Mafia round 93: hot potato! (game thread)

[Jamiet99uk]

GM POST

Vote count 1.1

Jamiet99uk (2): ghug DiplomacyandWarfare
foodcoats (1): miminena
DiplomacyandWarfare (1): foodcoats
BunnyGo (1): bo_sox48
Vecna (1): brainbomb
bozotheclown (1): BunnyGo
ghug (1): Flavius_Aetius

Most players still need to vote.

rdrivera2005, Chaqa, Red Neurax, Control V, JustAGuyNamedWill, and worcej all need to meet posting requirements.

Currently Jamiet99uk is being wrapped in aluminium foil.

Why does the GM resemble Dan Quayle?

[Jamiet99uk]

Oh wow, I found out.

This is peak Dan Quayle.

https://publicapologycentral.com/apologia-archive/political-2/dan-quayle-potato-incident/

[Jamiet99uk]

Worcej is not here. I have reason to be suspicious about this.

[damo666]

GM POST

Vote count 1.1

Jamiet99uk (2): ghug DiplomacyandWarfare
foodcoats (1): miminena
DiplomacyandWarfare (1): foodcoats
BunnyGo (1): bo_sox48
Vecna (1): brainbomb
bozotheclown (1): BunnyGo
ghug (1): Flavius_Aetius

Most players still need to vote.

rdrivera2005, Chaqa, Red Neurax, Control V, JustAGuyNamedWill, and worcej all need to meet posting requirements.

Currently Jamiet99uk is being wrapped in aluminium foil.

Why does the GM resemble Dan Quayle?

Sparty is JDQ

[Jamiet99uk]

GM POST

Vote count 1.1

Jamiet99uk (2): ghug DiplomacyandWarfare
foodcoats (1): miminena
DiplomacyandWarfare (1): foodcoats
Moscowfleet (1): Xorxes
BunnyGo (1): bo_sox48
Vecna (1): brainbomb
bozotheclown (1): BunnyGo
ghug (1): Flavius_Aetius

Most players still need to vote.

rdrivera2005, Chaqa, Red Neurax, Control V, JustAGuyNamedWill, and worcej all need to meet posting requirements.

Currently Jamiet99uk is being wrapped in aluminium foil.

Why does the GM resemble Dan Quayle?

Sparty is JDQ

Those initials show up in ND's Pornhub search history too.

[Jamiet99uk]

Eww. Dan Quayle porn.

That's nasty.

[damo666]

Worcej is not here. I have reason to be suspicious about this.

Why? What?

[Jamiet99uk]

Worcej is not here. I have reason to be suspicious about this.

Why? What?

He has been online on WebDip in the past 24 hours and was also active in some Discord threads last night. I believe he knows the game has started.

[DreamTrawler]

idt they would be guaranteed to die, just guaranteed to have a 25% chance of dying

I think the explosion chance is calculated independently for each potato, so with enough potatoes it would be pretty likely that they die. I’m not amazing at math so please correct me if wrong- 75% chance of survival, so multiply .75 for each potato? So for example someone with 3 potatoes is .75 x .75 x .75 = .421875. Subtract that from 1 and someone with 3 potatoes at EoN has a 57.8125% chance of going boom.

I assumed it would be a d4 or something per activated potato but idk. Just double checked b/c I didn't see anything bout inv tato calculations.

This post is kinda stretching it imo

A d4 is the same thing as a 75% chance of survival. I was calculating the chance of at least one potato going off if someone is holding multiple.

[Jamiet99uk]

##Vote Diplomancy

[bozotheclown]

I wonder why we differ. Did you allow for chance of SP save. I didn't.

No, I did not account for the SP. I am not confident my numbers are correct, but I am fairly certain your numbers are off somewhere. First, they do not converge on 7 total explosions. Also, you don't show an increase in N6 and N7 when the last 2 potatoes would activate.

I only allowed for 5 potatoes not 7, whoops.

Revised numbers:

D1 0%
N1 25%
D2 19%
N2 40%
D3 32%
N3 51%
D4 42%
N4 60%
D5 50%
N5 68%
D6 82%
N6 93%
D7 78%
N7 68%
D8 61%
N8 55%
D9 50%
N9 46%
D10 43%
N10 40%

I think your numbers are still off, these percentages indicate an expected 10 explosions by N10.

[Jamiet99uk]

l think Dam0 has somehow calculated on the basis of one(1) or more potatoes exploding more than 0nce.

[Jamiet99uk]

01000100 01101001 01110000 01101100 01101111 01101101 01100001 01100011 01111001 00100000 01100001 01101110 01100100 00100000 01010111 01100001 01110010 01100110 01100001 01110010 01100101 00100000 01101001 01110011 00100000 01110000 01110010 01101111 01100010 01100001 01100010 01101100 01111001 00100000 01110011 01100011 01110101 01101101 00100000 01101100 01101111 01101111 01101011 01101001 01101110 01100111 00100000 01100110 01101111 01110010 00100000 01100001 01100010 01110011 01110101 01110010 01100100 00100000 01110010 01100101 01100001 01110011 01101111 01101110 01110011 00100000 01110100 01101111 00100000 01110011 01100011 01110101 01101101 01110010 01100101 01100001 01100100 00100000 01101101 01100101 00100000 01100010 01100101 01100011 01100001 01110101 01110011 01100101 00100000 01001001 00100000 01100001 01101101 00100000 01101100 01101111 01110111 00100000 01101000 01100001 01101110 01100111 01101001 01101110 01100111 00100000 01000100 00110001 00100000 01100110 01110010 01110101 01101001 01110100 00101110

[JustAGuyNamedWill]

Hello potato people! Taking very important tests today so will be offline for 4 or so hours

[Red Neurax]

l think Dam0 has somehow calculated on the basis of one(1) or more potatoes exploding more than 0nce.

giving all the potatos to one person is basically just 2 votes a day so thats why we should give them all to damo

[Jamiet99uk]

l think Dam0 has somehow calculated on the basis of one(1) or more potatoes exploding more than 0nce.

giving all the potatos to one person is basically just 2 votes a day so thats why we should give them all to damo

Uh

[Jamiet99uk]

...what?

[damo666]

No, I did not account for the SP. I am not confident my numbers are correct, but I am fairly certain your numbers are off somewhere. First, they do not converge on 7 total explosions. Also, you don't show an increase in N6 and N7 when the last 2 potatoes would activate.

I only allowed for 5 potatoes not 7, whoops.

Revised numbers:

D1 0%
N1 25%
D2 19%
N2 40%
D3 32%
N3 51%
D4 42%
N4 60%
D5 50%
N5 68%
D6 82%
N6 93%
D7 78%
N7 68%
D8 61%
N8 55%
D9 50%
N9 46%
D10 43%
N10 40%

I think your numbers are still off, these percentages indicate an expected 10 explosions by N10.

I spotted my error.

Third time lucky.

These sum to 6.98 so I think they're probably correct.

D1 0.0%
N1 25.0%
D2 18.8%
N2 39.1%
D3 29.3%
N3 47.0%
D4 35.2%
N4 51.4%
D5 38.6%
N5 53.9%
D6 65.4%
N6 74.1%
D7 55.6%
N7 41.7%
D8 31.3%
N8 23.4%
D9 17.6%
N9 13.2%
D10 9.9%
N10 7.4%
D11 5.6%
N11 4.2%
D12 3.1%
N12 2.3%
D13 1.8%
N13 1.3%
D14 1.0%
N14 0.7%

[BunnyGo]

Why?

To say it is to ruin it

Sorry, I don't see it.

What is your opinion on the SP holder revealing they had it during the phase after they pass it?

So let's game this out because you've only seen one piece and that worries me:

1) Bozo's plan lets us see whom can pass to whom. This publicly clears people IF:
a) They pass the SP to a scum
AND
b) the scum dies, which is harder when they have a SP

But also:

The SP location being known means the scum will never hit it with the NK

AND

The SP location and passing being done will encourage "info kills". And these also will encourage people to pass to scum reads to get self cleared...which is bad use of SP mech and only leaves us with the "scum can't pass to scum" mech.

So...overall, I don't think it's an obvious win, and I'm slightly surprised you do.

[BunnyGo]

I don't think we should be revealing information until we see reason to.

Do you object to keeping track of the exploding potatoes? Do you see a way that revealing that information helps the mafia?

I think that as long as people make their potato proclamations after they've passed them, it is town optimal (we don't want scum influencing people's potato maneuvers). But I'm pretty sure mass tater-toterring is the best play. That was my impression as soon as I read the setup. Any time there are a bunch of roles or items, it is ideal for town to lock in truths about those entities.

what is mass-tater-toterring?