The German Federal Election -- a first overview

[Klaus klauts]

As most of you probably have not known, today the German people have elected a new parliament. The official result is not in, but one can already see where things are going:

When I am writing this, these are the results:
SPD: 16,4% (Was in last government, weakly pro Russian, center)
CDU: 28,5% (Not in last government, claims to be anti Russian, center-right)
Grüne: 12,0% (Was in last government, Strongly anti Russian, slightly left)
FDP: 4,6% (Was in last government, anti-Russian, neoliberal)
Will not be in parliament because of 5%-barrier
AFD: 20,5% (Was not in last government, Strongly pro-Russian,
extremely-right, is watched by intelligence agencies for
being extremely right, has members that, according to
Cord ruling, can legally be called fascists)
Has doubled in popularity
Linke: 8,6% (Was not in last government, pro-Russian,
left (the name means literally "the left"))
BSW: 4,9% (New party that former "Linke" members formed, Strongly
pro-Russian, thinks that Soviet Russia was a paradise)
Will not be in parliament because of the 5%-barrier
Other partys: 4,5%

Thus, this is the seat-distribution: (total=630)
SPD: 120
CDU: 208
Grüne: 88
AFD: 150
Linke: 63
SSW: 1

(The 5% barrier does not apply to SSW, because it is the party that represent the Danish minority)

As you can see, every coalition that want to have a majority has to contain either CDU or AFD. Every party has explicitly stated, that it will under no circumstance work with the AFD. Sadly, the CDU has broken this long-standing promise a month ago, so while I think that a CDU-AFD coalition is still quite unlikely, it is entirely possible. This would be very terrible, since the AFD is very pro Russian and in large parts fascists, and a CDU willing to work with that would probably do whatever the AFD likes.
Since the CDU does also not want to work with "die Linke", the only solution to this problem is a CDU-SPD coalition. While this would not be too terrible in better times, this would be very unsettling news in these shitty times (thank you America /s) since this coalition (it already occurred a few times) is known for doing nothing. In a time when brave action needs to be taken, this is very bad news indeed.

(un)Fun fact: The politician most Germans wanted, Boris Pistorius (SPD), had an approval rating of 47%, much more than Friederich Merz (CDU) with 34% who will probably be next chancellor. The chancellor candidate for the SPD is the current office-holder Olaf Scholz (SPD), who has an approval rating of 26%. Meaning that the politician with the highest approval of being chancellor, was not even a choice to begin with.

But there is also hope: I have written, that the SPD is "weakly pro Russian". That is, because at least to me, it seems like the SPD is splitted into a weak majority of "pro Russian" and a strong minority of "Anti Russian" politicians. And the SPD-politicians currently in power are mostly "pro-Russian", so that this bad election result is ultimately a punishment to this pro-Russian circle. The already mentioned Boris Pistorius has already announced that he would be willing to collide with the CDU, while Scholz has already announced that he will not be part of a government that contains the CDU.

This gives hope, because Boris Pistorius is currently the German defence minister, and he is the first one since literary DECADES that actually is interested in having a working military, while all the shitheads before him just took the cash and did not care in the slightest about the ability of Germany to defend itself. He is probably not perfect, but the best we have, and any substitute would probably be worse. This also gives hope, that, since the pro-Russian Scholz does not want to be part of this government, other pro-Russian SPD-politicians will also be kicked out of their office, so that we will get a government that actually cares about defending itself.

But -- this is only the talk of someone who wants this to happen, it could very possibly go wrong, and Russia will try everything it can to prevent this. This might sound strange to you, but there are many cases of Russian sabotage in Germany -- but they are just ignored by the government. The pro-Russian-faction is still very strong. Here are some of the most notable examples:

-- Sabotage on a German warship: https://www.tagesschau.de/investigativ/marine-kriegsschiff-sabotageverdacht-100.html
-- Sabotage on another German warship: https://www.tagesschau.de/investigativ/ndr-wdr/sabotage-marine-ostsee-102.html
-- Sabotage at a Luftwaffe-base: https://www.aero.de/news-48063/Moegliche-Sabotage-gegen-Fliegerhorst-Koeln-Wahn.html
-- Sabotage to make "die Grüne" a strongly-anti-Russia party more unpopular: https://www.tagesschau.de/inland/bundestagswahl/sabotageserie-autos-russland-100.html
-- Jan Marsalek, once a wirecard manager (a once very powerfull company that went under) was also a Russian spy: https://www.zdf.de/nachrichten/politik/deutschland/marsalek-wirecard-russland-spion-priester-pass-100.html
-- Russian surveillance drones flying over important and millitary infrastructure: https://www.tagesschau.de/investigativ/ndr-wdr/drohnen-spionage-sabotage-100.html
-- Again Russian drones over important infrastructure and the Us-Rammstein base: https://www.tagesschau.de/investigativ/ndr-wdr/drohnen-ueberfluege-100.html
-- How Russian millitary intelligence discredited Ukraine and convinced Germany to build Nord Stream: https://www.welt.de/politik/ausland/plus238863433/Krieg-in-der-Ukraine-Bei-Gazprom-sprachen-wir-gern-von-der-Schroederisierung-Europas.html
-- How Olaf Scholz (current chancellor) was already when he was young in great contact to the Kreml and the GDR: https://hubertus-knabe.de/die-akte-scholz/

And many more, but, you'll get the point.

One addition: Trump likes this election result. Make of that what you want.

[Klaus klauts]

I forgot:
The voter turnout was 83,1%. The wins and losses are:
SPD: -9,3 %
CDU: +4,3%
Grüne: -2,8%
FDP: -6,9%
AFD: +10,2%
Linke: +3,7%
BSW: +4,9%
Other Parties: -4,1%

[CaptainFritz28]

83%? That's a pretty good turnout.

[Klaus klauts]

The voter turnout is higher than in the elections before, but historically the voter turnout in German election was always very high:

https://bundeswahlleiterin.de/dam/jcr/8dbb2264-1f08-405d-97fd-56868c8eaad8/BTW_Wahlbeteiligung.pdf

[Octavious]

It's always interesting, when seeing how democracy is conducted in other countries, to see that there are significant flaws in all systems. Here we have the ludicrous situation where the formation of the next German government is massively influenced by a few thousand far left BSW voters. The crazy situation for the Green Party being that they would have been far more influential if a chunk of their voters had voted for BSW instead. No system is perfect.

What Germany will now do, of course, because Germany is politically stupid in certain important respects, is form a grand coalition of centre right and left. Same shit, different figurehead. The right wing government the people have voted for won't because everyone is still scared of the shadow of the NAZIS. The sense that voting doesn't matter will grow, and the AFD will be protected from having to actually make any difficult decisions and continue to grow in popularity

[Octavious]

The Russians have been conducting low level sabotage pretty much everywhere. Nothing too lethal to avoid provoking a response, but lots of IT stuff on key infrastructure and some physical stuff on rail networks.

The general feel is that if things ever got serious the Russians have a lot more nasty tricks hidden away. Blowing up dams, poison in the reservoirs, caltrops scattered off motorway bridges, that sort of thing. Russian restraint has been one of the most surprising things about this conflict

[Octavious]

The other notable thing about this election is that it makes it look like the DDR and West Germany are alive and well as very different places

[Esquire Bertissimmo]

What Germany will now do, of course, because Germany is politically stupid in certain important respects, is form a grand coalition of centre right and left. Same shit, different figurehead. The right wing government the people have voted for won't because everyone is still scared of the shadow of the NAZIS. The sense that voting doesn't matter will grow, and the AFD will be protected from having to actually make any difficult decisions and continue to grow in popularity

The key assumptions here are that gridlock and compromise are always worse than decisive government action, and that the AfD present no risk whatsoever to German politics.

Divided politics, even when they result in gridlock, are not always a bad outcome in a democracy. Sometimes doing nothing is better than pressing forward without a sufficient plurality of support.

I could fill the thread with links to AfD wrongdoing but the core point is their senior ranks include white nationalists and WW2 revisionists. That's a shadow worth being disgusted by even if you don't think it should be fear-inducing.

The AfD may be able to get ahead by criticizing yet another big, ineffective coalition. But if that coalition actually does even half of what Germans want on key issues like immigration then the AfD may find its relative appeal diminished. A reluctant coalition government will be eager to sap AfD support even if it means sacrificing some sacred cows.

[Klaus klauts]

You all theorize, that a coalition containing the AFD will take away their appeal, but there is one simple reason why everyone is "too scared to try it": It was already tried (by von Papen) with the NSDAP, and we all know how this one played out.

[Octavious]

You all theorize, that a coalition containing the AFD will take away their appeal, but there is one simple reason why everyone is "too scared to try it": It was already tried (by von Papen) with the NSDAP, and we all know how this one played out.

If there's one thing history can teach us is that history is an awful teacher.

I think you are learning the wrong lesson from the early 20th century. Take the first world war. The European nations firmly believed that a credible deterrent backed up by early and decisive action was the key to peace, and this governed their actions. Russia took early and what they hoped would be decisive action when Austro-Hungary moved against Serbia. Germany Responds to Russian mobilisation with early and decisive action. Britain and France move against Germany with early and decisive action. All major players thinking it'll all be over by Christmas if they just act firmly enough.

It failed.

Millions died.

And so, when the threat of Hitler appeared, a more sober Europe had learnt the lessons of history. Not again would they rashly march early to war. There will be no grand threats and reckless sabre rattling. No, this time they would avoid the mistakes of the past and do everything they could to preserve the peace by negotiation and diplomacy, give and take.

It failed.

Millions died.

History is an awful teacher, and the lessons of history betrayed her students.

So here we are with you, and I dare say many of the German political classes, looking back to von Papen to learn the lessons of history. And my simple message is to beware. Do not trust history. Her knife is the sharpest of anyone's.

[Esquire Bertissimmo]

It's easy enough to find times where history is not a great predictor.

But I wonder, Oct, if you have arguments in favour of your position, which seems to be (i) the AfD isn't that bad and (ii) even if they are bad, their badness would be moderated by being made a part of the governing coalition.

It seems to me it could go either way. The realities of governing, and having to own the consequences of their policies, could weaken or moderate the AfD. But empowering those on the political extremes can often just make them more extreme. And if the AfD has deeply illiberal instincts they can do lots of damage by being allowed into the tent.

It's also not obvious to me that, just because two right-leaning parties did well they ought to form a coalition with one another. Many voters supporting the centre right in Germany presumably share my disgust with the AfD and would rather have an ineffective coalition than a profoundly morally compromised one - my guess is the centre right is keeping the AfD out not just because of some strongly felt moral duty, but because their voters also aren't eager to empower the AfD.

[Klaus klauts]

You are indeed right, in that history is an awful teacher.

But on the one side my statement explains the behaviour of German politicians, on the other side I actually think that letting the AFD into government, at least at this very critical time, would be a grace mistake.

If the AFD were "just" far-right extremist people, one could think about this option, but sadly they are even worse than that: They are essentially Russian trolls, financed and supported by Russia, ready to sell the German people to the Russian for some roubles. "Normal" far-right extremist people would traditionally stand for more independence, strong military etc. which would actually not be so bad at this moment, but they stand for capitulation and servitude for Russia: They would blockade any advancement in defensive matters, would prevent that Germany can stay independent of Russian gas, would take part in Trumps effort to force Ukraine into a very unfair and unstable peace that would slowly undermine Ukraine basis of existence. They would cheer Russia on, while they attack all of eastern europe, would stop every help for attacked Nato-allies, they would expose every military information that might help Russia, and would help them in every way possible, and if Germany one day might fall under Russian control again, they will fell the greatest joy in their hearts.

So no, a coalition containing the AFD is not in any way a solution to anything. Even if you are ready to overlook the racism, fascism, neoliberalism and all the other shit this party does: A government containing the AFD, especially at this moment, would be catastrophic -- it could be so severely catastrophic that Germany could be wiped of the map in the aftermath of it.

I know that this statement is rather drastic, but it is what it is. Trump wants to go back to imperialism, and Germany will soon go under if the defences are not up.

[Octavious]

But I wonder, Oct, if you have arguments in favour of your position, which seems to be (i) the AfD isn't that bad and (ii) even if they are bad, their badness would be moderated by being made a part of the governing coalition.

When you have a party of protest, which the AFD is, life is easy for them. They can say whatever they like, make up whatever policies take their fancy, and because they never have power they are never shown to be wrong. In the UK Reform is benefiting massively from never having to have made a difficult decision in their lives. It allows them to look extremely principled and honest because they have never had to make a compromise. They have never had to do difficult politics. The Lib Dems were in a similar position back before 2010, and then found themselves in a coalition government. They did well, but had to compromise on a major policy commitment with tuition fees and spent a lot of political capital on arranging a referendum for a change in the voting system which was easily defeated. But despite their genuine achievements they were tarnished by having to do real politics. The myth that their voters believed had been destroyed, and their support fell off a cliff. I firmly believe that politics works better when all parties are stripped of their idealistic mythology.

And truth be told I'm getting tired of being told that Party X is far right and the world will go to hell in a handcart if they're elected... Because every single time that has turned out not to be the case. Italy has not descended into evil. The east of Europe has not become Mordor. The "far right" parties achieve power and are either not very good and are quickly voted out, or they tend to be rather dull and ordinary. I guess I've heard the cry of wolf a few too many times in recent years.

[Klaus klauts]

The main problem is not, that the AFD is far right, or that they have a completely different political view then me, but that they are filthy traitors.
You are misunderstanding the situation.

[Esquire Bertissimmo]

I guess I've heard the cry of wolf a few too many times in recent years.

The left media indeed cries wolf too often re: the "far right". That does not, however, mean there are no genuine baddies out there. It seems to me you have to just ignore what the left media says and instead try to form an opinion based on the proposed policies and rhetoric of the party in question - if you do this earnestly with the AfD I suspect you'd find they are indeed beyond the pale. UKIP is the wrong analogy.

[Octavious]

I guess I've heard the cry of wolf a few too many times in recent years.

The left media indeed cries wolf too often re: the "far right". That does not, however, mean there are no genuine baddies out there. It seems to me you have to just ignore what the left media says and instead try to form an opinion based on the proposed policies and rhetoric of the party in question - if you do this earnestly with the AfD I suspect you'd find they are indeed beyond the pale. UKIP is the wrong analogy.

You seem to be a way off my thought process here. I never mentioned the left media. Cries of far right are symptomatic of the media in general.

Also, what have UKIP got to do with anything? They were a single issue protest party that achieved their goal and wound up. Reform have aspirations of long-term political power. Neither were/are far right. Reform, like the Lib Dems before them, were mentioned purely because they have/had not been measured against their performance in government and as such have/had a lot of support from people who would leave them after facing the realities of power.

So what are their policies that mark them out as beyond the pale?

[Esquire Bertissimmo]

The AfD is not just proposing cutting back on new immigrants. In November 2023, AfD politicians discussed on a "master plan" for the deportation of millions of individuals with migration backgrounds, including proposals to deport asylum seekers, residents with temporary protection, and even *naturalized citizens* deemed "unassimilated." That's beyond the pale.

The AfD is not merely just skeptical of the merits of endless support for Ukraine. Investigations have revealed that the AfD has maintained connections with Russian organizations aiming to influence European politics. In February 2023, reports indicated that the AfD was a key ally of the International Agency for Current Policy, a group established by Russian parliamentary staff. Senior AfD members have visited Russian-occupied Crimea, legitimizing Russia's actions. That's beyond the pale.

The AfD is not just tarred as "fascist" because they're conservative. In a 2017 speech in Dresden, senior AfD member Höcke referred to Berlin's Holocaust Memorial as a "monument of shame," suggesting that Germans need to make a "180-degree change" in their approach to historical remembrance. Höcke has been fined multiple times for using slogans associated with the Nazi regime. The German domestic intelligence agency (BfV) has classified the AfD’s youth wing and regional branches in Thuringia, Saxony, and Saxony-Anhalt as confirmed extremist organizations, citing their anti-democratic and racist ideologies. That's beyond the pale.

Germans are welcome to vote for the AfD and clearly many have. But there are many, many, many good reasons why even other right-leaning parties aren't eager to form a coalition government with these morons.

[Octavious]

The AfD is not just proposing cutting back on new immigrants. In November 2023, AfD politicians discussed on a "master plan" for the deportation of millions of individuals with migration backgrounds, including proposals to deport asylum seekers, residents with temporary protection, and even *naturalized citizens* deemed "unassimilated." That's beyond the pale

I'm assuming that what you mean by "politicians discussed" is that this didn't become AFD policy and never made it anywhere near an AFD manifesto? I'm not going to get excited by a few politicians of unspecified rank engaging in blue sky thinking.

The AfD is not merely just skeptical of the merits of endless support for Ukraine. Investigations have revealed that the AfD has maintained connections with Russian organizations aiming to influence European politics. In February 2023, reports indicated that the AfD was a key ally of the International Agency for Current Policy, a group established by Russian parliamentary staff. Senior AfD members have visited Russian-occupied Crimea, legitimizing Russia's actions. That's beyond the pale.

I disagree. If they have committed a crime those criminals should be prosecuted. If all they have done is tried to maintain relations with Russia this isn't anywhere near the pale.

The AfD is not just tarred as "fascist" because they're conservative. In a 2017 speech in Dresden, senior AfD member Höcke referred to Berlin's Holocaust Memorial as a "monument of shame,"

That is quite literally what it is, isn't it?

The German domestic intelligence agency (BfV) has classified the AfD’s youth wing and regional branches in Thuringia, Saxony, and Saxony-Anhalt as confirmed extremist organizations, citing their anti-democratic and racist ideologies. That's beyond the pale.

That does seem genuinely concerning on the face of it. If we assume that the BfV is playing with a straight bat (and there's no reason to think otherwise) then they seem to have a genuine problem in some locations. Presumably, however, they have other regional branches where the BfD are satisfied that everything is being run fine? I genuinely don't know, so it's probably worth finding out whether the AFD youth wing is rotten to the core, or whether it is generally decent with a few bad apples.

[Esquire Bertissimmo]

You're totally welcome to apply your "nothing is ever as bad as it seems" worldview to the AfD. Some of your points strike me as nearing the pale themselves lol, but I don't know if it's useful to debate your unusual permissiveness when it comes to all things Nazi. I expect most Germans would agree with me in thinking their remembrance of WW2 should be overwhelming coloured by shame and a "never again" attitude.

But the reasons Klaus and I laid out above should make it clear what makes the AfD quite different from most right-leaning parties in other Western democracies and why many in Germany are deeply reluctant to embrace the AfD.

[Octavious]

But, for clarity, they don't have any actual policies that you consider to be beyond the pale? There are no far right manifesto pledges?