Mafia round 93: hot potato! (game thread)

[Jamiet99uk]

Do you object to keeping track of the exploding potatoes? Do you see a way that revealing that information helps the mafia?

I think that as long as people make their potato proclamations after they've passed them, it is town optimal (we don't want scum influencing people's potato maneuvers). But I'm pretty sure mass tater-toterring is the best play. That was my impression as soon as I read the setup. Any time there are a bunch of roles or items, it is ideal for town to lock in truths about those entities.

what is mass-tater-toterring?

Sounds masstaterbatory to me

[BunnyGo]

Show your work

##vote bozo

I tried to do the same thing damo did, but my results were different. This is what I ended up with:

D1 0%
N1 25%
D2 19%
N2 39%
D3 29%
N3 47%
D4 35%
N4 51%
D5 39%
N5 54%
D6 40%
N6 55%
D7 41%
N7 56%
D8 42%
N8 32%
D9 24%
N9 18%
D10 13%
N10 10%

I wonder why we differ. Did you allow for chance of SP save. I didn't.

I only did first 4 phases myself and got something different from both of you...

[BunnyGo]

I will early gamesolve miminena-food-bunny-jamie
since mimi is bussing foodcoats and will move if that wagon picks up steam
##vote jamie
for
(a) having all starting words capitalized, which reads as scum trying to buddy everyone (don't ask)
(b) shitposting about 'robot detective' and counting potatoes
(c) complaining unnecessarily about ghug's vote
(d) typed 'dam0' which reads as a soft to damo of having 0 potatoes between scum players

holy ****

The tinfoil is strong with this one.

[Jamiet99uk]

I will early gamesolve miminena-food-bunny-jamie
since mimi is bussing foodcoats and will move if that wagon picks up steam
##vote jamie
for
(a) having all starting words capitalized, which reads as scum trying to buddy everyone (don't ask)
(b) shitposting about 'robot detective' and counting potatoes
(c) complaining unnecessarily about ghug's vote
(d) typed 'dam0' which reads as a soft to damo of having 0 potatoes between scum players

holy ****

The tinfoil is strong with this one.

Especially considering I openly said I had a hot potato and I was going to give it to you. So he thinks you're my scum-buddy and I'm lying to you, whilst also using coded messages to provide the opposite information to my scum-buddy Damo who was not actually listed in his "gamesolve" of four scum at the top of the same post!!!

[BunnyGo]

Oh wow, I found out.

This is peak Dan Quayle.

https://publicapologycentral.com/apologia-archive/political-2/dan-quayle-potato-incident/

Literally the only thing I remember of Quayle is how to spell potatoe

[Jamiet99uk]

@Diplomacy&Warfare:

Please explain how you asserted that I was scum with Bunny, Miminena, and Foodcoats, and yet, in the same post, you then went on to assert that I was sending coded signals to scum!damo, who was not listed in your alleged scumteam at the top of the post???

[Jamiet99uk]

@Diplomacy&Warfare:

Please explain how you asserted that I was scum with Bunny, Miminena, and Foodcoats, and yet, in the same post, you then went on to assert that I was sending coded signals to scum!damo, who was not listed in your alleged scumteam at the top of the post???

Like literally D&W's logic goes "Jamie is scum with Bunny, Miminena, and Foodcoats, and I can prove this because I caught him sending a coded message to his scumbuddy, Damo".

[Jamiet99uk]

##Vote Diplomacy+Warfare even harder

[Jamiet99uk]

Oh wow, I found out.

This is peak Dan Quayle.

https://publicapologycentral.com/apologia-archive/political-2/diplomacy-and-warfare-is-either-scum-or-a-fool/

Literally the only thing I remember of Quayle is how to spell potatoe

p.0.t.a.t.0.e

[BunnyGo]

l think Dam0 has somehow calculated on the basis of one(1) or more potatoes exploding more than 0nce.

giving all the potatos to one person is basically just 2 votes a day so thats why we should give them all to damo

Also false...but maybe the advocates will get there...

[BunnyGo]

@Diplomacy&Warfare:

Please explain how you asserted that I was scum with Bunny, Miminena, and Foodcoats, and yet, in the same post, you then went on to assert that I was sending coded signals to scum!damo, who was not listed in your alleged scumteam at the top of the post???

Do you really ascribe scum motivation to D&W's posts?

[damo666]

Fourth time lucky lol

I had pots 6&7 activate initially at D6 7 D7 instead of N6 & N7

D1 0.0%
N1 25.0%
D2 18.8%
N2 39.1%
D3 29.3%
N3 47.0%
D4 35.2%
N4 51.4%
D5 38.6%
N5 53.9%
D6 40.4%
N6 55.3%
D7 41.5%
N7 56.1%
D8 42.1%
N8 31.6%
D9 23.7%
N9 17.8%
D10 13.3%
N10 10.0%
D11 7.5%
N11 5.6%
D12 4.2%
N12 3.2%
D13 2.4%
N13 1.8%
D14 1.3%
N14 1.0%

[damo666]

So, I now agree with Bozo's figures.

[damo666]

@Diplomacy&Warfare:

Please explain how you asserted that I was scum with Bunny, Miminena, and Foodcoats, and yet, in the same post, you then went on to assert that I was sending coded signals to scum!damo, who was not listed in your alleged scumteam at the top of the post???

Like literally D&W's logic goes "Jamie is scum with Bunny, Miminena, and Foodcoats, and I can prove this because I caught him sending a coded message to his scumbuddy, Damo".

Isn't listing 5 scum a townslip?

[DreamTrawler]

Fourth time lucky lol

I had pots 6&7 activate initially at D6 7 D7 instead of N6 & N7

D1 0.0%
N1 25.0%
D2 18.8%
N2 39.1%
D3 29.3%
N3 47.0%
D4 35.2%
N4 51.4%
D5 38.6%
N5 53.9%
D6 40.4%
N6 55.3%
D7 41.5%
N7 56.1%
D8 42.1%
N8 31.6%
D9 23.7%
N9 17.8%
D10 13.3%
N10 10.0%
D11 7.5%
N11 5.6%
D12 4.2%
N12 3.2%
D13 2.4%
N13 1.8%
D14 1.3%
N14 1.0%

Stupid question - what are these the odds of exactly? Any given potato exploding or the chance of a potato exploding at all?

[Jamiet99uk]

@Diplomacy&Warfare:

Please explain how you asserted that I was scum with Bunny, Miminena, and Foodcoats, and yet, in the same post, you then went on to assert that I was sending coded signals to scum!damo, who was not listed in your alleged scumteam at the top of the post???

Like literally D&W's logic goes "Jamie is scum with Bunny, Miminena, and Foodcoats, and I can prove this because I caught him sending a coded message to his scumbuddy, Damo".

Isn't listing 5 scum a townslip?

He listed f0ur scum and then appeared to forget, while typing the post, that he had not listed you among them.

[DreamTrawler]

Is there any reason to keep the identity of the holders of regular potatoes hidden?

What if we just all gave our potatoes to one person and then they'd be guaranteed to die the next day?

Why do you think this is a good idea and how do you know select the person fairly. Same question for the new guy who posted this exact same thing basically above your post.

I think once we get later into the game, like say Day 3, people will have a number of people they think are scum, and as Red said, mass potato throwing at one target is basically 2 votes a day.

[damo666]

Fourth time lucky lol

I had pots 6&7 activate initially at D6 7 D7 instead of N6 & N7

D1 0.0%
N1 25.0%
D2 18.8%
N2 39.1%
D3 29.3%
N3 47.0%
D4 35.2%
N4 51.4%
D5 38.6%
N5 53.9%
D6 40.4%
N6 55.3%
D7 41.5%
N7 56.1%
D8 42.1%
N8 31.6%
D9 23.7%
N9 17.8%
D10 13.3%
N10 10.0%
D11 7.5%
N11 5.6%
D12 4.2%
N12 3.2%
D13 2.4%
N13 1.8%
D14 1.3%
N14 1.0%

Stupid question - what are these the odds of exactly? Any given potato exploding or the chance of a potato exploding at all?

The total expected number of hot potato explosions per phase.

[Jamiet99uk]

Fourth time lucky lol

I had pots 6&7 activate initially at D6 7 D7 instead of N6 & N7

D1 0.0%
N1 25.0%
D2 18.8%
N2 39.1%
D3 29.3%
N3 47.0%
D4 35.2%
N4 51.4%
D5 38.6%
N5 53.9%
D6 40.4%
N6 55.3%
D7 41.5%
N7 56.1%
D8 42.1%
N8 31.6%
D9 23.7%
N9 17.8%
D10 13.3%
N10 10.0%
D11 7.5%
N11 5.6%
D12 4.2%
N12 3.2%
D13 2.4%
N13 1.8%
D14 1.3%
N14 1.0%

Stupid question - what are these the odds of exactly? Any given potato exploding or the chance of a potato exploding at all?

The total expected number of hot potato explosions per phase.

So just to be clear, this could better be expressed as:

On N1: You predict 0.25 explosions
On D2: You predict 0.188 explosions
On N2: You predict 0.391 explostions

... etc?

[Jamiet99uk]

*explosions

(not "explostions" )