MAFIA 43 - GAME THREAD

[Vecna]

So to put Xorxes plan in more detail:

There are 21 players.

10 are conservative (4 scum)
11 are non con (1 scum)

If everyone is truthful in their claims:
Party cop scans the 11 for a DUP result leading to the vote stealer.
Neopolitan cop really isn't as useful here, but his scans come in handy later when we do a bigger full reveal.
Lynches happen among the 10, with a 4 in 10 chance of hitting scum.
Pretty good odds.

If there are mafia who lie in their claims:
Party cop now has higher odds of hitting a liar among the non-con, and any liar is guaranteed to be mafia.
Where we lynch depends on how many mafia lie, but gives us more info to work with.

Still not decided if it would be smart for PR's to lie. 2/6 are conservative, so it seems about reasonable for them not to lie. It makes figuring stuff out for scum slightly easier, but the same applies to town.

[Vecna]

My rule: Suspect all. Trust no one until a hard clear. Narrowing down to a list is mmkay but subjective to that player's individual bias or lack of bias.

I agree mostly. but add to that, guilty until proven innocent. question everything
, turn over every stone

what is up with the awkward platitudes?

[Vecna]

Xorxes second plan is shit. Nobody else claim conservative or not.

His first plan was much better.

Nice try scumbo

[Attorney]

Should we maybe name reveal?

No! That gives away PR information.

Yeah Xorxes boy is town alright. Either that or he went full hyped XTC scumlord, but that would be a new trick

i agree
but istill think that xorxes should be checked at some point in time

[Vecna]

Def seems to me like the bot isn't working.

I'm gonna repeat: DO NOT CLAIM conservative or not. I think it's good for the 5 Liberal VT's to claim, but it is absolutely not a good idea for all conservatives to claim.

Scum only have a 2/6 chance, and that is if those PR's dont lie.

Those are worse odds than the average of hitting the PR.

Then they have a 4/10 chance on the other ones.

Its not like shit is getting a lot worse for us. MAybe along the way if people start dying, but were not gonna save a lot of PR in this setup regardless.

[Attorney]

So to put Xorxes plan in more detail:

There are 21 players.

10 are conservative (4 scum)
11 are non con (1 scum)

If everyone is truthful in their claims:
Party cop scans the 11 for a DUP result leading to the vote stealer.
Neopolitan cop really isn't as useful here, but his scans come in handy later when we do a bigger full reveal.
Lynches happen among the 10, with a 4 in 10 chance of hitting scum.
Pretty good odds.

If there are mafia who lie in their claims:
Party cop now has higher odds of hitting a liar among the non-con, and any liar is guaranteed to be mafia.
Where we lynch depends on how many mafia lie, but gives us more info to work with.

Still not decided if it would be smart for PR's to lie. 2/6 are conservative, so it seems about reasonable for them not to lie. It makes figuring stuff out for scum slightly easier, but the same applies to town.

how are 10 players conservative
also shouldn't neopolitan and party cop and journalist go in the group of 10

[damo666]

This plan

I'm not against it, but I feel like there's pressure for all of us to just accept it even if we aren't 100% on board with it

I would rather we lynch scummy people, most people haven't given opinions on others, but rather commented on the plan.

Let's not give mafia the opportunity to hide behind setup/mech talk

I think you're taking the mick out of Mrs M's deal

[Attorney]

wait nvm

[Vecna]

Ok everybody I guess we need to talk about what makes a plan good in mafia.

For a plan to be effective, it needs to be impossible for mafia to fuck with it (if mafia fuck with it, their winrate goes down by more than letting the plan go through).

Think about how you would fuck up Xorxes plan if you were mafia. It's not difficult, and when you do it Xorxes plan has given town absolutely no information but has given scum information.

Compare it to the first plan. Think about how you would counter it as scum and what that would cost you.

Yeah but youre ignoring the important part. That what comes after

[Attorney]

Damo and Vecna I want your thoughts on all the people who've claimed conservative.
Because at the least there are 2 wolves in this group of 6.

[Attorney]

bot isn't working huh

[Vecna]

Ok everybody I guess we need to talk about what makes a plan good in mafia.

For a plan to be effective, it needs to be impossible for mafia to fuck with it (if mafia fuck with it, their winrate goes down by more than letting the plan go through).

Think about how you would fuck up Xorxes plan if you were mafia. It's not difficult, and when you do it Xorxes plan has given town absolutely no information but has given scum information.

Compare it to the first plan. Think about how you would counter it as scum and what that would cost you.

What info does it give mafia? The only thing mafia is after is PR's, and since there are 2 cons, 4 non-cons among PRs, it doesn't help much. Also, how does mafia screw with the plan? Either they lie or tell the truth, and both gives town info.

The % of town that are PRs & conservative is lower than the & of town that are PR. By removing all of the conservative towns from the shot/RB pool, it increases scum's chances of hitting PR.

Squigs are you kidding me right now? What actionable information does town get if they lie? What if only 2 of them lie. What about three?

You see the problem with his new plan and why it's so shitty now?

4/10 vs 6/16

We only give up like 5% to be able to catch people in a lie, turning both cops into near actual cops, having a lot of extra shit to work with later on.

The setup is gonna be hella rocky anyway, might as well optimally use our tools.

[Jamiet99uk]

bot isn't working huh

The bot is now working
http://mafia.peterlund.se/e/web/game_status?g=43

[Vecna]

Go back to pushing a no-lynch Ezio.

[Attorney]

The people who've claimed conservative are me
flash rd durga bb and then 1 other
i'll look now

[xorxes]

I found a minor flaw in my plan: If every town (except for the Party Cop) is required to tell the truth, then at the end of the day scum will know if the PC has lied or not, and so they will know in which side of the house they have to look for them.

Fortunately there's an easy fix: Only conservative townies (other than the PC) are required to be truthful. Most non-conservatives should also be truthful (so as not to add noise into the scumpool) but one or two should probably lie and say they're conservatives, as that helps protect the valuable PC. This way scum don't know where to look for the PC, because they don't know if they lied or not.

Non-conservatives claiming conservative doesn't affect the reliability of the PC's scans. They scan in the non-conservative pool and if they get conservative (or DUP) it's a guilty and if they get anything else it's a clear.

[Vaporwave]

wasn't damo's pop-in right now just weird?

don't think he commented previously

damo, are you a scumbo?

No entrance, no intro but flat-out a quote out of nowhere

[xorxes]

My rule: Suspect all. Trust no one until a hard clear. Narrowing down to a list is mmkay but subjective to that player's individual bias or lack of bias.

I agree mostly. but add to that, guilty until proven innocent. question everything
, turn over every stone

what is up with the awkward platitudes?

brainbomb is definitely being weird so far.

[Attorney]

I found a minor flaw in my plan: If every town (except for the Party Cop) is required to tell the truth, then at the end of the day scum will know if the PC has lied or not, and so they will know in which side of the house they have to look for them.

Fortunately there's an easy fix: Only conservative townies (other than the PC) are required to be truthful. Most non-conservatives should also be truthful (so as not to add noise into the scumpool) but one or two should probably lie and say they're conservatives, as that helps protect the valuable PC. This way scum don't know where to look for the PC, because they don't know if they lied or not.

Non-conservatives claiming conservative doesn't affect the reliability of the PC's scans. They scan in the non-conservative pool and if they get conservative (or DUP) it's a guilty and if they get anything else it's a clear.

that makes sense
I am a legit conservative towny
i don't think labours/snp should laim conservative tho

[Attorney]

wasn't damo's pop-in right now just weird?

don't think he commented previously

damo, are you a scumbo?

No entrance, no intro but flat-out a quote out of nowhere

vapor are you conservative or no