MAFIA 43 - GAME THREAD

[flash2015]

That is AWFUL reasoning to vote for Bozo. Do people in the USA not understand basic maths and probability? We already have a big advantage in this setup. We shouldn't give that away by potentially mislynching in the non-con pool, at least this early in the game. If all else fails, I would argue it would be better you vote for me than voting for Bozo, especially since you already say you scumread me.

1st point - Can you not insult US people?

2nd point - don't be ridiculous

3rd point - Percy is allowed to have a mind of his own even if some of us disagree and consider bozo town

I live here so I am allowed... I hear the nightmares about common core mathematics from my wife (she is a mathematics teacher). I don't understand how the kids learn anything.

I am on the conservative side and there are likely at least 3, if not 4 there. So if all else fails and he has no idea it would be better to lynch $RANDOM person from the conservative pile. If I am his top scumread on the conservative side, he might as well vote for me.

Sure, he can have a mind of his own. But I am also allowed to try and influence it if I think he is wrong.

[RagingIke297]

Oooohhhhhhhhh boys, I'm fishing up a whopper of a whale of a tale, I just need to make sure the codes and usernames check out and I'll be back.... We're talking Tom Bombadil isn't the cop level tin foil here

[e.m.c^42]

Oooohhhhhhhhh boys, I'm fishing up a whopper of a whale of a tale, I just need to make sure the codes and usernames check out and I'll be back.... We're talking Tom Bombadil isn't the cop level tin foil here

I'll be waitin', there's like no conspiracies anymore.

[e.m.c^42]

There really aren't enough conspiracies, here's a few in the meantime xd:

both ezio and rdr are scum, faking pm and secretary in order to see if there's cc's

or, ezio is pm, but appointed different person as sec---said rdr to see if rdr would agree or not.

or ezio is not pm, but guessed correctly and rdr is sec, so agreed.

[Vaporwave]

mhh, I think people might be just waiting to see what he is after he gets scanned--which I think might be a bad thing, since then the party cop would out themselves like tomorrow, and I don't think we have a doc?

there's also a possibility for our party cop to be killed N2 without him getting an opportunity to reveal his results

let's quickly examine this con pile:

xorxes - no way Jose

Durga - I really trust Durga, bamb spewed Durgainnocent imo

flash - this guy has been mega townie, proved to me twice when I had doubts

rdrivera - as much as I wanna townlean rivera after bomb's treatment, he's DIFFERENT from my 1st experience with him

damo - could be, his appearances have steadily decreased

Ike - I think Raging is quite alright, bomb again treated him like a villa, trying to buddy-buddy obnoxiously, so it's not so much Ike's doings, but bomb screwing things for his team and spewing hard town 2 people: Ike + Durga

Ezio - our prime minister

Nephthys - could be, Neph as town should have talked with me, I would have defended him, now I see a different side of him, being cornered and basically showing his wolfie tail

Tom - This guy is likely pissed with his entire team if scum, he probably noticed that too many were truthful in claiming con

[RagingIke297]

So, scum have got to be smart and they've got to be crafty to win this game, the town isn't just going to kill itself this game because of the number of claims and way to claim we have. So, why would scum not be the ones to want to be crafty and direct the claims PLUS drive who town "can" vote for? All the while backing it up with enough math that might have some convenient teeny tiny little mistakes or is built around a certain narrative.

Xorxes and Squigs

The two champions of the town, just building up a reputation and the ability to not get lynched later. We're probably not going to lynch either of them, let alone both because they're leading the town and they've got sheeps following them but maybe we should.

I think that the Mafia held the role block last night. Why pick Xorxes? He's already widely townread, why give him something else to just solidify it unless that's exactly what they wanted? They arent going to kill him becuase he claimed conservative so he's "in the lynch pile" but is now basically as safe as he can be while still being in that pile


SOOOOOO, the theory is that both Xorxes and Squigs are scum, just absolutely power wolfing us to no end, ones basically a clear, the other is in the no lynch pile. They're just going to keep having us lynch in the conservative pile and sure we'll find the other two but it's only because they want us to. They need to bag some teammates so we don't lose faith in our fearless leader and his sidekick stats guy.

[RagingIke297]

mhh, I think people might be just waiting to see what he is after he gets scanned--which I think might be a bad thing, since then the party cop would out themselves like tomorrow, and I don't think we have a doc?

there's also a possibility for our party cop to be killed N2 without him getting an opportunity to reveal his results

let's quickly examine this con pile:

xorxes - no way Jose

*snipped*

CASE IN POINT

[e.m.c^42]

[snip]

Xorxes and Squigs

[snip]

SOOOOOO, the theory is that both Xorxes and Squigs are scum, just absolutely power wolfing us to no end, ones basically a clear, the other is in the no lynch pile. They're just going to keep having us lynch in the conservative pile and sure we'll find the other two but it's only because they want us to. They need to bag some teammates so we don't lose faith in our fearless leader and his sidekick stats guy.

if this was true, I will be forever impressed with xorxes lol

Squigs I can sorta rationalize, xorxes is a lot harder.

but going along with your theory, there's more questionable (and less contributing) people out there that it's probably fine for them to stay alive even if they are scum xD

[Squigs44]

Oops, italic was a formatting error, they don't mean anything xD

regarding the other aspects of Neph's reads (this is mostly for Squigs lol, since you used me as an example), found his thoughts regarding me accurate enough---since it's in comparison to last game (the only reference there is for me haha)

really can't judge whether they are surface level or not; since I think I'm surface level (or inane tinfoiling) only kek

but there's nothing that's exceptionally objectionable to

I'm not sure I've ever seen anyone defend someone else's scumread of themselves before. Neph/emc scumteam or is that too obvious?

[Squigs44]

wait no
so rd is conftown for being eu negotiator right?

No

[Squigs44]

On Ezio's case, a large part of his credence seems to come from his PM claim--which I'll believe (but not trust...won't trust any claims unless it's in a post from GM :))

His main point is that Neph's analysis of him is really bad/makes no sense, and "indicative of scum trying to fake a reads list"---which feels a bit like overreacting to me. That's not to say that Neph's reasons were particularly good, but not understanding it at all/misunderstanding the rest of his responses seems to be a thing---comprehension compatibility issues? or something else, idk

However, (prolly NAI, but the thought occurred so here it is), the way Neph responded with that he's a bit pissed at his posts being overlooked---iirc it was something he did once to get townread both as a genuine emotion and as a tactic---@Neph perhaps you can try simple.wikipedia'ing it? XD

so all in all I think it's partially caused by misunderstanding each others points (or selectively reading), and scumreading as a result, but am waiting to see how they continue to respond, since I could be the one misemphasizing parts.

How about instead of defending someone you try to tell us why it would be better to vote someone else. What makes someone else more scummy than Neph?

[worcej]

So, scum have got to be smart and they've got to be crafty to win this game, the town isn't just going to kill itself this game because of the number of claims and way to claim we have. So, why would scum not be the ones to want to be crafty and direct the claims PLUS drive who town "can" vote for? All the while backing it up with enough math that might have some convenient teeny tiny little mistakes or is built around a certain narrative.

Xorxes and Squigs

The two champions of the town, just building up a reputation and the ability to not get lynched later. We're probably not going to lynch either of them, let alone both because they're leading the town and they've got sheeps following them but maybe we should.

I think that the Mafia held the role block last night. Why pick Xorxes? He's already widely townread, why give him something else to just solidify it unless that's exactly what they wanted? They arent going to kill him becuase he claimed conservative so he's "in the lynch pile" but is now basically as safe as he can be while still being in that pile


SOOOOOO, the theory is that both Xorxes and Squigs are scum, just absolutely power wolfing us to no end, ones basically a clear, the other is in the no lynch pile. They're just going to keep having us lynch in the conservative pile and sure we'll find the other two but it's only because they want us to. They need to bag some teammates so we don't lose faith in our fearless leader and his sidekick stats guy.

I was going to wait awhile to fire this one out as kills happen in the non-cons and we continue to mislynch cons, but this is also where my logic was as well, except I am more focusing on xorxes.

Some more thouhts before the case: Assuming town was all truthful (apparently it wasn't because of Attorney), but the math is simple - there are 3 scum most likely inside the conservative camp right now. This means the one scum outside the conservative group is the sleeper, but what if they are not a good sleeper candidate? The main group of scum need to try to pilot the town in a direction away from themselves because they are in a much tighter pool of targets.

Thus, we find the most obv!town xorxes currently leading the town charge. Typically, xorxes is good at scum hunting, but a lot of what he is doing right now is focusing on the conservative group specifically (which makes sense with the setup) but it also is the only thing a scum conservative player can do for now. The scum want to try to get their sleeper all the way to the end of this game, and that sleeper is the one inside the non-cons group. They cannot be scanned as a scum now that Vecna is gone. So wasting our time, directing us towards other players that are not scum, even bussing one on some day, while they pick at the rest of the group in cons over time, is the smart scum play. It's too perfect.

##vote xorxes

[Squigs44]

My full analysis wall:
Brainbomb called that he was scum, very likely others bussed him, not doing so would look suspicious since he was being so obvious and unhelpful.

Bozotheclown is my guess for the non con mafia. He made some really shifty moves with his vote there, where he claimed suspicion on brainbomb which he matched with a vote, then voted on ezio With a last-minute switch to tie the lynch vote.I find it highly likely him Rdr and Brain were all mafia

Rdr doesn't have a lot in, but looking back through it one of his main logic reveals/ posts with actual content, at the end of night one according to the peterbot, is claims that Fox is more scummy then Rdr or Bozo;based solely on Fox attracting attention to the suspect vote switch.

Vapour I was suspicious at the beginning of the game, but that Pr claim really wiped him clean and his surprise at Brain being scum helps.

Tom Has almost nothing posted, but I think we got lucky and he's town.

Flash is likely mafia in my books, he defended Brainbomb in the beginning and tried to get a Or to reveal in the night phase.


I've got to leave this until later today where I can finish the wall, but until then
##VOTE BOZOTHECLOWN
If we catch the non conservative mafia we only have a small group left to search through.

What makes you think Tom is town? PoE or something he did?

[Squigs44]

My full analysis wall:
Brainbomb called that he was scum, very likely others bussed him, not doing so would look suspicious since he was being so obvious and unhelpful.

Bozotheclown is my guess for the non con mafia. He made some really shifty moves with his vote there, where he claimed suspicion on brainbomb which he matched with a vote, then voted on ezio With a last-minute switch to tie the lynch vote.I find it highly likely him Rdr and Brain were all mafia

Rdr doesn't have a lot in, but looking back through it one of his main logic reveals/ posts with actual content, at the end of night one according to the peterbot, is claims that Fox is more scummy then Rdr or Bozo;based solely on Fox attracting attention to the suspect vote switch.

Vapour I was suspicious at the beginning of the game, but that Pr claim really wiped him clean and his surprise at Brain being scum helps.

Tom Has almost nothing posted, but I think we got lucky and he's town.

Flash is likely mafia in my books, he defended Brainbomb in the beginning and tried to get a Or to reveal in the night phase.


I've got to leave this until later today where I can finish the wall, but until then
##VOTE BOZOTHECLOWN
If we catch the non conservative mafia we only have a small group left to search through.

That is AWFUL reasoning to vote for Bozo. Do people in the USA not understand basic maths and probability? We already have a big advantage in this setup. We shouldn't give that away by potentially mislynching in the non-con pool, at least this early in the game. If all else fails, I would argue it would be better you vote for me than voting for Bozo, especially since you already say you scumread me.

First off, Percy has made it clear he is not from the US. I'm offended by that comment, as I'm from the US and a math guy.

Secondly, you say his reasoning to vote Bozo is awful, but then don't explain why, instead insisting we Lynch a con today.

[Squigs44]

I mean, so is voting for someone because they have a couple of scum reads in the same pool of players that should only have one scum

Is that your understanding of the whole case on Neph?

I'm just giving flash a hard time for voting me because my scum pool was 3 Cons and 3 Non-Cons and one of the cons ended up being Theresa May

Weird interaction by Ike here.

[Squigs44]

Given that I am town (believe it or not), that makes 5 of your 6 scum reads as most likely town.

So you think that all the current claims are **most likely** true?

What? You're making a mountain out of a molehill here Ike

[Squigs44]

So, scum have got to be smart and they've got to be crafty to win this game, the town isn't just going to kill itself this game because of the number of claims and way to claim we have. So, why would scum not be the ones to want to be crafty and direct the claims PLUS drive who town "can" vote for? All the while backing it up with enough math that might have some convenient teeny tiny little mistakes or is built around a certain narrative.

Xorxes and Squigs

The two champions of the town, just building up a reputation and the ability to not get lynched later. We're probably not going to lynch either of them, let alone both because they're leading the town and they've got sheeps following them but maybe we should.

I think that the Mafia held the role block last night. Why pick Xorxes? He's already widely townread, why give him something else to just solidify it unless that's exactly what they wanted? They arent going to kill him becuase he claimed conservative so he's "in the lynch pile" but is now basically as safe as he can be while still being in that pile


SOOOOOO, the theory is that both Xorxes and Squigs are scum, just absolutely power wolfing us to no end, ones basically a clear, the other is in the no lynch pile. They're just going to keep having us lynch in the conservative pile and sure we'll find the other two but it's only because they want us to. They need to bag some teammates so we don't lose faith in our fearless leader and his sidekick stats guy.

He's onto us Xorxes!

But seriously Ike, you said last night that you were lazy with your scumreads and that when you got a chance you would revise them. Instead you are wasting your time on conspiracies.

[e.m.c^42]

I'm not sure I've ever seen anyone defend someone else's scumread of themselves before. Neph/emc scumteam or is that too obvious?

Haha, as in I'm aware that I'm posting in a different way, and he picked up on it---which meant that Neph was actually reading what I was saying. It's also because of inane plotting on my part (think I told Vapor this earlier).

but that doesn't say anything about him being scum or not, just that he's paying attention to the thread---so if his analysis is indeed surface level (and staying that way), then it's intentional and rather suspicious.

[Durga]

I didn't think this thread could devolve any further, and yet here we are

[RagingIke297]

So, scum have got to be smart and they've got to be crafty to win this game, the town isn't just going to kill itself this game because of the number of claims and way to claim we have. So, why would scum not be the ones to want to be crafty and direct the claims PLUS drive who town "can" vote for? All the while backing it up with enough math that might have some convenient teeny tiny little mistakes or is built around a certain narrative.

Xorxes and Squigs

The two champions of the town, just building up a reputation and the ability to not get lynched later. We're probably not going to lynch either of them, let alone both because they're leading the town and they've got sheeps following them but maybe we should.

I think that the Mafia held the role block last night. Why pick Xorxes? He's already widely townread, why give him something else to just solidify it unless that's exactly what they wanted? They arent going to kill him becuase he claimed conservative so he's "in the lynch pile" but is now basically as safe as he can be while still being in that pile


SOOOOOO, the theory is that both Xorxes and Squigs are scum, just absolutely power wolfing us to no end, ones basically a clear, the other is in the no lynch pile. They're just going to keep having us lynch in the conservative pile and sure we'll find the other two but it's only because they want us to. They need to bag some teammates so we don't lose faith in our fearless leader and his sidekick stats guy.

He's onto us Xorxes!

But seriously Ike, you said last night that you were lazy with your scumreads and that when you got a chance you would revise them. Instead you are wasting your time on conspiracies.

I have like a day and some change, cut me some slack...... Or don't because it looks like you're going to try to push my lynch cuz I gotcha