Mafia XXXIV Game Thread - Who Framed Roger Rabbit?

[Maniac]

Sorry for being away most of the day.

If the gunsmith delivered his last gun he can probably claim and tell who has the gun. This will give us another clear and a town guided shoot (probably on Balki). The gun owner should not tell before the GS say so.

The GS has 4 guns and shouldn’t be hurried into claiming

[Maniac]

Nobody should be voting END, we have time to figure stuff out.

Also, although Balki was wrong about being clear he appeared to believe he was. Whilst that could be part of his deception, it's worth bearing in mind.

[Maniac]

@Rdrivera - can you walk me through these seemingly contradictory statements?

“Ezio first message was as scummy as it can be. An anchor vote and a useless comment about shoot Brain or no shoot (really?) without any reasoning.”

“My vote on Ezio is based mainly on gut feeling and lurker pressuring…”

TIA

[Maniac]

@Foxcastle - I had you as strong town, but that has now changed. Just letting you know. Did you shoot Ezio by the way?

[Maniac]

hmm - Foxcastle was reading the thread but signed off as soon as I asked him about Ezio's death. Interesting.

[rdrivera2005]

Sorry for being away most of the day.

If the gunsmith delivered his last gun he can probably claim and tell who has the gun. This will give us another clear and a town guided shoot (probably on Balki). The gun owner should not tell before the GS say so.

The GS has 4 guns and shouldn’t be hurried into claiming

I am not hurrying him to claim, but considering we already had 4 nights, if he delivered all his guns he can claim if he thinks it's a good idea to have another clear and town direct the next shot.

[rdrivera2005]

@Rdrivera - can you walk me through these seemingly contradictory statements?

“Ezio first message was as scummy as it can be. An anchor vote and a useless comment about shoot Brain or no shoot (really?) without any reasoning.”

“My vote on Ezio is based mainly on gut feeling and lurker pressuring…”

TIA

I don't exactly see a contradiction. The first was my reasoning on my vote on him D1, where we have really little to inform a vote. The second is D2 where we already have some info and Ezio was lurking and I don't see a reason to change my D1 vote.
It was interesting to re-read my old posts, it has some points on Reedeer I still think are valid and he is getting away easily with that RB claim.

[Foxcastle]

@Foxcastle - I had you as strong town, but that has now changed. Just letting you know. Did you shoot Ezio by the way?

I did not shoot Ezio, no.

And also, the forum keeps your status as "online" for several minutes after you actually depart, so kindly do not read motive into a data that does not actually tell you what it says it tells you...

[Maniac]

The first was my reasoning on my vote on him D1, where we have really little to inform a vote. The second is D2 where we already have some info and Ezio was lurking and I don't see a reason to change my D1 vote.

Thanks Rdrivera, I thought it was something like that. Did you shoot Ezio by the way?

[Jamiet99uk]

VOTE COUNT 5.0

Balki (5) - Tom Bombadil(END), MeanLaQueefa, Balki, Foxcastle(END), Bozotheclown
Bozotheclown (1) - DemonRHK

Currently BALKI BARTOKOMOUS is set to be lynched.

You have 1 day, 8 hours and 30 minutes remaining.

- Deputy Backup GM Jamiet99uk

[Maniac]

@MLQ - That's a good response. I'll let you live another day. I don't think we've actually properly spoken all game. We should chat more. I hope you haven't been avoiding me as that would seem scummy.

[Foxcastle]

Thinking about Tom's idea for a mass claim of PRs so that we have clears in the open, I wrote up some variations on the worst case scenario. The worst case scenario presumes that Tom is actually a PR and thus we only have 4 clears, that the Cop's scans thus far are either of clears or dead players, that we don't have any more guns, that Ezio's shooter is already dead, and that we mislynch all the way to LyLo.

I don't know if this exercise is useful. I am generally wary of a mass reveal. But I think it means that if our PRs have a few pieces of good information, it might be worth it... If DemonRHK's claim is fake and the real watcher is out there, if the cop has scum-positive scans (yes, could be miller, but statistically more likely to be scum), if the gunsmith knows that there are actually two guns in play right now.

But it should come at the very end of the night, so that the scum team still has to guess their NK and the Cop gets a chance to get another scan off.

Worst Case Scenario, we have no additional information, Tom is actually a PR (reducing our clears by 1), there's no additional gunshot, and we miss every lynch to LyLo:

4 Clears: Tom (gunsmith/cop), DemonRHK (Watcher), Maniac, Last PR (gunsmith/cop)
7 Unclears: 4 VT, a Miller, a Godfather, and a Hooker

Phase 5: begin with 11 total; lynch 1 Unclear (to 6); NK 1 Clear (to 3)
Phase 6: begin with 9; lynch 1 Unclear (to 5); NK 1 Clear (to 2)
Phase 7: begin with 7; lynch 1 Unclear (to 4); NK 1 Clear (to 1)
Phase 8: LyLo with 5, which includes 2 Unclear, 2 Mafia, and 1 Clear.

If Tom is not a PR, and we actually have 5 clears:

5 Clears: Tom, Maniac, DemonRHK (Watcher), Gunsmith, Cop
6 Unclears: 3 VT, a Miller, a Godfather, a Hooker

Phase 5: begin with 11 total; lynch 1 Unclear (to 5); NK 1 Clear (to 4)
Phase 6: begin with 9; lynch 1 Unclear (to 4); NK 1 Clear (to 3)
Phase 7: begin with 7; lynch 1 Unclear (to 3); NK 1 Clear (to 2)
Phase 8: LyLo with 5... 2 Clear, 2 Mafia, and 1 Unclear

If Tom is a PR, but we have a gunshot:

4 Clears: Tom (gunsmith/cop), DemonRHK (Watcher), Maniac, Last PR (gunsmith/cop)
7 Unclears: 4 VT, a Miller, a Godfather, and a Hooker

Phase 5: begins with 11; shoot 1 Unclear (to 6); lynch 1 Unclear (to 5); NK 1 Clear (to 3)
Phase 6: begins with 8; lynch 1 Unclear (to 4); NK 1 Clear (to 2)
Phase 7: LyLo with 6, 2 Clear, 2 Unclear, 2 Mafia...

Tom is not a PR, and we have a gunshot:

5 Clears: Tom, Maniac, DemonRHK (Watcher), Gunsmith, Cop
6 Unclears: 3 VT, a Miller, a Godfather, a Hooker

Phase 5: begin with 11; shoot 1 Unclear (to 5); lynch 1 unclear (to 4); NK 1 Clear (to 4)
Phase 6: begin with 8; lynch 1 Unclear (to 3); NK 1 Clear (to 3)
Phase 7: LyLo with 6... 3 Clear, 2 Mafia, 1 Unclear

[Maniac]

@Rdrivera, can I pick your brains. If you were advising the Godfather and they wanted to be in a perfect position D1 with 5 minutes to go, where would you tell him/her to be in this set-up? Their scum buddies are bold and town are some underlined.

ND (6): snowy801, bozotheclown, Rjmcf, Foxcastle, thamrick, Balki Bartokomous
Balki Bartokomous (5): MeanLaQueefa, yavuzovic, Maniac, VashtaNeurotic, Jamiet99uk
Jamiet99uk (3): , DemonRHK,brainbomb, ND,
DemonRHK (2): Tom Bombadil, Ezio
Ezio (1): reedeer1
brainbomb (1): bo_sox48
yavuzovic (1): dargorygel

TIA

[Maniac]

@Foxcastle - that's interesting. Mass role claim is bad right now. Trust me

[Foxcastle]

@Foxcastle - that's interesting. Mass role claim is bad right now. Trust me

Yeah, I'm not advocating for it, certainly not before EOD, and it's going to have to be something that the PRs decide for themselves anyway.

[Tom Bombadil]

Ok. But Balki probably needs to die for more information to be gained about D1 in particular. So if we aren't ending, I'll check back in tomorrow before EOD.

[reedeer1]

I would e happiest with a Mean or Rd lynch, but vasha or yoyo, need to start posting or die.
A balki info lynch would not be the worst person we could lynch, but I am not sure we would gain much knowledge from his lynch. Can anyone outline what we would learn if he was scum, and what we would learn if he was town?

[Tom Bombadil]

Why rd again?

He was pivotal on both the first two scum lynches. If anything, he would be godfather. This is why we need to flip Balki. If Balki is scum, fewer people get towncred for lynching jamie D1 (such as rd and Vash)

[Tom Bombadil]

Hm. Actually, it doesn't really point to him being godfather - but in my eyes, his being potential scum is contingent on Balki being scum.

[MeanLaQueefa]

When balki flips scum (not if), it should basically clear me (unless balki and I were scum vs. scumming the entire game), and also makes vash seem much better for being on the balki wagon D1. So then we start weeding out unclears through bozo and ree.

If balki turns up town, then vash and I become very suspect and you probably start with us in weeding through the unclears.

Either way, doesn't tell us a whole lot about dar/meme/yoyo or rdr