M1007 — "Mafia, She Wrote" Game Thread

[bozotheclown]

No! I trust the cop to be smart enough to leave a clear indication of his scan without revealing himself.

Besides, it's not obvious that the cop should scan tonight. It depends a lot on who they are and how exposed they are.

I do not see any reason the cop would not want to maximize the chance of getting their scan in by using it tonight.

It's a trade-off. The earlier the scan, the greater the chances it is useless: on someone that dies early, or that is the doc, or that becomes obvtown on their own, etc. The longer they wait, the greater the chances they never get a scan.

That's why it depends a lot on who the cop is. If I am the cop I'm obviously scanning tonight, but if it's someone with low chance of being lynched/NKd, they may choose to wait and get more info on who would be a useful scan.

But you already knew this, so why are you asking?

I didn't ask anything, I disagreed with your statement that "it's not obvious that the cop should scan tonight".

[ND]

Alright boys it's been fun. Refer back to EOD Analysis if I die.

Lynch Derpna today 100% guarantee it.

[bozotheclown]

Vashta and Durga both went for the easy lynch of ND, who was trying to draw votes, and defended damo. It is hard to believe both remaining scum would do this, but you never know. I still get the feeling damo was bussing xorxes, and xorxes decided to return the bussing for some reason. xorxes/Percy would make semnse, maybe even xorxes/Durga. If xorxes survived the NK and I do not, be careful of xorxes claiming the scum are doing it for WIFOM to get him lynched.

[teacon7]

Here's my copypasta wall 'o text for EoN1.

I'm posting this now in case I die. I may have to break it up into a couple chunks, depending on the forums character limit per post.

I was silent this phase *on purpose.*

(also, I'm taking a break from a Saturday f2f board game party to post this, so there's also that. I don't often get the chance to play Firefly the Board Game.).

I think xorx is town. He pushed damo, voted damo, especially when he had other options. This by itself ought to be evidence enough for his towniness.

I don't think xorx was the only reason we caught damo.

I'm not alone in this read.

I think xorx also wants to live to D2. reasonable. He's a common N1 NK choice for, well, obvious reasons. maybe he and HR should start a club.

I think town Xorx made a poor case on me tonight to make himself seem useful to scum. I support his town!xorxes' move here. I remained silent because I wanted to see what N1 discussion would do without me.

Hey look: Xorx' case + my absence generated some information:
-vapor hopped on. espresso hopped on.
-ND and bozo and rdriv don't seem to be buying it. towncred.
-durga is largely avoiding commentary on it.

Don't remember what vash is doing with this. I should probably re-read.

I hope I didn't draw a scan. I'd rather the scan was used for someone with less information out there, like percy or vash or espresso.

I'm hoping that by posting my massive copypasta here now we can work through why xorx will walk back his "case" on me, if he lives. Actually, I'm hoping he's crossposting some reads that basically townread me, but I'm writing this copypasta ahead of time so I have no way of knowing.


/I think town xorx pushed a fake case on me N1, thinking newbie scum would spare./
/We should look into the people who supported xorx' lame case against me N1./



Here goes some beginning answers. I'm putting this together late saturday night CST, and editing as I'm able. While cleaning house for a party.

OK, I'm dead tonight.

Doc probably don't save me, you could be needed to save the cop later, and I will die N2 if you do anyway. (Or maybe do save me, just to keep the scum guessing )

Cop don't scan someone who will die early.

My top candidate for scum at the moment is teacon, but that's just a hunch.

This is some high quality reaction to an awesome flip. If I'm right, then town!xorx thought this through rather quickly.

Teacon, that's interesting. You think that makes him more scum xorx?

He was very reluctant to vote for damo until I pressured him.

Reluctant, yes. I didn't move because of xorx' pressure though. Moscow put it well:

Dude. I think you’re making this a much bigger deal than it needs to be. You really think he went back, found your read list as scum, and decided to copy it as scum?

Now that being said, he hasn’t done anything to convince me he’s town so I’m down for his lynch if there’s nothing better. But not specifically for what you’re bringing up.

Wait, bozo did too:

@bozo, what do you make of this? Are you scum this game? what does that tell us about xorxes and damo? plz weigh in so we can lynch scum. thanks.

I do not think the similarity to xorxes means anything, but damo is still my top scum suspect for other reasons. I am not scum this game.

in fact, it's a little silly for xorx to be given sole credit for lynching damo. He had a stronger read than everyone else, I think, but tbf there were other reasons to scumread damo:

-I think lurking is NAI, but low investment posting *is* alignment indicative, because it's an attempt to "stay off the radar" by participation but no commitment. hedging is another way to try to stay off the radar. In my read so far, the former describes percy pretty well, the latter describes emc and damo.

Seriously what scum busses their godfather D1?



1) I moved at exactly 15 minutes to EoD.
vote tracker: http://mafia.peterlund.se/e/web/vote_tr ... 1007&day=1

There's now way for anyone else to verify this, but I did move at exactly 15 mins out on purpose. I waited because I wanted to see what scum would do. I didn't move because xorx or anyone else pressured me.


2) I called for emc to vote first (Recall that I scumread emc). I didn't want him tying the lynch after I'd moved, and I wanted time to react if scum tried crazy thigs. See:

@emc
you have yet to vote. let's do this.

emc I think you'd better vote

::i vote here::

now
@emc - you gotta vote.

@those note (edit: not) on ND/damo - move.

3) I explicitly said that I'd vote damo if percy didn't move:

My vote on Percy is obvious no longer for pressure, I'm not pleased with what he offered so far.

I'm all for lynching Percy today. But I'll move to damo if it's between him and ND. What are you going to do?

This is consistent with my earlier lynch pool, which included percy > damo=emc




4) I waited so long to move because I wanted to see if scum would try to generate other wagons. I even noted this in the post where I voted:

BUT attendant to this circumstance:
I'm mildly unsettled that durga tried to start two other wagons in the last hour or so of the day. one on xorx, another on percy. Why is she keen to abandon ND? why not move to damo to break the tie?

More on durga later. She's really the only person who tried to create movement.

He tried to misrepresent the evidence I had against damo by insisting on what he said as opposed to how he said it, which was the important part. (Durga and Moscow did the same to some extent, but for some reason teacon rubbed me the worst way.)

nah. I just disagreed. I thought xorx was reading too much into damo's similar-phrasing of things. projection, maybe. I was wrong.

It was clear to me that damo respects xorx, and was reading his past games to try to emulate good scum play. Hence I asked (emphasis added):

You really think he just copy/pasted off of your reads from last game? that just seems so... I dunno. lazy? obvious? complimentary?

Quantitative questions:
How many games has damo played?
How many of them were you, xorxes, on the winning team for?

My suggestion here was that damo respects xorx and when he randed scum, tried to emulate xorx's winning scum game. I asked quantitative questions to try to but some flesh on the bones of that theory. If damo played a lot of games with xorx, and xorx won a lot of those games, it makes sense that damo would look to emulate him.

Good idea in general damo, but ... well... maybe next time damo don't try to fake xorx with xorx' own methods. ... lol

He kept trying to bring the discussion to policy lynches instead of finding scum. rivera helped him with this, but again teacon rubbed me the wrong way more.

xorx is right here, to some extent. I did bring up the word "policy" multiple times, and advocated a certain kind of policy lynch. I did differentiate between policying lurkers and policying "useless," "low-commitment" or "hedgy" "participation-posters". definitions of useless varied in this discussion - I don't see ND's play as useless, but others did.

Look at ND's GLORIOUS EoD analysis. He more or less did what I said he was doing:


I said that Vash is...

mostly just harping on ND for playing lightning rod early d1. it's the "look, an easy wagon" approach.

So my policy was: let's try to find people who are acting scummy. useless low-investment participation-posting is scummy. the policy looks like a "useless" policy, but hey - it had predictive power. damo was scum. more on that scumhunting theory later.

Wow, nice! Very surprised at the turn of events - Damo wasn't on my radar at all.

Good call @Xorxes and the others who made it happen last minute. I'll have to go comb through the past few pages to see how you figured it out. Was it just the one post re: bozo's play, or was there more?

Nobody but me voted him for that, so there must have been something else.

Yep. I actually only scumleaned damo, for reasons different than xorx says. see above.

aww, you left me out.
Also: thanks for being more verbose. keep it coming.

I'd already talked about you (and vapor) previously and had no change to report.

Btw I don't like verbosity for it's own sake.

He had said "teacon sounds town" and "I only said sounds town. Didn't townclear lol." about teacon, but I can't find anything said about Vapor.

@Vapor: why didn't you notice this?
@teacon: why didn't you notice this?

tbf, this looks darn incriminating to both vapor and myself. It's like scum vapor forgot to list his two buddies in reads. I pointed out that he left me out of his list because I didn't want anyone buddying me, but I totally didn't notice that he'd left out vapor from that list.

I've been townreading vapor since his first few posts, and I know I'm town, so this didn't raise too many red flags for me, but I totally understand if it does for you guys. maybe cop should scan vapor to find out.

@all - could we be the first game ever to listen to a dead player's reads? I remain hopeful that someday this will happen.

OK, I'm dead tonight.

My top candidate for scum at the moment is teacon, but that's just a hunch.

I think this is darn funny whether xorx is town or scum. plz be giving reads xorx, I think you'll die tonight regardless of the town theatre.







Town theatre did produce results. This isn't a full reading, as I had to give up this copypasta midway through.

Who joined Xorx's case on me? This could be good. I suspect xorx doesn't believe what he says about me.


Vapor joins in.

page 28, 29 has teacon and Moscow defending damo

probably 1 scum if not both

hm. we both ended up lynching damo though.
Which one of us broke a tie in favor of damo?
moscow hopped on LAST, when the lynch was certain.
I jumped on because (as I said before) I'd move to a second-tier-scumread-damo instead of ND.

note: I'm not rly sure how to do the proper quotes on the forum, so I'll just do them normally and leave it to you guys to make sure I've quoted teacon accurately.

hit the quote mark button at the top right of the post, next to the name of the person you're quoting.

fyi - I took only the relevant material from his posts.

This reads as "I'm going to cherrypick" which... is bad research. #teachertroubles

1 - Inconsistent Stance on Policy Voting
Page 27 - teacon wrote, “-rdriv points out that we should be finding scum rather than info lynches. I agree. I asked about info lynches b/c I wanted to know who we think is/isn't providing info.” and also, “-ND points out that calling for {policy lynch based on useless playstyle} is scummy. Agree.”

Despite claiming he was against policy lynches, his vote was for either ND or Percy for ~2/3 of D1. He had his vote on ND and Percy until switching to Damo at the end.

Yeah you're right to notice this. I did a several things:
1) I asked about policy lynching lurkers. I didn't do that because I want to policy a lurker D1, but I wanted to get reactions from potentially-new players. Advocating lurker-lynch policy is scummy. Asking about it is just fishing.
2) I advocated for a different sort of policy, as did you: lacking much real information D1, I suggested that we could policy lynch someone with low investment posting. See my post to rdriv here:

http://webdiplomacy.net/contrib/phpBB3/ ... 438#p77438

It seems like these quotes address the common theme of policy lynches. whether you're policy lynching a lurker, or policy-lynching a useless player, it's still a policy lynch.
-rdriv points out that we should be finding scum rather than info lynches. I agree. I asked about info lynches b/c I wanted to know who we think is/isn't providing info.
-ND points out that calling for {policy lynch based on useless playstyle} is scummy. Agree.
-I think lurking is NAI, but low investment posting *is* alignment indicative, because it's an attempt to "stay off the radar" by participation but no commitment. hedging is another way to try to stay off the radar. In my read so far, the former describes percy pretty well, the latter describes emc and damo.

.
.
.
Meanwhile, EP continues....

2 - Last-Minute Flip
Page 29 - “I'm all for lynching Percy today. But I'll move to damo if it's between him and ND. What are you going to do?”

Page 30 - “In my experience, scum rarely pile on the same wagon at EoD. In fact, I don't think I've ever seen it happen.”

Page 31 - “alright. ##vote damo.”

This looks like he was pre-empting a flip AND trying to soften the blow if anyone called him on it. It might be genuine, but it looks more scum than town to me.

This argument only makes sense if scum!teacon planned ahead and chose to bus the godfather when he could have gone for ND. Does that seem likely? even if ND is hooker, is that likely?

I've explained my EoD thought process above to xorxes. I wanted to see who would try to move around.


















Now let's get to some actual scumreads.

Question to the more experienced players, how sus is last minute voting? Flipping last minute is usually rly shady in person, but I'm also getting the vibe that forum EOD is always busy.

In any case, the people who went on Damo closest to the end were EMC, Teacon, and Moscow. Might be worth keeping an eye on them on D2.

This is a good, real question. EP I'm glad you're playing, even if we have to lynch you.

EoD hopping is certainly worth looking into.
4) ND voted damo in self defense. that's NAI
3) I jumped on damo because I scumread him, and percy wasn't taking off. I took a while to get there because I was a) wating for emc, and b) wanted to see what others would do first. damo at +1 over ND
2) emc votes damo after me, giving damo +2 over ND
1) moscow jumps on at the very very endf or +3 over ND

e.m.c might not be scum after all, I can't see him buss the GF, it's not really his style as far as I remember

Would scum!anyone you know bus their godfather in this situation? I think the most ruthless is likely durga, and even then I don't see her doing that. It's a solidly bad move.


The only reason would be if it's already a settled lynch:

e.m.c might not be scum after all, I can't see him buss the GF, it's not really his style as far as I remember

He was already practically lynched by the time emc voted.

Not quite. emc could have tied the vote, but he didn't.
I think he's smart enough to avoid that as scum.

Which means that maybe scum!emc piles on and busses the godfather. Or scum!moscow jumps on right at the end because there's nothing else to do. I didn't really scumread moscow, and I still don't, but it's worth looking into.





We need to look at durga.

EoD shennanigans begin on page 27.

VC says we're at:
ND (4)
damo (3)
percy (2)

I've just indicated that my lynch pool is percy / emc / damo

vapor says ...same.


At T-1:51 to EoD1, Durga says:

We should honestly just lynch xorxes he's totally scum

...why? ...why then?

Can we push the deadline back

...why does she want to do this? She's off by an hour, but ND's set to swing.

ND then votes for damo.

When is EoD?? Is it in 2 minutes???

...when she posts this, it's T-1:02 to EoD1. votes are tied. there's an hour left. I read her as concerned about avoid a tie vote, or maybe manufactured alarm in order to increase frenetic thinking at EoD.
I highly doubt she forgot when EoD was. She's smarter than that.
Normally, I'd think he was concerned about a tie, but then as EoD approaches...

Her next post is:

Anyone wanna switch to Percy with me?

...at T-0:26 minutes to EoD1

damo is set to swing. why is she abandoning ND (her top top scumread, recall), to start join a percy wagon?

I ask:

I'm mildly unsettled that durga tried to start two other wagons in the last hour or so of the day. one on xorx, another on percy. Why is she keen to abandon ND? why not move to damo to break the tie?

She answers:

GOD forbid I try to create some movement and want to get one of my scum reads lynched. Damo is a null, he's pretty sus when he's town too so I don't know. I'm not *keen* to abandon ND, I'd love ND being lynched. I don't want to lynch damo because I'm not as sure about him. Teacon are you scum?

If that isn't the hedgiest set of reasons to defend damo.
>"damo is a nulle, he's suspicious as town too"
>"I just don't want to lynch damo."
>"NO U"

I asked then, and I'll ask now:

If you wanted percy lynched you were more than welcome to move anytime earlier in the day. You'd have joined me on it. Why now, at the end of the day?

I briefly wondered whether the wagons at EoD1 were scum vs scum. I really want it to be ND-durga scum theatre, but there's also this one.

I do think that Damo should be the lynch today, not necessarily for those highlighted reasons, but because of his actions. I haven't seen anything that he has done that has been town indicative.

Then also there's ND's glorious analysis on page 39, which shows he saw things a lot the same way I did.

possible durga scum accomplices are:
fellforxorx'ploy!espresso
didn'twanttobus!emc
BuddiedMe!Moscow
longshot!genius!ND
cloakofuselessness!vash


-----

but any of those things will have to wait for D2 and potential copscans, etc.

if i die and xorx lives, there's at least one experienced, has-played-with-teacon player on the scumteam

if xorx dies and I live, smh sorry man.

if neither of us die, LOL

if I live through N1 I'll of course respond to questions

if my wall o' text is incomplete cos it was typed up during an actual late night... ask me for clarification I'd be glad to help.

------



Reads (if it matters, no one ever looks at a dead man's reads)

bozotheclown - town - He voted damo. pushing + bussing your GF early D1 is dumb, bozo isn't.
Durga - scum. see case above. EoD1 shennanigans. tough luck. :/
e.m.c^42 - slight scum - general hedginess, EoD1 reticence + shennanigans
EspressoPatronum - scumlean for playing it "safe" d1, but it's hard to tell b/c he's got a newbie pass. He's smart, but realizes he's in new territory. Could be scum with durga. He's buying xorx' N1 fake case on me, which... from my perspective looks like scum.
MoscowFleet - slight scum - he took a long time to move to damo, and only moved after it was a done deal. scum!moscow bussed, but only under duress.
ND - town or genius!scum. I almost wish he was scum so my scum theatre guess would be right. If something goes haywire, we ought to look into his rather manic reactions to the flip - could that be mystery scum theater 3000?
Percy Williams - scumlean. no offense, but he hasn't contributed original thoughts. that's where scum hide effectively.
rdrivera2005 - town. he voted damo. pushing + bussing your GF early D1 is dumb, rdriv isn't.
teacon7 - town. heck, this is probably my towniest game to date.
Vaporwave - town. I got powerful town vibes from his first few posts, and right or wrong have been sheeping him since.
VashtaNeurotic - scumlean. I like this meta from him better than what I saw back in the 20's, but he's still doing participation-posting. this is where scum hide effectively. The fact that vash is articulate but not pushing anyhting means he's trying to stay off radars.
xorxes - town. he's not dumb enough to push + bus his GF that ruthlessly on D1.

lynch order:

durga >>>> EP > moscow > percy = vash = emc >>>>>> bozo = xorx = ND = rdriv > !vapor



tl;dr:
xorx' case on me is fake news on purpose, because xorx likes playing past n1.
I support it, but I'm posting reads at EoN just in case.
ND is playing well
durga is scum

[Foxcastle]

====Phase has ended, please hold======

[Foxcastle]

Billy, the Inn’s all-purpose employee who did everything from maintenance to bell-hopping, hung up the phone and tried to get the room’s attention.

“Everybody! Hey everybody!”

But the lobby of the Cabot Cove Inn was still buzzing with activity and accusations of murder and theft and Billy’s cries barely registered.

“Hey! Everybody! Mrs. Fletcher and the Sheriff are on their way!”

The crowd calmed down slightly, shooting dark glares across the lobby at whoever they suspected most.

A few minutes later there was a screeching sound and a crash from outside!

They all ran outside, where a blue Buick with out-of-state plates had plowed into the picket fence of Mr. Claybough’s yard that sat next to the Inn. The driver’s door was open, but whoever had been behind the wheel was long gone.

Jessica and Sheriff Tupper ran up from where the Sheriff’s patrol truck had been hastily parked.

“My goodness, what happened here! Is everyone okay?” Jessica asked.

One of the Inn patrons who had gathered at the scene screamed and pointed. In the wreckage was a body.

RDRIVERA2005 HAS DIED. He was Lawrence Corbett, the Cop!

=====Day 2 has begun, you may post=====

[Durga]

That really sucks.

Also teacon nice try but the shit I did wasn't actually scummy if you look at it from the perspective that I don't know damo's alignment. And why would I lie about when I thought EoN was lmao. How is any of that scummy

[ND]

RIP RD

[Durga]

"ND is playing well durga is scum"

Is this the bed you're going to die on

[Durga]

"ND is playing well" has to be the scummiest thing I've ever heard

[Vaporwave]

Oh no rivera as cop

how did they manage to figure it out?

[ND]

bye Drugna you are the weakest and scummiest player in this game.

##VOTE DURGA

*Lock her up!*

[ND]

Oh no rivera as cop

how did they manage to figure it out?

Couple things could explain it. Immediate reactions is they got lucky or we are dealing with some good players and not noobs

[Durga]

bye Drugna you are the weakest and scummiest player in this game.

##VOTE DURGA

*Lock her up!*

Thx I know you target me bc of my gender but here's the proof I guess

[Vaporwave]

is Durga great at acting? cause her reactions were so realistic

[Vaporwave]

given how quickly they found the cop, I bet Espresso or teacon are part of the scum team

[ND]

bye Drugna you are the weakest and scummiest player in this game.

##VOTE DURGA

*Lock her up!*

Thx I know you target me bc of my gender but here's the proof I guess

Oh no, don't play that on me. I meant to say the weakest link it's a game show reference. Seriously, let's leave your social justice stuff out of game, ok? I don't have time for that nonsense.

[Durga]

Why are you assuming they knew he was a cop. Rdr is a decent NK option. Xorx is off the table because of the potential doc save. Rdr was not scum read by anyone, he was not a lynch candidate.

[Durga]

bye Drugna you are the weakest and scummiest player in this game.

##VOTE DURGA

*Lock her up!*

Thx I know you target me bc of my gender but here's the proof I guess

Oh no, don't play that on me. I meant to say the weakest link it's a game show reference. Seriously, let's leave your social justice stuff out of game, ok? I don't have time for that nonsense.

You literally said "lock her up" so no, you brought politics and your own hatred of women into it, so fuck you ND you garbage human being

[Vaporwave]

I can also see Moscow doing his fake 'maybe they will NK' and I'm like that was so fake, why would town Moscow feel targeted? there was xorxes, ND rivera, bozo who were mega townie and actively pushed for damo

he felt completely fake to me, his pop-in last 2 minute to jump on damo was also try-hard

and his intensity this game is to be noted. Town Moscow is light and easy to get along with. Scum Moscow is ruthless and a powerwolf