Mafia round 93: hot potato! (game thread)

[BunnyGo]

Well…maybe scum won’t waste their NK on me and the potato won’t go boom

[JustAGuyNamedWill]

Why did that send twice?

Anyhow, we’re 2\2 so far the past two phases, let’s kill Chaqa next!

[yavuzovic]

Good job!
*Also*

[rdrivera2005]

Gear work guys, sorry for missing EOD.

I also forgot to enter order to my HP so it could have ended with Bunny or someone else, I am really sorry for this, it's a big mistake that could cost us.

I confirm I got an HP and I already entered order to throw it

[DreamTrawler]

Two people claiming to have messed up their potato throw is a bit sus.

[JustAGuyNamedWill]

Sorry Bunny

Also i didnt receive a potato, just a nudge from the gm

[rdrivera2005]

Two people claiming to have messed up their potato throw is a bit sus.

I can't say it isn't, but it's true, at least one my side.

[JustAGuyNamedWill]

Two people claiming to have messed up their potato throw is a bit sus.

Yes, but what motivation would we have for giving bunny a potato? The chance of him dying from it is low and if the mafia kills like me or dip here then it just helps town to have an authority figure like bunny to lead

[bo_sox48]

Two posts (1/2):

I also find it hard to believe that there wasn't a busser on Control there, and I think Dream is my lead candidate for that. Likewise, I see Dream making very little effort on D4 despite a high post count, which is what the first post is focused on simply because it catches my eye.

Dream's scumreads consist of the following as of early D4. I'll focus on Control, rdrivera, and yav.

The number of people sussing on chaqa and then NOBODY trying to push his wagon is staggering

How strongly do you feel about Chaqa? I’ll vote if you can convince me, he’s like 4th on my scumreads rn

Basically I think that:

There are 2 scum in Control, rdrivera, yavuzovic

1 scum in Chaqa, Kaka, Will, Bo

and 0 in me you and Dip

Dream wrote this earlier in the day, reaffirming that rdrivera and yav are in his most favored scum group. Consistency is good.

I feel like the Bozo flip made Kak seem more towny to me, not less. Curious what people's arguments are.

I would like to vote within the following pool today: Control V, rdrivera2005, yavuzovic, Chaqa. All 4 have managed to coast by and have made some really inopportune votes without explaining in the past. Of these four if Rdrivera is scum it confirms me as town and if Control V is scum I would like to think it implies I am town so I'd rather vote one of those two.

The extra bit about rdrivera is interesting, and that reminded me of this vote from early on D4.

Ok, gonna log off for a bit. For now ##vote rdrivera2005 for purely selfish reasons (clearing myself). And for being on damo wagon twice.

Following these posts, Dream made no effort to get rdrivera at all - no case, no questions, no nothing. Just kinda forgot about them. Dream asked a few questions of Control, tried (at Bunny's behest) to get a little something going against Chaqa, but nothing on rdrivera. And yet, near the end of the day, this:

Why you are so sure I am scum? We have only one miskill left probably and you seems to not give a shit. Your best reasoning is that if I am scum it will clear you. Guess what, I am not and you will probably die next and if you are town, we just lose.
I am really starting to hope you are scum instead of a useless town.

I'm the only vote on you, you're not dying today.

Essentially, Dream isn't really pushing rdrivera at all, just voting for them and leaving some open-ended "it will clear me so it's worth it" deal on the table while doing no real work. It's lurking without lurking - parking your vote and hiding it. (And, in a backward fashion to what Dream believes, I feel like this behavior largely clears rdr if Dream is scum.)

I won't bore you with more quotes, but Yav saw similar inaction from Dream today. One could argue that Dream was shockingly consistent, really - voting for rdrivera, one of three, early on, and then helping to wagon Control late, but no questioning yav at all? No investigating? It just strikes me as odd.

[bo_sox48]

2/2:

Control, the third in the group of three, was asked one question on D4:

@Control V Day 1 and 2 you were hard scumreading me and leading the case against me but with (IMO) flimsy evidence. Now I'm a leading wagon but you seem to be townreading me even though by my own admission I look sus rn. Why?

Control answered that question, and Dream did not press it farther.

The reason I can see Dream as a busser is simply because Dream actually started Control's wagon with a couple hours to go, putting Control in contention. Prior to this, Control only had one vote against them from Will, who did so at the beginning of the day and wasn't active to push it. About two hours left in the day:

##vote Control V

Want to see how this plays out.

No questions were asked of Control after this vote so I ask Dream what, precisely, did you want to see play out? You did nothing but drop a vote and then begin backtracking it.

The number of people sussing on chaqa and then NOBODY trying to push his wagon is staggering

How strongly do you feel about Chaqa? I’ll vote if you can convince me, he’s like 4th on my scumreads rn

Shortly after:

I’ll start ##vote Chaqa

And then, shortly after again, when Control faced a lot more heat:

##vote Control V

Let’s see some movement.

It's a weird EOD progression, one that hinges on cases others are making and wagons others are pushing despite all day long Dream firmly believing that he had a 2-in-3 chance of finding scum in Control, rdrivera, and yavuzovic. Yet they did little to nothing to forward that goal. Just happened to land in the right spot.

[JustAGuyNamedWill]

Chaqa/Dream/Kak is the poe

Bo outside of it

[JustAGuyNamedWill]

If no really is mafia he’s putting in damn good effort to look townie

[JustAGuyNamedWill]

Chaqa/Dream/Kak is the poe

Bo outside of it

Oops, meant rdr instead of bo

[bo_sox48]

The number of people sussing on chaqa and then NOBODY trying to push his wagon is staggering

Assuming my theory that Control made that desperate post to get Kaka because he and potentially one of his teammates was feeling some heat, I think Chaqa makes the most sense on account of a townclear openly pushing for his demise shortly prior. Chaqa probably makes sense for a mass of potatoes at this juncture, or we can just revisit him and see what we think the old fashioned way.

Sorry explain this? You think Control was trying to save Chaqa because of Bunny starting the Chaqa wagon?

I don't have a high degree of confidence that that is the case, but in the event I was correct in my assessment that a teammate of his could have also been under fire and he panicked Chaqa would make the most sense to me. Independent of my light scumread on Chaqa and Control's flip, it is just as likely that the timing between Bunny pushing Chaqa and Control basically telling on himself is a coincidence, but it's worth considering the possibility.

[yavuzovic]

Two people claiming to have messed up their potato throw is a bit sus.

Nobody claimed to throw it to me, although I could see it coming. Maybe I have one of the randomized ones.
Maybe my last message was unclear, so I would like to make it clearer:
• I have 1 hot potato

[DreamTrawler]

@Bo I can respond to your points in a sec

[bo_sox48]

@bo I had my vote for control loaded in a browser before I voted for kaka. Wanted to see who would jump.

Cute lol

[yavuzovic]

Chaqa/Dream/Kak is the poe

Bo outside of it

Oops, meant rdr instead of bo

Why not me?
Just curious

[BunnyGo]

Chaqa/Dream/Kak is the poe

Bo outside of it

Not rdr?

[BunnyGo]

Chaqa/Dream/Kak is the poe

Bo outside of it

Not rdr?

Dream and rdr are not BOTH mafia…and of the two I’m starting to think rdr is the more likely but maybe neither.