MAFIA 43 - GAME THREAD

[brainbomb]

Okay, I do not hate Xorxes proposals.

Vaporware gets some side-eye. The thing where he votes Xorxes, then Durga comments "yikes" and then he turns around and votes Durga could be a thing? But the rest of Durga looks pretty okay to me.

Can someone summarize vaporware's play in (I guess it would be) the last game, since I wasn't in it?

I do not like Bad Cop Squigs. The last time I was in a game with Bad Cop Squigs, I was scum and trying to get him lynched for it, but the truth I was using to do that was that Squigs hates rolling scum and believes he has too many tells, so he has motive to fake a persona.

Claimed conservative: Brainbomb, Xorxes, Durga.,

Claimed not-conservative: Squigs.

Xorxes second plan is shit. Nobody else claim conservative or not.

Why is it net negative for town? And do you think it's a bad idea, or a scum-motivated idea?

Okay, so Fox admits he is doing the same thing he did when he was mafia. Probably town for that.

https://media.giphy.com/media/kYHi5ST45AzNC/giphy.gif

[brainbomb]

by the way Megan McCain wears the worst outfits on the view. She was mean to Bernie today.

[Ezio]

Ok everybody I guess we need to talk about what makes a plan good in mafia.

For a plan to be effective, it needs to be impossible for mafia to fuck with it (if mafia fuck with it, their winrate goes down by more than letting the plan go through).

Think about how you would fuck up Xorxes plan if you were mafia. It's not difficult, and when you do it Xorxes plan has given town absolutely no information but has given scum information.

Compare it to the first plan. Think about how you would counter it as scum and what that would cost you.

What info does it give mafia? The only thing mafia is after is PR's, and since there are 2 cons, 4 non-cons among PRs, it doesn't help much. Also, how does mafia screw with the plan? Either they lie or tell the truth, and both gives town info.

The % of town that are PRs & conservative is lower than the & of town that are PR. By removing all of the conservative towns from the shot/RB pool, it increases scum's chances of hitting PR.

Squigs are you kidding me right now? What actionable information does town get if they lie? What if only 2 of them lie. What about three?

You see the problem with his new plan and why it's so shitty now?

[Ezio]

@fox

I think it's scum movtivated. It's super common for townies to make neat mechanic plans that get fucked with through proper mafia shenanigans, and his first plan really was awesome.

[ND]

But if everyone does it, it helps narrow down the possible scum pool. That's how I read it.

[Squigs44]

Ok everybody I guess we need to talk about what makes a plan good in mafia.

For a plan to be effective, it needs to be impossible for mafia to fuck with it (if mafia fuck with it, their winrate goes down by more than letting the plan go through).

Think about how you would fuck up Xorxes plan if you were mafia. It's not difficult, and when you do it Xorxes plan has given town absolutely no information but has given scum information.

Compare it to the first plan. Think about how you would counter it as scum and what that would cost you.

What info does it give mafia? The only thing mafia is after is PR's, and since there are 2 cons, 4 non-cons among PRs, it doesn't help much. Also, how does mafia screw with the plan? Either they lie or tell the truth, and both gives town info.

The % of town that are PRs & conservative is lower than the & of town that are PR. By removing all of the conservative towns from the shot/RB pool, it increases scum's chances of hitting PR.

Squigs are you kidding me right now? What actionable information does town get if they lie? What if only 2 of them lie. What about three?

You see the problem with his new plan and why it's so shitty now?

Without a reveal:
6 PR's, 10 VTs
37.5% chance of hitting PR

With reveal:
Con: 2 PR's, 4 con PR's
Non-Con: 4 PR's, 6 Non-con PR's

Target Con: 33% chance hit
Target Non-Con: 40% chance hit

So mafia increases their odds of hitting a PR by 2.5% by targeting Non-Con. Congrats scum-team!


On the flip side:

No reveal:
Party cop has 1 in 21 chance of getting a guaranteed scum (4.8% chance)
Lynch odds is 5 in 21 chance (23.8%)

Reveal and No liars:
Party cop has 1 in 11 chance for getting a guaranteed scum (9% chance)
Lynch odds is 4 in 10 chance when lynching among con claimers (40%)

1 liar:
Party cop has 2 in 11 chance for getting a guaranteed scum (18% chance)
Lynch odds is 3 in 9 chance when lynching among con (33%)

2 liars:
Party cop has 3 in 11 chance for getting a guaranteed scum (27% chance)
Lynch odds is 2 in 8 chance when lynching among con (25%)

3 liars:
Party cop has 4 in 11 chance for getting a guaranteed scum (36% chance)
Lynch odds is 4 in 14 chance when lynching among non-con (28.6%)

4 liars:
Party cop has 5 in 11 chance of guaranteed (45% chance)
Lynch odds is 5 in 15 chance when lynching among non-con (33%)

[Squigs44]

Go back to pushing a no-lynch Ezio.

[Durga]

Fuck the PR's. Let's play this game as if it's vanilla. Mechanics are boring

[Squigs44]

Just realized my math is off on the party cop %'s

Instead of 2 in 11 it should be 2 in 12, 3 in 13, 4 in 14. But the same principle applies.

[Ezio]

I thought the party cop was also a liberal and not a conservative. IMO the cops are the only PR's that matter in this setup. Because there is one on either side, the PR narrowing aspect for scum is significantly less important than I originally thought. Therefore, I concede the information Xorxes' second plan is less damaging than I thought as it doesn't actually give scum a higher chance to hit cop.

Nevertheless, Xorxes' first plan is still better than his second plan.

Town has 5 guaranteed clears if mafia don't CC, so mafia must CC. When mafia CC, our party cop has a significantly better chance to hit the mafia that CC as the pool is so much smaller.

[Ezio]

Fuck the PR's. Let's play this game as if it's vanilla. Mechanics are boring

I like winning thx.

[bozotheclown]

Just realized my math is off on the party cop %'s

Instead of 2 in 11 it should be 2 in 12, 3 in 13, 4 in 14. But the same principle applies.

You also do not seem to be considering the possibility of the vote stealer claiming conservative, and if the vote stealer and one conservative mafia fake claim their party, the result would be the same as everyone claiming their real party, adding another level of uncertainty and error to your calculations.

[brainbomb]

Just realized my math is off on the party cop %'s

Instead of 2 in 11 it should be 2 in 12, 3 in 13, 4 in 14. But the same principle applies.

You also do not seem to be considering the possibility of the vote stealer claiming conservative, and if the vote stealer and one conservative mafia fake claim their party, the result would be the same as everyone claiming their real party, adding another level of uncertainty and error to your calculations.

would this even work?

[bozotheclown]

I think the plan for everyone to claim conservative/non-conservative does have value for town, as it should increase the value of the party cop and it forces the mafia to fake claim to prevent a significant increase in our chances of lynching mafia. Since fake mafia claims also help the party cop and could be proven false in other ways later in the game, I think there is net benefit for town to force the the mafia to lock themselves into a party claim.

[bozotheclown]

Just realized my math is off on the party cop %'s

Instead of 2 in 11 it should be 2 in 12, 3 in 13, 4 in 14. But the same principle applies.

You also do not seem to be considering the possibility of the vote stealer claiming conservative, and if the vote stealer and one conservative mafia fake claim their party, the result would be the same as everyone claiming their real party, adding another level of uncertainty and error to your calculations.

would this even work?

I am not sure what you are asking, but the vote stealer is the only non-conservative mafia, so if he claims conservative, another mafia could claim non-conservative to keep the balance. However, I do not think this has much effect on the benefit to town.

[Squigs44]

Just realized my math is off on the party cop %'s

Instead of 2 in 11 it should be 2 in 12, 3 in 13, 4 in 14. But the same principle applies.

You also do not seem to be considering the possibility of the vote stealer claiming conservative, and if the vote stealer and one conservative mafia fake claim their party, the result would be the same as everyone claiming their real party, adding another level of uncertainty and error to your calculations.

True, vote stealer could claim cons, but I think it would only help town if he did that.

[brainbomb]

So far I like vapor mostly because I am 99% sure I know who he is. and hes a fun chap who I usually will turn on eventually.

Not loving the votes on me but they arent scummy necessarily.

Ezio seems different. he isnt using any system to catch reactions like usual.

xorxes has plans and ideas, and that usually speaks less about the quality of his plans and more points to him being town.

e.m.c didnt do enough to be voted for. so the scumreads on him were weird. perhaps too soon.

Not enough happening yet, folks like rivera, vecna, bozo, and foxcastle are the crew I wanna watch closely for their historical successes or fails as scum.

bozo is generally a good late game asset.

I dont actually know noah(Attorney) very well, and didnt invite him he just came here. thats fine. I think hes not bad at mafia but hes from mu so hes probably gonna want the bot to help him.

I dont have a whole lot to say about the conservative claim stuff as its one direction to go that yields a scum potentially, narrows day 1 lynch pool potentially but guarantees us an eventual scum lynch by day 3 if all goes well

[thamrick]

Checking in to say that I admittedly haven’t read the setup close enough to comment on the benefit of xorxes’ plan. I don’t have a big issue with claiming conservative/non-conservative but I’ll wait until I’ve had a chance to consider it.

I worked closing shift tonight and I open tomorrow so I won’t be on until later tomorrow.

Initially, feeling great about Foxcastle, Durga, Ezio
Feeling weird about Vapor

[Squigs44]

Claimed conservative: Brainbomb, Xorxes, Durga,
Claimed not-conservative: Squigs, ND
People who have posted since Xorxes reveal but have not claimed one way or the other: Vaporwave, emc, Ezio, Fox, Bozo

Among those that havent claimed, Ezio is opposing it, Vaporwave expressed distrust, emc hedged, Fox doesnt hate it, and Bozo see the merit in it.

@Bozo, Fox - You seem to have expressed that you are in favor (at least slightly) of the claim idea. Why haven't you claimed if that is the case?

[brainbomb]

You also do not seem to be considering the possibility of the vote stealer claiming conservative, and if the vote stealer and one conservative mafia fake claim their party, the result would be the same as everyone claiming their real party, adding another level of uncertainty and error to your calculations.

would this even work?

I am not sure what you are asking, but the vote stealer is the only non-conservative mafia, so if he claims conservative, another mafia could claim non-conservative to keep the balance. However, I do not think this has much effect on the benefit to town.

I was wondering why you were so interested in one very obscure scum strategy, and seemingly basing your entire day around talking about that so far