The German Federal Election -- a first overview

[Octavious]

80% of Germans voted for parties that made it clear they wouldn't work with the AfD.

Yes, because the one major issue on the mind of every voter was whether or not the AfD would be considered for coalition.

But yes, I grant you that after pledging that a coalition with AfD wasn't on the table the CDU had to honour that. My gripe is that they made such a commitment in the first place. They should have kept it open. Sure, say that they are very much inclined not to if that is their wish, but to rule it out completely is taking the votes of the German people for granted. They assumed that they would win and be able to form a stable coalition with one or two other parties. That was never a guarantee.

[Octavious]

If you, octavious, thinks that only winners should form the government, and you do think that the CDU should keep their options open, why not try CDU-Grüne-Linke? The CDU has stated that it will not work with the Linke, but if you are willing to break promises just like that, why not in favour of the Linke? Die Grüne has not suffered major losses, and die Linke has almost doubled, so this can also be considered a "coalition of the winners". Would you be happy with that?

Of course. The people dictate what is possible, and the parties should work with that. If a workable agreement can be made with die Linke (I suspect not, but you never know) then why not? My gripe is not with them sticking to their promises, but with them making such ridiculous promises in the first place

[Esquire Bertissimmo]

80% of Germans voted for parties that made it clear they wouldn't work with the AfD.

Yes, because the one major issue on the mind of every voter was whether or not the AfD would be considered for coalition.

But yes, I grant you that after pledging that a coalition with AfD wasn't on the table the CDU had to honour that. My gripe is that they made such a commitment in the first place. They should have kept it open. Sure, say that they are very much inclined not to if that is their wish, but to rule it out completely is taking the votes of the German people for granted. They assumed that they would win and be able to form a stable coalition with one or two other parties. That was never a guarantee.

This "ridiculous" promise was demanded by CDU voters and reflects a strategic decision by the party intended to maximize its own electoral results.

[Octavious]

Indeed, and they are now paying for that choice by having a far weaker negotiation position than their vote share should have given them, and Germany will pay for the decision by the AfD continuing to be a party untarnished by having to make difficult decisions

[Klaus klauts]

They indeed have sacrificed a huge part of their negotiating power, but have saved their own existence. I do not think that this is a bad deal.

[Octavious]

Time will tell. At least there has been a small break with the recent run of CDU SPD grand coalitions. If we'd been looking at the 4th in a row the patience of the people would have been sorely tested

[Klaus klauts]

Now that I think about it, maybe that was the reason why the CDU created a scandal when they put a law to the vote, which could only be passed with the help of the AFD, which eroded a tabu. Maybe this was a step to, on the one side enlarge the pressure on the SPD to coalesce, and weakening the position of the SPD, because now a CDU-AFD coalition is less unthinkable than before, and on the other side, the SPD gain apologies why they had to coalesce with the CDU while not getting much of their own policies through, when their traditional cave in occurs.

(The polls roughly predicted the outcome of the election quite precisely, so one could already see that a CDU-SPD coalition is quite likely, and even if not, that every (realistically possible) government must contain the CDU)

[Klaus klauts]

lol the polls predicted the outcome roughly quite precisely : )
What a nonsensical sentence, but the meaning should still come through.

[Esquire Bertissimmo]

One untested assumption here is that the vote shares are the same whether or not CDU committed to shutting out AfD.

I suspect that, had they taken Oct's bargain, the CDU would have lost votes to other parties willing to lock out the AfD. That could have resulted in either a CDU-AFD coalition in which the CDU was the weaker party, or an even broader and less focused coalition excluding both the CDU and AfD. Maybe it would have moved some AfD voters over to the CDU, but then that changes the character of the party. I can see why they did what they did strategically.

[Octavious]

I can see why they did what they did. To me it still feels like a fundamental error.

Still, we have reached the point where we're limited to wild speculation about might have beens in alternate time lines which, whilst fun to a certain degree, won't get us any further forward.

Cheers, all, for an interesting discussion

[Esquire Bertissimmo]

On a seperate note, Klaus I imagine you're a German?

If so I'd be very curious to hear what you think is driving support for the AfD? Is it just a protest vote against ineffective coalitions? A backlash against immigration? Some genuine increase in white nationalism and russophilia?

From an outsiders perspective it's rather shocking. There's been a rise in the popularity of the Conservative party in Canada post-pandemic, and that includes a shift in public opinion against mass immigration, but it seems nothing like what's going on in Germany.

[Jamiet99uk]

Look at Octavious saying he's a centrist yet devoting his energy towards defending the extreme right, as has become his position.

Trump is a genius.
Elon Musk isn't a Nazi.
The AfD are not fascist holocaust deniers.

Yawn. Who is paying you, Octavious?

[Jamiet99uk]

(If nobody is paying you, you are either seriously deluded about what is happening in the world, or a genuinely quite nasty person).

[Jamiet99uk]

"I personally think that Mr. Hitler is a little over the top, and I don't support some of his more extreme notions, but clearly the best thing would be to let him be Fuhrer for a few years, so that people will be able to see his limitations.

"What's that? A few thousand Jews and Poles died? Oh dear, but still, it could have been worse. The socialists might have got in!"

[Klaus klauts]

Yes Bert, I am indeed German.

It is hard to tell why exactly people are voting this, but here are a few guesses:
-- Most people voting AFD are economically in bad positions, and they see that over the years the social aspect of the state has been eroding for years under the previous government. Even the "socialist" SPD has pushed through rather neoliberalism reforms, so one can understand this, or at least could, if the AFD would not be the most neoliberalistic of the lot. But the previous governments were just shitty, people want something new, and i kind of understand that.

-- On the same note, right wing media told the public about criminal refugees that attack people with knives every day, and steel from the social institutions. This is painted in such a way, that the situation of the eroding social state is to be blamed on them. And like every good lie, there is some truth here: There are certain parts of Germany where mafia and similar things thrive, and these are indeed primarily operated by (former) foreigners, and if refugees come, they of course also get resources from the state, since they are not allowed to work, sometimes for years, until they finally get an approval. In response to that, all the non-AFD parties have tried to paint the picture that there are no problems at all, denying that there even is the possibility a criminal refugee, or some mafiaesque organization could even exist -- an obvious lie, that eroded trust in them even further.

-- There are loads of corruption in Germany hiding in plain sight. I just have to think about my hometown, and I know one case for a fact, and many cases where many "very sus things happened". If you do not believe that, just have a look at Olaf Scholz, a politician, who had "interesting conversation with bankers about a tax evasion scheme" and now "can not remember". Maybe he is indeed not guilty, but "in dubio pro reo" does not hold for a politician of this rank, he has to be trusted, and he is certainly not.

-- There are loads of Russian espionage and influence. Russia uses this immense influence to push the AFD -- with success. I cannot find the source at the moment, but once Russian documents were leaked (and ignored by the german public) where it is described how they want to push the AFD to 20% and the BSW and how they want to make die Grüne unpopular.
(This source supports most of my claims however, but i could not find the original leaked Russian material: https://vsquare.org/leaked-files-putin-troll-factory-russia-european-elections-factory-of-fakes/)

-- The AFD weaponizes major flaws in the "Erinnerungskultur". With "Erinnerungskultur" one means that we always remember the crimes of our forefathers during WWII, but also before that. For example: Every year in my hometown there's is a ceremony to remember the burning down of the local synagogue (there has not been one since), and I attended when I was a young teenager. Now at this point, I already knew most of the things one can know about WWII, nonetheless the ceremony felled quite shallow -- like a little "high culture" show one likes to play to reassure ourselves that everything is alright. To be fair: it is entirely possible that this was my very personal problem, but I do not think so.
The other flaw is the kind of remembering: Many people "have learned" out of history (and here it becomes obvious that history is a bad teacher) that Germans are naturally fascists, that, once their military has enough strength, have the "natural urge" to conquer all of Europe. They do not understand that this is not a specific German trait, but that this is a human one -- that (almost) every human can be persuaded to be a fascist or to conquer Europe under the "right" circumstances. This is part of the reason why Germans are easily convincible that having a functioning military is bad, and why they so willingly gave control to the US. You have to remember, that the US and especially Europe as a whole also played mayor parts: The only NATO-country pro unification was the US. The italian foreign minister said "I like Germany so much, I rather have two of them", GB also tried to intervene, and France could only be convinced by promising the introduction of the Euro. They were all very scared of Germany, and probably also spend resources to reinforce this fear of the Germans about themselves.

This is also part of the reason why so many people are pro-Russian: "The Russians can not be invading Ukraine, only Nazis invade other countries, and Nazis are German nor Russian. Thus, you are lying Q.E.D."
Thus the AFD can now claim that "Erinnerungskultur" is bullshit in general, and at the same time weaponize it to paint a Russian-friendly picture.

This is also a mayor part of the reason why pro-Palestine protests are suppressed with this unusual amount of pressure -- much more pressure than to prevent neo-Nazi demos. While we are reassuring ourselves that by always attending shallow ceremonies and listening to pseudo-intellectual content we are reassured that we will never be nazis again, part of the "Erinnerungskultur" is to see the Jews as the all-time victims. This is not completely wrong, as Jews were indeed suppressed in huge parts of German (but to be fair: European) history, but people do not understand that victims can become criminal (I do not want to take a side in this, but it is concerning that the very possibility is ruled out without ever looking at the facts). The irony is, that this is kind of the story of Germans themselves: First victims (No, I do not mean WWI), then criminals. But that is another story.

[Klaus klauts]

One additional piece of information:

Russian influence over Germany is a mayor point in Putins plan. There is a book popular in the Kreml (I have sadly forgotten title and author) that talks about how Russia can be "rebuild": By giving some minor territory to Germany, maybe Königsberg, and Russia sacking the rest. You also have to keep in mind, that Putin was stationed in East-Germany when the Soviet Union fell, speaks German, and build an espionage ring in the time between the fall of the wall and him being president. That means: influencing Germans is his core talent, not just a side show.

[Klaus klauts]

I have to add even more:

Most Germans see Germany as irrelevant in the world, inferior to
-- USA, China, Russia, France, GB, India, Australia, NZ, Canada, South Korea, South Africa, Brazil and probably even more.
I do not want to offend people from these countries, but if you look at the economics, Germany has the third-largest economy, making it a lucrative target, and potentially stronger than all of them but the USA and China.

Since people think that Germany is irrelevant, they are fine with defending like an "irrelevant country". This is highly dangerous, because now you can attack Germany cheaply and have immense gain. Thus, an invasion of Germany could now make economic sense. This is also part of the reason why Germany are so willingly bending to Russia's will: They still see Russia as the almighty Soviet Union, while they see Germany as this small, irrelevant country that can be invaded by Russia at will.

One side effect of the "Erinnerungskultur" is, that there are no "patriots". This does not sound bad at first, but that means, that if Russia invades, nobody is willing to defend. They all say: "What do I care about it" They think that they can flee abroad, like so many fled to Germany, and fail to notice that most countries do not want any refugees. Those who do not plan to flee think along this line: "Wars are only in the interest of rich people. We normal people have nothing to loose or fear". They fail to notice, that Russia even today commits mass murders, mass rapings, mass deportations of children and other heinous crimes. Thanks to the "Erinnerungskultur" many find reasons to see Russia as a friend: "If Russia is a dictatorship, where are the concentration camps", "If Russia is a dictatorship, why is there no WWIII?", "If Russia is a dictatorship, why has Russia still so many friends?". And whenever one points out the answers, they are dismissed, because you have been "brainwashed by western media". Es ist zum heulen.

[Jamiet99uk]

To clarify my previous comments, I don't fundamentally think Octavious is an evil person.

I think he is very misguided about how to deal with fascists.

I believe his viewpoint comes from the same place as people saying that fascists should have the right to speak in public, that only by hearing their views will we conclude that they are unpleasant, and we will reject them.

I do not agree with this view.

Fascists stand for the destruction of all democratic rights. They want to end the right to vote and set up a one party Nazi dictatorship. They want to smash trade unions, end the right to strike, and remove other hard-won democratic freedoms. One of fascism’s most famous quotes is Mussolini’s ‘Uno Duce, Uno Voce’ – ‘One master, one Voice’. This is what would happen to free speech in a fascist society.

The AfD's membership includes actual Neo-Nazis and ethno-fascists. This has been demonstrated. Some of them are members of parliament. Any reasonable political party would expel these members and refuse to associate with them. That the AfD happily tolerates Nazis amongst its ranks reveals its true colours. It is a fascist party.

Free speech for fascists helps them organise. A majority of reasonable people will vote against fascism, but the fascists will target the small minority and move in to recruit. The AfD is a clear and present danger and Octavious's proposal of "let them take part in government and then the people will kick them out" is fundamentally mistaken.

[Octavious]

Now that is interesting. It had never occurred to me that Germany would view itself as irrelevant. In the UK Germany is considered to be the political and economic leader of Europe (with France a close and somewhat less reliable 2nd place in all matters other than military). One of the drivers of Brexit was the perception that Britain was essentially powerless in a German or Franco-German club. You'd propose something we didn't like, the other EU nations would fall in line, and we'd say no and get grumbled at by everyone. Even the ones who also didn't want it but we're happy to say yes safe in the knowledge that Britain would say no on their behalf and play the bad guy.

As much as the British people love to tease the Germans with regard to WWII, we've not seen you as a threat for decades. It was one of the most mysterious arguments Europeans would use against Brexit. The EU, they would say, has ensured peace between EU nations... The idea of a European war had become so alien to the British that the EU preventing it seemed an utterly ludicrous concept.

A lot of us have a great deal of sympathy for the national guilt that seems to exist in Germany. The Nazis are nearly all dead. Those born generations after should have no guilt about it, should feel no great shame. All nations have done bad things over the years, and whilst Germany's crimes are a little more recent that shouldn't make any difference. Germany has a lot of history it can be proud of, and shouldn't fear a bit of national pride.

The views on Russia are curious. I don't think many in Britain think that Russia didn’t invade, or that Russia hasn't committed crimes. Some believe that Russia had a degree of justification in their actions, and some believe that Ukraine aren't much better, but the predominant anti-war sentiment is that it's a tiff between to corrupt far away ex-Soviet states that has nothing to do with us, much like recent major conflict in Africa.

[Octavious]

I don't fundamentally think Octavious is an evil person

Not fundamentally evil?

Jamie, I do believe that may be the nicest thing you've ever said to me. I love you too