ODC 2019 Tournament Start

[VillageIdiot]

The format would lend itself to that.

SoS does leave little incentive for minority players to fight on and making it a ranked game only factors in for WebDip natives while participating guests don’t care about loss of rating on a foreign site. Makes revenge play a lot more appealing.

[Claesar]

The format would lend itself to that.

SoS does leave little incentive for minority players to fight on and making it a ranked game only factors in for WebDip natives while participating guests don’t care about loss of rating on a foreign site. Makes revenge play a lot more appealing.

GR factors in the scoring system, so finishing on one centre in SoS doesn't do much good for your rating either.

[Durga]

That one center can make or break your ranking

[swordsman3003]

That one center can make or break your ranking

The tension here is that making it into Round 2 is a binary condition.

Let's say I have 50 points from game 1 (let's assume this to be an amount that leaves me uncertain about whether I will qualify for Round 2). Let's say that in game 2, my options are A) fight for a draw where I get 0.1 point and three other players get 30 points each; and B) throw the match.

Helping 3 other players attain 30 points creates 3 chances of vaulting another player above my 50 points from game 1 (3 chances to be disqualified from Round 2). Each of them that earned between 20.11 and and 49.99 points in round 1 now places ahead of me. However, my qualification ranking is unaffected if they had a score from game 1 outside that range.

Helping 1 player attain 100 points ensures that the winning player will place ahead of me in the qualification rankings, but if that player already has more than 50.1 points from game 1, there is no consequence to my chances of qualifying for Round 2.

Here's the questions I ask myself:

• If I create the draw, what are the chances that I've vaulted at least 1 player ahead of me in qualifying for Round 2?

• If I create a solo win, what are the chances that I've vaulted that winner ahead of me in qualifying for Round 2? (Remember, if the winner already has >50.1 points, I haven't hurt my ranking.)

If those chances are about equal, then I might prefer to throw the match. With the draw, I could knock myself down 2 or even 3 ranks in qualifying for Round 2.

Those chances aren't easy to figure out, but I would still think about this.

[Claesar]

Swordsman is completely right of course. You have to figure out who in your game is already locked for the next round and then throw the solo to them!

[Odo the Great]

It goes even further than what Swordsman argues. Assuming no knowledge of standings or anything, it's always advantageous to throw if you own a number of sc's below a certain threshold. This threshold is especially high because of the squaring of points. Furthermore, a draw easily involves >= 3 players in Diplomacy, putting a lot of players ahead of you as a minor power. If you are destined to score low in your game in a multiple player draw (for example below advancing), you drastically increase your probability of advancing by throwing a game. For example, if in your other game you might hold a position of significant value. As then, for the final score, you have a higher chance to advance, as other players you frustrated with your throw, can also only maximally have one other scored game.

That's why I really don't agree with Claesar and Magnetic, who say the solos are the result of a weak field of players - or large skill disparity. If anything, the high number of throws are evidence of smart players that have carefully read and thought about the tournament scoring system.

[Brumark]

The bit I would add to Swordsmans comments it that generally the situation is not a choice between a solo and and an even distribution of points (yes absolutely in some games) but generally it is in the situation asymmetry with a grand alliance facing a board leader in which case one player may already be above the 50 points used in the example.

Assuming you are a player getting one of the fewest points, the choice is then pretty simple and allowing the solo is the optimal outcome for chances of your own personal progression - i.e. if the board topper is guaranteed to finish above you, much better he/she gathers all the points compared to handing a relative advantage to a number of other players.

If you would be in second or third place that's different but this is normally coming up with people saying I am on 2-3 SCs that basically does nothing for me.

This is of course common to all games so every player has the same chance to benefit or suffer.

[Seichuto]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but theoretically the current set up could result in soloists not getting into the 2nd round? (37 games - 28 seats)

[Claesar]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but theoretically the current set up could result in soloists not getting into the 2nd round? (37 games - 28 seats)

I count only 34 games, with 9 Draws already. So it could've, but not anymore.

[Seichuto]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but theoretically the current set up could result in soloists not getting into the 2nd round? (37 games - 28 seats)

I count only 34 games, with 9 Draws already. So it could've, but not anymore.

Don't think it will be the case in exactly this tournament but I did a search on 'ODC 2019' and got 37 hits, so I reckoned...

[Durga]

There are 37

[Claesar]

Okay, but 37-9 is still roughly 28.

[Seichuto]

Anyway, just implying there might be board winners that will not make it to round #2. So every point in game #2 will be valuable, if you win your 1st game. Instead of throwing.

[Claesar]

Anyway, just implying there might be board winners that will not make it to round #2. So every point in game #2 will be valuable, if you win your 1st game. Instead of throwing.

In theory, but in practice it's unlikely because some people will definitely have two board tops. Especially due to the large disparity in skill.

[Seichuto]

Anyway, just implying there might be board winners that will not make it to round #2. So every point in game #2 will be valuable, if you win your 1st game. Instead of throwing.

In theory, but in practice it's unlikely because some people will definitely have two board tops. Especially due to the large disparity in skill.

Expecting the first player with two solo resultat to show up soon

[Magnetic24]

Congratulations to ChippeRock on his solo!

http://webdiplomacy.net/board.php?gameID=236420

And a 7 way draw for this game!

http://webdiplomacy.net/board.php?gameID=237242

Not sure if I missed any.

[Durga]

Wow a 7 way draw

[TrPrado]

-1

[osric_athanasius]

Wow a 7 way draw

Reading the global chat afterwards tell one something about this game. I suspect that it might make an interesting case study on how not to win a game.

[Napoleon of Oz]

I think that means we are up to:
ChippeRock - 133.7
Mr Green – 100
Vom Kriege – 100
diplomat554 – 100
VillageIdiot – 100
Balki Bartokomous - 100
dyager_nh – 69.4
swordsman3003 – 63.1
Napoleon of Oz – 59.8
osric_athanasius – 50.5
The Belgian Bulldog – 49.2
Senlac - 44.7
Johnny Big Horse – 43.9
Miguel1612 – 42.9
Josafina - 42.0
Pjsticha – 36.5
Fluffy Freddo – 36.4
user1981 – 36.4
Ogion – 32.7
Tugster – 32.7
0k0k0 – 30.4
Devbali02 – 26.5
gjdip – 24.6
Puddle – 24.4
The SHIV – 20.6
Skidmarks – 20.4
willie23 - 18.9
eric.grinnell - 13.2
Termasek22 – 12.1
Javatiger - 8.4
jollycream – 8.2
stranger – 5.6
Deeply_Dippy – 5.6
Pudge - 4.7
josemurc - 2.1
Creigh – <0.1