Mafia round 93: hot potato! (game thread)

[Kakarroto]

Sup I have a hot potato and I'm gonna do some shit with it

So tell me... who is feeling lucky?

if you chip it up and throw it to me, I'll catch that potato chip ... and EAT IT

[Kakarroto]

Expected hot potato deaths are as follows:-

D1 0%
N1 25%
D2 19%
N2 40%
D3 32%
N3 51%
D4 42%
N4 60%
D5 50%
N5 68%
D6 57%
N6 49%
D7 44%
N7 40%
D8 37%
N8 34%
D9 31%
N9 29%
D10 28%
N10 26%

Although I doubt the game will go beyond D7.

Damo's doing weird Math is usually a towny sign.

Buy I guess it makes some sense and I don't have the time to check it.

I do concur with the first statement.

However when damo does false math it's usually a mafia sign. And I'm not getting why the chance goes down so much on D2, even lower the origin percentage ... and he said himself he didn't put the saving potato into account ... I really do want to see the math behind it

then again bozo has the same 19% for D2? Bozo, damo, how does that work?

[Kakarroto]

What if we just all gave our potatoes to one person and then they'd be guaranteed to die the next day?

Why do you think this is a good idea and how do you know select the person fairly. Same question for the new guy who posted this exact same thing basically above your post.

I think once we get later into the game, like say Day 3, people will have a number of people they think are scum, and as Red said, mass potato throwing at one target is basically 2 votes a day.

but, as far as I understand it, the person that gets to be the target of the mass throw, is still able to throw the potatoes away, and even if one goes boom and we hit mafia, that person is able to throw all (non exploded) potatoes to someone else. And wouldn't that give mafia like a second nk?

I mean, that could go on for a bit, and if we get some mafia with that, great, but we should be aware that this accumulation could give mafia also a higher hit chance.

And if we are wrong a few times, that could go from town to town to town. We should be thoughtful who to target with stuff like that


hmm, there is a different benefit I just thought about, if everyone throws their potato on one person, and that person fans out the potatoes widely, so throws a single one only for a single target, that person can unpair with a whole lot of people. Then again, that's much more useful if mafia does that, and I don't see a way to guarantee mafia is doing such a thing. So maybe not a good idea.

But maybe I'm overlooking something and it's still overly beneficial doing it?

[Kakarroto]

It felt like you're actively avoiding making game progressing content.

Who are the 1-3 suspects and why is this your first comment about them?

Paste is coming in hot.

"Paste" ?

my guess is refering copy-paste from the shortcut Control+V (which is why I called that player 'Steuerung V' in the sign up, the word for the control key on the german keyboard)

[Kakarroto]

##VOTE Jamie

No true Irishman.

Oh look Ghug voting me D1 WHAT A SURPRISE

All caps. Checkmate.

nah, it's only the latter half of his post, so not all caps

It did get a good chuckle out of me, not gonna lie

[Kakarroto]

hmm ok here's where i'm at rn

dw/jamie feels t/t, maaaaybe s/s but unlikely. i doubt scum would be this aggressive with a town, and this sort of argument fits both of them in such a way i doubt it's otherwise ai. potentially it could be theater (unlikely imo), but i doubt they're on different teams

i think will is acting weird towards dw. #367 directed to bo is rather snarky, whereas #380 for example referencing his conversation w/ dw potentially is attempting to make it look like they're not at odds while still shading him in the conversation. obv this doesn't mean much but it's d1 so it's still enough for me to ##vote justaguynamedwill

bunny isn't a bad vote either imo but not really preferred. the rest of the people with votes i actively town read atm

I agree with your assessment of d&w/jamie, I don't think maf-dip would be that over the top here. He is leaning himself very out of the window, don't think that this is a maf-thing. I'm less sure about jamie, but he hasn't done anything which I saw as mafia-y. I mean we need to be careful not to put him into the town pile too early, jamie is great at blending in, but right now I don't hear any alarm bells, can easily see town-jamie here

I don't get the same reaction you get from will though. I mean, he nearly got me last game, and only because Dream was too towny and couldn't be mafia with Bunny I came to the correct conclusion. So maybe that's here too, but I don't see any real weirdness towards dip. And him being snarky isn't a maf-tell.

And I also think Bunny looks fine? Nothing too especially town leaning, but he is different from the last game, doesn't feel as buddy-ing, by far. And even when he likes to eat carrots, I think he's not a good target today.

[Kakarroto]

The trend toward only looking into and voting for high volume posters and ignoring lurkers even when half the roster is barely contributing if they are even meeting minimum requirements has me just about ready to townread everyone who is actually trying

yeh, I'm kinda guilty of that too. Hadn't fully recovered and was just mostly in bed yesterday when I came home, and in the morning my PC was down due to some uncalled update, so could only check in now, really.

So, anything you'd want to know?

[Kakarroto]

haven't you played with jamie before?

no i have not

i've interacted with him on the forums before and this fits well within his character

ok then here's background for you:
jamie is the most aggressive mafia player on the site (unless there's someone even more so in the forgotten days of yore).

oh oh, me too, tell me what I'm the most of[/] mafia player am! Goofy? Weird? Austrian? (ok the last one is probably a cop-out, so something else)

[Kakarroto]

The trend toward only looking into and voting for high volume posters and ignoring lurkers even when half the roster is barely contributing if they are even meeting minimum requirements has me just about ready to townread everyone who is actually trying

this is something that regularly happens
but do we wagon the player who lurked the entire day, then showed up to tie at eod?
no, we do not.
why?
I have no idea.
(referring to m1034 again)

Often times we gain a lot more immediately tangible information by forcing scum to either cleverly avoid or wagon someone without tons of connections on day 1 than we do by wagoning a high poster with lots of connections that don't make much sense in a vacuum, which is exactly what all the information we have on them lives in until later in the game. The challenge that comes with that is lining up a mafia lurker (or more than one) so they actually have to care. If we just line up town lurkers, the mafia lurkers, and anyone on the mafia team that cares to talk, don't really have to try that hard.

That's why I try to pressure lurkers, but usually it goes nowhere because the big posters all get sidetracked trying to find a reason to scumread one another.

I'd move my vote to any one of ND, Kaka, rdr, or Chaqa but I don't want your dumb wagon led by dumb people to be in the lead. I don't know the other lurkers and don't know if I will get a read on them whether they're here or not on day 1, but if there's a good reason to jump on them I'm happy to go that route too.

YES!!! Finally someone who gets it. Vote the lurkers!

Although I have to say, rd doesn't fully belong in that category, usually he makes up quantity with quality. Still, I would be happy if he posts more

[Kakarroto]

The trend toward only looking into and voting for high volume posters and ignoring lurkers even when half the roster is barely contributing if they are even meeting minimum requirements has me just about ready to townread everyone who is actually trying

Will is not going to like this.

I know, and it's beautiful

[Kakarroto]

I haven’t read anything else. Decided to check the bot for the typical “kill a lurker vote” and wasn’t shocked to see one on me.

I wonder when D1’s will be more interesting and not about lurker killing…

it will be when everyone is here to fully play the game, and stops lurking

[Kakarroto]

Why waste a D1 kill on a lurker over someone contributing to the game?

Idk, just wanted to get things moving. You’re here now so ##unvote

How does killing lurkers make things move?

the longer active people are around, the more content, the more information they create. Lurkers on the other hand generate far less.

Like, if an active person creates 50 per phase, a lurker creates 5 per phase (numbers purely for demonstative purposes). So, if we cull lurkers early, we might remove their 5 posts for the next 5 phases, which makes the game 25 posts poorer.

In the meantime, the active person creates 250 posts in the same game time. An overall benefit of 225 game posts.

And we didn't even need to use tariffs for that!

[Kakarroto]

Guys…can we not do the “vote red for scummy lurker” day 1 again?!?

He’s got like triple the posts he normally does.

He’s interacting a little and trying a little.

And we as a group kinda promised we’d reward that with letting him live till day 2 and try and see how to turn it around.

I agree. I wanna vote him too. But cmon. This is sooooo lazy, and we’re all gonna learn nothing.

So…##vote mimi.

I'm not aware that we, as a group made any such promises. I remember that one single person did that.

But yeah, I've noticed that he did post more, and more important, more game relevant stuff. I do not like that he blocks off any questions about his reads, this makes it too easy to hide behind that excuse as mafia. But I do concur that he does more than in the last game.

that said @Red Neurax since you don't seem willing sharing your thoughts about people at the current time, when do you plan to reveal such things?

Also, if you could get a potato of your choice, which one would it be, at the moment?

[Kakarroto]

##vote rdr

Huh?

I don't understand why D&W's reply, to BoSox, on the subject of his scumread of BunnyGo, is a reason to vote Rdr, who was not mentioned or involved.

Explain Bunny?

Apparently he thinks I am a potato chip.

I'm gonna take that potato chip ...

... and EAT IT!!!

tell me if I make that joke too often

it kinda feels like I might annoy someone with that already

[Kakarroto]

Guys…can we not do the “vote red for scummy lurker” day 1 again?!?

He’s got like triple the posts he normally does.

He’s interacting a little and trying a little.

And we as a group kinda promised we’d reward that with letting him live till day 2 and try and see how to turn it around.

I agree. I wanna vote him too. But cmon. This is sooooo lazy, and we’re all gonna learn nothing.

So…##vote mimi.

?

i'm not even voting red and you haven't otherwise mentioned me outside of sod

Also true. But I haven’t seen the Mimi from the last game here. And I think ghug may be right. I dunno. I’m flighty. Like a rabbit eating potatoes.

I just came to a sudden realization ... with your heritage, you might be a Wolpertinger ... have you recently checked your forehead of any antlers?

[Kakarroto]

Wait I forgot Kak was in this game

##VOTE KAK

Come out chip boy I aint remember anything u’ve said

but for the things I said you towned me earlier? Talk about brainrot of the tiktok generation

[Kakarroto]

yeah, took a bit to read all that I've missed. Brain still a bit mushy, but I guess that's the best state in to answer questions, so if you have any, shoot them at me.

from all I've seen, I don't like ND's vote there so ##vote ND

while I concur with the thought that Dream is a little less obvious town as last game, I don't see anything eyecatching that would point to mafia on Dream; there were some people that talked way much mech, curious that ND didn't go for them, instead for a new player that is now in the lead (if I'm not wrong?) of the wagons. That's also a very usual place where mafia likes to pile on

this brings me to bozo and damo, which I'm not sure how to read here. Damo has corrected his numbers, but only after bozo posted his, and we haven't seen either maths. In the end they both kinda agreed to the same numbers (I still want to know how they get to lower than 25% on D2) so either both are mafia or those numbers are solid? I think?

I haven't noticed any correlation between them (well except the numbers) so I guess they aren't paired?

[damo666]

Expected hot potato deaths are as follows:-

D1 0%
N1 25%
D2 19%
N2 40%
D3 32%
N3 51%
D4 42%
N4 60%
D5 50%
N5 68%
D6 57%
N6 49%
D7 44%
N7 40%
D8 37%
N8 34%
D9 31%
N9 29%
D10 28%
N10 26%

Although I doubt the game will go beyond D7.

Damo's doing weird Math is usually a towny sign.

Buy I guess it makes some sense and I don't have the time to check it.

I do concur with the first statement.

However when damo does false math it's usually a mafia sign. And I'm not getting why the chance goes down so much on D2, even lower the origin percentage ... and he said himself he didn't put the saving potato into account ... I really do want to see the math behind it

then again bozo has the same 19% for D2? Bozo, damo, how does that work?

N1 survival 75% D2 Explode 25% 0.75*0.25=0.1875

[miminena]

(I still want to know how they get to lower than 25% on D2)

potatoes can only activate at the beginning of the night, so only one can be activated during d2, but that potato still might explode during n1, so there's a chance it isn't in play, thus the percentage goes down

[Control V]

##vote DreamTrawler

I Don't think they believe their read on the game open. Don't see where it would come from at all. Very convienient to agree with joke reads instead of making your own tbh.

And I think Mimi should interact with my content since I oddly enough actually have content contrary to their implications.

Otherwise than that no more scumreads and Bo is likely spewed town.

Would like if people commented on my DreamTrawler read.

This one actually makes sense if you put it in a vacuum, but it’s still pretty bland. Where did Dream “agree with joke reads” and are you aware that this forum straight out of 2004 has a quote button?

Post #244

Suspicions: mimi-Bunny opening could be planned mafia stuff as damo and bo asserted. On the flip side they also both came in pointing fingers, so I could see one of them being mafia. I also think mimi-foodcoats could be a thing, same logic as mimi-Bunny with the early vote. Lastly I think it's suspicious that bozo is advocating for potato holders to reveal themselves but that could just be a difference of strategy.

And I very much agree with Dream seeming to be floating by per say.