Mafia 41 - Sid Meiers Civilizaton Mafia - Official Game Thread

[bozotheclown]

However, I'm not sure about the no lynch thing being scummy.

If the SK does not hit scum N4, no lynch pushes our mislynch from D4 to D5. LordQuas has argued this is a significant town benefit because the lynch pool will be reduced, but discounts my concern that lynching scum would still be harder with a higher percentage of the remaining players being scum.

[Durga]

Imagine fox/damo/lq scum team

[Durga]

Actually yeah. SK +town would have to all vote together in that scenario

[bozotheclown]

Imagine fox/damo/lq scum team

I think damo is town. The power of the universal backup role required 10 +1s by day 2 to activate. Squigs put LordQuas and damo (as well as some others) over 10 +1s right before he was lynched. I doubt he would do that to 2 of his teammates.

[Durga]

Pretty sure this is town bozo too

[Durga]

Imagine fox/damo/lq scum team

I think damo is town. The power of the universal backup role required 10 +1s by day 2 to activate. Squigs put LordQuas and damo (as well as some others) over 10 +1s right before he was lynched. I doubt he would do that to 2 of his teammates.

Why not?

[bozotheclown]

Actually yeah. SK +town would have to all vote together in that scenario

Right, if we no lynch and the SK hits town to make it 3-3-1, all town and the SK would have to vote together D5 to prevent scum from winning. That would be a tough thing to do. The argument for no lynch is that is we mislynch and the SK hit town to make it 2-3-1, we lose before D5. However, if we mislynch D4, it gives the SK a better chance of hitting scum N4. Also, I think we are better off lynching today when we still have a 5-3-1 advantage over the scum.

[DemonRHK]

Is this Mylo

5-3-1

If we mislynch, the SK would have to hit scum or it's donezo (2-3-1, scum can force a tie at worse)

If we miss but the SK hits scum we go to D5 as 3-2-1.

The current No lynch option means we're alive D5 for sure (3-3-1 if SK misses, 4-2-1 if they get scum)

The long game is:

We lynch, and miss AND The SK kills town, D5:
Scum hits town: 2-3-1, town loses, I think SK loses by extension but weirdness could get the SK to a tie.

Scum hits SK: 3-3, auto loss

We lynch, and miss BUT The SK kills scum, D5:
Scum hits town: 3-2-1, with same situation as today (If we miss the SK had to hit or scum wins)

Scum hits SK: 4-2, MYLO

We No Lynch, SK kills town, D5:
Scum hits town: 3-3-1, LYLO

Scum hits SK: 4-3, MYLO

We No Lynch, SK kills scum, D5:
Scum hits town: 4-2-1, with same situation as today.

Scum hits SK: 5-2, 2 lynches left

If we lynch scum today we wake up 3-2-1 at worst, 5-1 at best, 4-2-1 most likely.

[bozotheclown]

Imagine fox/damo/lq scum team

I think damo is town. The power of the universal backup role required 10 +1s by day 2 to activate. Squigs put LordQuas and damo (as well as some others) over 10 +1s right before he was lynched. I doubt he would do that to 2 of his teammates.

Why not?

ANCIENT ERA KARMA TALLY

Jamiet99uk 78
Lord Quas 40
CrimsonFox 20
damo666 11
Vecna 9
Nepthys 4
bozotheclown 1
Garden Gnome 1

Squigs put all four over 10 +1s, if he was trying to activate the universal backup and cover it with WIFOM, I doubt he would choose 2 out of 4 scum, but it is possible.

[bozotheclown]

@DemonRHK: If you still disagree with the no lynch, please vote un-end.

[Durga]

Do we have any useful roles left

[Jamiet99uk]

##VOTE FOXCASTLE

[bozotheclown]

Is this Mylo

5-3-1

If we mislynch, the SK would have to hit scum or it's donezo (2-3-1, scum can force a tie at worse)

If we miss but the SK hits scum we go to D5 as 3-2-1.

The current No lynch option means we're alive D5 for sure (3-3-1 if SK misses, 4-2-1 if they get scum)

The long game is:

We lynch, and miss AND The SK kills town, D5:
Scum hits town: 2-3-1, town loses, I think SK loses by extension but weirdness could get the SK to a tie.

Scum hits SK: 3-3, auto loss

We lynch, and miss BUT The SK kills scum, D5:
Scum hits town: 3-2-1, with same situation as today (If we miss the SK had to hit or scum wins)

Scum hits SK: 4-2, MYLO

We No Lynch, SK kills town, D5:
Scum hits town: 3-3-1, LYLO

Scum hits SK: 4-3, MYLO

We No Lynch, SK kills scum, D5:
Scum hits town: 4-2-1, with same situation as today.

Scum hits SK: 5-2, 2 lynches left

If we lynch scum today we wake up 3-2-1 at worst, 5-1 at best, 4-2-1 most likely.

The SK is 2X bulletproof to the NK.

[DemonRHK]

##Unend
##Unvote

[bozotheclown]

Do we have any useful roles left

Not everyone has revealed their roles.

[Jamiet99uk]

Do we have any useful roles left

Left alive? Yes.
Left unclaimed? Impossible to know given the set up.

[DemonRHK]

Huh, I missed that. I give so little shit about the SK atm I missed that.

So ignore everything I said about scum hitting the SK and make all that x-x-1 instead.

[Durga]

What's worcej? He hasn't gotten angry and called me scum yet so I'm a little concerned

[bozotheclown]

Do we have any useful roles left

Left alive? Yes.
Left unclaimed? Impossible to know given the set up.

Jamie is the only one we know is town and he has a useful role.

[DemonRHK]

4 people have yet to claim:

bozo
Quas
Neph
worc

Of the five remaining two are confirmed (RHK & Durga), 2 un-cced (Jamie and Foxy), and 1 claimant (damo)