MAFIA 92 - The return of the Witchfinder General [GAME THREAD]

[kingofthepirates]

I dont think we should be voting possible bussers anyway given bunnys death. They probably feel safe killing into the pool of us dip voters and we should force them to do so.

Are you saying we should not vote for people who were on Dip's wagon?

hi ik it's random to drop The Wall (balatro reference) after lurking for um a damn good while, but I've been vaguely following along with nothing to do cus my brain is totally fried rn but I've decided to iso dip specifically looking for interactions with this subset of people (this following post was prompted by the above discussion bit):

1. dip-N/A
2. Demon-dip had relatively consistent scumread on demon throughout EVERYTHING, and yet it seems mainly pushed them as a lurker candidate. idt demon is scum here, it just doesn't look like a proper bus.
3. bozo-post 513 is weird, idk what that means for first interaction. votes for lurking, and yet in the 1191 'reads list' seems to put them pretty high up, above null line on town side. And a few posts later (1262) immediately calls them out for lurking and being scummy. Lots of weird things going on here, likely deserves its own read through
4. food-not much tbh... a town read D2 is basically it, calls out food wagon for having "shitty reasons". Buddying? or scum partner? unclear rn. the 'forgot' on the readlist leans away from the latter though.
5. mimi-almost no interaction of substance, and yet kept close to the top of town during readlist (just outside proper town tier, and highest above null line). purpose unclear, but if maf this might be the place to hide (could be vec or bozo cus similar placement).
6. ND-dip votes ND very close to EOD1 (17 mins out), for 'info', and ties ND into the lead with 4. called out by bunny later, claims to want discussion and meaningful votes, probably just trying to weasel out a self preservation vote imo. changes his tune D2 and outright scumreads ND. it feels a bit opportunistic imo, idt it's a bus.


idk who I'm gonna vote for rn, maybe after reading bozo I get more...

[brainbomb]

##Vote mimi

I like this better than will and I think I deserve to live and keep solving. May as well generate dialogue here. No offense mimi, but you keep floating my name out there and I could see it as chainsawwing

[worcej]

##Vote mimi

I like this better than will and I think I deserve to live and keep solving. May as well generate dialogue here. No offense mimi, but you keep floating my name out there and I could see it as chainsawwing

This post is gross to me because idk why you feel you "deserve" to live

[brainbomb]

##Vote mimi

I like this better than will and I think I deserve to live and keep solving. May as well generate dialogue here. No offense mimi, but you keep floating my name out there and I could see it as chainsawwing

This post is gross to me because idk why you feel you "deserve" to live

Because I killed scum and id like to keep doing what I like to do

[brainbomb]

It would be gross to do it with minutes left and not even give her a chance to speak

[miminena]

##Vote mimi

I like this better than will and I think I deserve to live and keep solving. May as well generate dialogue here. No offense mimi, but you keep floating my name out there and I could see it as chainsawwing

i also think you deserve to live and keep solving, that's why i was so hesitant to vote you. it's the cognitive dissonance between the fact that I like your posting but also that logically everything seems to point to you. ultimately my gut follows the scum read rather than the town read, and i'm trying to trust my gut a bit more.

(also, what's chainsawing?)

[brainbomb]

Refers to a player (X) defending another player (Y) by attacking the player or players (Z) who had been accusing X

Maybe not what youre doing but you did it when I voted food early game and I think even after dip died it was like you wanted me to be mafia for voting him.

[brainbomb]

The term doesnt matter im more referring also to the fact that my posts are irrelevant to your opinion.

[brainbomb]

Gonna go shovel the driveway and unbury us from winters wrath. Its cold as shit too -27 tonight.

[foodcoats]

I was just thinking about how ghug’s attacks on bozo felt so unconvincing, and maybe that’s scum bussing. Is there a world of Dip, ghug, and bozo team? I really feel like bozo is doing a great job for town but then it’s easy to look town in broad strokes. It’s those little details.

…although, I also guess Dip looked broadly scummy. I don’t have good instincts for it. But ghug seems… off, right? And I think ghug is the type who could make his voting look alright as scum…

[DemonRHK]

To be clear, while I still have somewhat of a scumread on ghug, and I do feel like a ghug scum flip makes brain look terrible, I will not vote him today, and would likely vote to save him.

This game is low activity, and brain's brand of concentrated lunacy keeps a conversation going so the game doesn't turn into two pages a day.

I think mimi is a good kill currently. South of that I would be ok with ghug, food, and spirit.

[ND]

Brain, you asked me a question a few pages back. Essentially, 'how do I define potential vs possibility' and it is referencing suspects that I had in my EoN#2 post.

I basically have two theories of the game that somewhat work in conjunction. This should answer your question.

Theory #1: Elements of the scumteam or an element of the scumteam was setting up a bus on Dip&War D1. This individual was present EOD#1.

RHK and Dip&War have a notable interaction where Dip&War aggressively responds to his vote on him at around the 20 minute window or so -twice.

There are some direct replies and aggressive pull quotes he does with Will around the same time.

Thereafter Dip&War adopts an argumentative line: you are late so you are scum and applies it to other people such as Vecna.

If RHK or Will are scum then it makes a lot of sense for Dip&War to react to their votes or entrance into the game at the EOD aggressively. He is pissed they are bussing him and doesn't know how to react to that so it is a slip. He then carries that over zealous attitude towards everyone else to dilute the initial moment of aggression.

Speculative. It makes a lot of sense for an element of the scum team to join the wagon on Worcej. It's a quick wagon that formed in the last ten minutes. Motivations don't have to be strongly stated. No cases have to be made. It's an easy thing and a way to coast through D1. I believe that there is a strong possibility that another element of the scum team was on the Worcej wagon in addition to Dip&War.
-Ghug was a null for quite a while for me. While the potential exists for him to be scum, I doubt it. His reluctance to engage in the game was questionable. He has done some stuff since to tick the, 'he is probably not the guy' feeling for me.
-The other option is Brain. Brain did, after all, float the idea of starting a Worcej wagon. Others took the bait. Scum can hide in data from past games and meta analysis. Still, due to other actions D2 I find the potential that Brain is scum to be on the lower end, but not impossible. Nothing can be ruled out until it can be ruled out, but I would still rate him as a town lean at the moment.
-If you rule out ghug or Brain then you are left with RHK and Will as a possible element or elements of the team on Dip&War which corresponds to Dip&War's initial aggressive posture at the sub 20 minute mark.
-It should also be noted that RHK didn't vote for Dip&War D2.

Theory #2: An element of the scumteam was disengaged EOD#1.

The possibility exists that an element of the scumteam was disengaged or not really present the last two hours of the phase.

This theory doesn't make theory #1 false as I rate the possibility of RHK or Will being scum very high, but that doesn't mean they both are.

If there was only one other scum member on the Worcej wagon then we are missing a guy.

Very likely this person stopped engaging prior to Dip&War really being a leading wagon. The people I am about to highlight all stopped posting when I was the leading wagon prior to count 1.8.

-Bunny. Obviously it wasn't him.

-KingofPirates. His vote on Red was on Page 34 (and he had voted Red prior I believe) and he was absent EOD1 with his last vote a full four hours before the phase change.

-Food. His vote for Red was on page 36. His vote is about an hour and some change before phase change. He doesn't interact further.
a) Should be noted that he doesn't vote for Dip&War D2.

-Spirit. His vote for Red was on page 37. His vote is also about an hour or so before phase change. He doesn't interact further.

They put some fuel on a non Dip&War wagon and vanish. If there is an element of the team who wasn't present then it's one of them.

[ND]

Anyway, as for the state of the wagons

-I doubt that Mimi is scum more so than I doubt Brainbomb is scum. I wouldn't vote for either.

-I am going to return to my RHK vote from D2 after considering all of this a bit more although I would vote for either of Will-RHK and possibly Food today.

##Vote DemonRHK

[ND]

Now I am going to go back to sitting in the dark next to an electric heater with my cat and contemplating the universe. Peace out.

[brainbomb]

-The other option is Brain. Brain did, after all, float the idea of starting a Worcej wagon. Others took the bait.

This is where it started



This is how it grew



This is where it launched off


And Red died. But that was a very strange analysis ND, which left out alot but also didnt really try to make a case against me anyway

[DemonRHK]

ND does make a solid case. It's wrong, but it's good. I fully admit my D1 looks really bad.

As I said, I've been trying not to base too much of my gameview off of a single read. I really felt like I was tunneling. Turns out I was just right, but didn't commit to it. I've always been one to try to have as many viable wagons as possible, you get more info that way at EoDs, and the only thing I think I am good at is retrospective mech and vote analysis.

Ngl, part of me wants y'all to vote me out so I can make a politically-charged joke about ND shifting blame to a completely unrelated party.

[DemonRHK]

Also, Dip switches to ND to make it a 4/4/4 on D1 instead a 5/4 with a town in the lead. I don't see a realistic world where ND is mafia.

3P is always possible, but I'm not sure we are at that point yet, let the scum hunt the 3P for now.

[ND]

I retract my point, I suppose it wasn't you who initially floated it. Although like I said, even if you had -you still aren't a high possibility for me, but the potential can't be ruled out yet.

It really comes down to Will or RHK as the two best possibilities for me.

[ND]

As for RHK - I see your reply, but this really comes down to Dip&War's interactions with you and what I read as a frustrated and angry Dip&War specifically directing that ire towards you and to Will to a certain extent then your final votes.

ofc one of the ways this entire theory breaks down is if Worcej (for example) is scum and just has the biggest balls ever. If so then I tip my hat to Worcej because what a chad.

[DemonRHK]

As for RHK - I see your reply, but this really comes down to Dip&War's interactions with you and what I read as a frustrated and angry Dip&War specifically directing that ire towards you and to Will to a certain extent then your final votes.

ofc one of the ways this entire theory breaks down is if Worcej (for example) is scum and just has the biggest balls ever. If so then I tip my hat to Worcej because what a chad.

Just so I am not misunderstanding, you're line of thinking is primarily based on Dip being angry at me for bussing and believing I am so unskilled to let it go down as such?