Mafia round 93: hot potato! (game thread)

[DreamTrawler]

I think starting this round we need to start mass-potatoing people. At EoD there will be 3-4 active potatoes.

Potatoes become active at night. There are currently only 2 active HPs (or 1 if one exploded last night).

Ah, nevermind then.

[JustAGuyNamedWill]

@bozo
you should stop pretending not to be online (you posted one time in the middle of this argument), and say the following:

Why is damo the main wagon instead of dip when dip has been blatantly lying?
%%vote diplomacyandpotatoes

It took me a good 5 seconds to figure out wtf was going on

[DiplomacyandWarfare]

vanishing now
damo chaqa yavuzovic rdr

[JustAGuyNamedWill]

Dip form a towncore with me just for the day and lets investigate bozo

Bozo has done very little imo and it seems like he’s coasting

[JustAGuyNamedWill]

vanishing now
damo chaqa yavuzovic rdr

Yeah this is close but I’d substitute in Kak for damo and someone like bozo for rdr

[JustAGuyNamedWill]

why is like 2/3rds of the game scummy

[damo666]

I think starting this round we need to start mass-potatoing people. At EoD there will be 3-4 active potatoes.

Potatoes become active at night. There are currently only 2 active HPs (or 1 if one exploded last night).

there were 2 active HPs
50% chance exactly one explodes (barring sweet potato and whatever)
how does that compare to the chance the rotten potato activated?
wait
didn't jamie claim to have had the rotten potato?

2 1/16
0 9/16
1 3/8

[DiplomacyandWarfare]

Dip form a towncore with me just for the day and lets investigate bozo

Bozo has done very little imo and it seems like he’s coasting

obviously bozo is scum
but bozo is passive and can be picked off after we deal with damo, who is loudly attempting to obfuscate info

[DiplomacyandWarfare]

Potatoes become active at night. There are currently only 2 active HPs (or 1 if one exploded last night).

there were 2 active HPs
50% chance exactly one explodes (barring sweet potato and whatever)
how does that compare to the chance the rotten potato activated?
wait
didn't jamie claim to have had the rotten potato?

2 1/16
0 9/16
1 3/8

that's right, I was using a 50% chance instead of a 25% chance, the latter of which is accurate

[DiplomacyandWarfare]

why is like 2/3rds of the game scummy

Oh, have you noticed?

[DiplomacyandWarfare]

vanishing now
damo chaqa yavuzovic rdr

Yeah this is close but I’d substitute in Kak for damo and someone like bozo for rdr

kak is heavily posting and shit
much better than damo, who is inflating postcounts with absurdly short posts

[DiplomacyandWarfare]

I am relatively confident in both dreamtrawler and mimi being town rn so go ahead and pair me with them, I will treat that as a townread

[miminena]

Dip you’re sorely mistake ifyou think I’m gonna try and figure out your real plan I’m lowkey too lazy

Who do you think was the NK? I personally think it was Jamie. What conclusions if any did you draw from it?

can someone please explain to me why jamie being killed and bb exploding is more likely than bb just having told the truth and was targeted by scum to get two players out? it feels well within the idea of him being prone to fakeclaim that he would honestly claim to have the rotten potato but lie about who he was targeting to try to bait scum

[miminena]

Dip you’re sorely mistake ifyou think I’m gonna try and figure out your real plan I’m lowkey too lazy

Who do you think was the NK? I personally think it was Jamie. What conclusions if any did you draw from it?

can someone please explain to me why jamie being killed and bb exploding is more likely than bb just having told the truth and was targeted by scum to get two players out? it feels well within the idea of him being prone to fakeclaim that he would honestly claim to have the rotten potato but lie about who he was targeting to try to bait scum

someone other than damo since he's already explained to me and i doubt everyone has the same motivations

[miminena]

vanishing now
damo chaqa yavuzovic rdr

Yeah this is close but I’d substitute in Kak for damo and someone like bozo for rdr

this doesn't feel good for will imo esp if damo flips scum

and also if damo/dw is t/t i'd venture to say that we're screwed anyways but who knows

[miminena]

I think starting this round we need to start mass-potatoing people. At EoD there will be 3-4 active potatoes.

Potatoes become active at night. There are currently only 2 active HPs (or 1 if one exploded last night).

there were 2 active HPs
50% chance exactly one explodes (barring sweet potato and whatever)
how does that compare to the chance the rotten potato activated?
wait
didn't jamie claim to have had the rotten potato?

jamie claimed to have had rp d2, bb claimed to have it n2

[miminena]

will definitely reads as a scum with a partner on the line who is trying to save them while also hedging enough to have an out if it feels hopeless. also shading bozo is generally unproductive atm imo although i'm not going to criticize someone's methodology

[DreamTrawler]

will definitely reads as a scum with a partner on the line who is trying to save them while also hedging enough to have an out if it feels hopeless. also shading bozo is generally unproductive atm imo although i'm not going to criticize someone's methodology

Seconding this

[miminena]

if i had to solve now it would be damo/will/dt/+1 with the +1 being a low-poster. the chances of this being correct are low but the chances of it being pure are imo even lower

damo i've generally explained, but him/dip is almost never t/t. the main thing is that he's pushing a narrative very strongly of motivations behind the night kills, which happen to likely implicate him if another interpretation is to be accepted

will i've also explained; he's hedging on damo enough to try to prevent him from going over but also to hop on for enough credit on the wagon if it comes down to it

dt is an interesting one since i feel like he is scummy no matter what damo flips but it's almost always better to flip damo first. he's soft pushing the same narrative as damo (which will, i forgot to mention, is also doing) but is at the bat of an eye sheeping reads against damo which just feels weird. i think he is likely paired with damo or could possibly be scum and damo/dw is t/t. idt he's paired w/ dw

the low poster is most likely chaqa or yavuz by poe but if damo and dt are both indeed scum i would want to look more into ctrl possibly hellbussing and being the intended deep member. possibly this slot could be filled by the higher posters of bo or bunny but a bit unlikely imo

i do think that will/kak/bo/ctrl are more likely town than not given the bb kill unless we can prove for sure it was a potato death (which i just find less likely than it being a rp kill)

i should consider a scum dw world more thoroughly since that's almost every world where damo is town

[rdrivera2005]

Dream is moving ever so slightly up my readslist. Still not out of the woods but looking mildly better

I’m going to move rdr out of my townreads because I put him there and haven’t found anything particularly towny from him since

good catch
@rdr
do something
preferably not vote me, but who am I to judge?
I'll just probably write a fake plan claiming the entire thing was motivated by a scumread on you and post it at EoN3 if you do vote me.

I confess I am a bit lost in this game. I don't understand what you were tryng to achieve with all this "plans" and I feel I am just missing something.

I have a feeling deep in my bones that Damo is scum but I can't make a case on this. I also feel that either Bozo or Kak (or both) are fooling me.

I think Mimi is town and that Will is town. You are probably town too. All the others are on my could be scum list which is pretty bad at this point, we should at least have a solid town core at D3.