Mafia round 93: hot potato! (game thread)

[Jamiet99uk]

Actually why the cap F and cap P and is there a mistake in your signature/byeline or whatever it's called?

I usually capitalise "Fellow Town" so I maintained my tradition.

There was a typo in my signature, well spotted, Dam0, how observant. I have corrected it now.

One potato, two potato, three potato, four....

Five potato, six potato, seven point two potatoes, nine.

[bozotheclown]

Show your work

##vote bozo

I tried to do the same thing damo did, but my results were different. This is what I ended up with:

D1 0%
N1 25%
D2 19%
N2 39%
D3 29%
N3 47%
D4 35%
N4 51%
D5 39%
N5 54%
D6 40%
N6 55%
D7 41%
N7 56%
D8 42%
N8 32%
D9 24%
N9 18%
D10 13%
N10 10%

I wonder why we differ. Did you allow for chance of SP save. I didn't.

No, I did not account for the SP. I am not confident my numbers are correct, but I am fairly certain your numbers are off somewhere. First, they do not converge on 7 total explosions. Also, you don't show an increase in N6 and N7 when the last 2 potatoes would activate.

[DiplomacyandWarfare]

I will early gamesolve miminena-food-bunny-jamie
since mimi is bussing foodcoats and will move if that wagon picks up steam
##vote jamie
for
(a) having all starting words capitalized, which reads as scum trying to buddy everyone (don't ask)
(b) shitposting about 'robot detective' and counting potatoes
(c) complaining unnecessarily about ghug's vote
(d) typed 'dam0' which reads as a soft to damo of having 0 potatoes between scum players

[ND]

What if we just all gave our potatoes to one person and then they'd be guaranteed to die the next day?

idt they would be guaranteed to die, just guaranteed to have a 25% chance of dying

I think the explosion chance is calculated independently for each potato, so with enough potatoes it would be pretty likely that they die. I’m not amazing at math so please correct me if wrong- 75% chance of survival, so multiply .75 for each potato? So for example someone with 3 potatoes is .75 x .75 x .75 = .421875. Subtract that from 1 and someone with 3 potatoes at EoN has a 57.8125% chance of going boom.

I assumed it would be a d4 or something per activated potato but idk. Just double checked b/c I didn't see anything bout inv tato calculations.

This post is kinda stretching it imo

[DiplomacyandWarfare]

I’m glad you don’t remember me well enough to know what that post means but you’re still able to scumread me, though. Solid stuff

...this looks a lot like scum flippantly posting about how nobody noticed a scumslip...

[DiplomacyandWarfare]

Isn’t each one predetermined to explode at a different phase?

I thought they were each predetermined to activate at a different phase, upon which they have a 25% chance of exploding at the end of day/night.

No they have a 25 percent chance of exploding in any given phase, which has been pre-rolled for each potato.

my assumption was that they will not explode until starting at night n, when potato n starts having a 25% chance to explode each phase
so n1 only one potato can explode
n2 up to 2 might if the first one didnt explode
etc

[DiplomacyandWarfare]

I believe this is what the youth refer to as sarcasm.

Oh! Irony! Nobody has used irony around here in 15 years and I was the last practitioner.

Just pretend the loss is a carrot, eat it, and move on.

...carrot? why not a potato, ghug?

[ND]

What if we just all gave our potatoes to one person and then they'd be guaranteed to die the next day?

pass it to damo

Solid opening.

Sadly I think Red is scum…

And I refuse to vote him today if he keeps this up.

Mmmkay

[DiplomacyandWarfare]

Town driving a potato onto a PR and forcing them out is a potential detriment.

because we have prs

Fake dumbslip

clearly, I am dumbslipping and not being sarcastic. Not bo_sox, who actually was talking about mech that doesn't exist. No, this is me faking that I didn't read the setup, which I definitely did not ask half a dozen questions about in the sign up thread.

[DiplomacyandWarfare]

pass it to damo

Solid opening.

Sadly I think Red is scum…

And I refuse to vote him today if he keeps this up.

Mmmkay

...
I think bunny is pairing with/buddying a town red here
so ironically I now also townread red

[damo666]

I tried to do the same thing damo did, but my results were different. This is what I ended up with:

D1 0%
N1 25%
D2 19%
N2 39%
D3 29%
N3 47%
D4 35%
N4 51%
D5 39%
N5 54%
D6 40%
N6 55%
D7 41%
N7 56%
D8 42%
N8 32%
D9 24%
N9 18%
D10 13%
N10 10%

I wonder why we differ. Did you allow for chance of SP save. I didn't.

No, I did not account for the SP. I am not confident my numbers are correct, but I am fairly certain your numbers are off somewhere. First, they do not converge on 7 total explosions. Also, you don't show an increase in N6 and N7 when the last 2 potatoes would activate.

I only allowed for 5 potatoes not 7, whoops.

Revised numbers:

D1 0%
N1 25%
D2 19%
N2 40%
D3 32%
N3 51%
D4 42%
N4 60%
D5 50%
N5 68%
D6 82%
N6 93%
D7 78%
N7 68%
D8 61%
N8 55%
D9 50%
N9 46%
D10 43%
N10 40%

[ND]

But no players are given special roles so that's not a thing, so fuck it who cares

I’m picturing bo making a post about PRs, then remembering to check the rules. Then posting this. I don’t remember him well enough to say what this indicates, but seems slightly scummy to me in a vacuum.

Yeah, you’re picturing me replying off the cuff to a post about something that could reveal PRs and then checking to see what the mechanics are around PRs only to recall that there are, in fact, no PRs because I replied off the cuff to a post about something that could reveal PRs and then checked to see what the mechanica are around PRs only to recall that there are, in fact, no PRs. Excellent work

I didn't think your post was sus, but dope clapback.

[damo666]

I will early gamesolve miminena-food-bunny-jamie
since mimi is bussing foodcoats and will move if that wagon picks up steam
##vote jamie
for
(a) having all starting words capitalized, which reads as scum trying to buddy everyone (don't ask)
(b) shitposting about 'robot detective' and counting potatoes
(c) complaining unnecessarily about ghug's vote
(d) typed 'dam0' which reads as a soft to damo of having 0 potatoes between scum players

I assume re (d) you're just being extremely silly.

[ND]

BBL ND is very busy today!!!!

[Jamiet99uk]

I will early gamesolve miminena-food-bunny-jamie
since mimi is bussing foodcoats and will move if that wagon picks up steam
##vote jamie
for
(a) having all starting words capitalized, which reads as scum trying to buddy everyone (don't ask)
(b) shitposting about 'robot detective' and counting potatoes
(c) complaining unnecessarily about ghug's vote
(d) typed 'dam0' which reads as a soft to damo of having 0 potatoes between scum players

The level 0f tinfoil hat c0nspiracy theor1sing bat-shittery in this reasoning is very, very high.

Why is it "unnecessary" for me to react to Ghug voting me for no reason?

Why is me calling Bozo "Robot Detective" scum-indicative?

What the fuck.

[Jamiet99uk]

I’m glad you don’t remember me well enough to know what that post means but you’re still able to scumread me, though. Solid stuff

...this looks a lot like scum flippantly posting about how nobody noticed a scumslip...

60 seconds earlier you were sure it was "miminena-food-bunny-jamie".

[Jamiet99uk]

Solid opening.

Sadly I think Red is scum…

And I refuse to vote him today if he keeps this up.

Mmmkay

...
I think bunny is pairing with/buddying a town red here
so ironically I now also townread red

Six scum and counting...

[Jamiet99uk]

I will early gamesolve miminena-food-bunny-jamie
since mimi is bussing foodcoats and will move if that wagon picks up steam
##vote jamie
for
(a) having all starting words capitalized, which reads as scum trying to buddy everyone (don't ask)
(b) shitposting about 'robot detective' and counting potatoes
(c) complaining unnecessarily about ghug's vote
(d) typed 'dam0' which reads as a soft to damo of having 0 potatoes between scum players

I assume re(d) you're just being extremely silly.

Look, Dip&War! Damo is clearly attempting to signal to Red Neurax!

[Spartaculous]

GM POST

Vote count 1.1

Jamiet99uk (2): ghug DiplomacyandWarfare
foodcoats (1): miminena
DiplomacyandWarfare (1): foodcoats
BunnyGo (1): bo_sox48
bozotheclown (1): BunnyGo

Most players still need to vote.

rdrivera2005, Chaqa, Red Neurax, Control V, JustAGuyNamedWill, and worcej all need to meet posting requirements.

Currently Jamiet99uk is being wrapped in aluminium foil.

[Jamiet99uk]

Mmmkay

...
I think bunny is pairing with/buddying a town red here
so ironically I now also townread red

Six scum and counting...

Ah no sorry you had BunnyGo already.

But, how did you look at this, say to yourself "this is either pairing or buddying", and immediately decide it was the latter, not the former?