Mafia XXXIV Game Thread - Who Framed Roger Rabbit?

[thamrick]

You're such an asshole Tom.

##VOTE MLQ

MLQ - I want your defense to include a "why Bo is scum" line. I'd also like you to put yourself in my shoes and try to argue why I think you're scum.

[Balki Bartokomous]

Not to distract you from the Yav reread Balki, as I find it a very entertaining read, but I think you'll be disappointed by your current scumreads. If you had to drop 1 of the 3 from the list, who would you drop?

I would drop Captainmeme. That read is based on remnanats of Darg's participation and a lot of inactivity. But there could be lots of NAI explanations for inactivity, and the Darg read was so early, before anything really happened.

Though, I'm reasonably sure captainmeme stayed out of the Yavuz/ND stuff, which is consistent with Scum Meme.*

* Sadly, also consistent with Town Lurker Meme

[DemonRHK]

Day 1, same style:

Jamie: RHK, brain, ND, rd, reedeer, snowy, Balki, Vash, yavu
ND: bozo, RJ, Fox, tham
RHK: Tom, Ezio
Balki: MLQ, Maniac
yavu: meme (was darg's vote)
brain: bo
Vash: Jamie

Scum on Vash and ND. Dropping me and the clears; Then those that were active in the last hour:

Jamie: rd, reedeer, Balki, Vash
ND: bozo, **RJ**, Fox, tham
Balki: MLQ
yavu: meme
brain: bo
Vash: **Jamie**

And then those that voted against the Scum in that period:

Jamie: rd, reedeer, Balki, Vash
ND: bozo, **RJ**, Fox, tham
Balki: MLQ
yavu: meme
brain: bo
Vash: **Jamie**

Now, let's compare with day 2, and to be fair to tham, I'll add rd and myself back, as well as RJ:

Day 1

Jamie: RHK, rd, reedeer, Balki, Vash
ND: bozo, **RJ**, Fox, tham
Balki: MLQ
yavu: meme
brain: bo
Vash: **Jamie**

-----

Day 2

RJ: Fox, Vash, rd
Vash: RHK, Balki, bozo, MLQ, tham
ND: bo
Ezio: reedeer, meme
Tom: **RJ**

-----

While this is all from a pure statistical standpoint, Balki and tham look terrible. Vash is about the same as them, only missing the 2nd strike D2 becuase he was the counterwagon, and people not named RHK don't vote for themselves.

- I don't see both MLQ and Balki as scum, there was too much tunnel from MLQ for them to be a scumteam.
- I still believe the same thing for Fox and tham. Maybe one, but not both.

I am still secure in my bozo vote. rd, meme, and Balki are the others I'm comfortable voting.

[Maniac]

"I'm like the most pleasant person here."

Hey I'm the most pleasantest mofo.

[Tom Bombadil]

So in my reread of the past 72 hours of so, bo looks pretty towny. This is based not on votes but just feeling based on his posts. In particular his reactions and stances in the yavu claim situation seem organic and towny - especially since as Balki stated earlier scum could sit back and watch town explode since they knew both were town.

[Tom Bombadil]

Maniac: You already are the handsomest. Leave something for me.

[thamrick]

@RHK - why are you opposed to voting MLQ? She comes up just as much in your analysis as Balki?

[bozotheclown]

I understand the arguments that Vashta looks better after the Rjmcf lynch, but I still maintain that it is possible they were both scum based on the way the Vashta wagon developed.

[thamrick]

So in my reread of the past 72 hours of so, bo looks pretty towny. This is based not on votes but just feeling based on his posts. In particular his reactions and stances in the yavu claim situation seem organic and towny - especially since as Balki stated earlier scum could sit back and watch town explode since they knew both were town.

Agree to disagree.

[thamrick]

@RHK - can you summarize your argument for voting Bozo?

[bozotheclown]

@Demon:

You dropped rdrivera from your suspects based on your D2 analysis saying “rd looks good here, his vote making it 6-5 Vash from 6-4 Vash”. First of all, I assume this is based on the assumption that Vashta is town. However, even if Vashta is town, this would be a reasonable time for rdrivera to bus. Vashta had gone from 1 vote to 6 votes in minutes, and Maniac, who seemed to start the Vashta wagon by advocating it, had not voted yet. Rdrivera could have felt switching from Ezio to Rjmcf instead of Vashta 6 minutes before EOD was a reasonably safe way to end on a scum wagon while Vashta would be lynched. rdrivera did the same thing D1, switching from Ezio to Jamie 5 minute before EOD making the vote ND 6, Balki 5, Jamie 4 from ND 6, Balki 5, Jamie 3. Again, he could have felt it was a safe bus with both ND and Balki still ahead of Jamie.

One of the reasons reedeer looks suspicious is because of the way he was following rdrivera’s votes D1 and D2 after listing rdrivera as his top scum read. I do not know how experienced reedeer is, but it seems like reedeer could have been making an inexperience scum mistake following his teammate after trying to bus him early. During D2 rdrivera questions reedeer for following his vote. It looks like rdrivera could have been warning reedeer to stop doing it knowing how bad it looked and was trying to distance himself from reedeer by bring it up before anyone else did. I think there is a good case that rdrivera and reedeer are both scum.

[MeanLaQueefa]

God it feels like day one again, giving a multiple page argument on why balki is scum.

My feelings on balki are a long and complicated tale. It starts with a little man named tom bombadil throwing a random gut vote on a chap named demon early on D1. Balki asked questions that heavily implied accusations at demon, who was the only one under serious pressure at the time. Balki then apologized and backed off the exchange without voting demon, but definitely hurting his reputation and contributing to why he was a wagon all of day 1. I theorized for a long time that this was balki trying to throw shade without having to own up to it, and still think it looks very scummy. Go back and reread that interaction, especially now that we basically know demon is town.

My large case against him on D1 and D2 stemmed from him always asking the dumbest questions but conducting himself as a intelligent person. Brain and others I think have also attested to balki's great play in the past, especially as scum. I theorized that he was trying to mastermind interactions and throw shade by asking dumb questions that were a bit accusatory to seem involved in pushing for scum and making those people look scummy as a result, but without looking like the wagon starter himself. In demon's case he backed off and it looked to me like he tried to wash his hands of it. In my experience the towny players like to go all in when they see something off, maybe he just had a change of heart, but it does line up well with what I'd expect a scum player with his personality and apparent history to try and do. I kept pushing him on a lot of things that looking back weren't necessarily scum indicative but I saw them as possibly being scummy because I had the preconceived notion that he was.

When jamie flipped, I thought I may have been concentrating on balki too much because I failed to see jamie as scum, but then I went back and reread balki and still had the same feelings and kept pushing him. After the rjm flip, however, I really felt like I needed to stop focusing on balki because I was clearly missing things in the game so I backed off him for a while and he made some towny seeming comments which had me feeling better about him without seriously looking at him.

However, since I've backed off him, he's been tunneling me hard, despite the fact that when I first accused him he thought I was town. All this tunneling is really making me reconsider my previous position that he's too smart to be acting this dumb. Tunneling me gives him a great position as scum because he doesn't have to town read anyone, he doesn't have to work to solve the game (and he really hasn't done much) and he can just park an easy vote on me whenever he needs to if there isn't other drama going on. I really feel scum would do this, the advantages are pretty obvious, and it is an easy ticket to the late game where a player like him can do a lot of damage.

Then there's the switch off yav to ND yesterday. I feel like Balki would be the kind of arrogant scum that would try to lynch a cop claimant but then as soon as he realized it wasn't going to work out, was smart enough to switch to the safe wagon to avoid suspicion. He does this on D1 too, being on Jamie for a good portion of the day, switching to ND even as jamie and ND are getting close in the votes and then switches back to jamie at the last moment. He is a player who has repeatedly changed his position last minute to the wagon where he'd get less scrutiny, almost like he knows the outcome before it happens. He also found his way onto vash in day 2, which some townies did as well (myself included), so it isn't as strong a scummy vote as other days, but mafia would want to protect the witch if they can and would probably vote for rjm's opposing wagon, vash.

His reads EoN 3 don't make sense to me, he scum read yav, me, bo and meme. Meme and me make sense, he's been tunneling me forever and meme hasn't done enough and had some mildly scummy moments. However, why was he scum reading Bo AND Yav? Bo tried to lynch yav about as much as someone could yesterday. Why would he do that if he knew yav was his scum buddy? There wasn't a significant push for yav, besides demon's vote, until bo started pushing him. This feels very much like the reads of somebody who already knew yav was going to flip town and was already scoping out new targets. Bo makes sense to scum read AFTER the yav reveal, but looks very towny if you're scum reading yav. This doesn't make sense for a towny who doesn't have alignment info on yav.

Even before ND and yav's flip, balki is trying to say yav claimed with the purpose of protecting me because I was in the lead that day "in a runaway," which a runaway to balki means I had two votes and was tied with Rdr. He has noted his mistake already, but it feels off, and the fact that even while all the ND and yav drama was going on, he wasn't trying to figure it out, he was trying to find a way to tie it back to me doesn't seem very towny to me. We obviously know now, regardless of my alignment, that yav didn't try to protect me because he was a clueless towny.

I'm really feeling balki again, and bozo is doing some talking and analysis that seemed towny, and while I hope it keeps up, I think the pressure accomplished its task, so ##vote Balki.

You know what else, I think pretty much everyone here agrees that one of balki or I are scum, including both balki and I. Let's just do this, let's end this shit, worst case scenario by most everyone's assertion is we lynch a town first and then a scum, 1 for 1 is a town win right now, I'm willing to die to expose Balki, if he really is the player brain said he is and the player I think he is, he cannot be allowed into the late game. I ask that the various town clears agree to allow us to fight to the death, knowing that the information coming from the death of one of us will provide a lot of information for town. People like meme, bozo, reedeer and such can wait, I think most of you would agree that balki and I would be the more dangerous scum to leave alive. I've had the strongest bad feelings about him since day 1, I'm willing to die exposing him if I need to.

[thamrick]

Gauntlet = thrown

[Balki Bartokomous]

I ask that the various town clears agree to allow us to fight to the death, knowing that the information coming from the death of one of us will provide a lot of information for town.

Agreed. You die first. If you are Town, I'll put the rope around my neck myself.

I'll respond to your points in a bit. You have a fundamental problem in your analysis. It rears it's head at every turn. This is probably because you are faking it. All you do is come up with a scum motivation for each action, then you state what the scum motivation is. When someone is actually trying to solve the puzzle they do this: figure out the possible Town motivation, and the possible Scum motivation, and consider which on is more likely.

[Balki Bartokomous]

This flaw infects your analysis of me all game. You are not trying to understand what narrative is more likely. You are trying to smear me with one possible reason why scum might do an action.

Any vote to lynch Scum "could be" because the person voting is scum who wants to get Town cred.

Any vote to lynch Town "could be" because the person voting wants the townie to die and wants someone else to live.

You write a lot of words, but you stay on the surface. You simply assert the scum side of every coin. You don't look at both sides, and analyze which is more likely.

I have had this problem with you since you first started talking about me in the first 10 or so pages of the game. All you do is smear. You only started asking questions after I called you out for not asking me questions. And even then, you haven't engaged with me. You don't want to engage with me because you are worried you will be exposed.

Engage with me now. Tell me what action I've taken is the most damning in your mind. Tell me what I've said my town motivation is for that action or say that I've never explained it, and then weigh the two possible explanations.

Let's go.

[thamrick]

@Balki - how would you feel about your argument if you were the one to die first?

##VOTE Balki

[DemonRHK]

@RHK - why are you opposed to voting MLQ? She comes up just as much in your analysis as Balki?

It's not that I'm opposed. It's that from the way I look at it, only one of Mean and Balki can really be scum, and my Balki read is harder than my Mean read in that respect.

@RHK - can you summarize your argument for voting Bozo?

Bozo has lurked pretty hard, his voting history leaves a ton to be desired (The sole reason he didn't look as bad as balki D1 is because he wasn't around), and was hedged by Jamie D1 as well (Jamie's other hedge being Steve)

@bozo: I think the voting history is a stretch. The better case against reedeer is him claiming not to be trying to lurk, while lurking his ass off. I feel he's not currently a top contender for anything other than a policy lynch.

[Balki Bartokomous]

@Balki - how would you feel about your argument if you were the one to die first?

##VOTE Balki

I don't want to die first. I'm town. And I'm not going to fall on my sword because scum says they want me to die.

[thamrick]

I'm sure Mean would argue the same thing. I say we let town decide rather than have a pre-arranged order.

[Balki Bartokomous]

The oldest scummy scumtrick in the whole scumbook is this:

"Say 'I don't care if I die.' and then everyone will think you are town because scum really care if they die."