Mafia round 93: hot potato! (game thread)

[JustAGuyNamedWill]

So basically, our consensus is that bo and rdr is the scumteam. We essentially win if thats the case

Because even in worst case scenario, where we kill the person who has the RP (lets say bo) and he takes Dip with him, its now 3-1. However, after the NK, we’ll be 2-1, with a townie having the couch potato.

While this may seem bleak, it’ll tie 1-1. However, after the next nightkill, it will be 1 townie vs 1 scum, and if the CP holder is smart, they’ll have passed it to the scum. Thus, in a 1 v 1, town will kill the last remaining scum with a singular vote

Wow

[DreamTrawler]

So basically, our consensus is that bo and rdr is the scumteam. We essentially win if thats the case

Because even in worst case scenario, where we kill the person who has the RP (lets say bo) and he takes Dip with him, its now 3-1. However, after the NK, we’ll be 2-1, with a townie having the couch potato.

While this may seem bleak, it’ll tie 1-1. However, after the next nightkill, it will be 1 townie vs 1 scum, and if the CP holder is smart, they’ll have passed it to the scum. Thus, in a 1 v 1, town will kill the last remaining scum with a singular vote

Wow

This is assuming no hot potatoes blow up

[DreamTrawler]

The fact that nobody has claimed to pass me a potato means that scum has the RP

Which one of them do you think has the RP?

[JustAGuyNamedWill]

The fact that nobody has claimed to pass me a potato means that scum has the RP

Which one of them do you think has the RP?

Probably rdr

[JustAGuyNamedWill]

So basically, our consensus is that bo and rdr is the scumteam. We essentially win if thats the case

Because even in worst case scenario, where we kill the person who has the RP (lets say bo) and he takes Dip with him, its now 3-1. However, after the NK, we’ll be 2-1, with a townie having the couch potato.

While this may seem bleak, it’ll tie 1-1. However, after the next nightkill, it will be 1 townie vs 1 scum, and if the CP holder is smart, they’ll have passed it to the scum. Thus, in a 1 v 1, town will kill the last remaining scum with a singular vote

Wow

This is assuming no hot potatoes blow up

Yeah, but we can’t know for sure if a hot potato wont blow up the mafia too. I’m kinda discounting them as a factor because they are RNG and we can’t control them

[DreamTrawler]

I’m leaning towards Rdr over Bo for the selfish reason of townclearing myself. Thoughts?

[Spartaculous]

GM POST

Vote count 6.4

bo_sox48 (2): JustAGuyNamedWill DreamTrawler
rdrivera2005 (1): Kakarroto
DreamTrawler (1): bo_sox48
Kakarroto (1): DiplomacyandWarfare
No‑Kill (1): rdrivera2005

bo_sox48 is still about to become potato salad. Two and a half hours remain in the phase.

[DreamTrawler]

I’m leaning towards Rdr over Bo for the selfish reason of townclearing myself. Thoughts?

Either Kaka needs to flip onto Bo or me and Will need to flip onto Rivera. Can’t risk a last minute tie.

[JustAGuyNamedWill]

I’m leaning towards Rdr over Bo for the selfish reason of townclearing myself. Thoughts?

Either Kaka needs to flip onto Bo or me and Will need to flip onto Rivera. Can’t risk a last minute tie.

I’m willing to flip onto rivera. I think its both bo and rivera

[Kakarroto]

bo_sox's only likely pair is rdr (if rdr had the couch potato last night (it's not passed at EoN) then they might've decided to target the sp holder to remove an anti-pairing mechanism while also potentially generating some towncred for bo_sox under the basis that bo_sox wouldn't waste a kill close to town losing vote majority), but rdr is far more likely to be holding the rp at this point
anyways kak-dream is still possible
I might not make EoD today, and if I do, it won't be for long, so I will ##vote bo_sox
bo_sox, if you are town, you should probably be throwing any hot potatoes to kakarroto

you think RD has the rotten potato? First I thought bo has it, with RD and Dream having that exchange yesterday, and if I don't misremember, RD said he would send it back? Then again, he claimed that he didn't put in a target and it went random. Hmm. That could be a sneaky lie to mask that he indeed had sent to Will and got the rotten potato. Or it actually was random.

Although, maybe he did another throw; didn't you say, dip, that you got a hot potato too? Or am I misremembering? Sorry if I'm wrong but it could be that he sent that hot potato to you and just masks that throw with just saying he couldn't put a target in. He used that excuse before, right?

Then again it could be that RD send the hot potato to Will and bo to you. So I guess we can't really say who has it.

But one thing we can probably be sure of: RD didn't send the hot potato intentionally to Dream. So either a 50/50 directed throw to Will or dip, or a random throw.

But then we also have 3 hot potato receiver claimants. Will, dip and Dream. We know Dream sent his to RD the day before, and I to bo. So the third came from where?

ok here

Why did you throw your potato to me Yazu?

Okay here is the deal. We kill you today, I throw my potato to bo. No sweet potato wasted. At least one scum gone.

Wait heck I was already throwing my potato to bo_?

so yav probably was the second one who sent to bo. Or maybe it was dip? From this post here

For death tracking purposes, current HP holders are me, Chaqa, Kaka, Dip, and Yavu.

dip had another hot potato at the time? Aren't we one hot potato short then? Or did Dream make a mistake here? Hmm if that isn't a mistake, then maybe mafia held for whatever reason their nk and two potatoes canceled themselves out? Is that what happened?

Hmm. Lets think this through. Both Chaqa and yavu had a hot potato, with yavu being the lead wagon, and afterwards three wagons on 1 (Chaqa, bo, no-kill). What if yavu's and Chaqa's hot potato exploded? And the vote didn't go through because afterwards, there was a tie?

=====

##ask GM in the case above, IF both yavu's and chaqa's potato exploded before they could throw it, and then there is a tie between bo and no-kill, would the day end theoretically in a tie? Is that a possibility? Or would something else have happened?

=====

if that's what has happened, that would explain why only three hot potatoes are reported. Or maybe someone didn't report one? That's much more complicated than I thought, I thought with yavu's post that that would mean he had thrown his to bo, but maybe it exploded before the dayvote would take him? But that all would mean that we can't know for sure who had which hot potato, and that means we can't calculate an exact probability for who threw to Will. So it's just a big guessing game. Ugh.

[DreamTrawler]

I’m leaning towards Rdr over Bo for the selfish reason of townclearing myself. Thoughts?

Either Kaka needs to flip onto Bo or me and Will need to flip onto Rivera. Can’t risk a last minute tie.

I’m willing to flip onto rivera. I think its both bo and rivera

Ok let’s do it. Hopefully I’m not being played by a Bo-Will scumpair lol

##vote Rdrivera2005

[Kakarroto]

after further consideration, I will ##vote kakarroto given that if rdr is scum, we can afford one incorrect town vote, while we cannot if rdr is town
unless I am here at EoD, kakarroto must be the daykill unless rdr is scum. Therefore, I recommend consolidating onto either kakarroto or either rdr or bo_sox, depending on which of the two it seems most likely has the rp

good luck

that's not a good idea. I'm town and I'm pretty sure RD is mafia, so if we don't get mafia today it will be 2-2 for tomorrows votes if no hot potato explodes.

But if you think I am mafia, since RD is throwing the couch potato to me, or at least he claims to, that would mean for you that mafia would only have one vote tomorrow, right? I mean I'm not, but even if you think I'm mafia, it would be still save for you.

Only in the case if we both are town, him throwing the couch potato to me would be practically losing, if we don't get lucky with the hot potatoes. I think the much better throw is for RD to throw to bo in almost every case, or I've totally misread the game. I doubt though that RD would do something like that.

[Kakarroto]

I feel strongly that it’s Bo-Rivera but I’m not sure who should be voted first. Either way the other one should have potatoes thrown to them. And we need to have 3 on our leading candidate to prevent any last minute ties.

yeah, at first I thought it's much more likely that bo has the rotten potato, but after rethinking the whole shebang it's totally unpredictable, if two potatoes exploded yesterday

[Kakarroto]

I’m leaning towards Rdr over Bo for the selfish reason of townclearing myself. Thoughts?

Either Kaka needs to flip onto Bo or me and Will need to flip onto Rivera. Can’t risk a last minute tie.

yeah, at this point it's probably a 50/50 flip on who has the rotten potato. I'm good with any of the two, I will do my part that we have at least 3 votes on either of them.

[DreamTrawler]

I have a potato tracking post saved as a draft. Let me post it and let’s see if we can figure out what happened.

[DreamTrawler]

D1:
BunnyGo: HP, Chaqa
Chaqa: HP, Jamie
DiplomacyandWarfare: RP
DreamTrawler: HP, Control V
ghug: HP, ?
Jamie: HP, Chaqa
Kakarroto: CP, brainbomb
miminena: SP, bozo
Red Neurax: HP, damo

N1:
bo_sox: 1 HP, Just
bozo: SP, BunnyGo
brainbomb: CP
Chaqa: 2 HPs, bo_sox, ghug
Control V: 1 HP, miminena
damo: 1 HP, random player
DiplomacyandWarfare: RP
Jamie: 2 HPs, brainbomb, DiplomacyandWarfare

D2:
bo_sox: 1 HP, rdrivera
brainbomb: CP, 1 HP
BunnyGo: SP, miminena
DiplomacyandWarfare: 2 HPs, 1 RP
Will: 2 HPs, brainbomb
miminena: 1 HP, Chaqa

N2:
brainbomb: 2 HPs
Chaqa: 2 HPs, Just, rdrivera
DiplomacyandWarfare: RP
Jamie: 1 HP
Will: CP
miminena: SP; 1 HP, BunnyGo
rdrivera: 1 HP, damo

D3:
bo_sox: 1 HP
BunnyGo: 1 HP, bozo
damo: 2 HPs
DiplomacyandWarfare: 1 HP, 1 RP
Just: CP, 1 HP
rdrivera: SP, DreamTrawler; 1 HP, Chaqa

N3:
bo_sox: 2 HPs
bozo: 1 HP (exploded)
Chaqa: 1 HP, DreamTrawler
Control V: 1 HP, rdrivera
Will: 1 HP, Control V
DreamTrawler: SP, BunnyGo
DiplomacyandWarfare: RP

D4:
rdrivera: 1 HP, random target
Chaqa: 1 HP
Dream: 1 HP, rdrivera
Will: 1 HP, random target
Control V: 1 HP
Dip&War: 1 HP, 1 RP
Kaka: CP
BunnyGo: SP, Dip&War

N4:
yavuzovic: 1 HP, DreamTrawler
rdrivera: 1 HP, Chaqa
BunnyGo: 1 HP, Kakarroto
Kaka: Couch Potato, Will
Dip&War: SP, bo_sox48; 1 RP, stolen by Rdrivera

D5:
DreamTrawler: 1 HP, rdrivera
Chaqa: 1 HP (exploded)
Kakarroto: 1 HP, Bo_Sox
yavuzovic: 1 HP
Dip&War: 1 HP
Bo_Sox: Sweet Potato
JustAGuyNamedWill: Couch Potato, Rdrivera
Rdrivera: Rotten Potato, stolen by Will

N5:
Rdrivera: 1 HP
Bo_Sox: 1 HP
Dip&War: 1 HP
JustAGuyNamedWill: Rotten Potato, stolen by Rivera, Bo, or Dip
Rdrivera: Couch Potato
Dip&War: Sweet Potato (eliminated)

D6:
DreamTrawler: 1 HP
Rdrivera: Couch Potato
JustAGuyNamedWill: 1 HP
Dip&War: 1 HP

[DreamTrawler]

It is plausible that Yavu’s potato exploded, if so there are only 3 left in the game. Also the RP is with either Dip, Bo, or Rivera. I think it’s probably Bo.

[Spartaculous]

<snip>

##ask GM in the case above, IF both yavu's and chaqa's potato exploded before they could throw it, and then there is a tie between bo and no-kill, would the day end theoretically in a tie? Is that a possibility? Or would something else have happened?

<snip>

Sorry, I got a bit lost here. Are you asking about a tie on a previous day? Or about how a tie would/could be handled today?

[Kakarroto]

It is plausible that Yavu’s potato exploded, if so there are only 3 left in the game. Also the RP is with either Dip, Bo, or Rivera. I think it’s probably Bo.

that was my first instinct. I'm not too sure anymore, thinking about all the ifs and whats, but that wo uld explain why bo is absent and silent. I kinda would expect him to fight against accusations, but him not reacting could very well be a try to take one with him.

Or I'm reading too much into it.

[Kakarroto]

<snip>

##ask GM in the case above, IF both yavu's and chaqa's potato exploded before they could throw it, and then there is a tie between bo and no-kill, would the day end theoretically in a tie? Is that a possibility? Or would something else have happened?

<snip>

Sorry, I got a bit lost here. Are you asking about a tie on a previous day? Or about how a tie would/could be handled today?

theoretically:

when the lead wagon at the end of the day explodes due to a potato, it should go to the number two wagon, right? But, if there is a tie (even a three person tie) (and even if one of those three persons explodes too so it is only a two person tie) then the dayvote ends in a no-kill due to the tie ... but we wouldn't know because the death isn't known in the flavour.

So in that case, we wouldn't have an idea if that lead wagon exploded or if it was the dayvote, right?