Mafia round 93: hot potato! (game thread)

[DreamTrawler]

Stupid question - what are these the odds of exactly? Any given potato exploding or the chance of a potato exploding at all?

The total expected number of hot potato explosions per phase.

So just to be clear, this could better be expressed as:

On N1: You predict 0.25 explosions
On D2: You predict 0.188 explosions
On N2: You predict 0.391 explostions

... etc?

I think I get it. This is factoring in that the potatoes activate in a preset order determined by the GM. So on Night 1, with 1 active potato, there is a 25% chance of that potato exploding (as said in the rules). By night 2 with 2? 3? potatoes active, damo is saying that there is a 39.1% chance of at least one exploding. I'm guessing the reason the percentage goes down some nights is factoring in if the potato already exploded previously.

[Control V]

Dream Traveler feels a bit too restrained.

Bo Sox's #33 might be scummy as it feels very real but should be a continuation of a joke. Or might be nothing?

Bunny feels very towny but not technically 100% sure rn.

Restrained how? This is only my second game and I still haven’t really gotten up to scratch on what tells people have in the early game. I have 1-3 suspects but don’t feel strongly enough to vote yet.

It felt like you're actively avoiding making game progressing content.

Who are the 1-3 suspects and why is this your first comment about them?

[Control V]

Dream Traveler feels a bit too restrained.

Bo Sox's #33 might be scummy as it feels very real but should be a continuation of a joke. Or might be nothing?

Bunny feels very towny but not technically 100% sure rn.

Hi Control! Nice to meet you! If you want to pet my fur and feel how towny I am, buy me a drink…fingers look like carrots.


What’s your experience playing this game that gets you to make that your first post?

Mafiauniverse, Mafiascum, other places briefly if that is what you are asking.

[DreamTrawler]

Dream Traveler feels a bit too restrained.

Bo Sox's #33 might be scummy as it feels very real but should be a continuation of a joke. Or might be nothing?

Bunny feels very towny but not technically 100% sure rn.

Restrained how? This is only my second game and I still haven’t really gotten up to scratch on what tells people have in the early game. I have 1-3 suspects but don’t feel strongly enough to vote yet.

It felt like you're actively avoiding making game progressing content.

Who are the 1-3 suspects and why is this your first comment about them?

I guess discussing potato explosion statistics isn't game progressing content. That's fair, I suppose.

Suspicions: mimi-Bunny opening could be planned mafia stuff as damo and bo asserted. On the flip side they also both came in pointing fingers, so I could see one of them being mafia. I also think mimi-foodcoats could be a thing, same logic as mimi-Bunny with the early vote. Lastly I think it's suspicious that bozo is advocating for potato holders to reveal themselves but that could just be a difference of strategy.

Also, we've seen almost nothing from Chaqa, Will, worcej, ND, rdrivera, Red, and one or two others. There's probably some mafia in that list.

[Jamiet99uk]

Also, we've seen almost nothing from Chaqa, Will, worcej, ND, rdrivera, Red, and one or two others. There's probably some mafia in that list.

Would you classify Ghug as one of those "others"?

[Control V]

Restrained how? This is only my second game and I still haven’t really gotten up to scratch on what tells people have in the early game. I have 1-3 suspects but don’t feel strongly enough to vote yet.

It felt like you're actively avoiding making game progressing content.

Who are the 1-3 suspects and why is this your first comment about them?

I guess discussing potato explosion statistics isn't game progressing content. That's fair, I suppose.

Suspicions: mimi-Bunny opening could be planned mafia stuff as damo and bo asserted. On the flip side they also both came in pointing fingers, so I could see one of them being mafia. I also think mimi-foodcoats could be a thing, same logic as mimi-Bunny with the early vote. Lastly I think it's suspicious that bozo is advocating for potato holders to reveal themselves but that could just be a difference of strategy.

Also, we've seen almost nothing from Chaqa, Will, worcej, ND, rdrivera, Red, and one or two others. There's probably some mafia in that list.

How do you think the mimi-Bunny openings are planned per-say?

[Jamiet99uk]

Suspicions: mimi-Bunny opening could be planned mafia stuff as damo and bo asserted.

Was there a Night Zer0 Mafia chat?

I don't believe there was.

How would they plan interactions in advance?

[bozotheclown]

I only allowed for 5 potatoes not 7, whoops.

Revised numbers:

D1 0%
N1 25%
D2 19%
N2 40%
D3 32%
N3 51%
D4 42%
N4 60%
D5 50%
N5 68%
D6 82%
N6 93%
D7 78%
N7 68%
D8 61%
N8 55%
D9 50%
N9 46%
D10 43%
N10 40%

I think your numbers are still off, these percentages indicate an expected 10 explosions by N10.

I spotted my error.

Third time lucky.

These sum to 6.98 so I think they're probably correct.

D1 0.0%
N1 25.0%
D2 18.8%
N2 39.1%
D3 29.3%
N3 47.0%
D4 35.2%
N4 51.4%
D5 38.6%
N5 53.9%
D6 65.4%
N6 74.1%
D7 55.6%
N7 41.7%
D8 31.3%
N8 23.4%
D9 17.6%
N9 13.2%
D10 9.9%
N10 7.4%
D11 5.6%
N11 4.2%
D12 3.1%
N12 2.3%
D13 1.8%
N13 1.3%
D14 1.0%
N14 0.7%

These match my numbers until N5, then something is off. You have the D6 probability higher than N5, which can't be correct.

[miminena]

##unvote this is unproductive now

I will early gamesolve miminena-food-bunny-jamie
since mimi is bussing foodcoats and will move if that wagon picks up steam
##vote jamie
for
(a) having all starting words capitalized, which reads as scum trying to buddy everyone (don't ask)
(b) shitposting about 'robot detective' and counting potatoes
(c) complaining unnecessarily about ghug's vote
(d) typed 'dam0' which reads as a soft to damo of having 0 potatoes between scum players

this is wrong and also idr follow the logic behind me/food/bunny (like I could get any pairing from that but all three doesn't really makes sense to me) but from what i understand reading way into stuff d1 like this is generally dw's town meta so if not a towny post it's prob nai anyways

jamie is being rather brazen in his response and although i've never played with him before i'd assume that is town indicative if anything knowing him on other parts of the forums

bozo is starkly different from what i remember from 92 so i'm inclined towards them being town

damo is putting more focus on minute mech details than i'd reasonably expect scum to. on the other hand it is damo so idk

dt is posting very similar to last game so i'm inclined to lean him town but idt he even has a proper meta yet. generally towny though

everyone else is more or less null (which makes sense since high posters inherently look townier imo) and tbh since it's d1 i'm more worried abt finding town than finding scum

[bozotheclown]

To say it is to ruin it

Sorry, I don't see it.

What is your opinion on the SP holder revealing they had it during the phase after they pass it?

So let's game this out because you've only seen one piece and that worries me:

1) Bozo's plan lets us see whom can pass to whom. This publicly clears people IF:
a) They pass the SP to a scum
AND
b) the scum dies, which is harder when they have a SP

But also:

The SP location being known means the scum will never hit it with the NK

AND

The SP location and passing being done will encourage "info kills". And these also will encourage people to pass to scum reads to get self cleared...which is bad use of SP mech and only leaves us with the "scum can't pass to scum" mech.

So...overall, I don't think it's an obvious win, and I'm slightly surprised you do.

I considered the trade-off of not trying to use the SP to block a NK, but the way I was reading the description, I thought the SP was eliminated if it blocks a kill, so it seemed that trying to generate town clears would be a better use of the SP than trying to block one NK. I may have been wrong about the SP being a one use item, though. As for a mafia being less likely to get killed with the SP, that is just for one phase. With the SP being passed every phase, we could generate 8 pairs of T/T or S/T by D5, it seems to me that could be useful in trying to identify mafia.

[miminena]

To say it is to ruin it

Sorry, I don't see it.

What is your opinion on the SP holder revealing they had it during the phase after they pass it?

So let's game this out because you've only seen one piece and that worries me:

1) Bozo's plan lets us see whom can pass to whom. This publicly clears people IF:
a) They pass the SP to a scum
AND
b) the scum dies, which is harder when they have a SP

But also:

The SP location being known means the scum will never hit it with the NK

AND

The SP location and passing being done will encourage "info kills". And these also will encourage people to pass to scum reads to get self cleared...which is bad use of SP mech and only leaves us with the "scum can't pass to scum" mech.

So...overall, I don't think it's an obvious win, and I'm slightly surprised you do.

the location wouldn't be known in this scenario since the sp holder would only claim after having passed it on, right?

[bozotheclown]

So, I now agree with Bozo's figures.

I should read all of the thread before posting.

[DreamTrawler]

Suspicions: mimi-Bunny opening could be planned mafia stuff as damo and bo asserted.

Was there a Night Zer0 Mafia chat?

I don't believe there was.

How would they plan interactions in advance?

I guess planned is not what I meant, but just talking maf-maf to hide suspicion.

I guess people here call that a “bus”?

[DreamTrawler]

Also, we've seen almost nothing from Chaqa, Will, worcej, ND, rdrivera, Red, and one or two others. There's probably some mafia in that list.

Would you classify Ghug as one of those "others"?

Sure, I think all he’s said so far is that he also thinks we should mass potato someone.

[Jamiet99uk]

Suspicions: mimi-Bunny opening could be planned mafia stuff as damo and bo asserted.

Was there a Night Zer0 Mafia chat?

I don't believe there was.

How would they plan interactions in advance?

I guess planned is not what I meant, but just talking maf-maf to hide suspicion.

I guess people here call that a “bus”?

It can be. Real bussing is when you also vote for a team-mate (it is noted, Bunny did vote for Mimi).

[Jamiet99uk]

Also, we've seen almost nothing from Chaqa, Will, worcej, ND, rdrivera, Red, and one or two others. There's probably some mafia in that list.

Would you classify Ghug as one of those "others"?

Sure, I think all he’s said so far is that he also thinks we should mass potato someone.

Yes. I asked this question because Ghug has contributed less than ND.

[Jamiet99uk]

Would you classify Ghug as one of those "others"?

Sure, I think all he’s said so far is that he also thinks we should mass potato someone.

Yes. I asked this question because Ghug has contributed less than ND.

I am sure Ghug does not like it being pointed out that his contribution is inferior to that of ND, and I am confident that this will encourage him out of his ghuggle-hole. Unfortunately he will probably just increase his contribution by demanding that I am Daykilled for no particular reason, like he does most of the time on D1 because he is a dullard.

[foodcoats]

Do you object to keeping track of the exploding potatoes? Do you see a way that revealing that information helps the mafia?

I think that as long as people make their potato proclamations after they've passed them, it is town optimal (we don't want scum influencing people's potato maneuvers). But I'm pretty sure mass tater-toterring is the best play. That was my impression as soon as I read the setup. Any time there are a bunch of roles or items, it is ideal for town to lock in truths about those entities.

Do you agree this should be done with the special potatoes as well?

Actually, no. I was being a bit lazy and now that I’ve read properly… I think the special potatoes should not claim by default. I’m also rethinking the hot potatoes… was it answered what happens if the DK has a HP explode at EOD? Does the DK pass to the next highest voted player?

[DiplomacyandWarfare]

jamie's (alleged) reason for voting me:
"dip claimed to gamesolve and then scumread someone not on the list"
jamie's real reason for voting me:
"Oh My God U Suck"

[foodcoats]

I will early gamesolve miminena-food-bunny-jamie
since mimi is bussing foodcoats and will move if that wagon picks up steam
##vote jamie
for
(a) having all starting words capitalized, which reads as scum trying to buddy everyone (don't ask)
(b) shitposting about 'robot detective' and counting potatoes
(c) complaining unnecessarily about ghug's vote
(d) typed 'dam0' which reads as a soft to damo of having 0 potatoes between scum players

You are pairing Jamie and damo but they are not both in your gamesolve.

##VOTE DiplomacyandWarfare

(I might already be voting for you, I forget.)