MAFIA 43 - GAME THREAD

[Squigs44]

I thought the party cop was also a liberal and not a conservative. IMO the cops are the only PR's that matter in this setup. Because there is one on either side, the PR narrowing aspect for scum is significantly less important than I originally thought. Therefore, I concede the information Xorxes' second plan is less damaging than I thought as it doesn't actually give scum a higher chance to hit cop.

Nevertheless, Xorxes' first plan is still better than his second plan.

Town has 5 guaranteed clears if mafia don't CC, so mafia must CC. When mafia CC, our party cop has a significantly better chance to hit the mafia that CC as the pool is so much smaller.

Hold up.

You were opposed to his other plan because it increased the odds of the mafia catching PRs (which it actually didnt really do that).

But this plan exposes 5 VTs, which means mafia's percent at hitting PR's is now 6/11 (54.5%).

[brainbomb]

I dont think we wanna get caught.

we wanna stay hidden as PR

[bozotheclown]

Claimed conservative: Brainbomb, Xorxes, Durga,
Claimed not-conservative: Squigs, ND
People who have posted since Xorxes reveal but have not claimed one way or the other: Vaporwave, emc, Ezio, Fox, Bozo

Among those that havent claimed, Ezio is opposing it, Vaporwave expressed distrust, emc hedged, Fox doesnt hate it, and Bozo see the merit in it.

@Bozo, Fox - You seem to have expressed that you are in favor (at least slightly) of the claim idea. Why haven't you claimed if that is the case?

I think we should get a consensus on if we should do it first. We need eleven votes for the majority to be in favor of the conservative/non-conservative claim plan. I think it is safe to assume those who have claimed are in favor of the plan, and I will add myself to the list. That is six votes in favor so far.

[Ezio]

I thought the party cop was also a liberal and not a conservative. IMO the cops are the only PR's that matter in this setup. Because there is one on either side, the PR narrowing aspect for scum is significantly less important than I originally thought. Therefore, I concede the information Xorxes' second plan is less damaging than I thought as it doesn't actually give scum a higher chance to hit cop.

Nevertheless, Xorxes' first plan is still better than his second plan.

Town has 5 guaranteed clears if mafia don't CC, so mafia must CC. When mafia CC, our party cop has a significantly better chance to hit the mafia that CC as the pool is so much smaller.

Hold up.

You were opposed to his other plan because it increased the odds of the mafia catching PRs (which it actually didnt really do that).

But this plan exposes 5 VTs, which means mafia's percent at hitting PR's is now 6/11 (54.5%).

It does. It also increases the odds of catching scum by a larger margin. Remember my initial reaction was "interesting. I think net beneficial"

[ND]

I think it is a net positive at the end of the day and probably a good move for D1.

[Squigs44]

e.m.c didnt do enough to be voted for. so the scumreads on him were weird. perhaps too soon.

If you were following the game you would know that no one has voted for emc.

Brainbomb is officially checked out of this game.

[Squigs44]

would this even work?

I am not sure what you are asking, but the vote stealer is the only non-conservative mafia, so if he claims conservative, another mafia could claim non-conservative to keep the balance. However, I do not think this has much effect on the benefit to town.

I was wondering why you were so interested in one very obscure scum strategy, and seemingly basing your entire day around talking about that so far

How do you get "Basing your entire day around talking about that" from a single post?

[Squigs44]

I thought the party cop was also a liberal and not a conservative. IMO the cops are the only PR's that matter in this setup. Because there is one on either side, the PR narrowing aspect for scum is significantly less important than I originally thought. Therefore, I concede the information Xorxes' second plan is less damaging than I thought as it doesn't actually give scum a higher chance to hit cop.

Nevertheless, Xorxes' first plan is still better than his second plan.

Town has 5 guaranteed clears if mafia don't CC, so mafia must CC. When mafia CC, our party cop has a significantly better chance to hit the mafia that CC as the pool is so much smaller.

Hold up.

You were opposed to his other plan because it increased the odds of the mafia catching PRs (which it actually didnt really do that).

But this plan exposes 5 VTs, which means mafia's percent at hitting PR's is now 6/11 (54.5%).

It does. It also increases the odds of catching scum by a larger margin. Remember my initial reaction was "interesting. I think net beneficial"

Okay, lets revisit this plan.

Mafia doesn't cc.
Chance of mafia catching PRs goes from 37.5% to 54.5%
Chance of party cop identifying scum absolutely goes from 4.8% to 6.3%
Chance of lynching mafia goes from 23.8% to 31.3%

But - mafia now has to choose between hunting PR's and taking out clears. Leaving the clears alive means a difficult end game, while leaving the PR's alive means more scans (which with these cops isn't really too powerful). I think mafia likely chooses to take out our clears.

So this strategy gives scum a way to take out our clears while increasing lynch odds by 7.5% and scan odds by 1.5%.

Mafia has one person cc:
The info mafia gets is the same as before
Chance of party cop identifying scum absolutely goes from 4.8% to 16.7%
Chance of lynching mafia goes from 23.8% to 26.7% (if you lynch among non-labours)
But, after the party cop identifies the scum, you have a pool of clears like before, which is pro town.

Mafia has more than one person cc:
The info mafia gets is same as before.
Chance of party cop identifying scum absolutely gets higher and higher up to potentially 50%. Chance of lynching now is higher among the labours, and things get complicated.


I really don't think that this plan is as great as you think it is Ezio.

[flash2015]

I'm happy to claim xorx.

You can't do that because I claim xorxes!

Actually I claim conservative.

[flash2015]

You can relax BB as for this game I am going to give the past a slip:

##VOTE e.m.c

As I don't like his hedginess. Only I am allowed to be hedgy.

[Ezio]

Hold up.

You were opposed to his other plan because it increased the odds of the mafia catching PRs (which it actually didnt really do that).

But this plan exposes 5 VTs, which means mafia's percent at hitting PR's is now 6/11 (54.5%).

It does. It also increases the odds of catching scum by a larger margin. Remember my initial reaction was "interesting. I think net beneficial"

Okay, lets revisit this plan.

Mafia doesn't cc.
Chance of mafia catching PRs goes from 37.5% to 54.5%
Chance of party cop identifying scum absolutely goes from 4.8% to 6.3%
Chance of lynching mafia goes from 23.8% to 31.3%

But - mafia now has to choose between hunting PR's and taking out clears. Leaving the clears alive means a difficult end game, while leaving the PR's alive means more scans (which with these cops isn't really too powerful). I think mafia likely chooses to take out our clears.

So this strategy gives scum a way to take out our clears while increasing lynch odds by 7.5% and scan odds by 1.5%.

Mafia has one person cc:
The info mafia gets is the same as before
Chance of party cop identifying scum absolutely goes from 4.8% to 16.7%
Chance of lynching mafia goes from 23.8% to 26.7% (if you lynch among non-labours)
But, after the party cop identifies the scum, you have a pool of clears like before, which is pro town.

Mafia has more than one person cc:
The info mafia gets is same as before.
Chance of party cop identifying scum absolutely gets higher and higher up to potentially 50%. Chance of lynching now is higher among the labours, and things get complicated.


I really don't think that this plan is as great as you think it is Ezio.

I don't think you value getting townclears highly enough.

[Squigs44]

It does. It also increases the odds of catching scum by a larger margin. Remember my initial reaction was "interesting. I think net beneficial"

Okay, lets revisit this plan.

Mafia doesn't cc.
Chance of mafia catching PRs goes from 37.5% to 54.5%
Chance of party cop identifying scum absolutely goes from 4.8% to 6.3%
Chance of lynching mafia goes from 23.8% to 31.3%

But - mafia now has to choose between hunting PR's and taking out clears. Leaving the clears alive means a difficult end game, while leaving the PR's alive means more scans (which with these cops isn't really too powerful). I think mafia likely chooses to take out our clears.

So this strategy gives scum a way to take out our clears while increasing lynch odds by 7.5% and scan odds by 1.5%.

Mafia has one person cc:
The info mafia gets is the same as before
Chance of party cop identifying scum absolutely goes from 4.8% to 16.7%
Chance of lynching mafia goes from 23.8% to 26.7% (if you lynch among non-labours)
But, after the party cop identifies the scum, you have a pool of clears like before, which is pro town.

Mafia has more than one person cc:
The info mafia gets is same as before.
Chance of party cop identifying scum absolutely gets higher and higher up to potentially 50%. Chance of lynching now is higher among the labours, and things get complicated.


I really don't think that this plan is as great as you think it is Ezio.

I don't think you value getting townclears highly enough.

The reason I don't like this plan is precisely because it exposes our town clears. The labour party back benchers are extremely valuable if we can get them to the late game. Revealing them like this now invites mafia to kill them all off early.

[brainbomb]

You can relax BB as for this game I am going to give the past a slip:

##VOTE e.m.c

As I don't like his hedginess. Only I am allowed to be hedgy.

##Vote flash

finally
randed
scum

[Ezio]

Okay, lets revisit this plan.

Mafia doesn't cc.
Chance of mafia catching PRs goes from 37.5% to 54.5%
Chance of party cop identifying scum absolutely goes from 4.8% to 6.3%
Chance of lynching mafia goes from 23.8% to 31.3%

But - mafia now has to choose between hunting PR's and taking out clears. Leaving the clears alive means a difficult end game, while leaving the PR's alive means more scans (which with these cops isn't really too powerful). I think mafia likely chooses to take out our clears.

So this strategy gives scum a way to take out our clears while increasing lynch odds by 7.5% and scan odds by 1.5%.

Mafia has one person cc:
The info mafia gets is the same as before
Chance of party cop identifying scum absolutely goes from 4.8% to 16.7%
Chance of lynching mafia goes from 23.8% to 26.7% (if you lynch among non-labours)
But, after the party cop identifies the scum, you have a pool of clears like before, which is pro town.

Mafia has more than one person cc:
The info mafia gets is same as before.
Chance of party cop identifying scum absolutely gets higher and higher up to potentially 50%. Chance of lynching now is higher among the labours, and things get complicated.


I really don't think that this plan is as great as you think it is Ezio.

I don't think you value getting townclears highly enough.

The reason I don't like this plan is precisely because it exposes our town clears. The labour party back benchers are extremely valuable if we can get them to the late game. Revealing them like this now invites mafia to kill them all off early.

I don't think random labor people are gonna be townclears later. If we can treat them as townclear, we can simply go for a hard mass claim and we immediately win the game.
We can't do that because they're too similar to VT and therefore not clear. We only get to clear them because we have the rolecop to deal with the mafia CC's.

[Percy Williams]

I don't want to try to make sense of any of the percentages presented, so I'll just claim non-conservative, and be on my merry way. God save the Queen!

[Percy Williams]

The chances of hitting a Scum are lowest first night, ergo, ##VOTE NOLYNCH.

[peterlund]

The reason the bot did not pick up any votes was that the game thread id had been set to 61416 while the real game thread is 1321. Now this setting is corrected and it is picking up votes as it should at http://mafia.peterlund.se

[brainbomb]

The chances of hitting a Scum are lowest first night, ergo, ##VOTE NOLYNCH.

no percy. please god no

[rdrivera2005]

Well, sorry for being late to the party. I confess I don't have a clue about British politics and the roles are a bit confusing to me.

I think Squigs maths seems solid even if he didn't consider Bozo scenario where two scum lie and keep it 11/10, but I don't think it change the odds for the Party Cop, he still have a 1/11 to hit scum and the lynch odds are also the same

So, I am in favour of the claiming and I am a conservative.

Also, it's Carnaval here, so don't expect much from me until Wednesday (if I am still alive).

[Attorney]

Hello.
Sorry I was unable to post last night, I was realy tired andthen crashed.

I haven't read most of the game yet but as of now I could see flash being wolf, mostly for his vote on e. His statement which says: I don't like e because negativitity so i vote e.
Hello sir flash2015 try some actual scumhunting.