerate you because it was pretty much forced.
The fact you won't even admit that your vote was pretty much forced is also telling.

You're Affirming the Consequent here. It's a logical fallacy.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Affirming_the_consequent

Affirming the consequent, sometimes called converse error, fallacy of the converse, or confusion of necessity and sufficiency, is a formal fallacy of taking a true conditional statement (e.g., "If the lamp were broken, then the room would be dark,") and invalidly inferring its converse ("The room is dark, so the lamp is broken,") even though the converse may not be true. This arises when a consequent ("the room would be dark") has one or more other antecedents (for example, "the lamp is not plugged in" or "the lamp is in working order, but is switched off").

Converse errors are common in everyday thinking and communication and can result from, among other causes, communication issues, misconceptions about logic, and failure to consider other causes.

What? You think the vote does exonerate him? What are you talking about?

Here, I'm pointing out the faulty logic, that's all.

My question : "under what conditions would scum bus (vote + lynch) their godfather" implies that there are conditions in which you'd do this. You have given an answer (more or less: "the vote was forced").

It sounds like you're arguing:
- teacon moved
- because teacon is scum, teacon's gf vote was forced
- ergo teacon is scum

I'm pointing out the invalid logic. You put the conclusion in your minor premise, which is post hoc ergo propter hoc (or affirming the consequent, I can't remember which). You're not accounting for other causes for the major premise.

fwiw, I don't think a vote for the godfather exonerates anyone. It does make it significantly less likely that someone is scum. If you were pushing me this hard and HADN'T pushed damo, I'd be a lot more confident you were scum. As is, I'm still ruminating on my answer to the question: under what conditions would scum bus/vote/lynch their godfather.

@xorx
a) Does voting for the godfather exonerate teacon?
b) Does voting for the godfather exonerate xorxes?